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To determine the characteristics of pediatric patients 0-19 years of age who died after onset of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Japan during January 1-September 30, 2022, we reviewed multiple sources. We identified 62 cases, collected detailed information from medical records and death certificates, and conducted interviews, resulting in 53 patients with detailed information for our study. Among 46 patients with internal causes of death (i.e., not external causes such as trauma), 15% were <1 year of age, 59% had no underlying disease, and 88% eligible for vaccination were unvaccinated. Nonrespiratory symptoms were more common than respiratory symptoms. Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest affected 46% of patients, and time from symptom onset to death was <7 days for 77%. Main suspected causes of death were central nervous system abnormalities (35%) and cardiac abnormalities (20%). We recommend careful follow-up of pediatric patients after SARS-CoV-2 infection during the first week after symptom onset, regardless of underlying diseases.
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COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Humanos , COVID-19/mortalidade , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Pré-Escolar , Lactente , Criança , Japão/epidemiologia , Feminino , Masculino , Adolescente , Recém-Nascido , Adulto JovemRESUMO
To determine the effects of age and variants of concern on transmission of SARS-CoV-2, we analyzed infection rates among close contacts over 4 periods in Toyama Prefecture, Japan. Among household contacts, odds of infection were 6.2 times higher during the period of the Omicron variant than during previous periods, particularly among children and adolescents.
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COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Adolescente , Criança , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Japão/epidemiologiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in infants and young children. However, the etiological role of viruses and the timing of developing LRTI are not well defined. METHODS: We analyzed the data of a prospective cohort study in the Philippines as a birth cohort. We detected LRTI among children who visited healthcare facilities with respiratory symptom, and collected nasopharyngeal swabs for virus detection. We analyzed the incidence rates (IRs) and cumulative proportion of LRTI and severe LRTI by age group and each virus detected. RESULTS: A total of 350 LRTI episodes were observed from 473 child-years yielded from 419 children. The IRs of LRTI were 70.8, 70.7, and 80.8 per 100 child-years for 0-5, 6-11, and 12-23 months of age, respectively. By 12 months of age, 45% of children developed LRTI at least once. Rhinovirus and respiratory syncytial virus were the most frequently detected viruses in all age groups. However, the IRs of influenza virus were low especially at 0-5 months of age. CONCLUSIONS: We identified various patterns of age-specific IRs of LRTI and severe LRTI for different viruses, which should be considered to establish more effective interventions including vaccinations.
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Vírus Sincicial Respiratório Humano , Infecções Respiratórias , Coorte de Nascimento , Pré-Escolar , Humanos , Incidência , Lactente , Filipinas/epidemiologia , Estudos Prospectivos , Infecções Respiratórias/epidemiologia , Vírus SatélitesRESUMO
Background: Several studies have reported outbreaks due to human metapneumovirus (hMPV) in long-term care facilities (LTCF) for the elderly. However, most of these reports are epidemiological studies and do not investigate the clinical features of hMPV pneumonia. Methods: Three independent outbreaks of hMPV occurred at separate LTCF for intellectually challenged and elderly residents. A retrospective evaluation of hMPV pneumonia and its clinical and radiological features was conducted using available medical records and data. Results: In 105 hMPV infections, 49% of patients developed pneumonia. The median age of pneumonia cases was significantly higher than non-pneumonia cases (P < .001). Clinical manifestations of hMPV pneumonia included high fever, wheezing in 43%, and respiratory failure in 31% of patients. An elevated number of white blood cells as well as increased levels of C-reactive protein, creatine phosphokinase, and both aspartate and alanine transaminases was also observed among pneumonia cases. Evaluation of chest imaging revealed proximal bronchial wall thickenings radiating outward from the hilum in most patients. Conclusions: The aforementioned characteristics should be considered as representative of hMPV pneumonia. Patients presenting with these features should have laboratory testing performed for prompt diagnosis.
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Surtos de Doenças , Infecções por Paramyxoviridae/epidemiologia , Pneumonia/epidemiologia , Pneumonia/virologia , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Feminino , Humanos , Imunocompetência , Japão/epidemiologia , Assistência de Longa Duração , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Infecções por Paramyxoviridae/virologia , Estudos Retrospectivos , Tomografia Computadorizada por Raios X , Adulto JovemRESUMO
Coxsackievirus (Cox) B is the second common picornaviruses, after echovirus, detected from children younger than 2 months of age. Neonates who present with Cox B3 infection in the first week are known to have severe illness such as myocarditis or menigoencephalitis. Severity is commonly associated with perinatal vertical transmission. Here, we report a neonatal case of Cox B3 infection with severe thrombocytopenia through horizontal transmission. The patient was a preterm infant born without asphyxia by selective cesarean section. From his 6(th) day of life, the patient had recurrent episodes of apnea. At that time, the laboratory investigations revealed a profound thrombocytopenia without any evidence of inflammation. Thus, neonatal alloimmune thrombocytopenia (NAIT) was suspected, and the patient received transfusion of immunoglobulin and platelets. Thereafter, the patient had no further episodes of apnea, and platelet counts of the patient increased gradually. Later, the possibility of NAIT was ruled out by the result of the platelet antigen genotyping of the patient and his parents. Culture obtained from his nasopharynx was positive for Cox B3. We thus speculate that the patient was exposed to the virus from his mother because she had a febrile episode at her 5(th) day after delivery, and her Cox B3 infection was confirmed by serology. Assuming that the thrombocytopenia was a complication of Cox B3 infection, the immunoglobulin transfusion might have provided a neutralizing antibody against Cox B3. It is important to consider the possibility of enterovirus infection as a differential diagnosis whenever unexplained thrombocytopenia was observed in neonates.
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Infecções por Coxsackievirus/complicações , Enterovirus Humano B/fisiologia , Doenças do Recém-Nascido/virologia , Trombocitopenia/complicações , Progressão da Doença , Feminino , Humanos , Recém-Nascido , Masculino , GravidezRESUMO
BACKGROUND: The Great East Japan Earthquake of magnitude 9.0 that struck on 11 March 2011 resulted in more than 18000 deaths or cases of missing persons. The large-scale tsunami that followed the earthquake devastated many coastal areas of the Tohoku region, including Miyagi Prefecture, and many residents of the tsunami-affected areas were compelled to reside in evacuation centres (ECs). In Japan, seasonal influenza epidemics usually occur between December and March. At the time of the Great East Japan Earthquake on 11 March 2011, influenza A (H3N2) was still circulating and there was a heightened concern regarding severe outbreaks due to influenza A (H3N2). METHODS: After local hospital staff and public health nurses detected influenza cases among the evacuees, an outbreak investigation was conducted in five ECs that had reported at least one influenza case from 23 March to 11 April 2011. Cases were confirmed by point-of-care tests and those residues were obtained and subjected to reverse transcription PCR and/or real time RT-PCR for sub-typing of influenza. RESULTS: There were 105 confirmed cases detected during the study period with a mean attack rate of 5.3% (range, 0.8%-11.1%). An epidemiological tree for two ECs demonstrated same-room and familial links that accounted for 88.5% of cases. The majority of cases occurred in those aged 15-64 years, who were likely to have engaged in search and rescue activities. No deaths were reported in this outbreak. Familial link accounted for on average 40.5% of influenza cases in two ECs and rooms where two or more cases were reported accounted for on average 85% in those ECs. A combination of preventative measures, including case cohorting, personal hygiene, wearing masks, and early detection and treatment, were implemented during the outbreak period. CONCLUSIONS: Influenza can cause outbreaks in a disaster setting when the disaster occurs during an epidemic influenza season. The transmission route is more likely to be associated with sharing room and space and with familial links. The importance of influenza surveillance and early treatments should be emphasized in EC settings for implementing preventive control measures.
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Desastres , Surtos de Doenças , Terremotos , Vírus da Influenza A Subtipo H3N2/isolamento & purificação , Influenza Humana/epidemiologia , Adolescente , Adulto , Feminino , Humanos , Incidência , Japão/epidemiologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Trabalho de Resgate , TsunamisRESUMO
Analyzing the evolutionary pattern of the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 strain in different regions is important for understanding its diversification. We therefore conducted this study to elucidate the genetic variability and molecular evolution of the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 strains that circulated during the 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 influenza seasons in Sendai, Japan. Nasopharyngeal swab specimens were collected from patients with influenza-like illnesses who visited outpatient clinics in Sendai City, Japan, from September 2009 to April 2011. A total of 75 isolates were selected from September 2009 to April 2011 to analyze the genetic changes in the entire hemagglutinin 1 (HA1) segment of the HA gene and the neuraminidase (NA) gene based on sequence analysis. Bayesian coalescent Markov chain Monte Carlo analyses of HA1 and NA gene sequences were performed for further analysis. High sequence identities were observed for HA1 and NA in influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, displaying 99.06 and 99.33 % nucleotide identities, respectively, with the A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccine strain A/California/07/2009. The substitution rates of nucleotides for HA1 in the 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 were 1.5 × 10-3 and 1.6 × 10-3 substitutions per site per year, respectively. Phylogenetic tree analysis demonstrated that Sendai isolates were clustered into global clade 7, which is characterized by an S203T mutation in the HA1 gene. Moreover, two distinct circulation clusters were present in the 2010-2011 season. Mutations were present in antigenic or receptor-binding domains of the HA1 segment, including A141V, S143G, S183P, S185T, and S203T. The Bayesian skyline plot model illustrated a steady rate for the maintenance of genetic diversity, followed by a slight increase in the later part of the 2010-2011 season. Selection analysis revealed that the HA1 (position 197) and NA (position 46) sites were under positive selection; however, no known mutation conferring resistance to NA inhibitors such as H275Y was observed. The effect on control of the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus, including vaccine strain selection, requires continuous monitoring of the strain by genetic surveillance.
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Japan implemented its nationwide vaccination program against COVID-19 in 2021, immunizing more than one million people (approximately 1%) a day. However, the direct and indirect impacts of the program at the population level have yet to be fully evaluated. To assess the vaccine effectiveness during the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) epidemic in 2021, we used a renewal process model. A transmission model was fitted to the confirmed cases from 17 February to 30 November 2021. In the absence of vaccination, the cumulative numbers of infections and deaths during the study period were estimated to be 63.3 million (95% confidence interval [CI] 63.2-63.6) and 364,000 (95% CI 363-366), respectively; the actual numbers of infections and deaths were 4.7 million and 10,000, respectively. Were the vaccination implemented 14 days earlier, there could have been 54% and 48% fewer cases and deaths, respectively, than the actual numbers. We demonstrated the very high effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in Japan during 2021, which reduced mortality by more than 97% compared with the counterfactual scenario. The timing of expanding vaccination and vaccine recipients could be key to mitigating the disease burden of COVID-19. Rapid and proper decision making based on firm epidemiological input is vital.
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COVID-19 , Humanos , Japão/epidemiologia , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Vacinas contra COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Vacinação , ReproduçãoRESUMO
Background: The Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 was reported to evade immunity derived from vaccination and previous infection. A better understanding of hybrid immunity informs effective infection control strategies. Since the reinfection risk was not well-assessed in East Asia, this study aims to evaluate the risk of infection with Omicron subvariant BA.5 among previously infected individuals in Japan. Methods: All notified cases were extracted from the Japanese national COVID-19 surveillance database including 20,297,335 records up to 25 September 2022. Reinfection with BA.5 was defined as the infection notified during the BA.5 dominated period with any prior SARS-CoV-2 infection. The protective effect of prior infections against reinfections with BA.5 was estimated by applying a case-population design and the protective effect of vaccination was estimated by a multivariable Cox regression adjusting for age, sex, variants of prior infection, and the time since the last vaccination. Findings: Among 19,830,548 SARS-CoV-2 first infections, 233,424 (1.2%) were reinfected with BA.5. The protective effect against BA.5 reinfection of prior infection with Wuhan strain was 46%, Alpha variant was 35%, Delta variant was 41%, and BA.1/BA.2 subvariant was 74%. The reduced risk of BA.5 reinfection by 7%, 33%, and 66% was associated with two, three, and four doses of vaccination, respectively, compared with one-dose vaccination. Interpretation: The prior infections with Omicron subvariant BA.1/BA.2 protected BA.5 reinfection more than pre-Omicron variants. Increased frequency of vaccination led to more protection from reinfection with BA.5. Up-to-date vaccination may be encouraged to prevent future reinfection among the previously infected population. Funding: None.
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Background: Based on routine surveillance data, Japan has been affected much less by COVID-19 compared with other countries. To validate this, we aimed to estimate SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and examine sociodemographic factors associated with cumulative infection in Japan. Methods: A population-based serial cross-sectional seroepidemiological investigation was conducted in five prefectures in December 2021 (pre-Omicron) and February-March 2022 (Omicron [BA.1/BA.2]-peak). Anti-nucleocapsid and anti-spike antibodies were measured to detect infection-induced and vaccine/infection-induced antibodies, respectively. Logistic regression was used to identify associations between various factors and past infection. Results: Among 16 296 participants (median age: 53 [43-64] years), overall prevalence of infection-induced antibodies was 2.2% (95% CI: 1.9-2.5%) in December 2021 and 3.5% (95% CI: 3.1-3.9%) in February-March 2022. Factors associated with past infection included those residing in urban prefectures (Tokyo: aOR 3.37 [95% CI: 2.31-4.91], Osaka: aOR 3.23 [95% CI: 2.17-4.80]), older age groups (60s: aOR 0.47 [95% CI 0.29-0.74], 70s: aOR 0.41 [95% CI 0.24-0.70]), being vaccinated (twice: aOR 0.41 [95% CI: 0.28-0.61], three times: aOR 0.21 [95% CI: 0.12-0.36]), individuals engaged in occupations such as long-term care workers (aOR: 3.13 [95% CI: 1.47-6.66]), childcare workers (aOR: 3.63 [95% CI: 1.60-8.24]), food service workers (aOR: 3.09 [95% CI: 1.50-6.35]), and history of household contact (aOR: 26.4 [95% CI: 20.0-34.8]) or non-household contact (aOR: 5.21 [95% CI:3.80-7.14]) in February-March 2022. Almost all vaccinated individuals (15 670/15 681) acquired binding antibodies with higher titers among booster dose recipients. Conclusions: Before Omicron, the cumulative burden was >10 times lower in Japan (2.2%) compared with the US (33%), the UK (25%), or global estimates (45%), but most developed antibodies owing to vaccination.
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COVID-19 , Vacinas , Humanos , Idoso , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Japão/epidemiologia , Estudos Transversais , Estudos Soroepidemiológicos , SARS-CoV-2 , Anticorpos AntiviraisRESUMO
Japan has implemented a cluster-based approach for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from the pandemic's beginning based on the transmission heterogeneity (overdispersion) of severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). However, studies analyzing overdispersion of transmission among new variants of concerns (VOCs), especially for Omicron, were limited. Thus, we aimed to clarify how the transmission heterogeneity has changed with the emergence of VOCs (Alpha, Delta, and Omicron) using detailed contact tracing data in Yamagata Prefecture, Japan. We estimated the time-varying dispersion parameter ([Formula: see text]) by fitting a negative binomial distribution for each transmission generation. Our results showed that even after the emergence of VOCs, there was transmission heterogeneity of SARS-CoV-2, with changes in [Formula: see text] during each wave. Continuous monitoring of transmission dynamics is vital for implementing appropriate measures. However, a feasible and sustainable epidemiological analysis system should be established to make this possible.
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COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2/genética , Japão/epidemiologia , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Busca de Comunicante , Taxa RespiratóriaRESUMO
Importance: There have been few studies on the heterogeneous interconnection of COVID-19 outbreaks occurring in different social settings using robust, surveillance epidemiological data. Objectives: To describe the characteristics of COVID-19 transmission within different social settings and to evaluate settings associated with onward transmission to other settings. Design, Setting, and Participants: This is a case series study of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases in Tokyo between January 23 and December 5, 2020, when vaccination was not yet implemented. Using epidemiological investigation data collected by public health centers, epidemiological links were identified and classified into 7 transmission settings: imported, nightlife, dining, workplace, household, health care, and other. Main Outcomes and Measures: The number of cases per setting and the likelihood of generating onward transmissions were compared between different transmission settings. Results: Of the 44â¯054 confirmed COVID-19 cases in this study, 25â¯241 (57.3%) were among male patients, and the median (IQR) age of patients was 36 (26-52) years. Transmission settings were identified in 13â¯122 cases, including 6768 household, 2733 health care, and 1174 nightlife cases. More than 6600 transmission settings were detected, and nightlife (72 of 380 [18.9%]; P < .001) and health care (119 [36.2%]; P < .001) settings were more likely to involve 5 or more cases than dining, workplace, household, and other settings. Nightlife cases appeared in the earlier phase of the epidemic, while household and health care cases appeared later. After adjustment for transmission setting, sex, age group, presence of symptoms, and wave, household and health care cases were less likely to generate onward transmission compared with nightlife cases (household: adjusted odds ratio, 0.03; 95% CI, 0.02-0.05; health care: adjusted odds ratio, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.41-0.79). Household settings were associated with intergenerational transmission, while nonhousehold settings mainly comprised transmission between the same age group. Among 30â¯932 cases without identified transmission settings, cases with a history of visiting nightlife establishments were more likely to generate onward transmission to nonhousehold settings (adjusted odds ratio, 5.30 [95% CI, 4.64-6.05]; P < .001) than those without such history. Conclusions and Relevance: In this case series study, COVID-19 cases identified in nightlife settings were associated with a higher likelihood of spreading COVID-19 than household and health care cases. Surveillance and interventions targeting nightlife settings should be prioritized to disrupt COVID-19 transmission, especially in the early stage of an epidemic.
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COVID-19 , Humanos , Masculino , Adulto , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , SARS-CoV-2 , Tóquio , Japão , Surtos de DoençasRESUMO
Rapid molecular testing for severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants may contribute to the development of public health measures, particularly in resource-limited areas. Reverse transcription recombinase polymerase amplification using a lateral flow assay (RT-RPA-LF) allows rapid RNA detection without thermal cyclers. In this study, we developed two assays to detect SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid (N) gene and Omicron BA.1 spike (S) gene-specific deletion-insertion mutations (del211/ins214). Both tests had a detection limit of 10 copies/µL in vitro and the detection time was approximately 35 min from incubation to detection. The sensitivities of SARS-CoV-2 (N) RT-RPA-LF by viral load categories were 100% for clinical samples with high (>9015.7 copies/µL, cycle quantification (Cq): < 25) and moderate (385.5-9015.7 copies/µL, Cq: 25-29.9) viral load, 83.3% for low (16.5-385.5 copies/µL, Cq: 30-34.9), and 14.3% for very low (<16.5 copies/µL, Cq: 35-40). The sensitivities of the Omicron BA.1 (S) RT-RPA-LF were 94.9%, 78%, 23.8%, and 0%, respectively, and the specificity against non-BA.1 SARS-CoV-2-positive samples was 96%. The assays seemed more sensitive than rapid antigen detection in moderate viral load samples. Although implementation in resource-limited settings requires additional improvements, deletion-insertion mutations were successfully detected by the RT-RPA-LF technique.
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COVID-19 , Transcrição Reversa , Humanos , Recombinases/genética , RNA Viral/genética , SARS-CoV-2/genética , Sensibilidade e Especificidade , Mutagênese Insercional , COVID-19/diagnóstico , COVID-19/genética , Técnicas de Amplificação de Ácido Nucleico/métodos , Nucleotidiltransferases/genéticaRESUMO
Background: In Japan, vaccination against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was initiated on 17 February 2021, mainly using messenger RNA vaccines and prioritizing health care professionals. Whereas nationwide vaccination alleviated the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related burden, the population impact has yet to be quantified in Japan. We aimed to estimate the numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths prevented that were attributable to the reduced risk among vaccinated individuals via a statistical modeling framework. Methods: We analyzed confirmed cases registered in the Health Center Real-time Information-sharing System on COVID-19 (3 March-30 November 2021) and publicly reported COVID-19-related deaths (24 March-30 November 2021). The vaccination coverage over this time course, classified by age and sex, was extracted from vaccine registration systems. The total numbers of prevented cases and deaths were calculated by multiplying the daily risk differences between unvaccinated and vaccinated individuals by the population size of vaccinated individuals. Findings: For both cases and deaths, the averted numbers were estimated to be the highest among individuals aged 65 years and older. In total, we estimated that 564,596 (95% confidence interval: 477,020-657,525) COVID-19 cases and 18,622 (95% confidence interval: 6522-33,762) deaths associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection were prevented owing to vaccination during the analysis period (i.e., fifth epidemic wave, caused mainly by the Delta variant). Female individuals were more likely to be protected from infection following vaccination than male individuals whereas more deaths were prevented in male than in female individuals. Interpretation: The vaccination program in Japan led to substantial reductions in the numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths (33% and 67%, respectively). The preventive effect will be further amplified during future pandemic waves caused by variants with shared antigenicity. Funding: This project was supported by the Japan Science and Technology Agency; the Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development; the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science; and the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare.
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BACKGROUND: Quantifying the impact on COVID-19 transmission from a single event has been difficult due to the virus transmission dynamics, such as lag from exposure to reported infection, non-linearity arising from the person-to-person transmission, and the modifying effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions over time. To address these issues, we aimed to estimate the COVID-19 transmission risk of social events focusing on the Japanese Coming-of-Age Day and Coming-of-Age ceremony in which "new adults" practice risky behavior on that particular day. METHODS: Using national surveillance data in Japan in 2021 and 2022, we conducted difference-in-differences regression against COVID-19 incidences by setting "new adults" cases as the treatment group and the cases 1 year younger or older than these "new adults" as the control group. In addition, we employed a triple differences approach to estimate the risk of holding the Coming-Age ceremony by using a binary variable regarding the presence or absence of the ceremony in each municipality. RESULTS: We estimated the relative risks (RRs) of the Coming-of-Age Day as 1.27 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02-1.57) in 2021 and 3.22 (95% CI 2.68-3.86) in 2022. The RR of the Coming-of-Age ceremony was also large, estimated as 2.83 (1.81-4.43) in 2022. CONCLUSIONS: When planning large social events, it is important to be aware of the unique risks associated with these gatherings, along with effective public health messages to best communicate these risks.
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COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Adulto , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Humanos , Incidência , Japão/epidemiologia , Saúde PúblicaRESUMO
OBJECTIVES: Super-spreading events caused by overdispersed secondary transmission are crucial in the transmission of COVID-19. However, the exact level of overdispersion, demographics, and other factors associated with secondary transmission remain elusive. In this study, we aimed to elucidate the frequency and patterns of secondary transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Japan. METHODS: We analyzed 16,471 cases between January 2020 and August 2020. We generated the number of secondary cases distribution and estimated the dispersion parameter (k) by fitting the negative binomial distribution in each phase. The frequencies of the secondary transmission were compared by demographic and clinical characteristics, calculating the odds ratio using logistic regression models. RESULTS: We observed that 76.7% of the primary cases did not generate secondary cases with an estimated dispersion parameter k of 0.23. The demographic patterns of primary-secondary cases differed between phases, with 20-69 years being the predominant age group. There were higher proportions of secondary transmissions among older individuals, symptomatic patients, and patients with 2 days or more between onset and confirmation. CONCLUSIONS: The study showed the estimation of the frequency of secondary transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and the characteristics of people who generated the secondary transmission.
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COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Demografia , Humanos , Japão/epidemiologiaRESUMO
Objective: Monitoring the prevalence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants is important due to concerns regarding infectivity, transmissibility, immune evasion and disease severity. We evaluated the temporal and regional replacement of previous SARS-CoV-2 variants by the emergent strains, Alpha and Delta. Methods: We obtained the results of polymerase chain reaction screening tests for variants conducted in multiple commercial laboratories. Assuming that all previous strains would be replaced by one variant, the new variant detection rate was estimated by fitting a logistic growth model. We estimated the transmission advantage of each new variant over the pre-existing virus strains. Results: The variant with the N501Y mutation was first identified in the Kinki region in early February 2021, and by early May, it had replaced more than 90% of the previous strains. The variant with the L452R mutation was first detected in the Kanto-Koshin region in mid-May, and by early August, it comprised more than 90% of the circulating strains. Compared with pre-existing strains, the variant with the N501Y mutation showed transmission advantages of 48.2% and 40.3% in the Kanto-Koshin and Kinki regions, respectively, while the variant with the L452R mutation showed transmission advantages of 60.1% and 71.9%, respectively. Discussion: In Japan, Alpha and Delta variants displayed regional differences in the replacement timing and their relative transmission advantages. Our method is efficient in monitoring and estimating changes in the proportion of variant strains in a timely manner in each region.
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COVID-19 , Humanos , Japão/epidemiologia , COVID-19/epidemiologia , SARS-CoV-2/genética , MutaçãoRESUMO
Background: Public health and social measures (PHSM) against COVID-19 in Japan involve requesting the public to voluntarily reduce social contact; these measures are not legally binding. The effectiveness of such PHSM has been questioned with emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant (B.1.1.7), which exhibited elevated transmissibility. Materials and Methods: We investigated the epidemic dynamics during the fourth epidemic wave in Japan from March to June 2021 involving pre-emergency measures and declaration of a state of emergency (SoE). We estimated the effective reproduction number (R t ) before and after these interventions, and then analyzed the relationship between lower R t values and each PHSM. Results: With implementation of pre-emergency measures (PEM) in 16 prefectures, the R t was estimated to be < 1 in six prefectures; its average relative reduction ranged from 2 to 19%. During the SoE, 8 of 10 prefectures had an estimated R t < 1, and the average relative reduction was 26%-39%. No single intervention was identified that uniquely resulted in an R t value < 1. Conclusion: An SoE can substantially reduce the R t and may be required to curb a surge in cases caused by future SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern with elevated transmissibility. More customized interventions did not reduce the R t value to < 1 in this study, but that may be partly attributable to the greater transmissibility of the Alpha variant.
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In response to the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Japan, a national COVID-19 cluster taskforce (comprising governmental and nongovernmental experts) was established to support the country's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare in conducting daily risk assessment. The assessment was carried out using established infectious disease surveillance systems; however, in the initial stages of the pandemic these were not sufficient for real-time risk assessment owing to limited accessibility, delay in data entry and inadequate case information. Also, local governments were publishing anonymized data on confirmed COVID-19 cases on their official web sites as daily press releases. We developed a unique database for nationwide real-time risk assessment that included these case lists from local government web sites and integrated all case data into a standardized format. The database was updated daily and checked systematically to ensure comprehensiveness and quality. Between 15 January 2020 and 15 June 2021, 776 459 cases were logged in the database, allowing for analysis of real-time risk from the pandemic. This semi-automated database was used in daily risk assessments, and to evaluate and update control measures to prevent community transmission of COVID-19 in Japan. The data were reported almost every week to the Japanese Government Advisory Panel on COVID-19 for public health responses.
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COVID-19 , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Humanos , Japão/epidemiologia , Pandemias , Saúde Pública , Medição de RiscoRESUMO
INTRODUCTION: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused unprecedented global morbidity and mortality. Japan has faced three epidemic "waves" of COVID-19 from early 2020 through early 2021. Here we narratively review the three waves in Japan, describe the key epidemiologic features of COVID-19, and discuss lessons learned. METHODS: We assessed publicly available surveillance data, routine surveillance reports, and other relevant sources-multiple indicators were monitored to improve interpretation of surveillance data. Weekly trends for each wave were described based on the number of case notifications; number of tests performed; proportion of those tests that were positive for the novel coronavirus; the prevalent number of COVID-19 hospitalizations (total hospitalizations and those categorized as severe); and number of COVID-19 deaths. For each indicator and wave, we recorded the first calendar week to show an increase over two consecutive previous weeks, along with the peak week. RESULTS: The spring wave was characterized by detection of cases imported from China, followed by notifications of sporadic cases without travel history, clusters, and mild/asymptomatic cases. The summer wave saw a large increase in notifications and a younger age distribution, but in the context of increased testing with lower test positivity. The winter wave brought considerable morbidity and mortality, surpassing the cumulative case counts and fatalities from the earlier waves, with high peak values. Overall, relative to the first wave, the burden of severe outcomes was lower in the second and higher in the third wave, but varied by prefecture. In all three waves, severe outcomes peaked after notification counts and test positivity peaked; severe outcomes were also consistently skewed toward the elderly. CONCLUSIONS: Important lessons were learned from each wave and across waves-some aspects remained constant, while others changed over time. In order to rapidly detect an increase in incidence, continuous, timely, and sensitive surveillance-using multiple information sources with careful interpretations-will be key in COVID-19 control.