Cancer Risks Associated With TP53 Pathogenic Variants: Maximum Likelihood Analysis of Extended Pedigrees for Diagnosis of First Cancers Beyond the Li-Fraumeni Syndrome Spectrum.

PURPOSE: Establishing accurate age-related penetrance figures for the broad range of cancer types that occur in individuals harboring a pathogenic germline variant in the TP53 gene is essential to determine the most effective clinical management strategies. These figures also permit optimal use of cosegregation data for classification of TP53 variants of unknown significance. Penetrance estimation can easily be affected by bias from ascertainment criteria, an issue not commonly addressed by previous studies. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We performed a maximum likelihood penetrance estimation using full pedigree data from a multicenter study of 146 TP53-positive families, incorporating adjustment for the effect of ascertainment and population-specific background cancer risks. The analysis included pedigrees from Australia, Spain, and United States, with phenotypic information for 4,028 individuals. RESULTS: Core Li-Fraumeni syndrome (LFS) cancers (breast cancer, adrenocortical carcinoma, brain cancer, osteosarcoma, and soft tissue sarcoma) had the highest hazard ratios of all cancers analyzed in this study. The analysis also detected a significantly increased lifetime risk for a range of cancers not previously formally associated with TP53 pathogenic variant status, including colorectal, gastric, lung, pancreatic, and ovarian cancers. The cumulative risk of any cancer type by age 50 years was 92.4% (95% CI, 82.2 to 98.3) for females and 59.7% (95% CI, 39.9 to 81.3) for males. Females had a 63.3% (95% CI, 35.6 to 90.1) cumulative risk of developing breast cancer by age 50 years. CONCLUSION: The results from maximum likelihood analysis confirm the known high lifetime risk for the core LFS-associated cancer types providing new risk estimates and indicate significantly increased lifetime risks for several additional cancer types. Accurate cancer risk estimates will help refine clinical recommendations for TP53 pathogenic variant carriers and improve TP53 variant classification.

Adenomas from individuals with pathogenic biallelic variants in the MUTYH and NTHL1 genes demonstrate base excision repair tumour mutational signature profiles similar to colorectal cancers, expanding potential diagnostic and variant classification applications.

Background: Colorectal cancers (CRCs) from people with biallelic germline likely pathogenic/pathogenic variants in MUTYH or NTHL1 exhibit specific single base substitution (SBS) mutational signatures, namely combined SBS18 and SBS36 (SBS18+SBS36), and SBS30, respectively. The aim was to determine if adenomas from biallelic cases demonstrated these mutational signatures at diagnostic levels. Methods: Whole-exome sequencing of FFPE tissue and matched blood-derived DNA was performed on 9 adenomas and 15 CRCs from 13 biallelic MUTYH cases, on 7 adenomas and 2 CRCs from 5 biallelic NTHL1 cases and on 27 adenomas and 26 CRCs from 46 non-hereditary (sporadic) participants. All samples were assessed for COSMIC v3.2 SBS mutational signatures. Results: In biallelic MUTYH cases, SBS18+SBS36 signature proportions in adenomas (mean±standard deviation, 65.6%±29.6%) were not significantly different to those observed in CRCs (76.2%±20.5%, p-value=0.37), but were significantly higher compared with non-hereditary adenomas (7.6%±7.0%, p-value=3.4×10-4). Similarly, in biallelic NTHL1 cases, SBS30 signature proportions in adenomas (74.5%±9.4%) were similar to those in CRCs (78.8%±2.4%) but significantly higher compared with non-hereditary adenomas (2.8%±3.6%, p-value=5.1×10-7). Additionally, a compound heterozygote with the c.1187G>A p.(Gly396Asp) pathogenic variant and the c.533G>C p.(Gly178Ala) variant of unknown significance (VUS) in MUTYH demonstrated high levels of SBS18+SBS36 in four adenomas and one CRC, providing evidence for reclassification of the VUS to pathogenic. Conclusions: SBS18+SBS36 and SBS30 were enriched in adenomas at comparable proportions observed in CRCs from biallelic MUTYH and biallelic NTHL1 cases, respectively. Therefore, testing adenomas may improve the identification of biallelic cases and facilitate variant classification, ultimately enabling opportunities for CRC prevention.