What is the economic benefit of annual COVID-19 vaccination from the adult individual perspective?

BACKGROUND: With COVID-19 vaccination no longer mandated by many businesses/organizations, it is now up to individuals to decide whether to get any new boosters/updated vaccines going forward. METHODS: We developed a Markov model representing the potential clinical/economic outcomes from an individual perspective in the United States of getting versus not getting an annual COVID-19 vaccine. RESULTS: For an 18-49-year-old, getting vaccinated at its current price ($60) can save the individual on average $30-$603 if the individual is uninsured and $4-$437 if the individual has private insurance, as long as the starting vaccine efficacy against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is ≥50% and the weekly risk of getting infected is ≥0.2%, corresponding to an individual interacting with 9 other people in a day under Winter 2023-2024 Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant conditions with an average infection prevalence of 10%. For a 50-64-year-old, these cost-savings increase to $111-$1,278 and $119-$1,706, for someone without and with insurance, respectively. The risk threshold increases to ≥0.4% (interacting with 19 people/day), when the individual has 13.4% pre-existing protection against infection (e.g., vaccinated 9 months earlier). CONCLUSION: There is both clinical and economic incentive for the individual to continue to get vaccinated against COVID-19 each year.

A Systems Map of the Challenges of Climate Communication.

Over the past sixty years, scientists have been warning about climate change and its impacts on human health, but evidence suggests that many may not be heeding these concerns. This raises the question of whether new communication approaches are needed to overcome the unique challenges of communicating what people can do to slow or reverse climate change. To better elucidate the challenges of communicating about the links between human activity, climate change and its effects, and identify potential solutions, we developed a systems map of the factors and processes involved based on systems mapping sessions with climate change and communication experts. The systems map revealed 27 communication challenges such as "Limited information on how individual actions contribute to collective human activity," "Limited information on how present activity leads to long-term effects," and "Difficult to represent and communicate complex relationships." The systems map also revealed several themes among the identified challenges that exist in communicating about climate change, including a lack of available data and integrated databases, climate change disciplines working in silos, a need for a lexicon that is easily understood by the public, and the need for new communication strategies to describe processes that take time to manifest.

The impact of reducing the frequency of night feeding on infant BMI.

BACKGROUND: Teaching caregivers to respond to normal infant night awakenings in ways other than feeding is a common obesity prevention effort. Models can simulate caregiver feeding behavior while controlling for variables that are difficult to manipulate or measure in real life. METHODS: We developed a virtual infant model representing an infant with an embedded metabolism and his/her daily sleep, awakenings, and feeds from their caregiver each day as the infant aged from 6 to 12 months (recommended age to introduce solids). We then simulated different night feeding interventions and their impact on infant body mass index (BMI). RESULTS: Reducing the likelihood of feeding during normal night wakings from 79% to 50% to 10% lowered infant BMI from the 84th to the 75th to the 62nd percentile by 12 months, respectively, among caregivers who did not adaptively feed (e.g., adjust portion sizes of solid foods with infant growth). Among caregivers who adaptively feed, all scenarios resulted in relatively stable BMI percentiles, and progressively reducing feeding probability by 10% each month showed the least fluctuations. CONCLUSIONS: Reducing night feeding has the potential to impact infant BMI, (e.g., 10% lower probability can reduce BMI by 20 percentile points) especially among caregivers who do not adaptively feed. IMPACT: Teaching caregivers to respond to infant night waking with other soothing behaviors besides feeding has the potential to reduce infant BMI. When reducing the likelihood of feeding during night wakings from 79% to 50% to 10%, infants dropped from the 84th BMI percentile to the 75th to the 62nd by 12 months, respectively, among caregivers who do not adaptively feed. Night-feeding interventions have a greater impact when caregivers do not adaptively feed their infant based on their growth compared to caregivers who do adaptively feed. Night-feeding interventions should be one of the several tools in a multi-component intervention for childhood obesity prevention.

The value of decreasing the duration of the infectious period of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection.

Finding medications or vaccines that may decrease the infectious period of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) could potentially reduce transmission in the broader population. We developed a computational model of the U.S. simulating the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the potential clinical and economic impact of reducing the infectious period duration. Simulation experiments found that reducing the average infectious period duration could avert a median of 442,852 [treating 25% of symptomatic cases, reducing by 0.5 days, reproductive number (R0) 3.5, and starting treatment when 15% of the population has been exposed] to 44.4 million SARS-CoV-2 cases (treating 75% of all infected cases, reducing by 3.5 days, R0 2.0). With R0 2.5, reducing the average infectious period duration by 0.5 days for 25% of symptomatic cases averted 1.4 million cases and 99,398 hospitalizations; increasing to 75% of symptomatic cases averted 2.8 million cases. At $500/person, treating 25% of symptomatic cases saved $209.5 billion (societal perspective). Further reducing the average infectious period duration by 3.5 days averted 7.4 million cases (treating 25% of symptomatic cases). Expanding treatment to 75% of all infected cases, including asymptomatic infections (R0 2.5), averted 35.9 million cases and 4 million hospitalizations, saving $48.8 billion (societal perspective and starting treatment after 5% of the population has been exposed). Our study quantifies the potential effects of reducing the SARS-CoV-2 infectious period duration.

The Impact of a Place-Tailored Digital Health App Promoting Exercise Classes on African American Women's Physical Activity and Obesity: Simulation Study.

BACKGROUND: The increasing prevalence of smartphone apps to help people find different services raises the question of whether apps to help people find physical activity (PA) locations would help better prevent and control having overweight or obesity. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this paper is to determine and quantify the potential impact of a digital health intervention for African American women prior to allocating financial resources toward implementation. METHODS: We developed our Virtual Population Obesity Prevention, agent-based model of Washington, DC, to simulate the impact of a place-tailored digital health app that provides information about free recreation center classes on PA, BMI, and overweight and obesity prevalence among African American women. RESULTS: When the app is introduced at the beginning of the simulation, with app engagement at 25% (eg, 25% [41,839/167,356] of women aware of the app; 25% [10,460/41,839] of those aware downloading the app; and 25% [2615/10,460] of those who download it receiving regular push notifications), and a 25% (25/100) baseline probability to exercise (eg, without the app), there are no statistically significant increases in PA levels or decreases in BMI or obesity prevalence over 5 years across the population. When 50% (83,678/167,356) of women are aware of the app; 58.23% (48,725/83,678) of those who are aware download it; and 55% (26,799/48,725) of those who download it receive regular push notifications, in line with existing studies on app usage, introducing the app on average increases PA and decreases weight or obesity prevalence, though the changes are not statistically significant. When app engagement increased to 75% (125,517/167,356) of women who were aware, 75% (94,138/125,517) of those who were aware downloading it, and 75% (70,603/94,138) of those who downloaded it opting into the app's push notifications, there were statistically significant changes in PA participation, minutes of PA and obesity prevalence. CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows that a digital health app that helps identify recreation center classes does not result in substantive population-wide health effects at lower levels of app engagement. For the app to result in statistically significant increases in PA and reductions in obesity prevalence over 5 years, there needs to be at least 75% (125,517/167,356) of women aware of the app, 75% (94,138/125,517) of those aware of the app download it, and 75% (70,603/94,138) of those who download it opt into push notifications. Nevertheless, the app cannot fully overcome lack of access to recreation centers; therefore, public health administrators as well as parks and recreation agencies might consider incorporating this type of technology into multilevel interventions that also target the built environment and other social determinants of health.

Lives and Costs Saved by Expanding and Expediting Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccination.

BACKGROUND: With multiple coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines available, understanding the epidemiologic, clinical, and economic value of increasing coverage levels and expediting vaccination is important. METHODS: We developed a computational model (transmission and age-stratified clinical and economics outcome model) representing the United States population, COVID-19 coronavirus spread (February 2020-December 2022), and vaccination to determine the impact of increasing coverage and expediting time to achieve coverage. RESULTS: When achieving a given vaccination coverage in 270 days (70% vaccine efficacy), every 1% increase in coverage can avert an average of 876 800 (217 000-2 398 000) cases, varying with the number of people already vaccinated. For example, each 1% increase between 40% and 50% coverage can prevent 1.5 million cases, 56 240 hospitalizations, and 6660 deaths; gain 77 590 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs); and save $602.8 million in direct medical costs and $1.3 billion in productivity losses. Expediting to 180 days could save an additional 5.8 million cases, 215 790 hospitalizations, 26 370 deaths, 206 520 QALYs, $3.5 billion in direct medical costs, and $4.3 billion in productivity losses. CONCLUSIONS: Our study quantifies the potential value of decreasing vaccine hesitancy and increasing vaccination coverage and how this value may decrease with the time it takes to achieve coverage, emphasizing the need to reach high coverage levels as soon as possible, especially before the fall/winter.

The Clinical and Economic Burden of Norovirus Gastroenteritis in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Although norovirus outbreaks periodically make headlines, it is unclear how much attention norovirus may receive otherwise. A better understanding of the burden could help determine how to prioritize norovirus prevention and control. METHODS: We developed a computational simulation model to quantify the clinical and economic burden of norovirus in the United States. RESULTS: A symptomatic case generated $48 in direct medical costs, $416 in productivity losses ($464 total). The median yearly cost of outbreaks was $7.6 million (range across years, $7.5-$8.2 million) in direct medical costs, and $165.3 million ($161.1-$176.4 million) in productivity losses ($173.5 million total). Sporadic illnesses in the community (incidence, 10-150/1000 population) resulted in 14 118-211 705 hospitalizations, 8.2-122.9 million missed school/work days, $0.2-$2.3 billion in direct medical costs, and $1.4-$20.7 billion in productivity losses ($1.5-$23.1 billion total). The total cost was $10.6 billion based on the current incidence estimate (68.9/1000). CONCLUSION: Our study quantified norovirus' burden. Of the total burden, sporadic cases constituted >90% (thus, annual burden may vary depending on incidence) and productivity losses represented 89%. More than half the economic burden is in adults ≥45, more than half occurs in winter months, and >90% of outbreak costs are due to person-to-person transmission, offering insights into where and when prevention/control efforts may yield returns.

What If the Influenza Vaccine Did Not Offer Such Variable Protection?

BACKGROUND: The protection that an influenza vaccine offers can vary significantly from person to person due to differences in immune systems, body types, and other factors. The question, then, is what is the value of efforts to reduce this variability such as making vaccines more personalized and tailored to individuals. METHODS: We developed a compartment model of the United States to simulate different influenza seasons and the impact of reducing the variability in responses to the influenza vaccine across the population. RESULTS: Going from a vaccine that varied in efficacy (0-30%) to one that had a uniform 30% efficacy for everyone averted 16.0-31.2 million cases, $1.9-$3.6 billion in direct medical costs, and $16.1-$42.7 billion in productivity losses. Going from 0-50% in efficacy to just 50% for everyone averted 27.7-38.6 million cases, $3.3-$4.6 billion in direct medical costs, and $28.8-$57.4 billion in productivity losses. Going from 0-70% to 70% averted 33.6-54.1 million cases, $4.0-$6.5 billion in direct medical costs, and $44.8-$64.7 billion in productivity losses. CONCLUSIONS: This study quantifies for policy makers, funders, and vaccine developers and manufacturers the potential impact of efforts to reduce variability in the protection that influenza vaccines offer (eg, developing vaccines that are more personalized to different individual factors).

Can following formula-feeding recommendations still result in infants who are overweight or have obesity?

BACKGROUND: Studies show that by 3 months, over half of US infants receive formula, and guidelines play a key role in formula feeding. The question then is, what might happen if caregivers follow guidelines and, more specifically, are there situations where following guidelines can result in infants who are overweight/have obesity? METHODS: We used our "Virtual Infant" agent-based model representing infant-caregiver pairs that allowed caregivers to feed infants each day according to guidelines put forth by Johns Hopkins Medicine (JHM), Children's Hospital of Philadelphia (CHOP), Children's Hospital of the King's Daughters (CHKD), and Women, Infants, and Children (WIC). The model simulated the resulting development of the infants from birth to 6 months. The two sets of guidelines vary in their recommendations, and do not provide studies that support amounts at given ages. RESULTS: Simulations identified several scenarios where caregivers followed JHM/CHOP/CHKD and WIC guidelines, but infants still became overweight/with obesity by 6 months. For JHM/CHOP/CHKD guidelines, this occurred even when caregivers adjusted feeding based on infant's weight. For WIC guidelines, when caregivers adjusted formula amounts, infants maintained healthy weight. CONCLUSIONS: WIC guidelines may be a good starting point for caregivers who adjust as their infant grows, but the minimum amounts for JHM/CHKD/CHOP recommendations may be too high. IMPACT: Our virtual infant simulation study answers the question: can caregivers follow current formula-feeding guidelines and still end up with an infant who is overweight or has obesity? Our study identified several situations in which unhealthy weight gain and/or weight loss could result from following established formula-feeding recommendations. Our study also suggests that the minimum recommended amount of daily formula feeding should be lower for JHM/CHOP/CHKD guidelines to give caregivers more flexibility in adjusting daily feeding levels in response to infant weight. WIC guidelines may be a good starting point for caregivers who adjust as their infant grows. In order to understand how to adjust guidelines, we can use computational simulation models, which serve as "virtual laboratories" to help overcome the logistical and ethical issues of clinical trials.

Pathophysiology of Eosinophilic Esophagitis.

Eosinophilic esophagitis is an emerging disease that is distinguished from gastroesophageal reflux disease by the expression of a unique esophageal transcriptome and the interplay of early life environmental factors with distinct genetic susceptibility elements at 5q22 (TSLP) and 2p23 (CAPN14). Rare genetic syndromes have uncovered the contribution of barrier disruption, mediated in part by defective desmosomes and dysregulated transforming growth factor beta production and signaling, to eosinophilic esophagitis pathophysiology. Experimental modeling has defined a cooperative role of activated eosinophils, mast cells, and the cytokines IL-5 and IL-13, mediated by allergic sensitization to multiple foods. Understanding these processes is opening the way to better treatment based on disrupting allergic inflammatory and type 2 cytokine-mediated responses, including anti-cytokine therapeutics and dietary therapy.

Costimulatory Effects of an Immunodominant Parasite Antigen Paradoxically Prevent Induction of Optimal CD8 T Cell Protective Immunity.

Trypanosoma cruzi infection is controlled but not eliminated by host immunity. The T. cruzi trans-sialidase (TS) gene superfamily encodes immunodominant protective antigens, but expression of altered peptide ligands by different TS genes has been hypothesized to promote immunoevasion. We molecularly defined TS epitopes to determine their importance for protection versus parasite persistence. Peptide-pulsed dendritic cell vaccination experiments demonstrated that one pair of immunodominant CD4+ and CD8+ TS peptides alone can induce protective immunity (100% survival post-lethal parasite challenge). TS DNA vaccines have been shown by us (and others) to protect BALB/c mice against T. cruzi challenge. We generated a new TS vaccine in which the immunodominant TS CD8+ epitope MHC anchoring positions were mutated, rendering the mutant TS vaccine incapable of inducing immunity to the immunodominant CD8 epitope. Immunization of mice with wild type (WT) and mutant TS vaccines demonstrated that vaccines encoding enzymatically active protein and the immunodominant CD8+ T cell epitope enhance subdominant pathogen-specific CD8+ T cell responses. More specifically, CD8+ T cells from WT TS DNA vaccinated mice were responsive to 14 predicted CD8+ TS epitopes, while T cells from mutant TS DNA vaccinated mice were responsive to just one of these 14 predicted TS epitopes. Molecular and structural biology studies revealed that this novel costimulatory mechanism involves CD45 signaling triggered by enzymatically active TS. This enhancing effect on subdominant T cells negatively regulates protective immunity. Using peptide-pulsed DC vaccination experiments, we have shown that vaccines inducing both immunodominant and subdominant epitope responses were significantly less protective than vaccines inducing only immunodominant-specific responses. These results have important implications for T. cruzi vaccine development. Of broader significance, we demonstrate that increasing breadth of T cell epitope responses induced by vaccination is not always advantageous for host immunity.

Disrupted pulmonary artery cyclic guanosine monophosphate signaling in mice with hyperoxia-induced pulmonary hypertension.

Pulmonary hypertension (PH) occurs in 25 to 35% of premature infants with significant bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD). Neonatal mice exposed to 14 days of hyperoxia develop BPD-like lung injury and PH. To determinne the impact of hyperoxia on pulmonary artery (PA) cyclic guanosine monophosphate (cGMP) signaling in a murine model of lung injury and PH, neonatal C57BL/6 mice were placed in room air, 75% O2 for 14 days (chronic hyperoxia [CH]) or 75% O2 for 24 hours, followed by 13 days of room air (acute hyperoxia with recovery [AHR]) with or without sildenafil. At 14 days, mean alveolar area, PA medial wall thickness (MWT), right ventricular hypertrophy (RVH), and vessel density were assessed. PA protein was analyzed for cGMP, soluble guanylate cyclase, and PDE5 activity. CH and AHR mice had RVH, but only CH mice had increased alveolar area and MWT and decreased vessel density. In CH and AHR PAs, soluble guanylate cyclase activity was decreased, and PDE5 activity was increased. In CH mice, sildenafil attenuated MWT and RVH but did not improve mean alveolar area or vessel density. In CH and AHR PAs, sildenafil decreased PDE5 activity and increased cGMP. Our results indicate that prolonged hyperoxia leads to lung injury, PH, RVH, and disrupted PA cGMP signaling. Furthermore, 24 hours of hyperoxia causes RVH and disrupted PA cGMP signaling that persists for 13 days. Sildenafil reduced RVH and restored vascular cGMP signaling but did not attenuate lung injury. Thus, hyperoxia can rapidly disrupt PA cGMP signaling in vivo with sustained effects, and concurrent sildenafil therapy can be protective.

Torpor and hypothermia: reversed hysteresis of metabolic rate and body temperature.

Regulated torpor and unregulated hypothermia are both characterized by substantially reduced body temperature (Tb) and metabolic rate (MR), but they differ physiologically. Although the remarkable, medically interesting adaptations accompanying torpor (e.g., tolerance for cold and ischemia, absence of reperfusion injury, and disuse atrophy) often do not apply to hypothermia in homeothermic species such as humans, the terms "torpor" and "hypothermia" are often used interchangeably in the literature. To determine how these states differ functionally and to provide a reliable diagnostic tool for differentiating between these two physiologically distinct states, we examined the interrelations between Tb and MR in a mammal (Sminthopsis macroura) undergoing a bout of torpor with those of the hypothermic response of a similar-sized juvenile rat (Rattus norvegicus). Our data show that under similar thermal conditions, 1) cooling rates differ substantially (approximately fivefold) between the two states; 2) minimum MR is approximately sevenfold higher during hypothermia than during torpor despite a similar Tb; 3) rapid, endogenously fuelled rewarming occurs in torpor but not hypothermia; and 4) the hysteresis between Tb and MR during warming and cooling proceeds in opposite directions in torpor and hypothermia. We thus demonstrate clear diagnostic physiological differences between these two states that can be used experimentally to confirm whether torpor or hypothermia has occurred. Furthermore, the data can clarify the results of studies investigating the ability of physiological or pharmacological agents to induce torpor. Consequently, we recommend using the terms "torpor" and "hypothermia" in ways that are consistent with the underlying regulatory differences between these two physiological states.

Racial and Socioeconomic Disparities Exist in Patients Pursuing Peanut Oral Immunotherapy.

BACKGROUND: Oral immunotherapy (OIT) is a promising treatment for food allergy. Prior studies demonstrate significant differences among food-allergic individuals across race, ethnicity, and socioeconomic groups. Disparities in OIT have not been evaluated. OBJECTIVE: We assessed disparities in the use of OIT in patients with peanut allergy based on race, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status at a single academic medical center. METHODS: We identified 1028 peanut-allergic patients younger than 18 years receiving care in the University of Michigan food allergy clinics. Of these, 148 patients who underwent peanut OIT (treatment group) were compared with the 880 patients who avoided peanut (control group). Pertinent demographic and socioeconomic characteristics were compared. RESULTS: There were no differences in gender or ethnicity between the OIT and control groups. However, Black patients comprised 18% of the control group but only 4.1% of the OIT treatment group (P < .0001). The proportion of patients with private insurance was significantly higher in the treatment group compared with the control group (93.2% vs 82.2%, P = .0004). Finally, the neighborhood affluence index, a census-based measure of the relative socioeconomic prosperity of a neighborhood, was significantly higher in the OIT group than the control group (0.51 ± 0.18 vs 0.47 ± 0.19, P = .015), whereas the neighborhood disadvantage index, a census-based measure of the relative socioeconomic disadvantage of a neighborhood, was significantly lower (0.082 ± 0.062 vs 0.10 ± 0.093, P = .020). CONCLUSIONS: Significant racial and economic disparities exist at our institution between peanut-allergic individuals who receive OIT and those who do not. Efforts to understand the basis for these disparities are important to ensure that patients have equitable access to OIT.

User Experience of Access to Sexual Assault Nurse Examiner and Emergency Contraception in Emergency Departments in the United States: A National Survey.

Background: Despite the prevalence of sexual assault presentations to emergency departments (ED) in the United States, current access to sexual assault nurse examiners (SANE) and emergency contraception (EC) in EDs is unknown. Methods: In this study we employed a "secret shopper," cross-sectional telephonic survey. A team attempted phone contact with a representative sample of EDs and asked respondents about the availability of SANEs and EC in their ED. Reported availability was correlated with variables including region, urban/rural status, hospital size, faith affiliation, academic affiliation, and existence of legislative requirements to offer EC. Results: Over a two-month period in 2019, 1,046 calls to hospitals were attempted and 960 were completed (91.7% response rate). Of the 4,360 eligible hospitals listed in a federal database, 960 (22.0%) were contacted. Access to SANEs and EC were reported to be available in 48.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] 45.5-52.0) and 42.5% (95% CI 39.4-45.7) of hospitals, respectively. Access to EC was positively correlated with SANE availability. The EDs reporting SANE and EC availability were more likely to be large, rural, and affiliated with an academic institution. Those reporting access to EC were more likely to be in the Northeast and in states with legislative requirements to offer EC. Conclusion: Our results suggest that perceived access to sexual assault services and emergency contraception in EDs in the United States remains poor with regional and legislative disparities. Results suggest disparities in perceived access to EC and SANE in the ED, which have implications for improving ED practices regarding care of sexual assault victims.

The potential epidemiologic, clinical, and economic value of a universal coronavirus vaccine: a modelling study.

Background: With efforts underway to develop a universal coronavirus vaccine, otherwise known as a pan-coronavirus vaccine, this is the time to offer potential funders, researchers, and manufacturers guidance on the potential value of such a vaccine and how this value may change with differing vaccine and vaccination characteristics. Methods: Using a computational model representing the United States (U.S.) population, the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the various clinical and economic outcomes of COVID-19 such as hospitalisations, deaths, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) lost, productivity losses, direct medical costs, and total societal costs, we explored the impact of a universal vaccine under different circumstances. We developed and populated this model using data reported by the CDC as well as observational studies conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings: A pan-coronavirus vaccine would be cost saving in the U.S. as a standalone intervention as long as its vaccine efficacy is ≥10% and vaccination coverage is ≥10%. Every 1% increase in efficacy between 10% and 50% could avert an additional 395,000 infections and save $1.0 billion in total societal costs ($45.3 million in productivity losses, $1.1 billion in direct medical costs). It would remain cost saving even when a strain-specific coronavirus vaccine would be subsequently available, as long as it takes at least 2-3 months to develop, test, and bring that more specific vaccine to the market. Interpretation: Our results provide support for the development and stockpiling of a pan-coronavirus vaccine and help delineate the vaccine characteristics to aim for in development of such a vaccine. Funding: The National Science Foundation, the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, the National Institute of General Medical Sciences, the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, and the City University of New York.

How the Timing of Annual COVID-19 Vaccination of Nursing Home Residents and Staff Affects Its Value.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the epidemiologic, clinical, and economic value of an annual nursing home (NH) COVID-19 vaccine campaign and the impact of when vaccination starts. DESIGN: Agent-based model representing a typical NH. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: NH residents and staff. METHODS: We used the model representing an NH with 100 residents, its staff, their interactions, COVID-19 spread, and its health and economic outcomes to evaluate the epidemiologic, clinical, and economic value of varying schedules of annual COVID-19 vaccine campaigns. RESULTS: Across a range of scenarios with a 60% vaccine efficacy that wanes starting 4 months after protection onset, vaccination was cost saving or cost-effective when initiated in the late summer or early fall. Annual vaccination averted 102 to 105 COVID-19 cases when 30-day vaccination campaigns began between July and October (varying with vaccination start), decreasing to 97 and 85 cases when starting in November and December, respectively. Starting vaccination between July and December saved $3340 to $4363 and $64,375 to $77,548 from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services and societal perspectives, respectively (varying with vaccination start). Vaccination's value did not change when varying the COVID-19 peak between December and February. The ideal vaccine campaign timing was not affected by reducing COVID-19 levels in the community, or varying transmission probability, preexisting immunity, or COVID-19 severity. However, if vaccine efficacy wanes more quickly (over 1 month), earlier vaccination in July resulted in more cases compared with vaccinating later in October. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Annual vaccination of NH staff and residents averted the most cases when initiated in the late summer through early fall, at least 2 months before the COVID-19 winter peak but remained cost saving or cost-effective when it starts in the same month as the peak. This supports tethering COVID vaccination to seasonal influenza campaigns (typically in September-October) for providing protection against SARS-CoV-2 winter surges in NHs.