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1.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 111(36): 13139-44, 2014 Sep 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25157137

RESUMO

T-cell receptor (TCR) diversity, a prerequisite for immune system recognition of the universe of foreign antigens, is generated in the first two decades of life in the thymus and then persists to an unknown extent through life via homeostatic proliferation of naïve T cells. We have used next-generation sequencing and nonparametric statistical analysis to estimate a lower bound for the total number of different TCR beta (TCRB) sequences in human repertoires. We arrived at surprisingly high minimal estimates of 100 million unique TCRB sequences in naïve CD4 and CD8 T-cell repertoires of young adults. Naïve repertoire richness modestly declined two- to fivefold in healthy elderly. Repertoire richness contraction with age was even less pronounced for memory CD4 and CD8 T cells. In contrast, age had a major impact on the inequality of clonal sizes, as estimated by a modified Gini-Simpson index clonality score. In particular, large naïve T-cell clones that were distinct from memory clones were found in the repertoires of elderly individuals, indicating uneven homeostatic proliferation without development of a memory cell phenotype. Our results suggest that a highly diverse repertoire is maintained despite thymic involution; however, peripheral fitness selection of T cells leads to repertoire perturbations that can influence the immune response in the elderly.


Assuntos
Linfócitos T/citologia , Linfócitos T/imunologia , Adulto , Idoso , Envelhecimento/imunologia , Sequência de Bases , Linfócitos T CD4-Positivos/citologia , Linfócitos T CD4-Positivos/efeitos dos fármacos , Linfócitos T CD4-Positivos/imunologia , Linfócitos T CD8-Positivos/citologia , Linfócitos T CD8-Positivos/efeitos dos fármacos , Linfócitos T CD8-Positivos/imunologia , Compartimento Celular/efeitos dos fármacos , Compartimento Celular/imunologia , Proliferação de Células/efeitos dos fármacos , Células Clonais , Regiões Determinantes de Complementaridade/imunologia , Citocinas/farmacologia , Rearranjo Gênico da Cadeia beta dos Receptores de Antígenos dos Linfócitos T , Humanos , Memória Imunológica/efeitos dos fármacos , Receptores de Antígenos de Linfócitos T/imunologia , Linfócitos T/efeitos dos fármacos
2.
Clin Infect Dis ; 61(3): 445-52, 2015 Aug 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25908684

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: To characterize the association of antiretroviral drug combinations on risk of cardiovascular events. METHODS: Certain antiretroviral medications for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) have been implicated in increasing risk of cardiovascular disease. However, antiretroviral drugs are typically prescribed in combination. We characterized the association of current exposure to antiretroviral drug combinations on risk of cardiovascular events including myocardial infarction, stroke, percutaneous coronary intervention, and coronary artery bypass surgery. We used the Veterans Health Administration Clinical Case Registry to analyze data from 24 510 patients infected with HIV from January 1996 through December 2009. We assessed the association of current exposure to 15 antiretroviral drugs and 23 prespecified combinations of agents on the risk of cardiovascular event by using marginal structural models and Cox models extended to accommodate time-dependent variables. RESULTS: Over 164 059 person-years of follow-up, 934 patients had a cardiovascular event. Current exposure to abacavir, efavirenz, lamivudine, and zidovudine was significantly associated with increased risk of cardiovascular event, with odds ratios ranging from 1.40 to 1.53. Five combinations were significantly associated with increased risk of cardiovascular event, all of which involved lamivudine. One of these-efavirenz, lamivudine, and zidovudine-was the second most commonly used combination and was associated with a risk of cardiovascular event that is 1.60 times that of patients not currently exposed to the combination (odds ratio = 1.60, 95% confidence interval, 1.25-2.04). CONCLUSIONS: In the VA cohort, exposure to both individual drugs and drug combinations was associated with modestly increased risk of a cardiovascular event.


Assuntos
Antirretrovirais/efeitos adversos , Doenças Cardiovasculares/induzido quimicamente , Doenças Cardiovasculares/epidemiologia , Infecções por HIV/tratamento farmacológico , Veteranos/estatística & dados numéricos , Adulto , Antirretrovirais/uso terapêutico , Feminino , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Humanos , Estudos Longitudinais , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia
3.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 109(8): 2848-53, 2012 Feb 21.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-22323610

RESUMO

Highly multiplexed assays using antibody coated, fluorescent (xMap) beads are widely used to measure quantities of soluble analytes, such as cytokines and antibodies in clinical and other studies. Current analyses of these assays use methods based on standard curves that have limitations in detecting low or high abundance analytes. Here we describe SAxCyB (Significance Analysis of xMap Cytokine Beads), a method that uses fluorescence measurements of individual beads to find significant differences between experimental conditions. We show that SAxCyB outperforms conventional analysis schemes in both sensitivity (low fluorescence) and robustness (high variability) and has enabled us to find many new differentially expressed cytokines in published studies.


Assuntos
Citocinas/análise , Microesferas , Modelos Estatísticos , Análise Serial de Proteínas/métodos , Animais , Citocinas/sangue , Francisella tularensis/fisiologia , Humanos , Camundongos , Modelos Biológicos , Tularemia/sangue , Tularemia/imunologia
4.
Bioinformatics ; 29(23): 2995-3002, 2013 Dec 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24048356

RESUMO

MOTIVATION: The translational landscape of diverse cellular systems remains largely uncharacterized. A detailed understanding of the control of gene expression at the level of messenger RNA translation is vital to elucidating a systems-level view of complex molecular programs in the cell. Establishing the degree to which such post-transcriptional regulation can mediate specific phenotypes is similarly critical to elucidating the molecular pathogenesis of diseases such as cancer. Recently, methods for massively parallel sequencing of ribosome-bound fragments of messenger RNA have begun to uncover genome-wide translational control at codon resolution. Despite its promise for deeply characterizing mammalian proteomes, few analytical methods exist for the comprehensive analysis of this paired RNA and ribosome data. RESULTS: We describe the Babel framework, an analytical methodology for assessing the significance of changes in translational regulation within cells and between conditions. This approach facilitates the analysis of translation genome-wide while allowing statistically principled gene-level inference. Babel is based on an errors-in-variables regression model that uses the negative binomial distribution and draws inference using a parametric bootstrap approach. We demonstrate the operating characteristics of Babel on simulated data and use its gene-level inference to extend prior analyses significantly, discovering new translationally regulated modules under mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) pathway signaling control.


Assuntos
Perfilação da Expressão Gênica , Sequenciamento de Nucleotídeos em Larga Escala/métodos , Biossíntese de Proteínas/genética , RNA Mensageiro/metabolismo , Ribossomos/metabolismo , Software , Algoritmos , Animais , Códon/metabolismo , Simulação por Computador , Regulação da Expressão Gênica , Humanos , RNA Mensageiro/genética , Ribossomos/genética , Serina-Treonina Quinases TOR/genética , Serina-Treonina Quinases TOR/metabolismo
5.
Bioinformatics ; 27(15): 2038-46, 2011 Aug 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-21666266

RESUMO

MOTIVATION: High-throughput techniques facilitate the simultaneous measurement of DNA copy number at hundreds of thousands of sites on a genome. Older techniques allow measurement only of total copy number, the sum of the copy number contributions from the two parental chromosomes. Newer single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) techniques can in addition enable quantifying parent-specific copy number (PSCN). The raw data from such experiments are two-dimensional, but are unphased. Consequently, inference based on them necessitates development of new analytic methods. METHODS: We have adapted and enhanced the circular binary segmentation (CBS) algorithm for this purpose with focus on paired test and reference samples. The essence of paired parent-specific CBS (Paired PSCBS) is to utilize the original CBS algorithm to identify regions of equal total copy number and then to further segment these regions where there have been changes in PSCN. For the final set of regions, calls are made of equal parental copy number and loss of heterozygosity (LOH). PSCN estimates are computed both before and after calling. RESULTS: The methodology is evaluated by simulation and on glioblastoma data. In the simulation, PSCBS compares favorably to established methods. On the glioblastoma data, PSCBS identifies interesting genomic regions, such as copy-neutral LOH. AVAILABILITY: The Paired PSCBS method is implemented in an open-source R package named PSCBS, available on CRAN (http://cran.r-project.org/).


Assuntos
Algoritmos , Dosagem de Genes , Glioblastoma/genética , Análise de Sequência de DNA/métodos , Alelos , Simulação por Computador , Frequência do Gene , Humanos , Perda de Heterozigosidade , Polimorfismo de Nucleotídeo Único , Software
6.
Circulation ; 121(7): 906-15, 2010 Feb 23.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-20142449

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: In giant cell arteritis (GCA), vasculitic damage of the aorta and its branches is combined with a syndrome of intense systemic inflammation. Therapeutically, glucocorticoids remain the gold standard because they promptly and effectively suppress acute manifestations; however, they fail to eradicate vessel wall infiltrates. The effects of glucocorticoids on the systemic and vascular components of GCA are not understood. METHODS AND RESULTS: The immunoprofile of untreated and glucocorticoid-treated GCA was examined in peripheral blood and temporal artery biopsies with protein quantification assays, flow cytometry, quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction, and immunohistochemistry. Plasma interferon-gamma and interleukin (IL)-17 and frequencies of interferon-gamma-producing and IL-17-producing T cells were markedly elevated before therapy. Glucocorticoid treatment suppressed the Th17 but not the Th1 arm in the blood and the vascular lesions. Analysis of monocytes/macrophages in the circulation and in temporal arteries revealed glucocorticoid-mediated suppression of Th17-promoting cytokines (IL-1beta, IL-6, and IL-23) but sparing of Th1-promoting cytokines (IL-12). In human artery-severe combined immunodeficiency mouse chimeras, in which patient-derived T cells cause inflammation of engrafted human temporal arteries, glucocorticoids were similarly selective in inhibiting Th17 cells and leaving Th1 cells unaffected. CONCLUSIONS: Two pathogenic pathways mediated by Th17 and Th1 cells contribute to the systemic and vascular manifestations of GCA. IL-17-producing Th17 cells are sensitive to glucocorticoid-mediated suppression, but interferon-gamma-producing Th1 responses persist in treated patients. Targeting steroid-resistant Th1 responses will be necessary to resolve chronic smoldering vasculitis. Monitoring Th17 and Th1 frequencies can aid in assessing disease activity in GCA.


Assuntos
Arterite de Células Gigantes/imunologia , Interleucina-17/imunologia , Células Th1/imunologia , Animais , Quimera/sangue , Quimera/imunologia , Modelos Animais de Doenças , Arterite de Células Gigantes/sangue , Arterite de Células Gigantes/tratamento farmacológico , Arterite de Células Gigantes/patologia , Glucocorticoides/farmacologia , Humanos , Interferon gama/sangue , Interferon gama/imunologia , Interleucina-17/sangue , Camundongos
8.
Ann Stat ; 38(3): 1638-1664, 2010 Jun 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-20473354

RESUMO

Standard statistical techniques often require transforming data to have mean 0 and standard deviation 1. Typically, this process of "standardization" or "normalization" is applied across subjects when each subject produces a single number. High throughput genomic and financial data often come as rectangular arrays, where each coordinate in one direction concerns subjects, who might have different status (case or control, say); and each coordinate in the other designates "outcome" for a specific feature, for example "gene," "polymorphic site," or some aspect of financial profile. It may happen when analyzing data that arrive as a rectangular array that one requires BOTH the subjects and features to be "on the same footing." Thus, there may be a need to standardize across rows and columns of the rectangular matrix. There arises the question as to how to achieve this double normalization. We propose and investigate the convergence of what seems to us a natural approach to successive normalization, which we learned from colleague Bradley Efron. We also study the implementation of the method on simulated data and also on data that arose from scientific experimentation.

9.
J Pain Res ; 12: 3231-3244, 2019.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31819607

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Temporal summation (TS) refers to the increased perception of pain with repetitive noxious stimuli. While thermal TS is generally considered a behavioral correlate of spinal windup, noxious heat pulses also trigger additional sensory processes which were modeled in this study. METHODS: Nineteen healthy volunteers (9 females, mean age 29.2, SD 10.5) underwent two identical TS experiments, spaced a week apart. The TS paradigm consisted of 10 identical heat pulses with individualized temperatures at the thenar eminence (0.5Hz). We extracted 3 features from continuous TS response curves: Lag, time to first feel pain; Slope, the rate of pain increase between the first and most painful heat pulse; and Delta, the maximum drop in pain after peak pain is reached. We then examined the within-individual stability of these features, followed by the Pearson's correlations among these features and between the features and negative affect. RESULTS: All 3 features were stable over 1 week. Lag and Delta were negatively correlated (r = -0.5, p = 0.042). Slope did not correlate with Lag or Delta, but strongly correlated with a traditional TS measure, first pulse pain and peak pain difference (r = 0.91, p < 0.0001). Negative affects such as trait and state anxiety were negatively correlated with baseline (r = -0.49, p = 0.031) and peak stimulating temperature (r = -0.48, p = 0.039), respectively, suggesting an association between anxiety and greater pain sensitivity. CONCLUSION: We were able to decouple spinal windup from other perceptual processes generated by phasic thermal TS paradigms and demonstrate temporal stability of these curve features. These curve features may help better characterize the complex sensory response to noxious heat pulses and serve as biomarkers to profile patients with chronic pain.

10.
BMC Cancer ; 8: 66, 2008 Mar 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-18315887

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Current practice is to perform a completion axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) for breast cancer patients with tumor-involved sentinel lymph nodes (SLNs), although fewer than half will have non-sentinel node (NSLN) metastasis. Our goal was to develop new models to quantify the risk of NSLN metastasis in SLN-positive patients and to compare predictive capabilities to another widely used model. METHODS: We constructed three models to predict NSLN status: recursive partitioning with receiver operating characteristic curves (RP-ROC), boosted Classification and Regression Trees (CART), and multivariate logistic regression (MLR) informed by CART. Data were compiled from a multicenter Northern California and Oregon database of 784 patients who prospectively underwent SLN biopsy and completion ALND. We compared the predictive abilities of our best model and the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Breast Cancer Nomogram (Nomogram) in our dataset and an independent dataset from Northwestern University. RESULTS: 285 patients had positive SLNs, of which 213 had known angiolymphatic invasion status and 171 had complete pathologic data including hormone receptor status. 264 (93%) patients had limited SLN disease (micrometastasis, 70%, or isolated tumor cells, 23%). 101 (35%) of all SLN-positive patients had tumor-involved NSLNs. Three variables (tumor size, angiolymphatic invasion, and SLN metastasis size) predicted risk in all our models. RP-ROC and boosted CART stratified patients into four risk levels. MLR informed by CART was most accurate. Using two composite predictors calculated from three variables, MLR informed by CART was more accurate than the Nomogram computed using eight predictors. In our dataset, area under ROC curve (AUC) was 0.83/0.85 for MLR (n = 213/n = 171) and 0.77 for Nomogram (n = 171). When applied to an independent dataset (n = 77), AUC was 0.74 for our model and 0.62 for Nomogram. The composite predictors in our model were the product of angiolymphatic invasion and size of SLN metastasis, and the product of tumor size and square of SLN metastasis size. CONCLUSION: We present a new model developed from a community-based SLN database that uses only three rather than eight variables to achieve higher accuracy than the Nomogram for predicting NSLN status in two different datasets.


Assuntos
Algoritmos , Neoplasias da Mama/patologia , Carcinoma Ductal de Mama/secundário , Metástase Linfática/diagnóstico , Modelos Teóricos , Biópsia de Linfonodo Sentinela , Vasos Sanguíneos/patologia , Carcinoma Ductal de Mama/diagnóstico , Feminino , Humanos , Modelos Logísticos , Excisão de Linfonodo , Estudos Multicêntricos como Assunto/estatística & dados numéricos , Análise Multivariada , Invasividade Neoplásica , Nomogramas , Sistemas On-Line , Valor Preditivo dos Testes , Estudos Prospectivos , Curva ROC , Carga Tumoral
11.
J Hypertens ; 25(5): 985-92, 2007 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-17414662

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: Established determinants of left ventricular (LV) mass explain only a modest fraction of its variability. Family studies to date suggest that a proportion of the unexplained variability can be accounted for by additive polygenic effects. An estimate of this proportion has not been reported previously in an East Asian population. The objective of this study was to estimate the heritability of LV mass in Japanese families living in Hawaii. DESIGN AND METHODS: We analyzed data by components of variance in a sample of 169 hypertensive families (n = 476 subjects) and, separately, in a population-based sample of 256 families (n = 501 subjects) participating in the Honolulu Heart Program. RESULTS: In multivariate models, established predictors of LV mass explained about half the total variance of LV mass. Using SOLAR, our estimates of the narrow sense heritability of LV mass ranged from 42.5% (SE 9.8, P < 0.0001) in our sample of hypertensive families to 60.6% (SE 11.7, P < 0.0001) in our population-based sample of families. Parametric bootstrap analyses confirmed that the inference for each sample was appropriate. CONCLUSIONS: Assuming the absence of shared familial environmental effects, close to half of the unexplained variance of LV mass in Japanese subjects living in Hawaii is genetic in nature. This estimate was observed in two independent samples. Therefore, the pursuit of novel genetic determinants of LV mass through either whole genome or candidate gene association studies of this population may be worthwhile. Such studies are certainly feasible.


Assuntos
Hipertrofia Ventricular Esquerda/genética , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Asiático , Feminino , Havaí , Humanos , Japão/etnologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade
12.
Postgrad Med J ; 83(978): 268-72, 2007 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-17403955

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To develop a core curriculum for orthopaedic surgery and to conduct a national survey to assess the importance of 281 items in the curriculum. Attention was focused specifically on 24 items pertaining to the curriculum that are pertinent to the spine. STUDY DESIGN: A cross-sectional survey of a random sample of orthopaedic surgeons whose primary affiliation was non-academic, representing the provinces and territories of Canada METHODS: A questionnaire containing 281 items was developed. A random group of 131 (out of 156) orthopaedic surgeons whose primary affiliation is non-academic completed the questionnaire. The data were analysed quantitatively using average mean scores, histograms, the modified Hotelling's T2 test and the Benjimini-Hochberg procedure. RESULTS: 131 of 156 (84%) orthopaedic surgeons participated, in this study. 14 of 24 items were ranked at no less than 3 out of 4 thus suggesting that 58% of the items are important or probably important to know by the end of residency (SD< or =0.07). Residents need to learn the diagnosis and principles of managing patients with common conditions of the spine. CONCLUSIONS: The study shows, with reliable statistical evidence, that orthopaedic residents are no longer expected to be able to perform spinal fusions with proficiency on completion of residency. Is the exposure to surgical spine problems and the ability to be comfortable with operating expectations specific to the fellowship level? If so, the focus during residency or increasing accredited spine fellowships needs to be addressed to ensure that enough spine surgeons are educated to meet the future healthcare demands projected for Canada.


Assuntos
Educação de Pós-Graduação em Medicina/normas , Ortopedia/educação , Coluna Vertebral/cirurgia , Canadá , Estudos Transversais , Currículo , Bolsas de Estudo , Humanos , Inquéritos e Questionários
13.
Ann Intern Med ; 144(4): 270-80, 2006 Feb 21.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-16490913

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Mortality from inhalational anthrax during the 2001 U.S. attack was substantially lower than that reported historically. PURPOSE: To systematically review all published inhalational anthrax case reports to evaluate the predictors of disease progression and mortality. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE (1966-2005), 14 selected journal indexes (1900-1966), and bibliographies of all retrieved articles. STUDY SELECTION: Case reports (in any language) between 1900 and 2005 that met predefined criteria. DATA EXTRACTION: Two authors (1 author for non-English-language reports) independently abstracted patient data. DATA SYNTHESIS: The authors found 106 reports of 82 cases of inhalational anthrax. Mortality was statistically significantly lower for patients receiving antibiotics or anthrax antiserum during the prodromal phase of disease, multidrug antibiotic regimens, or pleural fluid drainage. Patients in the 2001 U.S. attack were less likely to die than historical anthrax case-patients (45% vs. 92%; P < 0.001) and were more likely to receive antibiotics during the prodromal phase (64% vs. 13%; P < 0.001), multidrug regimens (91% vs. 50%; P = 0.027), or pleural fluid drainage (73% vs. 11%; P < 0.001). Patients who progressed to the fulminant phase had a mortality rate of 97% (regardless of the treatment they received), and all patients with anthrax meningoencephalitis died. LIMITATIONS: This was a retrospective case review of previously published heterogeneous reports. CONCLUSIONS: Despite advances in supportive care, fulminant-phase inhalational anthrax is usually fatal. Initiation of antibiotic or anthrax antiserum therapy during the prodromal phase is associated with markedly improved survival, although other aspects of care, differences in clinical circumstances, or unreported factors may contribute to this observed reduction in mortality. Efforts to improve early diagnosis and timely initiation of appropriate antibiotics are critical to reducing mortality.


Assuntos
Antraz/mortalidade , Antraz/complicações , Antraz/tratamento farmacológico , Antibacterianos/uso terapêutico , Progressão da Doença , Drenagem , Feminino , Humanos , Imunização Passiva , Masculino , Derrame Pleural/etiologia , Derrame Pleural/terapia , Estudos Retrospectivos , Fatores de Tempo , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia
14.
Foot Ankle Int ; 28(7): 831-7, 2007 Jul.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-17666177

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to develop a core curriculum for orthopaedic surgery and to conduct a national survey to assess the importance of 281 curriculum items. Attention was focused on 45 items pertaining to the foot and ankle. METHODS: A 281-item curriculum was developed. A content review and cross-sectional survey of a random selection of orthopaedic surgeons with primary nonacademic affiliations was completed. Data were analyzed descriptively and quantitatively using histograms, modified Hotelling's T(2)-statistic, and the Benjamini-Hochberg procedure. Our analyses assumed that each respondent answered questions independently of the answers of any other respondent but that the answers to different questions by the same respondent might be dependent. RESULTS: Of the 156 orthopaedic surgeons contacted, 131 (86%) participated in this study. Eighty-two percent (37 of 45) of the items were ranked by respondents with an average mean score higher than 3.5/4.0 and 42 higher than 3.0/40, thus suggesting that 93% of the items are important or probably important to know by the end of residency (p

Assuntos
Tornozelo/cirurgia , Currículo , Pé/cirurgia , Procedimentos Ortopédicos , Canadá , Estudos Transversais , Feminino , Humanos , Internato e Residência , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Inquéritos e Questionários
15.
J Neurosurg Spine ; 27(1): 81-91, 2017 Jul.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28430052

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE The ability to assess the risk of adverse events based on known patient factors and comorbidities would provide more effective preoperative risk stratification. Present risk assessment in spine surgery is limited. An adverse event prediction tool was developed to predict the risk of complications after spine surgery and tested on a prospective patient cohort. METHODS The spinal Risk Assessment Tool (RAT), a novel instrument for the assessment of risk for patients undergoing spine surgery that was developed based on an administrative claims database, was prospectively applied to 246 patients undergoing 257 spinal procedures over a 3-month period. Prospectively collected data were used to compare the RAT to the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and the American College of Surgeons National Surgery Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) Surgical Risk Calculator. Study end point was occurrence and type of complication after spine surgery. RESULTS The authors identified 69 patients (73 procedures) who experienced a complication over the prospective study period. Cardiac complications were most common (10.2%). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were calculated to compare complication outcomes using the different assessment tools. Area under the curve (AUC) analysis showed comparable predictive accuracy between the RAT and the ACS NSQIP calculator (0.670 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in RAT, 0.669 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in NSQIP). The CCI was not accurate in predicting complication occurrence (0.55 [95% CI 0.48-0.62]). The RAT produced mean probabilities of 34.6% for patients who had a complication and 24% for patients who did not (p = 0.0003). The generated predicted values were stratified into low, medium, and high rates. For the RAT, the predicted complication rate was 10.1% in the low-risk group (observed rate 12.8%), 21.9% in the medium-risk group (observed 31.8%), and 49.7% in the high-risk group (observed 41.2%). The ACS NSQIP calculator consistently produced complication predictions that underestimated complication occurrence: 3.4% in the low-risk group (observed 12.6%), 5.9% in the medium-risk group (observed 34.5%), and 12.5% in the high-risk group (observed 38.8%). The RAT was more accurate than the ACS NSQIP calculator (p = 0.0018). CONCLUSIONS While the RAT and ACS NSQIP calculator were both able to identify patients more likely to experience complications following spine surgery, both have substantial room for improvement. Risk stratification is feasible in spine surgery procedures; currently used measures have low accuracy.


Assuntos
Procedimentos Ortopédicos/efeitos adversos , Complicações Pós-Operatórias/diagnóstico , Medição de Risco/métodos , Coluna Vertebral/cirurgia , Área Sob a Curva , Comorbidade , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Prognóstico , Estudos Prospectivos , Curva ROC , Estudos Retrospectivos , Resultado do Tratamento
16.
IEEE Trans Pattern Anal Mach Intell ; 28(5): 766-81, 2006 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-16640262

RESUMO

Nonparametric neighborhood methods for learning entail estimation of class conditional probabilities based on relative frequencies of samples that are "near-neighbors" of a test point. We propose and explore the behavior of a learning algorithm that uses linear interpolation and the principle of maximum entropy (LIME). We consider some theoretical properties of the LIME algorithm: LIME weights have exponential form; the estimates are consistent; and the estimates are robust to additive noise. In relation to bias reduction, we show that near-neighbors contain a test point in their convex hull asymptotically. The common linear interpolation solution used for regression on grids or look-up-tables is shown to solve a related maximum entropy problem. LIME simulation results support use of the method, and performance on a pipeline integrity classification problem demonstrates that the proposed algorithm has practical value.


Assuntos
Algoritmos , Inteligência Artificial , Modelos Lineares , Análise Numérica Assistida por Computador , Simulação por Computador
17.
J Bone Joint Surg Am ; 98(10): 824-34, 2016 May 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27194492

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Postoperative metrics are increasingly important in determining standards of quality for physicians and hospitals. Although complications following spinal surgery have been described, procedural and patient variables have yet to be incorporated into a predictive model of adverse-event occurrence. We sought to develop a predictive model of complication occurrence after spine surgery. METHODS: We used longitudinal prospective data from a national claims database and developed a predictive model incorporating complication type and frequency of occurrence following spine surgery procedures. We structured our model to assess the impact of features such as preoperative diagnosis, patient comorbidities, location in the spine, anterior versus posterior approach, whether fusion had been performed, whether instrumentation had been used, number of levels, and use of bone morphogenetic protein (BMP). We assessed a variety of adverse events. Prediction models were built using logistic regression with additive main effects and logistic regression with main effects as well as all 2 and 3-factor interactions. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regularization was used to select features. Competing approaches included boosted additive trees and the classification and regression trees (CART) algorithm. The final prediction performance was evaluated by estimating the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) as predictions were applied to independent validation data and compared with the Charlson comorbidity score. RESULTS: The model was developed from 279,135 records of patients with a minimum duration of follow-up of 30 days. Preliminary assessment showed an adverse-event rate of 13.95%, well within norms reported in the literature. We used the first 80% of the records for training (to predict adverse events) and the remaining 20% of the records for validation. There was remarkable similarity among methods, with an AUC of 0.70 for predicting the occurrence of adverse events. The AUC using the Charlson comorbidity score was 0.61. The described model was more accurate than Charlson scoring (p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: We present a modeling effort based on administrative claims data that predicts the occurrence of complications after spine surgery. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: We believe that the development of a predictive modeling tool illustrating the risk of complication occurrence after spine surgery will aid in patient counseling and improve the accuracy of risk modeling strategies.


Assuntos
Mineração de Dados/métodos , Bases de Dados Factuais , Complicações Pós-Operatórias/epidemiologia , Coluna Vertebral/cirurgia , Adulto , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Modelos Estatísticos , Medição de Risco , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia
18.
Sci Transl Med ; 8(332): 332ra46, 2016 Mar 30.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27030598

RESUMO

Diversity and size of the antigen-specific T cell receptor (TCR) repertoire are two critical determinants for successful control of chronic infection. Varicella zoster virus (VZV) that establishes latency during childhood can escape control mechanisms, in particular with increasing age. We examined the TCR diversity of VZV-reactive CD4 T cells in individuals older than 50 years by studying three identical twin pairs and three unrelated individuals before and after vaccination with live attenuated VZV. Although all individuals had a small number of dominant T cell clones, the breadth of the VZV-specific repertoire differed markedly. A genetic influence was seen for the sharing of individual TCR sequences from antigen-reactive cells but not for repertoire richness or the selection of dominant clones. VZV vaccination favored the expansion of infrequent VZV antigen-reactive TCRs, including those from naïve T cells with lesser boosting of dominant T cell clones. Thus, vaccination does not reinforce the in vivo selection that occurred during chronic infection but leads to a diversification of the VZV-reactive T cell repertoire. However, a single-booster immunization seems insufficient to establish new clonal dominance. Our results suggest that repertoire analysis of antigen-specific TCRs can be an important readout to assess whether a vaccination was able to generate memory cells in clonal sizes that are necessary for immune protection.


Assuntos
Antígenos Virais/imunologia , Vacina contra Varicela/imunologia , Herpesvirus Humano 3/imunologia , Receptores de Antígenos de Linfócitos T/imunologia , Vacinação , Linfócitos T CD4-Positivos/imunologia , Proliferação de Células , Células Clonais , Humanos , Memória Imunológica
19.
Genome Med ; 7(1): 117, 2015 Nov 19.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26582264

RESUMO

Decline in T-cell generation leading to T-cell receptor repertoire contraction is a cornerstone of immune system aging, and consequent disorders. High-throughput sequencing enables in-depth immune repertoire characterization, but blood samples are too small to capture its total diversity. New computational models could enable accurate estimation of this diversity.


Assuntos
Envelhecimento/genética , Envelhecimento/imunologia , Sequenciamento de Nucleotídeos em Larga Escala/métodos , Receptores de Antígenos de Linfócitos T/genética , Receptores de Antígenos de Linfócitos T/imunologia , Animais , Células Clonais , Variação Genética , Humanos , Camundongos , Linfócitos T/imunologia
20.
Eur J Hum Genet ; 11(3): 271-4, 2003 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-12673281

RESUMO

A combined analysis of genome scans was performed for adult height in the NHLBI Family Blood Pressure Program. Height data were available on 6752 individuals. Linkage analysis was performed first separately for each of the eight ethnic groups in the four networks using the variance component method. To increase the power to detect the common genetic components affecting height for all the individuals, a linkage analysis was performed subsequently for the combined data set by pooling the average allele-sharing IBD () for all groups. By combining the data, we replicated evidence for a QTL influencing adult height on chromosome 7 (7q31) (LOD=2.46), which has been reported in two previous studies. Suggestive linkage (LOD>1) was found in another six regions in our combined analysis. Evidence for linkage for two of these regions (2p12, 20p11) has also been reported previously.


Assuntos
Estatura/genética , Cromossomos Humanos Par 7/genética , Locos de Características Quantitativas/genética , Adulto , Saúde da Família , Feminino , Ligação Genética , Testes Genéticos , Genoma Humano , Humanos , Escore Lod , Masculino , National Institutes of Health (U.S.) , Estados Unidos
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