Anomalously weak Labrador Sea convection and Atlantic overturning during the past 150 years.

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a system of ocean currents that has an essential role in Earth's climate, redistributing heat and influencing the carbon cycle1, 2. The AMOC has been shown to be weakening in recent years 1 ; this decline may reflect decadal-scale variability in convection in the Labrador Sea, but short observational datasets preclude a longer-term perspective on the modern state and variability of Labrador Sea convection and the AMOC1, 3-5. Here we provide several lines of palaeo-oceanographic evidence that Labrador Sea deep convection and the AMOC have been anomalously weak over the past 150 years or so (since the end of the Little Ice Age, LIA, approximately AD 1850) compared with the preceding 1,500 years. Our palaeoclimate reconstructions indicate that the transition occurred either as a predominantly abrupt shift towards the end of the LIA, or as a more gradual, continued decline over the past 150 years; this ambiguity probably arises from non-AMOC influences on the various proxies or from the different sensitivities of these proxies to individual components of the AMOC. We suggest that enhanced freshwater fluxes from the Arctic and Nordic seas towards the end of the LIA-sourced from melting glaciers and thickened sea ice that developed earlier in the LIA-weakened Labrador Sea convection and the AMOC. The lack of a subsequent recovery may have resulted from hysteresis or from twentieth-century melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet 6 . Our results suggest that recent decadal variability in Labrador Sea convection and the AMOC has occurred during an atypical, weak background state. Future work should aim to constrain the roles of internal climate variability and early anthropogenic forcing in the AMOC weakening described here.

North Atlantic forcing of tropical Indian Ocean climate.

The response of the tropical climate in the Indian Ocean realm to abrupt climate change events in the North Atlantic Ocean is contentious. Repositioning of the intertropical convergence zone is thought to have been responsible for changes in tropical hydroclimate during North Atlantic cold spells, but the dearth of high-resolution records outside the monsoon realm in the Indian Ocean precludes a full understanding of this remote relationship and its underlying mechanisms. Here we show that slowdowns of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during Heinrich stadials and the Younger Dryas stadial affected the tropical Indian Ocean hydroclimate through changes to the Hadley circulation including a southward shift in the rising branch (the intertropical convergence zone) and an overall weakening over the southern Indian Ocean. Our results are based on new, high-resolution sea surface temperature and seawater oxygen isotope records of well-dated sedimentary archives from the tropical eastern Indian Ocean for the past 45,000 years, combined with climate model simulations of Atlantic circulation slowdown under Marine Isotope Stages 2 and 3 boundary conditions. Similar conditions in the east and west of the basin rule out a zonal dipole structure as the dominant forcing of the tropical Indian Ocean hydroclimate of millennial-scale events. Results from our simulations and proxy data suggest dry conditions in the northern Indian Ocean realm and wet and warm conditions in the southern realm during North Atlantic cold spells.

Asynchronous warming and δ18O evolution of deep Atlantic water masses during the last deglaciation.

The large-scale reorganization of deep ocean circulation in the Atlantic involving changes in North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) and Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) played a critical role in regulating hemispheric and global climate during the last deglaciation. However, changes in the relative contributions of NADW and AABW and their properties are poorly constrained by marine records, including δ18O of benthic foraminiferal calcite (δ18Oc). Here, we use an isotope-enabled ocean general circulation model with realistic geometry and forcing conditions to simulate the deglacial water mass and δ18O evolution. Model results suggest that, in response to North Atlantic freshwater forcing during the early phase of the last deglaciation, NADW nearly collapses, while AABW mildly weakens. Rather than reflecting changes in NADW or AABW properties caused by freshwater input as suggested previously, the observed phasing difference of deep δ18Oc likely reflects early warming of the deep northern North Atlantic by ∼1.4 °C, while deep Southern Ocean temperature remains largely unchanged. We propose a thermodynamic mechanism to explain the early warming in the North Atlantic, featuring a strong middepth warming and enhanced downward heat flux via vertical mixing. Our results emphasize that the way that ocean circulation affects heat, a dynamic tracer, is considerably different from how it affects passive tracers, like δ18O, and call for caution when inferring water mass changes from δ18Oc records while assuming uniform changes in deep temperatures.

Oceanographic dynamics and the end of the last interglacial in the subpolar North Atlantic.

The last interglacial interval was terminated by the inception of a long, progressive glaciation that is attributed to astronomically influenced changes in the seasonal distribution of sunlight over the earth. However, the feedbacks, internal dynamics, and global teleconnections associated with declining northern summer insolation remain incompletely understood. Here we show that a crucial early step in glacial inception involves the weakening of the subpolar gyre (SPG) circulation of the North Atlantic Ocean. Detailed new records of microfossil foraminifera abundance and stable isotope ratios in deep sea sediments from Ocean Drilling Program site 984 south of Iceland reveal repeated, progressive cold water-mass expansions into subpolar latitudes during the last peak interglacial interval, marine isotope substage 5e. These movements are expressed as a sequence of progressively extensive southward advances and subsequent retreats of a hydrographic boundary that may have been analogous to the modern Arctic front, and associated with rapid changes in the strength of the SPG. This persistent millennial-scale oceanographic oscillation accompanied a long-term cooling trend at a time of slowly declining northern summer insolation, providing an early link in the propagation of those insolation changes globally, and resulting in a rapid transition from extensive regional warmth to the dramatic instability of the subsequent ∼ 100 ka.

2,000-year-long temperature and hydrology reconstructions from the Indo-Pacific warm pool.

Northern Hemisphere surface temperature reconstructions suggest that the late twentieth century was warmer than any other time during the past 500 years and possibly any time during the past 1,300 years (refs 1, 2). These temperature reconstructions are based largely on terrestrial records from extra-tropical or high-elevation sites; however, global average surface temperature changes closely follow those of the global tropics, which are 75% ocean. In particular, the tropical Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) represents a major heat reservoir that both influences global atmospheric circulation and responds to remote northern high-latitude forcings. Here we present a decadally resolved continuous sea surface temperature (SST) reconstruction from the IPWP that spans the past two millennia and overlaps the instrumental record, enabling both a direct comparison of proxy data to the instrumental record and an evaluation of past changes in the context of twentieth century trends. Our record from the Makassar Strait, Indonesia, exhibits trends that are similar to a recent Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction. Reconstructed SST was, however, within error of modern values from about ad 1000 to ad 1250, towards the end of the Medieval Warm Period. SSTs during the Little Ice Age (approximately ad 1550-1850) were variable, and approximately 0.5 to 1 degrees C colder than modern values during the coldest intervals. A companion reconstruction of delta(18)O of sea water-a sea surface salinity and hydrology indicator-indicates a tight coupling with the East Asian monsoon system and remote control of IPWP hydrology on centennial-millennial timescales, rather than a dominant influence from local SST variation.

Surface climate signals transmitted rapidly to deep North Atlantic throughout last millennium.

Instrumental observations of subsurface ocean warming imply that ocean heat uptake has slowed 20th-century surface warming. We present high-resolution records from subpolar North Atlantic sediments that are consistent with instrumental observations of surface and deep warming/freshening and in addition reconstruct the surface-deep relation of the last 1200 years. Sites from ~1300 meters and deeper suggest an ~0.5 degrees celsius cooling across the Medieval Climate Anomaly to Little Ice Age transition that began ~1350 ± 50 common era (CE), whereas surface records suggest asynchronous cooling onset spanning ~600 years. These data suggest that ocean circulation integrates surface variability that is transmitted rapidly to depth by the Atlantic Meridional Ocean Circulation, implying that the ocean moderated Earth's surface temperature throughout the last millennium as it does today.

North Atlantic cooling triggered a zonal mode over the Indian Ocean during Heinrich Stadial 1.

Abrupt changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are thought to affect tropical hydroclimate through adjustment of the latitudinal position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1) involves the largest AMOC reduction in recent geological time; however, over the tropical Indian Ocean (IO), proxy records suggest zonal anomalies featuring intense, widespread drought in tropical East Africa versus generally wet but heterogeneous conditions in the Maritime Continent. Here, we synthesize proxy data and an isotope-enabled transient deglacial simulation and show that the southward ITCZ shift over the eastern IO during HS1 strengthens IO Walker circulation, triggering an east-west precipitation dipole across the basin. This dipole reverses the zonal precipitation anomalies caused by the exposed Sunda and Sahul shelves due to glacial lower sea level. Our study illustrates how zonal modes of atmosphere-ocean circulation can amplify or reverse global climate anomalies, highlighting their importance for future climate change.

Publisher Correction: Glacial-interglacial Nd isotope variability of North Atlantic Deep Water modulated by North American ice sheet.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Glacial-interglacial Nd isotope variability of North Atlantic Deep Water modulated by North American ice sheet.

The Nd isotope composition of seawater has been used to reconstruct past changes in the contribution of different water masses to the deep ocean. In the absence of contrary information, the Nd isotope compositions of endmember water masses are usually assumed constant during the Quaternary. Here we show that the Nd isotope composition of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW), a major component of the global overturning ocean circulation, was significantly more radiogenic than modern during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and shifted towards modern values during the deglaciation. We propose that weathering contributions of unradiogenic Nd modulated by the North American Ice Sheet dominated the evolution of the NADW Nd isotope endmember. If water mass mixing dominated the distribution of deep glacial Atlantic Nd isotopes, our results would imply a larger fraction of NADW in the deep Atlantic during the LGM and deglaciation than reconstructed with a constant northern endmember.

Consistently dated Atlantic sediment cores over the last 40 thousand years.

Rapid changes in ocean circulation and climate have been observed in marine-sediment and ice cores over the last glacial period and deglaciation, highlighting the non-linear character of the climate system and underlining the possibility of rapid climate shifts in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing. To date, these rapid changes in climate and ocean circulation are still not fully explained. One obstacle hindering progress in our understanding of the interactions between past ocean circulation and climate changes is the difficulty of accurately dating marine cores. Here, we present a set of 92 marine sediment cores from the Atlantic Ocean for which we have established age-depth models that are consistent with the Greenland GICC05 ice core chronology, and computed the associated dating uncertainties, using a new deposition modeling technique. This is the first set of consistently dated marine sediment cores enabling paleoclimate scientists to evaluate leads/lags between circulation and climate changes over vast regions of the Atlantic Ocean. Moreover, this data set is of direct use in paleoclimate modeling studies.

Pacific Ocean heat content during the past 10,000 years.

Observed increases in ocean heat content (OHC) and temperature are robust indicators of global warming during the past several decades. We used high-resolution proxy records from sediment cores to extend these observations in the Pacific 10,000 years beyond the instrumental record. We show that water masses linked to North Pacific and Antarctic intermediate waters were warmer by 2.1 ± 0.4°C and 1.5 ± 0.4°C, respectively, during the middle Holocene Thermal Maximum than over the past century. Both water masses were ~0.9°C warmer during the Medieval Warm period than during the Little Ice Age and ~0.65° warmer than in recent decades. Although documented changes in global surface temperatures during the Holocene and Common era are relatively small, the concomitant changes in OHC are large.

South China Sea hydrological changes and Pacific Walker Circulation variations over the last millennium.

The relative importance of north-south migrations of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) versus El Niño-Southern Oscillation and its associated Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC) variability for past hydrological change in the western tropical Pacific is unclear. Here we show that north-south ITCZ migration was not the only mechanism of tropical Pacific hydrologic variability during the last millennium, and that PWC variability profoundly influenced tropical Pacific hydrology. We present hydrological reconstructions from Cattle Pond, Dongdao Island of the South China Sea, where multi-decadal rainfall and downcore grain size variations are correlated to the Southern Oscillation Index during the instrumental era. Our downcore grain size reconstructions indicate that this site received less precipitation during relatively warm periods, AD 1000-1400 and AD 1850-2000, compared with the cool period (AD 1400-1850). Including our new reconstructions in a synthesis of tropical Pacific records results in a spatial pattern of hydrologic variability that implicates the PWC.