Clinico-pathological nomogram for predicting BRAF mutational status of metastatic colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: In metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC), BRAFV600E mutation has been variously associated to specific clinico-pathological features. METHODS: Two large retrospective series of mCRC patients from two Italian Institutions were used as training-set (TS) and validation-set (VS) for developing a nomogram predictive of BRAFV600E status. The model was internally and externally validated. RESULTS: In the TS, data from 596 mCRC patients were gathered (RAS wild-type (wt) 281 (47.1%); BRAFV600E mutated 54 (9.1%)); RAS and BRAFV600E mutations were mutually exclusive. In the RAS-wt population, right-sided primary (odds ratio (OR): 7.80, 95% confidence interval (CI) 3.05-19.92), female gender (OR: 2.90, 95% CI 1.14-7.37) and mucinous histology (OR: 4.95, 95% CI 1.90-12.90) were independent predictors of BRAFV600E mutation, with high replication at internal validation (100%, 93% and 98%, respectively). A predictive nomogram was calculated: patients with the highest score (right-sided primary, female and mucinous) had a 81% chance to bear a BRAFV600E-mutant tumour; accuracy measures: AUC=0.812, SE:0.034, sensitivity:81.2%; specificity:72.1%. In the VS (508 pts, RAS wt: 262 (51.6%), BRAFV600E mutated: 49 (9.6%)), right-sided primary, female gender and mucinous histology were confirmed as independent predictors of BRAFV600E mutation with high accuracy. CONCLUSIONS: Three simple and easy-to-collect characteristics define a useful nomogram for predicting BRAF status in mCRC with high specificity and sensitivity.

Biomarker dynamics affecting neoadjuvant therapy response and outcome of HER2-positive breast cancer subtype.

HER2+ breast cancer (BC) is an aggressive subtype genetically and biologically heterogeneous. We evaluate the predictive and prognostic role of HER2 protein/gene expression levels combined with clinico-pathologic features in 154 HER2+ BCs patients who received trastuzumab-based neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT). The tumoral pathological complete response (pCR) rate was 40.9%. High tumoral pCR show a scarce mortality rate vs subjects with a lower response. 93.7% of ypT0 were HER2 IHC3+ BC, 6.3% were HER2 IHC 2+/SISH+ and 86.7% of ypN0 were HER2 IHC3+, the remaining were HER2 IHC2+/SISH+. Better pCR rate correlate with a high percentage of infiltrating immune cells and right-sided tumors, that reduce distant metastasis and improve survival, but no incidence difference. HER2 IHC score and laterality emerge as strong predictors of tumoral pCR after NACT from machine learning analysis. HER2 IHC3+ and G3 are poor prognostic factors for HER2+ BC patients, and could be considered in the application of neoadjuvant therapy. Increasing TILs concentrations, lower lymph node ratio and lower residual tumor cellularity are associated with a better outcome. The immune microenvironment and scarce lymph node involvement have crucial role in clinical outcomes. The combination of all predictors might offer new options for NACT effectiveness prediction and stratification of HER2+ BC during clinical decision-making.