A proportional incidence rate model for aggregated data to study the vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 hospital and ICU admissions.

We develop a proportional incidence model that estimates vaccine effectiveness (VE) at the population level using conditional likelihood for aggregated data. Our model assumes that the population counts of clinical outcomes for an infectious disease arise from a superposition of Poisson processes with different vaccination statuses. The intensity function in the model is calculated as the product of per capita incidence rate and the at-risk population size, both of which are time-dependent. We formulate a log-linear regression model with respect to the relative risk, defined as the ratio between the per capita incidence rates of vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. In the regression analysis, we treat the baseline incidence rate as a nuisance parameter, similar to the Cox proportional hazard model in survival analysis. We then apply the proposed models and methods to age-stratified weekly counts of COVID-19-related hospital and ICU admissions among adults in Ontario, Canada. The data spanned from 2021 to February 2022, encompassing the Omicron era and the rollout of booster vaccine doses. We also discuss the limitations and confounding effects while advocating for the necessity of more comprehensive and up-to-date individual-level data that document the clinical outcomes and measure potential confounders.

LASSO type penalized spline regression for binary data.

BACKGROUND: Generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs), typically used for analyzing correlated data, can also be used for smoothing by considering the knot coefficients from a regression spline as random effects. The resulting models are called semiparametric mixed models (SPMMs). Allowing the random knot coefficients to follow a normal distribution with mean zero and a constant variance is equivalent to using a penalized spline with a ridge regression type penalty. We introduce the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) type penalty in the SPMM setting by considering the coefficients at the knots to follow a Laplace double exponential distribution with mean zero. METHODS: We adopt a Bayesian approach and use the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for model fitting. Through simulations, we compare the performance of curve fitting in a SPMM using a LASSO type penalty to that of using ridge penalty for binary data. We apply the proposed method to obtain smooth curves from data on the relationship between the amount of pack years of smoking and the risk of developing chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). RESULTS: The LASSO penalty performs as well as ridge penalty for simple shapes of association and outperforms the ridge penalty when the shape of association is complex or linear. CONCLUSION: We demonstrated that LASSO penalty captured complex dose-response association better than the Ridge penalty in a SPMM.

Modeling perinatal mortality in twins via generalized additive mixed models: a comparison of estimation approaches.

BACKGROUND: The analysis of twin data presents a unique challenge. Second-born twins on average weigh less than first-born twins and have an elevated risk of perinatal mortality. It is not clear whether the risk difference depends on birth order or their relative birth weight. This study evaluates the association between birth order and perinatal mortality by birth order-specific weight difference in twin pregnancies. METHODS: We adopt generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) which are a flexible version of generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs), to model the association. Estimation of such models for correlated binary data is challenging. We compare both Bayesian and likelihood-based approaches for estimating GAMMs via simulation. We apply the methods to the US matched multiple birth data to evaluate the association between twins' birth order and perinatal mortality. RESULTS: Perinatal mortality depends on both birth order and relative birthweight. Simulation results suggest that the Bayesian method with half-Cauchy priors for variance components performs well in estimating all components of the GAMM. The Bayesian results were sensitive to prior specifications. CONCLUSION: We adopted a flexible statistical model, GAMM, to precisely estimate the perinatal mortality risk differences between first- and second-born twins whereby birthweight and gestational age are nonparametrically modelled to explicitly adjust for their effects. The risk of perinatal mortality in twins was found to depend on both birth order and relative birthweight. We demonstrated that the Bayesian method estimated the GAMM model components more reliably than the frequentist approaches.

A semi-parametric mixed model for short-term projection of daily COVID-19 incidence in Canada.

During a pandemic, data are very "noisy" with enormous amounts of local variation in daily counts, compared with any rapid changes in trend. Accurately characterizing the trends and reliable predictions on future trajectories are important for planning and public situation awareness. We describe a semi-parametric statistical model that is used for short-term predictions of daily counts of cases and deaths due to COVID-19 in Canada, which are routinely disseminated to the public by Public Health Agency of Canada. The main focus of the paper is the presentation of the model. Performance indicators of our model are defined and then evaluated through extensive sensitivity analyses. We also compare our model with other commonly used models such as generalizations of logistic models for similar purposes. The proposed model is shown to describe the historical trend very well with excellent ability to predict the short-term trajectory.

Impact of acute stress on psychomotor bimanual performance during a simulated tumor resection task.

OBJECTIVE Severe bleeding during neurosurgical operations can result in acute stress affecting the bimanual psychomotor performance of the operator, leading to surgical error and an adverse patient outcome. Objective methods to assess the influence of acute stress on neurosurgical bimanual psychomotor performance have not been developed. Virtual reality simulators, such as NeuroTouch, allow the testing of acute stress on psychomotor performance in risk-free environments. Thus, the purpose of this study was to explore the impact of a simulated stressful virtual reality tumor resection scenario by utilizing NeuroTouch to answer 2 questions: 1) What is the impact of acute stress on bimanual psychomotor performance during the resection of simulated tumors? 2) Does acute stress influence bimanual psychomotor performance immediately following the stressful episode? METHODS Study participants included 6 neurosurgeons, 6 senior and 6 junior neurosurgical residents, and 6 medical students. Participants resected a total of 6 simulated tumors, 1 of which (Tumor 4) involved uncontrollable "intraoperative" bleeding resulting in simulated cardiac arrest and thus providing the acute stress scenario. Tier 1 metrics included extent of blood loss, percentage of tumor resected, and "normal" brain tissue volume removed. Tier 2 metrics included simulated suction device (sucker) and ultrasonic aspirator total tip path length, as well as the sum and maximum forces applied in using these instruments. Advanced Tier 2 metrics included efficiency index, coordination index, ultrasonic aspirator path length index, and ultrasonic aspirator bimanual forces ratio. All metrics were assessed before, during, and after the stressful scenario. RESULTS The stress scenario caused expected significant increases in blood loss in all participant groups. Extent of tumor resected and brain volume removed decreased in the junior resident and medical student groups. Sucker total tip path length increased in the neurosurgeon group, whereas sucker forces increased in the senior resident group. Psychomotor performance on advanced Tier 2 metrics was altered during the stress scenario in all participant groups. Performance on all advanced Tier 2 metrics returned to pre-stress levels in the post-stress scenario tumor resections. CONCLUSIONS Results demonstrated that acute stress initiated by simulated severe intraoperative bleeding significantly decreases bimanual psychomotor performance during the acute stressful episode. The simulated intraoperative bleeding event had no significant influence on the advanced Tier 2 metrics monitored during the immediate post-stress operative performance.

Effect of Smoothing in Generalized Linear Mixed Models on the Estimation of Covariance Parameters for Longitudinal Data.

Besides being mainly used for analyzing clustered or longitudinal data, generalized linear mixed models can also be used for smoothing via restricting changes in the fit at the knots in regression splines. The resulting models are usually called semiparametric mixed models (SPMMs). We investigate the effect of smoothing using SPMMs on the correlation and variance parameter estimates for serially correlated longitudinal normal, Poisson and binary data. Through simulations, we compare the performance of SPMMs to other simpler methods for estimating the nonlinear association such as fractional polynomials, and using a parametric nonlinear function. Simulation results suggest that, in general, the SPMMs recover the true curves very well and yield reasonable estimates of the correlation and variance parameters. However, for binary outcomes, SPMMs produce biased estimates of the variance parameters for high serially correlated data. We apply these methods to a dataset investigating the association between CD4 cell count and time since seroconversion for HIV infected men enrolled in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study.