The potential of current- and wind-driven transport for environmental management of the Baltic Sea.

The ever increasing impact of the marine industry and transport on vulnerable sea areas puts the marine environment under exceptional pressure and calls for inspired methods for mitigating the impact of the related risks. We describe a method for preventive reduction of remote environmental risks caused by the shipping and maritime industry that are transported by surface currents and wind impact to the coasts. This method is based on characterizing systematically the damaging potential of the offshore areas in terms of potential transport to vulnerable regions of an oil spill or other pollution that has occurred in a particular area. The resulting maps of probabilities of pollution to be transported to the nearshore and the time it takes for the pollution to reach the nearshore are used to design environmentally optimized fairways for the Gulf of Finland, Baltic Proper, and south-western Baltic Sea.

Recent changes in trophic state of the Baltic Sea along SW coast of Finland.

Drawing reliable conclusions on changes in the trophic state of various subareas of the Baltic Sea is problematic, in large part because the monitoring of productivity parameters exhibiting high natural variability is based on sparse sampling. This emphasizes the importance of long-term data sets. Here we present a 30-year chlorophyll alpha data set from the western Gulf of Finland. The trophic state of the study area showed an increasing trend in the 1970s and 1980s manifested mainly as strengthened vernal blooms. This trend did not continue in the 1990s, and the seasonal phytoplankton biomass maxima since then has begun to show some bias toward the late summer. The changes in seasonal maxima of phytoplankton blooms probably reflect i) decreased availability of N suppressing the magnitude of the vernal bloom, which increases the P reserves for the summer, and ii) enhanced internal P loading, which further increases the summer P reserves.

The use of Lagrangian trajectories for the identification of the environmentally safe fairways.

We propose and test a method for the optimisation of marine fairways to minimise the risk to high-value areas, based on statistical analysis of Lagrangian trajectories of current-driven pollution transport. The offshore areas are quantified according to the probability of pollution released in these areas to reach vulnerable regions. The method contains an eddy-resolving circulation model, a scheme for tracking of Lagrangian trajectories, a technique for the calculation of quantities characterising the potential of different sea areas to supply adverse impacts, and routines to construct the optimum fairway. The gain is expressed in terms of the probability of pollution transport to the nearshore and the associated time (particle age). The use of the optimum fairway would decrease the probability of coastal pollution by 40% or increase the average time of reaching the pollution to the coast from 5.3 to about 9 days in the Gulf of Finland, the Baltic Sea.