Generation and transmission of interlineage recombinants in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

We present evidence for multiple independent origins of recombinant SARS-CoV-2 viruses sampled from late 2020 and early 2021 in the United Kingdom. Their genomes carry single-nucleotide polymorphisms and deletions that are characteristic of the B.1.1.7 variant of concern but lack the full complement of lineage-defining mutations. Instead, the remainder of their genomes share contiguous genetic variation with non-B.1.1.7 viruses circulating in the same geographic area at the same time as the recombinants. In four instances, there was evidence for onward transmission of a recombinant-origin virus, including one transmission cluster of 45 sequenced cases over the course of 2 months. The inferred genomic locations of recombination breakpoints suggest that every community-transmitted recombinant virus inherited its spike region from a B.1.1.7 parental virus, consistent with a transmission advantage for B.1.1.7's set of mutations.

Evaluating the Effects of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Mutation D614G on Transmissibility and Pathogenicity.

Global dispersal and increasing frequency of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein variant D614G are suggestive of a selective advantage but may also be due to a random founder effect. We investigate the hypothesis for positive selection of spike D614G in the United Kingdom using more than 25,000 whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences. Despite the availability of a large dataset, well represented by both spike 614 variants, not all approaches showed a conclusive signal of positive selection. Population genetic analysis indicates that 614G increases in frequency relative to 614D in a manner consistent with a selective advantage. We do not find any indication that patients infected with the spike 614G variant have higher COVID-19 mortality or clinical severity, but 614G is associated with higher viral load and younger age of patients. Significant differences in growth and size of 614G phylogenetic clusters indicate a need for continued study of this variant.

Circulating SARS-CoV-2 spike N439K variants maintain fitness while evading antibody-mediated immunity.

SARS-CoV-2 can mutate and evade immunity, with consequences for efficacy of emerging vaccines and antibody therapeutics. Here, we demonstrate that the immunodominant SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) receptor binding motif (RBM) is a highly variable region of S and provide epidemiological, clinical, and molecular characterization of a prevalent, sentinel RBM mutation, N439K. We demonstrate N439K S protein has enhanced binding affinity to the hACE2 receptor, and N439K viruses have similar in vitro replication fitness and cause infections with similar clinical outcomes as compared to wild type. We show the N439K mutation confers resistance against several neutralizing monoclonal antibodies, including one authorized for emergency use by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and reduces the activity of some polyclonal sera from persons recovered from infection. Immune evasion mutations that maintain virulence and fitness such as N439K can emerge within SARS-CoV-2 S, highlighting the need for ongoing molecular surveillance to guide development and usage of vaccines and therapeutics.

Context-specific emergence and growth of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant.

The SARS-CoV-2 Delta (Pango lineage B.1.617.2) variant of concern spread globally, causing resurgences of COVID-19 worldwide1,2. The emergence of the Delta variant in the UK occurred on the background of a heterogeneous landscape of immunity and relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Here we analyse 52,992 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from England together with 93,649 genomes from the rest of the world to reconstruct the emergence of Delta and quantify its introduction to and regional dissemination across England in the context of changing travel and social restrictions. Using analysis of human movement, contact tracing and virus genomic data, we find that the geographic focus of the expansion of Delta shifted from India to a more global pattern in early May 2021. In England, Delta lineages were introduced more than 1,000 times and spread nationally as non-pharmaceutical interventions were relaxed. We find that hotel quarantine for travellers reduced onward transmission from importations; however, the transmission chains that later dominated the Delta wave in England were seeded before travel restrictions were introduced. Increasing inter-regional travel within England drove the nationwide dissemination of Delta, with some cities receiving more than 2,000 observable lineage introductions from elsewhere. Subsequently, increased levels of local population mixing-and not the number of importations-were associated with the faster relative spread of Delta. The invasion dynamics of Delta depended on spatial heterogeneity in contact patterns, and our findings will inform optimal spatial interventions to reduce the transmission of current and future variants of concern, such as Omicron (Pango lineage B.1.1.529).

Assessing transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England.

The SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7, designated variant of concern (VOC) 202012/01 by Public Health England1, was first identified in the UK in late summer to early autumn 20202. Whole-genome SARS-CoV-2 sequence data collected from community-based diagnostic testing for COVID-19 show an extremely rapid expansion of the B.1.1.7 lineage during autumn 2020, suggesting that it has a selective advantage. Here we show that changes in VOC frequency inferred from genetic data correspond closely to changes inferred by S gene target failures (SGTF) in community-based diagnostic PCR testing. Analysis of trends in SGTF and non-SGTF case numbers in local areas across England shows that B.1.1.7 has higher transmissibility than non-VOC lineages, even if it has a different latent period or generation time. The SGTF data indicate a transient shift in the age composition of reported cases, with cases of B.1.1.7 including a larger share of under 20-year-olds than non-VOC cases. We estimated time-varying reproduction numbers for B.1.1.7 and co-circulating lineages using SGTF and genomic data. The best-supported models did not indicate a substantial difference in VOC transmissibility among different age groups, but all analyses agreed that B.1.1.7 has a substantial transmission advantage over other lineages, with a 50% to 100% higher reproduction number.

Urgent need for a non-discriminatory and non-stigmatizing nomenclature for monkeypox virus.

We propose a novel, non-discriminatory classification of monkeypox virus diversity. Together with the World Health Organization, we named three clades (I, IIa and IIb) in order of detection. Within IIb, the cause of the current global outbreak, we identified multiple lineages (A.1, A.2, A.1.1 and B.1) to support real-time genomic surveillance.

SCORPIO: a utility for defining and classifying mutation constellations of virus genomes.

SUMMARY: Scorpio provides a set of command line utilities for classifying, haplotyping, and defining constellations of mutations for an aligned set of genome sequences. It was developed to enable exploration and classification of variants of concern within the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, but can be applied more generally to other species. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: Scorpio is an open-source project distributed under the GNU GPL version 3 license. Source code and binaries are available at https://github.com/cov-lineages/scorpio, and binaries are also available from Bioconda. SARS-CoV-2 specific definitions can be installed as a separate dependency from https://github.com/cov-lineages/constellations.

Making genomic surveillance deliver: A lineage classification and nomenclature system to inform rabies elimination.

The availability of pathogen sequence data and use of genomic surveillance is rapidly increasing. Genomic tools and classification systems need updating to reflect this. Here, rabies virus is used as an example to showcase the potential value of updated genomic tools to enhance surveillance to better understand epidemiological dynamics and improve disease control. Previous studies have described the evolutionary history of rabies virus, however the resulting taxonomy lacks the definition necessary to identify incursions, lineage turnover and transmission routes at high resolution. Here we propose a lineage classification system based on the dynamic nomenclature used for SARS-CoV-2, defining a lineage by phylogenetic methods for tracking virus spread and comparing sequences across geographic areas. We demonstrate this system through application to the globally distributed Cosmopolitan clade of rabies virus, defining 96 total lineages within the clade, beyond the 22 previously reported. We further show how integration of this tool with a new rabies virus sequence data resource (RABV-GLUE) enables rapid application, for example, highlighting lineage dynamics relevant to control and elimination programmes, such as identifying importations and their sources, as well as areas of persistence and routes of virus movement, including transboundary incursions. This system and the tools developed should be useful for coordinating and targeting control programmes and monitoring progress as countries work towards eliminating dog-mediated rabies, as well as having potential for broader application to the surveillance of other viruses.

Epigenetic age estimation of wild mice using faecal samples.

Age is a key parameter in population ecology, with a myriad of biological processes changing with age as organisms develop in early life then later senesce. As age is often hard to accurately measure with non-lethal methods, epigenetic methods of age estimation (epigenetic clocks) have become a popular tool in animal ecology and are often developed or calibrated using captive animals of known age. However, studies typically rely on invasive blood or tissue samples, which limit their application in more sensitive or elusive species. Moreover, few studies have directly assessed how methylation patterns and epigenetic age estimates compare across environmental contexts (e.g. captive or laboratory-based vs. wild animals). Here, we built a targeted epigenetic clock from laboratory house mice (strain C57BL/6, Mus musculus) using DNA from non-invasive faecal samples, and then used it to estimate age in a population of wild mice (Mus musculus domesticus) of unknown age. This laboratory mouse-derived epigenetic clock accurately predicted adult wild mice to be older than juveniles and showed that wild mice typically increased in epigenetic age over time, but with wide variation in epigenetic ageing rate among individuals. Our results also suggested that, for a given body mass, wild mice had higher methylation across targeted CpG sites than laboratory mice (and consistently higher epigenetic age estimates as a result), even among the smallest, juvenile mice. This suggests wild and laboratory mice may display different CpG methylation levels from very early in life and indicates caution is needed when developing epigenetic clocks on laboratory animals and applying them in the wild.

Computational strategies to combat COVID-19: useful tools to accelerate SARS-CoV-2 and coronavirus research.

SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) is a novel virus of the family Coronaviridae. The virus causes the infectious disease COVID-19. The biology of coronaviruses has been studied for many years. However, bioinformatics tools designed explicitly for SARS-CoV-2 have only recently been developed as a rapid reaction to the need for fast detection, understanding and treatment of COVID-19. To control the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, it is of utmost importance to get insight into the evolution and pathogenesis of the virus. In this review, we cover bioinformatics workflows and tools for the routine detection of SARS-CoV-2 infection, the reliable analysis of sequencing data, the tracking of the COVID-19 pandemic and evaluation of containment measures, the study of coronavirus evolution, the discovery of potential drug targets and development of therapeutic strategies. For each tool, we briefly describe its use case and how it advances research specifically for SARS-CoV-2. All tools are free to use and available online, either through web applications or public code repositories. Contact:evbc@unj-jena.de.

Pango lineage designation and assignment using SARS-CoV-2 spike gene nucleotide sequences.

BACKGROUND: More than 2 million SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences have been generated and shared since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic and constitute a vital information source that informs outbreak control, disease surveillance, and public health policy. The Pango dynamic nomenclature is a popular system for classifying and naming genetically-distinct lineages of SARS-CoV-2, including variants of concern, and is based on the analysis of complete or near-complete virus genomes. However, for several reasons, nucleotide sequences may be generated that cover only the spike gene of SARS-CoV-2. It is therefore important to understand how much information about Pango lineage status is contained in spike-only nucleotide sequences. Here we explore how Pango lineages might be reliably designated and assigned to spike-only nucleotide sequences. We survey the genetic diversity of such sequences, and investigate the information they contain about Pango lineage status. RESULTS: Although many lineages, including the main variants of concern, can be identified clearly using spike-only sequences, some spike-only sequences are shared among tens or hundreds of Pango lineages. To facilitate the classification of SARS-CoV-2 lineages using subgenomic sequences we introduce the notion of designating such sequences to a "lineage set", which represents the range of Pango lineages that are consistent with the observed mutations in a given spike sequence. CONCLUSIONS: We find that many lineages, including the main variants-of-concern, can be reliably identified by spike alone and we define lineage-sets to represent the lineage precision that can be achieved using spike-only nucleotide sequences. These data provide a foundation for the development of software tools that can assign newly-generated spike nucleotide sequences to Pango lineage sets.

Rapid and Sensitive Direct Detection and Identification of Poliovirus from Stool and Environmental Surveillance Samples by Use of Nanopore Sequencing.

Global poliovirus surveillance involves virus isolation from stool and environmental samples, intratypic differential (ITD) by PCR, and sequencing of the VP1 region to distinguish vaccine (Sabin), vaccine-derived, and wild-type polioviruses and to ensure an appropriate response. This cell culture algorithm takes 2 to 3 weeks on average between sample receipt and sequencing. Direct detection of viral RNA using PCR allows faster detection but has traditionally faced challenges related to poor sensitivity and difficulties in sequencing common samples containing poliovirus and enterovirus mixtures. We present a nested PCR and nanopore sequencing protocol that allows rapid (<3 days) and sensitive direct detection and sequencing of polioviruses in stool and environmental samples. We developed barcoded primers and a real-time analysis platform that generate accurate VP1 consensus sequences from multiplexed samples. The sensitivity and specificity of our protocol compared with those of cell culture were 90.9% (95% confidence interval, 75.7% to 98.1%) and 99.2% (95.5% to 100.0%) for wild-type 1 poliovirus, 92.5% (79.6% to 98.4%) and 98.7% (95.4% to 99.8%) for vaccine and vaccine-derived serotype 2 poliovirus, and 88.3% (81.2% to 93.5%) and 93.2% (88.6% to 96.3%) for Sabin 1 and 3 poliovirus alone or in mixtures when tested on 155 stool samples in Pakistan. Variant analysis of sequencing reads also allowed the identification of polioviruses and enteroviruses in artificial mixtures and was able to distinguish complex mixtures of polioviruses in environmental samples. The median identity of consensus nanopore sequences with Sanger or Illumina sequences from the same samples was >99.9%. This novel method shows promise as a faster and safer alternative to cell culture for the detection and real-time sequencing of polioviruses in stool and environmental samples.

Geographical and temporal distribution of SARS-CoV-2 clades in the WHO European Region, January to June 2020.

We show the distribution of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) genetic clades over time and between countries and outline potential genomic surveillance objectives. We applied three genomic nomenclature systems to all sequence data from the World Health Organization European Region available until 10 July 2020. We highlight the importance of real-time sequencing and data dissemination in a pandemic situation, compare the nomenclatures and lay a foundation for future European genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2.

Faster Evolving Primate Genes Are More Likely to Duplicate.

An attractive and long-standing hypothesis regarding the evolution of genes after duplication posits that the duplication event creates new evolutionary possibilities by releasing a copy of the gene from constraint. Apparent support was found in numerous analyses, particularly, the observation of higher rates of evolution in duplicated as compared with singleton genes. Could it, instead, be that more duplicable genes (owing to mutation, fixation, or retention biases) are intrinsically faster evolving? To uncouple the measurement of rates of evolution from the determination of duplicate or singleton status, we measure the rates of evolution in singleton genes in outgroup primate lineages but classify these genes as to whether they have duplicated or not in a crown group of great apes. We find that rates of evolution are higher in duplicable genes prior to the duplication event. In part this is owing to a negative correlation between coding sequence length and rate of evolution, coupled with a bias toward smaller genes being more duplicable. The effect is masked by difference in expression rate between duplicable genes and singletons. Additionally, in contradiction to the classical assumption, we find no convincing evidence for an increase in dN/dS after duplication, nor for rate asymmetry between duplicates. We conclude that high rates of evolution of duplicated genes are not solely a consequence of the duplication event, but are rather a predictor of duplicability. These results are consistent with a model in which successful gene duplication events in mammals are skewed toward events of minimal phenotypic impact.

Automated detection and classification of polioviruses from nanopore sequencing reads using piranha.

Widespread surveillance, rapid detection, and appropriate intervention will be critical for successful eradication of poliovirus. Using deployable next-generation sequencing (NGS) approaches, such as Oxford Nanopore Technologies' MinION, the time from sample to result can be significantly reduced compared to cell culture and Sanger sequencing. We developed piranha (poliovirus investigation resource automating nanopore haplotype analysis), a 'sequencing reads-to-report' solution to aid routine poliovirus testing of both stool and environmental samples and alleviate the bioinformatic bottleneck that often exists for laboratories adopting novel NGS approaches. Piranha can be used for efficient intratypic differentiation of poliovirus serotypes, for classification of Sabin-like polioviruses, and for detection of wild-type and vaccine-derived polioviruses. It produces interactive, distributable reports, as well as summary comma-separated values files and consensus poliovirus FASTA sequences. Piranha optionally provides phylogenetic analysis, with the ability to incorporate a local database, processing from raw sequencing reads to an interactive, annotated phylogeny in a single step. The reports describe each nanopore sequencing run with interpretable plots, enabling researchers to easily detect the presence of poliovirus in samples and quickly disseminate their results. Poliovirus eradication efforts are hindered by the lack of real-time detection and reporting, and piranha can be used to complement direct detection sequencing approaches.

SARS-CoV-2 lineage assignments using phylogenetic placement/UShER are superior to pangoLEARN machine-learning method.

With the rapid spread and evolution of SARS-CoV-2, the ability to monitor its transmission and distinguish among viral lineages is critical for pandemic response efforts. The most commonly used software for the lineage assignment of newly isolated SARS-CoV-2 genomes is pangolin, which offers two methods of assignment, pangoLEARN and pUShER. PangoLEARN rapidly assigns lineages using a machine-learning algorithm, while pUShER performs a phylogenetic placement to identify the lineage corresponding to a newly sequenced genome. In a preliminary study, we observed that pangoLEARN (decision tree model), while substantially faster than pUShER, offered less consistency across different versions of pangolin v3. Here, we expand upon this analysis to include v3 and v4 of pangolin, which moved the default algorithm for lineage assignment from pangoLEARN in v3 to pUShER in v4, and perform a thorough analysis confirming that pUShER is not only more stable across versions but also more accurate. Our findings suggest that future lineage assignment algorithms for various pathogens should consider the value of phylogenetic placement.

A framework for automated scalable designation of viral pathogen lineages from genomic data.

Pathogen lineage nomenclature systems are a key component of effective communication and collaboration for researchers and public health workers. Since February 2021, the Pango dynamic lineage nomenclature for SARS-CoV-2 has been sustained by crowdsourced lineage proposals as new isolates were sequenced. This approach is vulnerable to time-critical delays as well as regional and personal bias. Here we developed a simple heuristic approach for dividing phylogenetic trees into lineages, including the prioritization of key mutations or genes. Our implementation is efficient on extremely large phylogenetic trees consisting of millions of sequences and produces similar results to existing manually curated lineage designations when applied to SARS-CoV-2 and other viruses including chikungunya virus, Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus complex and Zika virus. This method offers a simple, automated and consistent approach to pathogen nomenclature that can assist researchers in developing and maintaining phylogeny-based classifications in the face of ever-increasing genomic datasets.

Sustained Human Outbreak of a New MPXV Clade I Lineage in the Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Outbreaks of mpox have historically resulted from zoonotic spillover of clade I monkeypox virus (MPXV) in Central Africa and clade II MPXV in West Africa. In 2022, subclade IIb caused a global epidemic linked to transmission through sexual contact. Here, we describe the epidemiological and genomic features of an mpox outbreak in a mining region in the Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), caused by clade I MPXV. Surveillance data collected between September 2023 and January 2024 identified 241 suspected cases. Genomic analysis demonstrates a distinct clade I lineage divergent from previously circulating strains in the DRC. Of the 108 PCR-confirmed mpox cases, the median age of individuals was 22 years, 51.9% were female, and 29% were sex workers, suggesting a potential role for sexual transmission. The predominance of APOBEC3-type mutations and the estimated emergence time around mid-September 2023 imply recent sustained human-to-human transmission.

Molecular epidemiology of recurrent zoonotic transmission of mpox virus in West Africa.

Nigeria and Cameroon reported their first mpox cases in over three decades in 2017 and 2018 respectively. The outbreak in Nigeria is recognised as an ongoing human epidemic. However, owing to sparse surveillance and genomic data, it is not known whether the increase in cases in Cameroon is driven by zoonotic or sustained human transmission. Notably, the frequency of zoonotic transmission remains unknown in both Cameroon and Nigeria. To address these uncertainties, we investigated the zoonotic transmission dynamics of the mpox virus (MPXV) in Cameroon and Nigeria, with a particular focus on the border regions. We show that in these regions mpox cases are still driven by zoonotic transmission of a newly identified Clade IIb.1. We identify two distinct zoonotic lineages that circulate across the Nigeria-Cameroon border, with evidence of recent and historic cross border dissemination. Our findings support that the complex cross-border forest ecosystems likely hosts shared animal populations that drive cross-border viral spread, which is likely where extant Clade IIb originated. We identify that the closest zoonotic outgroup to the human epidemic circulated in southern Nigeria in October 2013. We also show that the zoonotic precursor lineage circulated in an animal population in southern Nigeria for more than 45 years. This supports findings that southern Nigeria was the origin of the human epidemic. Our study highlights the ongoing MPXV zoonotic transmission in Cameroon and Nigeria, underscoring the continuous risk of MPXV (re)emergence.

Genomic epidemiology uncovers the timing and origin of the emergence of mpox in humans.

Five years before the 2022-2023 global mpox outbreak Nigeria reported its first cases in nearly 40 years, with the ongoing epidemic since driven by sustained human-to-human transmission. However, limited genomic data has left questions about the timing and origin of the mpox virus' (MPXV) emergence. Here we generated 112 MPXV genomes from Nigeria from 2021-2023. We identify the closest zoonotic outgroup to the human epidemic in southern Nigeria, and estimate that the lineage transmitting from human-to-human emerged around July 2014, circulating cryptically until detected in September 2017. The epidemic originated in Southern Nigeria, particularly Rivers State, which also acted as a persistent and dominant source of viral dissemination to other states. We show that APOBEC3 activity increased MPXV's evolutionary rate twenty-fold during human-to-human transmission. We also show how Delphy, a tool for near-real-time Bayesian phylogenetics, can aid rapid outbreak analytics. Our study sheds light on MPXV's establishment in West Africa before the 2022-2023 global outbreak and highlights the need for improved pathogen surveillance and response.