Neutralizing antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant after third mRNA vaccination in health care workers and elderly subjects.

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) with major spike protein mutations has raised concern over potential neutralization escape and breakthrough infections among vaccinated and previously SARS-CoV-2-infected subjects. We measured cross-protective antibodies against variants in health care workers (HCW, n = 20) and nursing home residents (n = 9) from samples collected at 1-2 months, following the booster (3rd) dose. We also assessed the antibody responses in subjects infected before the Omicron era (n = 38) with subsequent administration of a single mRNA vaccine dose. Following booster vaccination, HCWs had high IgG antibody concentrations to the spike protein and neutralizing antibodies (NAb) were detectable against all variants. IgG concentrations among the elderly remained lower, and some lacked NAbs against the Beta and Omicron variants. NAb titers were significantly reduced against Delta, Beta, and Omicron compared to WT virus regardless of age. Vaccination induced high IgG concentrations and variable titers of cross-reactive NAbs in previously infected subjects, whereas NAb titers against Omicron were barely detectable 1 month postinfection. High IgG concentrations with cross-protective neutralizing activity were detected after three Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine doses in HCWs. However, lower NAb titers seen in the frail elderly suggest inadequate protection against Omicron breakthrough infections, yet protection against severe COVID-19 is expected.

Persistence of neutralizing antibodies a year after SARS-CoV-2 infection in humans.

Most subjects develop antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 following infection. In order to estimate the duration of immunity induced by SARS-CoV-2 it is important to understand for how long antibodies persist after infection in humans. Here, we assessed the persistence of serum antibodies following WT SARS-CoV-2 infection at 8 and 13 months after diagnosis in 367 individuals. The SARS-CoV-2 spike IgG (S-IgG) and nucleoprotein IgG (N-IgG) concentrations and the proportion of subjects with neutralizing antibodies (NAb) were assessed. Moreover, the NAb titers among a smaller subset of participants (n = 78) against a WT virus (B) and variants of concern (VOCs): Alpha (B.1.1.7), Beta (B.1.351), and Delta (B.1.617.2) were determined. We found that NAb against the WT virus persisted in 89% and S-IgG in 97% of subjects for at least 13 months after infection. Only 36% had N-IgG by 13 months. The mean S-IgG concentrations declined from 8 to 13 months by less than one third; N-IgG concentrations declined by two-thirds. Subjects with severe infection had markedly higher IgG and NAb levels and are expected to remain seropositive for longer. Significantly lower NAb titers against the variants compared to the WT virus, especially after a mild disease, suggests reduced protection against VOCs.

High vaccine effectiveness against severe COVID-19 in the elderly in Finland before and after the emergence of Omicron.

BACKGROUND: The elderly are highly vulnerable to severe COVID-19. Waning immunity and emergence of Omicron have caused concerns about reduced effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines. The objective was to estimate vaccine effectiveness (VE) against severe COVID-19 among the elderly. METHODS: This nationwide, register-based cohort analysis included all residents aged 70 years and over in Finland. The follow-up started on December 27, 2020, and ended on March 31, 2022. The outcomes of interest were COVID-19-related hospitalization and intensive care unit (ICU) admission timely associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. VE was estimated as one minus the hazard ratio comparing the vaccinated and unvaccinated and taking into account time since vaccination. Omicron-specific VE was evaluated as the effectiveness observed since January 1, 2022. RESULTS: The cohort included 896,220 individuals. Comirnaty (BioNTech/Pfizer) VE against COVID-19-related hospitalization was 93% (95% CI 89-95%) and 85% (95% CI 82-87%) 14-90 and 91-180 days after the second dose; VE increased to 95% (95% CI 94-96%) 14-60 days after the third dose. VE of other homologous and heterologous three dose series was similar. Protection against severe COVID-19 requiring ICU treatment was even better. Since January 1, 2022, Comirnaty VE was 98% (95% CI 92-99%) and 92% (95% CI 87-95%) 14-90 and 91-180 days after the second and 98% (95% CI 95-99%) 14-60 days after the third dose. CONCLUSIONS: VE against severe COVID-19 is high among the elderly. It waned slightly after two doses, but a third restored the protection. VE against severe COVID-19 remained high even after the emergence of Omicron.

Culture of all sputum samples irrespective of quality adds value to the diagnosis of pneumococcal community-acquired pneumonia in the elderly.

Culture of expectorated sputum in the microbiological diagnosis of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is considered valid only if high-quality (HQ) samples are obtained, but evidence regarding pneumococcal etiology specifically is lacking. We studied 323 radiologically confirmed CAP cases in patients aged ≥ 65 years. Sputum samples were assessed for quality microscopically and cultured. Two quality criteria sets were applied to delineate HQ from low-quality (LQ) sputa: leukocytes/epithelial cells ratio > 5 and ≤ 2.5 epithelial cells/400× magnification field (HQ1), or leukocytes/epithelial cells ratio > 1 (HQ2). A sputum sample was obtained and the quality assessed in 224 cases; 47% were HQ1 and 76% HQ2. Encapsulated pneumococci (EPnc) were cultured in 25 (24%), 14 (12%), 35 (21%), and 4 (7%) of the HQ1-, LQ1-, HQ2-, and LQ2-samples, respectively. If another pneumococcal test (blood culture, urine antigen, or ≥ twofold increase in CbpA or PsaA antibodies) was positive, EPnc were cultured at similar proportions in HQ1- and LQ1-sputa; if the other test was negative, EPnc were cultured less often in LQ1- than HQ1-sputa. EPnc were found less often in LQ2- than in HQ2-sputa. Our results suggest similar specificity in LQ- and HQ-sputum cultures. All sputum samples add value to the pneumococcal CAP-diagnosis in the elderly.

Testing Pneumonia Vaccines in the Elderly: Determining a Case Definition for Pneumococcal Pneumonia in the Absence of a Gold Standard.

Clinical assessments of vaccines to prevent pneumococcal community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) require sensitive and specific case definitions, but there is no gold standard diagnostic test. To develop a new case definition suitable for vaccine efficacy studies, we applied latent class analysis (LCA) to the results from 7 diagnostic tests for pneumococcal etiology on clinical specimens from 323 elderly persons with radiologically confirmed pneumonia enrolled in the Finnish Community-Acquired Pneumonia Epidemiology study during 2005-2007. Compared with the conventional use of LCA, which is mainly to determine sensitivities and specificities of different tests, we instead used LCA as an appropriate instrument to predict the probability of pneumococcal etiology for each CAP case based on individual test profiles, and we used the predictions to minimize the sample size that would be needed for a vaccine efficacy trial. When compared with the conventional laboratory criteria of encapsulated pneumococci in culture, in blood culture or high-quality sputum culture, or urine antigen positivity, our optimized case definition for pneumococcal CAP resulted in a trial sample size that was almost 20,000 subjects smaller. We believe that the novel application of LCA detailed here to determine a case definition for pneumococcal CAP could also be similarly applied to other diseases without a gold standard.

Population-level impact of infant 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccination on adult pneumonia hospitalisations in Finland.

INTRODUCTION: Limited data are available on population-level herd effects of infant 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) programmes on pneumonia. We assessed national trends in pneumococcal and all-cause pneumonia hospitalisations in adults aged ≥18 years, before and after infant PCV10 introduction in 2010. METHODS: Monthly hospitalisation rates of International Statistical Classification of Diseases, 10th revision (ICD-10)-coded primary discharge diagnoses compatible with pneumonia from 2004-2005 to 2014-2015 were calculated with population denominators from the population register. Trends in pneumonia before and after PCV10 introduction were assessed with interrupted time-series analysis. Rates during the PCV10 period were estimated from adjusted negative binomial regression model and compared with those projected as continuation of the pre-PCV10 trend. All-cause hospitalisations were assessed for control purposes. RESULTS: Before PCV10, the all-cause pneumonia rate in adults aged ≥18 years increased annually by 2.4%, followed by a 4.7% annual decline during the PCV10 period. In 2014-2015, the overall all-cause pneumonia hospitalisation rate was 109.3/100 000 (95% CI 96.5 to 121.9) or 15.4% lower than the expected rate. A significant 6.7% decline was seen in persons aged ≥65 years (131.5/100 000), which translates to 1456 fewer pneumonia hospitalisations annually. In comparison, hospitalisations other than pneumonia decreased by 3.5% annually throughout the entire study period. CONCLUSION: These national data suggest that herd protection from infant PCV10 programme has reversed the increasing trend and substantially decreased all-cause pneumonia hospitalisations in adults, particularly the elderly.

lytA Quantitative PCR on Sputum and Nasopharyngeal Swab Samples for Detection of Pneumococcal Pneumonia among the Elderly.

Real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR) assay of sputum or nasopharyngeal specimens has shown promising results in the detection of pneumococcal community-acquired pneumonia (PncCAP). We applied qPCR for the autolysin gene (lytA) and compared sputum and nasopharyngeal swab (NPS) pneumococcal loads in elderly patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), and specifically in patients with PncCAP, to those in patient groups with other respiratory diseases. We studied patients aged ≥65 years with radiologically confirmed CAP, clinical CAP not retrospectively radiologically confirmed, other acute respiratory infections, or stable chronic lung disease. Pneumococcal etiology of CAP was ascertained by using a combination of multiple diagnostic methods. We analyzed sputum and NPS specimens by lytA qPCR with 104 pneumococcal genome equivalents (GE)/ml as a cutoff for positivity. Among PncCAP patients, lytA qPCR detected pneumococci in 94% of the sputum samples and in large quantities (mean, 6.82 ± 1.02 log10 GE/ml) but less frequently in NPS (44%) and in smaller quantities (5.55 ± 0.92 log10 GE/ml). In all other patient groups, ≤10% of the sputum samples and <5% of the NPS samples were lytA qPCR positive; but when they were positive, the sputum pneumococcal loads were similar to those in the PncCAP patients, suggesting a pneumococcal etiology in these patients. This was supported by other pneumococcal assay results. Overall, sputum lytA qPCR positivity was more common in PncCAP patients than in the other patient groups, but the quantitative results were mainly similar. NPS lytA qPCR was less sensitive than sputum lytA qPCR in detecting PncCAP.

Similar Antibody Levels in 3-Year-Old Children Vaccinated Against Measles, Mumps, and Rubella at the Age of 12 Months or 18 Months.

BACKGROUND: Measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccinations have been offered to Finnish children at 14-18 months and 6 years of age. In May 2011, the recommended age for the first vaccine dose was lowered to 12 months because of the European measles epidemic. METHODS: Fingertip capillary blood samples were collected from 3-year-old Finnish children vaccinated once with MMR vaccine at 11-19 months of age. The immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies to all 3 MMR antigens were measured with enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Neutralizing antibodies and the avidity of antibodies were measured for measles virus. RESULTS: From April through October 2013, 187 children were enrolled. Equally high proportions of the samples were seropositive for measles virus, mumps virus, or rubella virus antibodies, and there were no significant differences in the IgG antibody concentrations in children vaccinated at 11-13 months of age, compared with those vaccinated at 17-19 months of age. However, among children vaccinated at 11-13 months of age, boys had lower antibody concentrations than girls. Neutralizing measles virus antibody titers were above the threshold for protective immunity in all 78 samples analyzed. The measles virus antibody avidity indexes were high for all children. CONCLUSIONS: MMR induces similar antibody responses in 12-month-old children as compared to 18-month-old children, but in boys increasing age appears to improve the antibody responses.

Effectiveness of the ten-valent pneumococcal Haemophilus influenzae protein D conjugate vaccine (PHiD-CV10) against invasive pneumococcal disease: a cluster randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: The Finnish Invasive Pneumococcal disease (FinIP) vaccine trial was designed to assess the effectiveness of a pneumococcal vaccine containing ten serotype-specific polysaccharides conjugated to Haemophilus influenzae protein D, tetanus toxoid, and diphtheria toxoid as the carrier proteins (PHiD-CV10) against invasive pneumococcal disease. METHODS: In this cluster-randomised, double-blind trial, children aged younger than 19 months received PHiD-CV10 in 52 clusters or hepatitis vaccines as control in 26 clusters. Infants aged younger than 7 months at the first vaccination received either a 3+1 or a 2+1 vaccination schedule, children aged 7-11 months received a 2+1 schedule, and those 12-18 months of age received a two-dose schedule. The primary and secondary objectives were to assess vaccine effectiveness against culture-confirmed invasive pneumococcal disease due to any of the ten vaccine serotypes for the 3+1 and 2+1 schedules, respectively, in children who received at least one PHiD-CV10 dose before 7 months of age. Masked follow-up of pneumococcal disease lasted from the first vaccination (from February, 2009, to October, 2010) to January 31, 2012. Invasive disease data were retrieved from data accumulated in the national infectious diseases register. This trial and the nested acute otitis media trial are registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, numbers NCT00861380 and NCT00839254, respectively. FINDINGS: 47,369 children were enrolled from February, 2009, to October, 2010. 30,528 participants were assessed for the primary objective. 13 culture-confirmed vaccine-type cases of invasive pneumococcal disease were detected: none in the PHiD-CV10 3+1 group, one in the PHiD-CV10 2+1 group, and 12 in the control groups. The estimates for vaccine effectiveness were 100% (95% CI 83-100) for PHiD-CV10 3+1 and 92% (58-100) for PHiD-CV10 2+1 groups. Two cases of any culture-confirmed invasive disease irrespective of serotype were detected in combined PHiD-CV10 infant cohorts compared with 14 in the corresponding control cohorts (vaccine effectiveness 93%, 75-99). In catch-up cohorts, seven cases of invasive disease were reported, all in the control group: two cases in the children enrolled at 7-11 months of age; and five cases in children enrolled at 12-18 months of age (vaccine effectiveness 100%, 79-100). Non-fatal serious adverse events suspected to be vaccine-related were reported via routine post-immunisation safety surveillance in 18 children. INTERPRETATION: This nationwide trial showed high PHiD-CV10 effectiveness against invasive pneumococcal disease when given in different schedules. For the first time, effectiveness of a 2+1 schedule in infants was confirmed in a clinical trial. FUNDING: GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals SA and National Institute for Health and Welfare, Finland.

Incidence and etiology of community-acquired pneumonia in the elderly in a prospective population-based study.

BACKGROUND: We conducted a prospective population-based epidemiological study to prepare a setting for documentation of the efficacy of novel vaccines against pneumococcal (Pnc) community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in the elderly. Specific objectives were to demonstrate setting feasibility, to construct a case definition for Pnc CAP, and to estimate its incidence. METHODS: We prospectively enrolled patients with clinical and radiological findings compatible with CAP at municipal on-call clinics serving an elderly population (age ≥ 65 y) of approximately 29,500. Sputum, urine, nasopharyngeal swab (NPS), and blood samples were analyzed using diverse methods for the identification of Pnc (culture, PCR, antigen tests, serology) and of other pathogens. The following case definition for Pnc CAP was derived: encapsulated Pnc in blood culture or in high-quality sputum culture or at least 2 of the following: positive urine Pnc antigen; ≥ 2-fold increase in serum anti-PsaA or anti-CbpA antibodies; encapsulated Pnc culture or LytA PCR in either sputum or NPS. RESULTS: We enrolled 490 clinical CAP patients during the 2-y follow-up, 53% of all clinical CAP patients in the source population; 323 were radiologically confirmed. The incidence of radiologically confirmed CAP was 5.5/1000 person-y (95% confidence interval (CI) 4.9-6.1) and 10.5/1000 person-y when adjusted for non-captured patients. The proportion of radiologically confirmed CAP caused by Pnc was estimated at 17%; i.e. 0.95/1000 person-y (95% CI 0.7-1.2) and 1.8 when adjusted for non-captured patients. CONCLUSIONS: We developed and documented a feasible methodology for capturing endpoints in a vaccine trial for the prevention of pneumonia. CAP incidence in the elderly population remains considerable and Streptococcus pneumoniae was one of the most commonly detected causative agents.

High-Dose Quadrivalent Influenza Vaccine for Prevention of Cardiovascular and Respiratory Hospitalizations in Older Adults.

BACKGROUND: We assessed the relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) of high-dose quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV-HD) versus standard-dose quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV-SD) in preventing respiratory or cardiovascular hospitalizations in older adults. METHODS: FinFluHD was a phase 3b/4 modified double-blind, randomized pragmatic trial. Enrolment of 121,000 adults ≥65 years was planned over three influenza seasons (October to December 2019-2021). Participants received a single injection of QIV-HD or QIV-SD. The primary endpoint was first occurrence of an unscheduled acute respiratory or cardiovascular hospitalization (ICD-10 primary discharge J/I codes), from ≥14 days post-vaccination until May 31. The study was terminated after one season due to COVID-19; follow-up data for 2019-2020 are presented. RESULTS: 33,093 participants were vaccinated (QIV-HD, n = 16,549; QIV-SD, n = 16,544); 529 respiratory or cardiovascular hospitalizations (QIV-HD, n = 257; QIV-SD, n = 272) were recorded. The rVE of QIV-HD versus QIV-SD to prevent respiratory/cardiovascular hospitalizations was 5.5% (95% CI, -12.4 to 20.7). When prevention of respiratory and cardiovascular hospitalizations were considered separately, rVE estimates of QIV-HD versus QIV-SD were 5.4% (95% CI, -28.0 to 30.1) and 7.1% (95% CI, -15.0 to 25.0), respectively. Serious adverse reactions were <0.01% in both groups. CONCLUSIONS: Despite insufficient statistical power due to the impact of COVID-19, rVE point estimates demonstrated a trend toward a benefit of QIV-HD over QIV-SD. QIV-HD was associated with lower respiratory or cardiovascular hospitalization rates than QIV-SD, with a comparable safety profile. Adequately powered studies conducted over multiple influenza seasons are needed to determine statistical significance of QIV-HD compared with QIV-SD against preventing respiratory and cardiovascular hospitalizations. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov number: NCT04137887.

Association between anti-capsular IgG levels at birth and risk of invasive group B streptococcus disease in Finnish newborns: a retrospective case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Group B streptococcus is a major cause of neonatal disease. Natural history studies have linked maternally transferred anti-group B streptococcus capsular polysaccharide antibodies with protection against infant group B streptococcus disease. Previous studies of capsular polysaccharide antibody concentration in European populations have used maternal (not infant) sera and a non-standardised assay. This study aimed to evaluate anti-capsular polysaccharide IgG concentrations associated with protection against invasive group B streptococcus disease in Finnish infants. METHODS: In this retrospective case-control study, we used cord sera from the Finnish DIPP study repository, which was obtained between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2017. We included infants aged 6 months or younger with group B streptococcus infection (cases) and healthy infants (controls). We enrolled infants with invasive neonatal group B streptococcus (55 cases) and matched controls (229 controls) aged 6 months or younger after identification from Finnish health registers. We measured anti-capsular polysaccharide IgG (serotypes Ia-V) concentration using a standardised immunoassay and we estimated its relationship to disease risk using a Bayesian model. We used the derived risk-concentration curve to predict potential efficacy of six-valent group B streptococcus capsular polysaccharide vaccine (GBS6) based on previously reported immunogenicity data. FINDINGS: Most (32 [58%] of 55 cases) group B streptococcus cases were due to serotype III and anti-serotype III streptococcus capsular IgG concentrations were higher in serotype III-matched controls than in cases (p<0·001). 0·120-0·266 µg/mL serotype III-specific IgG was estimated to confer 75-90% risk reduction against serotype III disease. A universal risk-concentration curve, aggregating results across all six serotypes, yielded similar results. Application of this curve to GBS6 immunogenicity data predicted maternal immunisation to be more than 80% efficacious for prevention of infant group B streptococcus disease. INTERPRETATION: Higher neonatal anti-capsular polysaccharide serum IgG concentration at birth correlated with reduced risk of infant group B streptococcus disease in Finland. Based on these results, a maternal group B streptococcus capsular conjugate vaccine currently in development is predicted to be efficacious. FUNDING: Pfizer.

Hybrid Immunity Improves the Immune Response after the Fourth COVID-19 Vaccine Dose in Individuals with Medical Conditions Predisposing to Severe COVID-19.

Data on immune responses following COVID-19 booster vaccinations and subsequent infections in the immunocompromised are limited. We studied antibody responses after the fourth dose and subsequent infections to define patient groups benefiting most from boosters. Fourth vaccine (booster) doses were, in Finland, first recommended for severely immunocompromised individuals, whom we invited to participate in our study in 2022. We assessed spike protein-specific IgG and neutralizing antibodies (NAb) against the ancestral and Omicron BA.1 strains one month after the fourth dose from 488 adult participants and compared them to the levels of 35 healthy controls after three doses. We used Bayesian generalized linear modeling to assess factors explaining antibody levels and assessed vaccine-induced and hybrid immunity six months after the last vaccine dose. Chronic kidney disease (CKD) and immunosuppressive therapy (IT) were identified as factors explaining sub-optimal antibody responses. The proportion of participants with a normal antibody response and NAbs was significantly lower regarding CKD patients compared to the controls. By the 6-month sampling point, one-third of the participants became infected (documented by serology and/or molecular tests), which notably enhanced antibody levels in most immunocompromised participants. Impaired antibody responses, especially NAbs against the Omicron lineage, suggest limited protection in individuals with CKD and highlight the need for alternative pharmaceutical preventive strategies. Vaccination strategies should take into account the development of robust hybrid immunity responses also among the immunocompromised.

A retrospective nationwide register-based study to evaluate the non-specific effects of first MMR vaccination among children in Finland.

BACKGROUND: According to earlier studies, live vaccines like measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine could reduce also other infections than only the infections they are targeted against. This non-specific effect has been seen especially in studies in low-income countries and results from high-income countries have not been unambiguous. In 2011 Finland changed the recommended schedule for the first MMR vaccination from 18 months to 12 months of age. This change created a natural experiment for evaluating the potential non-specific effects. METHODS: This is a retrospective nationwide register-based cohort study of Finnish children born between 2008 and 2012. Children were divided into two cohorts by age at MMR vaccination: children administered early MMR vaccination (11 through 12 months of age) and late MMR vaccination (18 through 19 months of age). Morbidity was evaluated during the main follow-up period (from 13 to 17 months of age) and before any MMR vaccination (3 to 10 months) and after all were vaccinated with MMR (20 to 35 months) as control follow-up periods. We analyzed all infections and did additional analyzes for urinary tract infections (UTI) and bronchitis. Injuries were analyzed as a control outcome. RESULTS: Early MMR vaccinated children (N = 79949) had fewer infections compared to late MMR vaccinated (N = 60965) during the main follow-up period. The incidence rate ratio (IRR) was 0.84 (95 % confidence interval (95 % CI) 0.81-0.87). However, similar differences were also observed during the control follow-up periods. MMR vaccinated children had less UTI in the main follow-up period (IRR 0.73, 0.60-0.89) but not in the control follow-up periods. When stratified by sex, the difference was observed among girls but not in boys. CONCLUSION: No clear evidence was found for non-specific effects in infectious diseases morbidity. However, there could be a nonspecific effect on UTI. Confirmation is needed from other studies, especially from high-income countries.

Changes in SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and population immunity in Finland, 2020-2022.

Studying the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 specific antibodies (seroprevalence) allows for assessing the impact of epidemic containment measures and vaccinations and estimating the number of infections regardless of viral testing. We assessed antibody-mediated immunity to SARS-CoV-2 induced by infections and vaccinations from April 2020 to December 2022 in Finland by measuring serum IgG to SARS-CoV-2 nucleoprotein (N-IgG) and spike glycoprotein from randomly selected 18-85-year-old subjects (n = 9794). N-IgG seroprevalence remained at <7% until the last quartile (Q) of 2021. After the emergence of the Omicron variant, N-IgG seroprevalence increased rapidly and was 31% in Q1/2022 and 54% in Q4/2022. Seroprevalence was highest in the youngest age groups from Q2/2022 onwards. We did not observe regional differences in seroprevalence in 2022. We estimated that 51% of the Finnish 18-85-year-old population had antibody-mediated hybrid immunity induced by a combination of vaccinations and infections by the end of 2022. In conclusion, major shifts in the COVID-19 pandemic and resulting population immunity could be observed by serological testing.

Underreporting of SARS-CoV-2 infections during the first wave of the 2020 COVID-19 epidemic in Finland-Bayesian inference based on a series of serological surveys.

In Finland, the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) took place from March to June 2020, with the majority of COVID-19 cases diagnosed in the Helsinki-Uusimaa region. The magnitude and trend in the incidence of COVID-19 is one way to monitor the course of the epidemic. The diagnosed COVID-19 cases are a subset of the infections and therefore the COVID-19 incidence underestimates the SARS-CoV-2 incidence. The likelihood that an individual with SARS-CoV-2 infection is diagnosed with COVID-19 depends on the clinical manifestation as well as the infection testing policy and capacity. These factors may fluctuate over time and the underreporting of infections changes accordingly. Quantifying the extent of underreporting allows the assessment of the true incidence of infection. To obtain information on the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Finland, a series of serological surveys was initiated in April 2020. We develop a Bayesian inference approach and apply it to data from the serological surveys, registered COVID-19 cases, and external data on antibody development, to estimate the time-dependent underreporting of SARS-Cov-2 infections during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in Finland. During the entire first wave, there were 1 to 5 (95% probability) SARS-CoV-2 infections for every COVID-19 case. The underreporting was highest before April when there were 4 to 17 (95% probability) infections for every COVID-19 case. It is likely that between 0.5%-1.0% (50% probability) and no more than 1.5% (95% probability) of the adult population in the Helsinki-Uusimaa region were infected with SARS-CoV-2 by the beginning of July 2020.

Incidence of sinus thrombosis with thrombocytopenia-A nation-wide register study.

Safe vaccination is essential for mitigation of the COVID-19 pandemic. Two adenoviral vector vaccines, ChAdOx1 nCov-19 (AstraZeneca) and Ad26.COV2.S (Johnson&Johnson/Janssen) have shown to be effective and they are distributed globally, but reports on serious cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST) associated with thrombocytopenia, have emerged. Our objective was to evaluate the background incidence of CVST with thrombocytopenia and to compare it to incidences following COVID-19 vaccines. We conducted a register-based nation-wide cohort study in Finland, including all 5.5 million individuals alive in Finland, 1 Jan 2020. COVID-19 vaccinations registered in the National Vaccination Register served as the exposure. We detected CVST admissions or hospital visits recorded in the hospital discharge register from Jan 1, 2020 through April 2, 2021. We confirmed the diagnosis of CVST and thrombocytopenia (platelet count <150,000 per cubic millimeter) using radiology reports and laboratory data. By Poisson regression, we compared the baseline incidences to the risks within four weeks after COVID-19 vaccinations. Out of the 167 CVST episodes identified in the registers, 117 were confirmed as CVST, 18 of which coincided with thrombocytopenia (baseline incidence 0.18 per 28 days per million persons). We found 2 episodes of CVST with thrombocytopenia within 28 days of the first ChAdOx1 nCov-19 vaccination (among 200,397 vaccinated, aged 16 or above). No cases were found following the first mRNA vaccine dose among 782,604 vaccinated. The background incidence of CVST combined with thrombocytopenia was minuscule compared to the incidence during the weeks following the ChAdOx1 nCov-19 vaccination. Accurate estimation of the baseline incidence is essential in the critical appraisal of the benefit-risk of any vaccination program.

Cohort Profile: Childhood morbidity and potential non-specific effects of the childhood vaccination programmes in the Nordic countries (NONSEnse): register-based cohort of children born 1990-2017/2018.

PURPOSE: The aim of the NONSEnse project is to investigate the non-specific effects of vaccines and immunisation programmes on the overall health of children by using information from the extensive nationwide registers on health and sociodemographic factors in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. PARTICIPANTS: The cohort covers 9 072 420 children aged 0-17 years, born 1990-2017/2018 and living in Denmark, Finland, Norway or Sweden. All countries use a unique identification number for its permanent residents, which makes it possible to link individual-level information from different registers. FINDINGS TO DATE: Data collection and harmonisation according to a common data model was completed in March 2022. As a prerequisite for comparing the effects of childhood vaccinations on the overall health of children across the Nordic countries, we have identified indicators measuring similar levels of infectious disease morbidity across these settings. So far, studies pertaining to non-specific effects of vaccines are limited to investigations that could be undertaken using aggregated data sets that were available before the NONSEnse cohort with individual-level information was completely set up. FUTURE PLANS: We are currently performing several studies of the effects on non-targeted infectious disease morbidity across the countries following vaccination against measles, mumps, rubella, diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, human papillomavirus, rotavirus and influenza. Multiple studies are planned within the next years using different study designs to facilitate triangulation of results and enhance causal inference. REGISTRATION: No clinical trials will be conducted within the NONSEnse project.

Acute otitis media replacement and recurrence in the Finnish otitis media vaccine trial.

We reanalyzed the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine trial FinOM for prevention of acute otitis media (AOM), with a focus on disease replacement due to other pathogens and AOM recurrence. We found evidence of replacement disease occurring early during the trial follow-up and little vaccine impact on recurrent overall AOM episodes.

Nasopharyngeal carriage of Streptococcus pneumoniae and pneumococcal urine antigen test in healthy elderly subjects.

BACKGROUND: Children frequently carry Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcus) in their nasopharynx, even when healthy. Lower carriage rates have been reported in adults and only sparse data are available for the elderly. We sampled healthy elderly subjects for nasopharyngeal carriage to assess the prevalence of pneumococcal carriage using various assays. METHODS: A deep nasopharyngeal swab sample was taken from 590 healthy elderly subjects aged ≥ 65 y. The samples were stored in STGG (skim milk-tryptone-glucose-glycerol) medium and cultured directly and after incubation in enrichment broth using routine identification methods. Real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays specific for pneumolysin and pneumococcal surface antigen A genes was performed on the same samples. Urine was also collected and assayed using the commercial Binax Streptococcus pneumoniae NOW urine antigen test. RESULTS: The prevalence of pneumococcal carriage in healthy elderly persons was 1.5% for encapsulated pneumococci and 5.3% for all presumptive pneumococci. The use of the enrichment broth did not increase the yield of positives. PCR assays gave higher numbers of positives, but pneumolysin PCR in particular gave probable false-positive results. Only 1 urine antigen test was positive, and this was in a person not carrying pneumococcus. CONCLUSIONS: Nasopharyngeal carriage of pneumococci in the elderly was rare. Identification of presumptive pneumococci in culture requires further confirmation, e.g. by serotyping. The urine antigen test was not affected by concurrent carriage. Low carriage prevalence suggests that encapsulated pneumococci detected in a respiratory tract sample during sickness may be the true cause of disease, since contamination from asymptomatic nasopharyngeal carriage seems unlikely.