Early warning and predicting of COVID-19 using zero-inflated negative binomial regression model and negative binomial regression model.

BACKGROUND: It is difficult to detect the outbreak of emergency infectious disease based on the exiting surveillance system. Here we investigate the utility of the Baidu Search Index, an indicator of how large of a keyword is in Baidu's search volume, in the early warning and predicting the epidemic trend of COVID-19. METHODS: The daily number of cases and the Baidu Search Index of 8 keywords (weighted by population) from December 1, 2019 to March 15, 2020 were collected and analyzed with times series and Spearman correlation with different time lag. To predict the daily number of COVID-19 cases using the Baidu Search Index, Zero-inflated negative binomial regression was used in phase 1 and negative binomial regression model was used in phase 2 and phase 3 based on the characteristic of independent variable. RESULTS: The Baidu Search Index of all keywords in Wuhan was significantly higher than Hubei (excluded Wuhan) and China (excluded Hubei). Before the causative pathogen was identified, the search volume of "Influenza" and "Pneumonia" in Wuhan increased with the number of new onset cases, their correlation coefficient was 0.69 and 0.59, respectively. After the pathogen was public but before COVID-19 was classified as a notifiable disease, the search volume of "SARS", "Pneumonia", "Coronavirus" in all study areas increased with the number of new onset cases with the correlation coefficient was 0.69 ~ 0.89, while "Influenza" changed to negative correlated (rs: -0.56 ~ -0.64). After COVID-19 was closely monitored, the Baidu Search Index of "COVID-19", "Pneumonia", "Coronavirus", "SARS" and "Mask" could predict the epidemic trend with 15 days, 5 days and 6 days lead time, respectively in Wuhan, Hubei (excluded Wuhan) and China (excluded Hubei). The predicted number of cases would increase 1.84 and 4.81 folds, respectively than the actual number of cases in Wuhan and Hubei (excluded Wuhan) from 21 January to 9 February. CONCLUSION: The Baidu Search Index could be used in the early warning and predicting the epidemic trend of COVID-19, but the search keywords changed in different period. Considering the time lag from onset to diagnosis, especially in the areas with medical resources shortage, internet search data can be a highly effective supplement of the existing surveillance system.

Willingness to Use Long-Acting Injectable Cabotegravir and Associated Factors Among Men Who Have Sex with Men in Guangxi, China.

Cabotegravir (CAB-LA), the first long-acting injectable pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), has been approved for use in the USA and is not currently on the market in China. However, willingness to use CAB-LA and associated factors among men who have sex with men (MSM) have not yet been evaluated in China. A cross-sectional study was conducted in Guangxi, China, in 2022 recruiting 1,006 MSM. Their mean age was 30.2 years, 74.2% had college or above education, and 48.6% had a monthly income between 3,000 and 5,999 Chinese yuan (CNY). Most (73.4%) had previously heard of PrEP while few (8.3%) had ever used this type of preventative medication. Willingness to use CAB-LA was 79.8% and was positively associated with eight variables: younger age, being married to a woman, having a low monthly income, having six or more male partners in the past six months, having only regular male partners in the past month, having a high perceived risk of HIV infection, and history of using PrEP. Ten other variables were not significantly associated with willingness to use CAB-LA. Among 894 participants who were willing to use or did not definitely reject using CAB-LA, the main concerns about CAB-LA were its side effects (90.2%), efficacy (63.6%), and high cost (58.2%). Only 14.7% were willing to pay more than 1,200 CNY (~US$180) every two months to use CAB-LA. The preferred injection places were centers for disease control facilities, hospitals, and social organizations. Many (89.0%) said that they would recommend CAB-LA to their male sexual partners. We conclude that willingness to use CAB-LA was high among MSM in Guangxi. However, implementation of CAB-LA faces tough challenges due to its high cost and the low use of PrEP. Peer education may play a large role in the implementation of CAB-LA in China.