Comparing the Performance of Three Models Incorporating Weather Data to Forecast Dengue Epidemics in Reunion Island, 2018-2019.

We developed mathematical models to analyze a large dengue virus (DENV) epidemic in Reunion Island in 2018-2019. Our models captured major drivers of uncertainty including the complex relationship between climate and DENV transmission, temperature trends, and underreporting. Early assessment correctly concluded that persistence of DENV transmission during the austral winter 2018 was likely and that the second epidemic wave would be larger than the first one. From November 2018, the detection probability was estimated at 10%-20% and, for this range of values, our projections were found to be remarkably accurate. Overall, we estimated that 8% and 18% of the population were infected during the first and second wave, respectively. Out of the 3 models considered, the best-fitting one was calibrated to laboratory entomological data, and accounted for temperature but not precipitation. This study showcases the contribution of modeling to strengthen risk assessments and planning of national and local authorities.

Nosocomial Malaria Transmissions Resolved by Genomic Analyses-A Retrospective Case Report Study in France: 2007-2021.

BACKGROUND: Exposure of blood to malaria parasites can lead to infection even in the absence of the mosquito vector. During a stay in a healthcare facility, accidental inoculation of the skin with blood from a malaria patient might occur, referred to as nosocomial malaria. METHODS: Between 2007 and 2021, we identified 6 autochthonous malaria cases that occurred in different French hospitals, originating from nosocomial transmission and imported malaria cases being the infection source. Four cases were observed during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. The genetic relatedness between source and nosocomial infections was evaluated by genome-wide short tandem repeats (STRs) and single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). RESULTS: None of the patients with autochthonous malaria had travel history to an endemic area nor had been transfused. For each case, both the source and recipient patients stayed a few hours in the same ward. After diagnosis, autochthonous cases were treated with antimalarials and all recovered except 1. Genetically, each pair of matched source/nosocomial parasite infections showed <1% of different STRs and <6.9% (<1.5% for monoclonal infections) of different SNPs. Similar levels of genetic differences were obtained for parasite DNA samples that were independently sequenced twice as references of identical infections. Parasite phylogenomics were consistent with travel information reported by the source patients. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrates that genomics analyses may resolve nosocomial malaria transmissions, despite the uncertainty regarding the modes of contamination. Nosocomial transmission of potentially life-threatening parasites should be taken into consideration in settings or occasions where compliance with universal precautions is not rigorous.

Arthropod-borne diseases among travellers arriving in Europe from Africa, 2015 to 2019.

BackgroundTravellers are generally considered good sentinels for infectious disease surveillance.AimTo investigate whether health data from travellers arriving from Africa to Europe could provide evidence to support surveillance systems in Africa.MethodsWe examined disease occurrence and estimated risk of infection among travellers arriving from Africa to Europe from 2015 to 2019 using surveillance data of arthropod-borne disease cases collected through The European Surveillance System (TESSy) and flight passenger volumes from the International Air Transport Association.ResultsMalaria was the most common arthropod-borne disease reported among travellers from Africa, with 34,235 cases. The malaria travellers' infection rate (TIR) was 28.8 cases per 100,000 travellers, which is 36 and 144 times higher than the TIR for dengue and chikungunya, respectively. The malaria TIR was highest among travellers arriving from Central and Western Africa. There were 956 and 161 diagnosed imported cases of dengue and chikungunya, respectively. The highest TIR was among travellers arriving from Central, Eastern and Western Africa for dengue and from Central Africa for chikungunya in this period. Limited numbers of cases of Zika virus disease, West Nile virus infection, Rift Valley fever and yellow fever were reported.ConclusionsDespite some limitations, travellers' health data can efficiently complement local surveillance data in Africa, particularly when the country or region has a sub-optimal surveillance system. The sharing of anonymised traveller health data between regions/continents should be encouraged.

A cluster of autochthonous dengue transmission in the Paris region - detection, epidemiology and control measures, France, October 2023.

A cluster of three confirmed autochthonous dengue cases was detected in October 2023 in the Val-de-Marne department neighbouring Paris, France. This marks the northernmost transmission of dengue in Europe reported to date. The epidemiological and microbiological investigations and the vector control measures are described. This event confirms the need for early case detection and response to contain dengue in Europe, especially given the 2024 Summer Olympic and Paralympic Games, when millions of visitors will visit the Greater Paris area.

Autochthonous dengue in mainland France, 2022: geographical extension and incidence increase.

France faced an unusual situation of dengue transmission in 2022, with 65 autochthonous cases spread over nine transmission events by 21 October. This exceeded the number of cases observed during the entire period 2010 to 2021. Six of these events occurred in departments that had never experienced autochthonous dengue transmission. We provide an update of dengue surveillance data in mainland France in 2022. The multiplication of transmission events calls for continuous adaption of preparedness and response to arbovirus-related risks.

Rift Valley Fever Outbreak, Mayotte, France, 2018-2019.

From November 2018 through July 2019, an outbreak of Rift Valley fever in humans occurred in Mayotte, France; 142 cases were confirmed. Exposure to animals or their biological fluid was reported by 73% of patients. Health authorities have been implementing control measures, including veterinary surveys, vector control interventions, and prevention measures.

Mortality from malaria in France, 2005 to 2014.

IntroductionMalaria is a notifiable disease in all European Union and European Economic Area countries except Belgium and France, where only autochthonous malaria is notifiable. Although morbidity caused by malaria has been assessed, little is known about mortality incidence.ObjectiveOur aim was to estimate the number of imported malaria-related deaths in hospital in metropolitan France.MethodsWe matched individual deaths reported between 1 January 2005 and 31 December 2014 to the French National Reference Centre for malaria (FNRCm) with malaria-related deaths from two other sources: the French National Registry on medical causes of death and the French national hospital discharge database. A capture-recapture method with log-linear modelling was used. Age, sex and place of death stratification were applied to remove heterogeneity.ResultsThe estimated malaria-related deaths in metropolitan France during the study period were 205 (95% confidence interval (CI): 191-219). The annual mean number of malaria-related deaths was estimated at 21 (95% CI: 19-22). The FNRCm malaria-related deaths surveillance had a 38% sensitivity (95% CI: 32-44). Among 161 in-hospital individual malaria-related deaths reported from three data sources, the sex ratio (male to female) was 2.6. Median age of the patients was 57 years, ranging from 1 to 89 years.ConclusionThe pertinent finding of this report is that malaria-related death records were significantly less complete [corrected] than case records. Therefore, data comparison of imported malaria morbidity and mortality between countries should imperatively be assessed using standard indicators weighted according to the completeness of health surveillance systems.

Vector-borne transmission of Zika virus in Europe, southern France, August 2019.

On 1 October 2019, a locally-acquired Zika virus disease case was laboratory confirmed in Hyères, Var department. Active case finding identified two additional locally-acquired cases living within 90 m, with symptom onset 8 days before the index case. Extensive patient interviews did not yield information supporting transmission through sexual contact or substances of human origin. Vector-borne transmission by local Aedes albopictus mosquitoes is the most likely mode of transmission. Here we describe the public health response.

Persistence of schistosomal transmission linked to the Cavu river in southern Corsica since 2013.

Seven cases of urogenital schistosomiasis occurred in Corsica in 2015 and 2016. The episodes were related to exposure to the same river and involved the same parasite strain as an outbreak with 106 cases in summer 2013. The connection calls for further investigations on the presence of an animal reservoir and the survival of infested snails during winter. However, recontamination of the river from previously infected bathers remains the most likely hypothesis.

Dengue serosurvey after a 2-month long outbreak in Nîmes, France, 2015: was there more than met the eye?

BackgroundClusters of dengue cases have recently become more frequent in areas of southern France colonised by the vector mosquito Aedes albopictus. In July 2015, a 2-month outbreak of dengue virus serotype 1 (DENV-1) was reported in Nîmes. Aim: We conducted a serosurvey in the affected area at the end of the vector activity period to determine the true extent of dengue transmission. Methods: We collected capillary blood from consenting household members, and information on their medical and travel histories, and exposure to mosquito bites. Recent infections were identified using IgM and IgG anti-DENV ELISA, followed, when positive, by plaque reduction neutralisation tests on serum against DENV 1-4 and West Nile virus. The prevalence estimator was calibrated on reference demographic data. We quantified the spatial clustering of dengue cases within the affected community and inferred the transmission tree. Results: The study participation rate was 39% (564/1,431). Three of 564 participants tested positive for DENV-1 infection (after marginal calibration, 0.41%; 95% confidence interval: 0.00-0.84). The spatial analysis showed that cases were clustered at the household level. Most participants perceived the presence of mosquitos as abundant (83%) and reported frequent mosquito bites (57%). We incidentally identified six past West Nile virus infections (0.9%; 95% CI: 0.2-1.6). Conclusion: This serosurvey confirms the potential for arboviral diseases to cause outbreaks - albeit limited for now - in France and Europe.

Real-Time Assessment of Health-Care Requirements During the Zika Virus Epidemic in Martinique.

The spread of Zika virus in the Americas has been associated with a surge in Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) cases. Given the severity of GBS, territories affected by Zika virus need to plan health-care resources to manage GBS patients. To inform such planning in Martinique, we analyzed Zika virus surveillance and GBS data from Martinique in real time with a modeling framework that captured dynamics of the Zika virus epidemic, the risk of GBS in Zika virus-infected persons, and the clinical management of GBS cases. We compared our estimates with those from the 2013-2014 Zika virus epidemic in French Polynesia. We were able to predict just a few weeks into the epidemic that, due to lower transmission potential and lower probability of developing GBS following infection in Martinique, the total number of GBS cases in Martinique would be substantially lower than suggested by simple extrapolations from French Polynesia. We correctly predicted that 8 intensive-care beds and 7 ventilators would be sufficient to treat GBS cases. This study showcased the contribution of modeling to inform local health-care planning during an outbreak. Timely studies that estimate the proportion of infected persons that seek care are needed to improve the predictive power of such approaches.

Preliminary report of an autochthonous chikungunya outbreak in France, July to September 2017.

In August 2017, an autochthonous chikungunya case was reported in south-east France. By mid-September, eight additional autochthonous cases were found in the index case's neighbourhood, where the chikungunya virus vector Aedes albopictus was observed. Genomic characterisation identified an East-Central South African (ECSA) lineage strain, probably from the Central African region and carrying an adaptive mutation facilitating transmission by Ae. albopictus. The event confirms we need early case detection and response to contain chikungunya in Europe.

Imported chikungunya cases in an area newly colonised by Aedes albopictus: mathematical assessment of the best public health strategy.

We aimed to identify the optimal strategy that should be used by public health authorities against transmission of chikungunya virus in mainland France. The theoretical model we developed, which mimics the current surveillance system, predicted that without vector control (VC), the probability of local transmission after introduction of viraemic patients was around 2%, and the number of autochthonous cases between five and 15 persons per hectare, depending on the number of imported cases. Compared with this baseline, we considered different strategies (VC after clinical suspicion of a case or after laboratory confirmation, for imported or autochthonous cases): Awaiting laboratory confirmation for suspected imported cases to implement VC had no significant impact on the epidemiological outcomes analysed, mainly because of the delay before entering into the surveillance system. However, waiting for laboratory confirmation of autochthonous cases before implementing VC resulted in more frequent outbreaks. After analysing the economic cost of such strategies, our study suggested implementing VC immediately after the notification of a suspected autochthonous case as the most efficient strategy in settings where local transmission has been proven. Nevertheless, we identified that decreasing reporting time for imported cases should remain a priority.

Autochthonous dengue outbreak in Nîmes, South of France, July to September 2015.

In August and September 2015, seven locally acquired cases of dengue virus type 1 (DENV-1) were detected in Nîmes, south of France, where Aedes albopictus has been established since 2011. Epidemiological and entomological investigations allowed to steer vector control measures to contain transmission. An imported case from French Polynesia with onset fever on 4 July was identified as primary case. This outbreak occurred from 8 August to 11 September in a 300 m radius area. Six sprayings to control mosquitos were performed in the affected area. We describe the first considerable dengue outbreak in mainland France where only sporadic cases of autochthonous dengue were recorded previously (2010, 2013 and 2014). The 69 day-period between the primary case and the last autochthonous case suggests multiple episodes of mosquito infections. The absence of notification of autochthonous cases during the month following the primary case's symptoms onset could be explained by the occurrence of inapparent illness. Recurrence of cases every year since 2013, the size of the 2015 outbreak and continuing expansion of areas with presence of Ae. albopictus highlight the threat of arboviral diseases in parts of Europe. Thus, European guidelines should be assessed and adjusted to the current context.

Zika emergence in the French Territories of America and description of first confirmed cases of Zika virus infection on Martinique, November 2015 to February 2016.

Following of the emergence of Zika virus in Brazil in 2015, an epidemiological surveillance system was quickly implemented in the French overseas Territories of America (FTA) according to previous experience with dengue and chikungunya and has detected first cases of Zika. General practitioners and medical microbiologists were invited to report all clinically suspected cases of Zika, laboratory investigations were systematically conducted (RT-PCR). On 18 December, the first autochthonous case of Zika virus infection was confirmed by RT-PCR on French Guiana and Martinique, indicating introduction of Zika virus in FTA. The viral circulation of Zika virus was then also confirmed on Guadeloupe and Saint-Martin. We report here early findings on 203 confirmed cases of Zika virus infection identified by RT-PCR or seroneutralisation on Martinique Island between 24 November 2015 and 20 January 2016. All cases were investigated. Common clinical signs were observed (maculopapular rash, arthralgia, fever, myalgia and conjunctival hyperaemia) among these patients, but the rash, the foundation of our case definition, may be absent in a significant proportion of patients (16%). These results are important for the implementation of a suspected case definition, the main tool for epidemiological surveillance, in territories that may be affected by ZIKV emergence, including Europe.

History of smallpox vaccination and marked clinical expression of mpox among cases notified in France from May to July 2022.

OBJECTIVES: The aim was to estimate the effect of reported history of smallpox vaccination prior to 1980 on clinical expression of mpox. METHODS: We included all confirmed mpox cases identified by the national mpox surveillance system in France between May and July 2022. Cases tested positive for monkeypox virus or orthopoxviruses by PCR. Cases were interviewed by phone using a questionnaire documenting demographics, symptoms and exposures. To estimate the effect of smallpox vaccination on the presence of marked mpox symptoms (association of fever, lymphadenopathy and extensive mucocutaneous lesions), we estimated prevalence ratios (PRs) and 95% CIs using Poisson regression models with robust standard errors. RESULTS: There were 1888 confirmed mpox cases with date of symptom onset between 7 May and 31 July 2022. Overall, 7% (93/1394) presented marked mpox symptoms. Among patients who provided information about their vaccination status, 14% (207/1469) reported smallpox vaccination prior to 1980. The proportion of cases with marked symptoms was 2% (3/170) among those reporting smallpox vaccination prior to 1980 and 8% (76/974) among those who reported no vaccination. The proportion of marked symptoms was four times lower among cases reporting previous smallpox vaccination than in cases reporting no vaccination (PR, 0.24; 95% CI: 0.08-0.76). There was no evidence of an effect of smallpox vaccination on development of complications (PR, 0.65; 95% CI: 0.35-1.22) or hospitalization due to mpox (PR, 0.64; 95% CI: 0.23-1.80). DISCUSSION: Our results suggest that smallpox vaccination during childhood attenuated the clinical expression of monkeypox virus infection, but there was no evidence of an effect on complications or hospitalization.

SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence and associated factors among primary healthcare workers in France after the third COVID-19 wave.

Data on the SARS-CoV-2 infection among primary health care workers (PHCWs) are scarce but essential to reflect on policy regarding prevention and control measures. We assessed the prevalence of PHCWs who have been infected by SARS-CoV-2 in comparison with modeling from the general population in metropolitan France, and associated factors. A cross-sectional study was conducted among general practitioners (GPs), pediatricians, dental and pharmacy workers in primary care between May and August 2021. Participants volunteered to provide a dried-blood spot for SARS-CoV-2 antibody assessment and completed a questionnaire. The primary outcome was defined as the detection of infection-induced antibodies (anti-nucleocapsid IgG, and for non-vaccinees: anti-Spike IgG and neutralizing antibodies) or previous self-reported infection (positive RT-qPCR or antigenic test, or positive ELISA test before vaccination). Estimates were adjusted using weights for representativeness and compared with prediction from the general population. Poisson regressions were used to quantify associated factors. The analysis included 1612 PHCWs. Weighted prevalences were: 31.7% (95% CI 27.5-36.0) for GPs, 28.7% (95% CI 24.4-33.0) for pediatricians, 25.2% (95% CI 20.6-31.0) for dentists, and 25.5% (95% CI 18.2-34.0) for pharmacists. Estimates were compatible with model predictions for the general population. PHCWs more likely to be infected were: GPs compared to pharmacist assistants (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR] = 2.26; CI 95% 1.01-5.07), those living in Île-de-France (aPR = 1.53; CI 95% 1.14-2.05), South-East (aPR = 1.57; CI 95% 1.19-2.08), North-East (aPR = 1.81; CI 95% 1.38-2.37), and those having an unprotected contact with a COVID-19 case within the household (aPR = 1.48; CI 95% 1.22-1.80). Occupational factors were not associated with infection. In conclusion, the risk of SARS-CoV-2 exposure for PHCWs was more likely to have occurred in the community rather than at their workplace.

Long lasting anti-IgG chikungunya seropositivity in the Mayotte population will not be enough to prevent future outbreaks: A seroprevalence study, 2019.

Chikungunya is an arboviral disease causing arthralgia which may develop into a debilitating chronic arthritis. In Mayotte, a French overseas department in the Indian Ocean, a chikungunya outbreak was reported in 2006, affecting a third of the population. We aimed at assessing the chikungunya seroprevalence in this population, after over a decade from that epidemic. A multi-stage cross sectional household-based study exploring socio-demographic factors, and knowledge and attitude towards mosquito-borne disease prevention was carried out in 2019. Blood samples from participants aged 15-69 years were taken for chikungunya IgG serological testing. We analyzed associations between chikungunya serological status and selected factors using Poisson regression models, and estimated weighted and adjusted prevalence ratios (w/a PR). The weighted seroprevalence of chikungunya was 34.75% (n = 2853). Seropositivity for IgG anti-chikungunya virus was found associated with living in Mamoudzou (w/a PR = 1.49, 95%CI: 1.21-1.83) and North (w/a PR = 1.41, 95%CI: 1.08-1.84) sectors, being born in the Comoros islands (w/a PR = 1.30, 95%CI: 1.03-1.61), being a student or unpaid trainee (w/a PR = 1.35, 95%CI: 1.01-1.81), living in precarious housing (w/a PR = 1.30, 95%CI: 1.02-1.67), accessing water streams for bathing (w/a PR = 1.72, 95%CI: 1.1-2.7) and knowing that malaria is a mosquito-borne disease (w/a PR = 1.42, 95%CI: 1.21-1.83). Seropositivity was found inversely associated with high education level (w/a PR = 0.50, 95%CI: 0.29-0.86) and living in households with access to running water and toilets (w/a PR = 0.64, 95%CI: 0.51-0.80) (n = 1438). Our results indicate a long-lasting immunity from chikungunya exposure. However, the current population seroprevalence is not enough to protect from future outbreaks. Individuals naïve to chikungunya and living in precarious socio-economic conditions are likely to be at high risk of infection in future outbreaks. To prevent and prepare for future chikungunya epidemics, it is essential to address socio-economic inequalities as a priority, and to strengthen chikungunya surveillance in Mayotte.

Attitudes towards booster, testing and isolation, and their impact on COVID-19 response in winter 2022/2023 in France, Belgium, and Italy: a cross-sectional survey and modelling study.

Background: European countries are focusing on testing, isolation, and boosting strategies to counter the 2022/2023 winter surge due to SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariants. However, widespread pandemic fatigue and limited compliance potentially undermine mitigation efforts. Methods: To establish a baseline for interventions, we ran a multicountry survey to assess respondents' willingness to receive booster vaccination and comply with testing and isolation mandates. Integrating survey and estimated immunity data in a branching process epidemic spreading model, we evaluated the effectiveness and costs of current protocols in France, Belgium, and Italy to manage the winter wave. Findings: The vast majority of survey participants (N = 4594) was willing to adhere to testing (>91%) and rapid isolation (>88%) across the three countries. Pronounced differences emerged in the declared senior adherence to booster vaccination (73% in France, 94% in Belgium, 86% in Italy). Epidemic model results estimate that testing and isolation protocols would confer significant benefit in reducing transmission (17-24% reduction, from R = 1.6 to R = 1.3 in France and Belgium, to R = 1.2 in Italy) with declared adherence. Achieving a mitigating level similar to the French protocol, the Belgian protocol would require 35% fewer tests (from 1 test to 0.65 test per infected person) and avoid the long isolation periods of the Italian protocol (average of 6 days vs. 11). A cost barrier to test would significantly decrease adherence in France and Belgium, undermining protocols' effectiveness. Interpretation: Simpler mandates for isolation may increase awareness and actual compliance, reducing testing costs, without compromising mitigation. High booster vaccination uptake remains key for the control of the winter wave. Funding: The European Commission, ANRS-Maladies Infectieuses Émergentes, the Agence Nationale de la Recherche, the Chaires Blaise Pascal Program of the Île-de-France region.

Application of Machine Learning Prediction of Individual SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination and Infection Status to the French Serosurveillance Survey From March 2020 to 2022: Cross-Sectional Study.

BACKGROUND: The seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the French population was estimated with a representative, repeated cross-sectional survey based on residual sera from routine blood testing. These data contained no information on infection or vaccination status, thus limiting the ability to detail changes observed in the immunity level of the population over time. OBJECTIVE: Our aim is to predict the infected or vaccinated status of individuals in the French serosurveillance survey based only on the results of serological assays. Reference data on longitudinal serological profiles of seronegative, infected, and vaccinated individuals from another French cohort were used to build the predictive model. METHODS: A model of individual vaccination or infection status with respect to SARS-CoV-2 obtained from a machine learning procedure was proposed based on 3 complementary serological assays. This model was applied to the French nationwide serosurveillance survey from March 2020 to March 2022 to estimate the proportions of the population that were negative, infected, vaccinated, or infected and vaccinated. RESULTS: From February 2021 to March 2022, the estimated percentage of infected and unvaccinated individuals in France increased from 7.5% to 16.8%. During this period, the estimated percentage increased from 3.6% to 45.2% for vaccinated and uninfected individuals and from 2.1% to 29.1% for vaccinated and infected individuals. The decrease in the seronegative population can be largely attributed to vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: Combining results from the serosurveillance survey with more complete data from another longitudinal cohort completes the information retrieved from serosurveillance while keeping its protocol simple and easy to implement.