Animal Exposure Model for Mapping Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever Virus Emergence Risk.

To estimate the determinants of spatial variation in Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) transmission and to create a risk map as a preventive public health tool, we designed a survey of small domestic ruminants in Andalusia, Spain. To assess CCHFV exposure spatial distribution, we analyzed serum from 2,440 sheep and goats by using a double-antigen ELISA and modeled exposure probability with environmental predictors by using generalized linear mixed models. CCHFV antibodies detected in 84 samples confirmed low CCHFV prevalence in small domestic ruminants in the region. The best-fitted statistical model indicated that the most significant predictors of virus exposure risk were cattle/horse density and the normalized difference vegetation index. Model validation showed 99.7% specificity and 10.2% sensitivity for identifying CCHFV circulation areas. To map CCHFV exposure risk, we projected the model at a 1 × 1-km spatial resolution. Our study provides insight into CCHFV ecology that is useful for preventing virus transmission.

Movement-driven modelling reveals new patterns in disease transmission networks.

Interspecific interactions are highly relevant in the potential transmission of shared pathogens in multi-host systems. In recent decades, several technologies have been developed to study pathogen transmission, such as proximity loggers, GPS tracking devices and/or camera traps. Despite the diversity of methods aimed at detecting contacts, the analysis of transmission risk is often reduced to contact rates and the probability of transmission given the contact. However, the latter process is continuous over time and unique for each contact, and is influenced by the characteristics of the contact and the pathogen's relationship with both the host and the environment. Our objective was to assess whether a more comprehensive approach, using a movement-based model which assigns a unique transmission risk to each contact by decomposing transmission into contact formation, contact duration and host characteristics, could reveal disease transmission dynamics that are not detected with more traditional approaches. The model was built from GPS-collar data from two management systems in Spain where animal tuberculosis (TB) circulates: a national park with extensively reared endemic cattle, and an area with extensive free-range pigs and cattle farms. In addition, we evaluated the effect of the GPS device fix rate on the performance of the model. Different transmission dynamics were identified between both management systems. Considering the specific conditions under which each contact occurs (i.e. whether the contact is direct or indirect, its duration, the hosts characteristics, the environmental conditions, etc.) resulted in the identification of different transmission dynamics compared to using only contact rates. We found that fix intervals greater than 30 min in the GPS tracking data resulted in missed interactions, and intervals greater than 2 h may be insufficient for epidemiological purposes. Our study shows that neglecting the conditions under which each contact occurs may result in a misidentification of the real role of each species in disease transmission. This study describes a clear and repeatable framework to study pathogen transmission from GPS data and provides further insights to understand how TB is maintained in multi-host systems in Mediterranean environments.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of Ixodes ricinus abundance in northern Spain.

Ixodes ricinus is the most medically relevant tick species in Europe because it transmits the pathogens that cause Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis. Northern Spain represents the southernmost margin of its main European range and has the highest rate of Lyme borreliosis hospitalisations in the country. Currently, the environmental determinants of the spatiotemporal patterns of I. ricinus abundance remain unknown in this region and these may differ from drivers in highly favourable areas for the species in Europe. Therefore, our study aimed to understand the main factors modulating questing I. ricinus population dynamics to map abundance patterns in northern Spain. From 2012 to 2014, monthly/fortnightly samplings were conducted at 13 sites in two regions of northern Spain to estimate spatiotemporal variation in I. ricinus questing abundance. Local abundance of I. ricinus was modelled in relation to variation in local biotic and abiotic environmental conditions by constructing generalised linear mixed models with a zero-inflated negative binomial distribution for overdispersed data. The different developmental stages of I. ricinus were most active at different times of the year. Adults and nymphs showed a peak of abundance in spring, while questing larvae were more frequent in summer. The main determinants affecting the spatiotemporal abundance of the different stages were related to humidity and temperature. For adults and larvae, summer seemed to be the most influential period for their abundance, while for nymphs, winter conditions and those of the preceding months seemed to be determining factors. The highest abundances of nymphs and adults were predicted for the regions of northern Spain with the highest rate of Lyme borreliosis hospitalisations. Our models could be the basis on which to build more accurate predictive models to identify the spatiotemporal windows of greatest potential interaction between animals/humans and I. ricinus that may lead to the transmission of I. ricinus-borne pathogens.

Testing the efficiency of capture methods for questing Hyalomma lusitanicum (Acari: Ixodidae), a vector of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus.

Available methods to census exophilic tick populations have limitations in estimating true population size due to their inability to capture a high proportion of the actual tick population. We currently ignore the efficacy of these methods to capture questing Hyalomma spp. ticks, vectors of the Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus. To address the need of accurately estimating questing densities of Hyalomma spp., we designed a field experiment to test the efficacy of blanket dragging, blanket flagging, CO2-baited traps, and an ad hoc designed method, absolute surface counts, in capturing adult Hyalomma lusitanicum ticks from known numbers of preset fluorescent-marked ticks. The experiment was designed in 2 stages to estimate the point (1-day sampling) and cumulative (3-day serial sampling) efficacy of the methods under varying sampling effort and habitat. Tick survival, host interference, and weather effects on efficacy were controlled for in multiple regression models. There was high variability in method efficacy for capturing ticks, which was also modulated by effort, habitat, tick density, hosts, and soil temperature. The most effective method was absolute surface counts for both point estimates (39%) and cumulative efficacy (83%). CO2-baited traps reached a maximum efficacy of 37%, while blanket dragging and blanket flagging captured a maximum of the 8% of the marked ticks. Our results reveal the strengths and weaknesses of the different tick capture methods applied to adult H. lusitanicum and lay the groundwork for more accurate inferences about the true size of exophilic tick populations.

Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus in questing non-Hyalomma spp. ticks in Northwest Spain, 2021.

Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) unexpectedly emerged in humans in Northwest Spain in 2021, and two additional cases were reported in the region in 2022. The 2021 case was associated with a tick bite on the outskirts of the city where the patient lived. PCR analysis of 95 questing ticks collected in the outskirts of that city in 2021, none of the genus Hyalomma, revealed a prevalence of confirmed CCHF virus (CCHFV) infection of 10.5%. Our results in this emerging scenario suggest the need to consider that CCHFV may be effectively spreading to Northwest Spain and to urgently understand any possible role of non-Hyalomma spp. ticks in the eco-epidemiological dynamics of CCHFV.

Mapping the risk of exposure to Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus in the Iberian Peninsula using Eurasian wild boar (Sus scrofa) as a model.

Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) virus (CCHFV) is a tick-borne zoonotic pathogen that can cause a lethal haemorrhagic disease in humans. Although the virus appears to be endemically established in the Iberian Peninsula, CCHF is an emerging disease in Spain. Clinical signs of CCHFV infection are mainly manifested in humans, but the virus replicates in several animal species. Understanding the determinants of CCHFV exposure risk from animal models is essential to predicting high-risk exposure hotspots for public health action. With this objective in mind, we designed a cross-sectional study of Eurasian wild boar (Sus scrofa) in Spain and Portugal. The study analysed 5,291 sera collected between 2006 and 2022 from 90 wild boar populations with a specific double-antigen ELISA to estimate CCHFV serum prevalence and identify the main determinants of exposure probability. To do so, we statistically modelled exposure risk with host- and environment-related predictors and spatially projected it at a 10 × 10 km square resolution at the scale of the Iberian Peninsula to map foci of infection risk. Fifty-seven (63.3 %) of the 90 populations had at least one seropositive animal, with seroprevalence ranging from 0.0 to 88.2 %. Anti-CCHFV antibodies were found in 1,026 of 5,291 wild boar (19.4 %; 95 % confidence interval: 18.3-20.5 %), with highest exposure rates in southwestern Iberia. The most relevant predictors of virus exposure risk were wild boar abundance, local rainfall regime, shrub cover, winter air temperature and soil temperature variation. The spatial projection of the best-fit model identified high-risk foci as occurring in most of western and southwestern Iberia and identified recently confirmed risk foci in eastern Spain. The results of the study demonstrate that serological surveys of CCHFV vector hosts are a powerful, robust and highly informative tool for public health authorities to take action to prevent human cases of CCHF in enzootic and emergency settings.

Insights into the spatiotemporal dynamics of West Nile virus transmission in emerging scenarios.

The incidence of West Nile fever (WNF) is highly variable in emerging areas, making it difficult to identify risk periods. Using clinical case records has important biases in understanding the transmission dynamics of West Nile virus (WNV) because asymptomatic infections are frequent. However, estimating virus exposure in sentinel species could help achieve this goal at varying spatiotemporal scales. To identify the determinants of inter-annual variation in WNV transmission rates, we designed a 15-year longitudinal seroepidemiological study (2005-2020) in five environmentally diverse areas of southwestern Spain. We modeled individual annual area-dependent exposure risk based on potential environmental and host predictors using generalized linear mixed models. Further, we analyzed the weight of predictors on exposure probability by variance partitioning of the model components. The analysis of 2418 wild ungulate sera (1168 red deer - Cervus elaphus - and 1250 Eurasian wild boar - Sus scrofa) with a highly sensitive commercial blocking ELISA identified an average seroprevalence of 24.9% (95% confidence interval (CI): 23.2-26.7%). Antibody prevalence was slightly higher in wild boar (27.5%; CI: 25.1-30.1%) than in deer (22.2%; CI: 19.8-24.7%). We observed a spatial trend in exposure, with higher frequency in the southernmost areas and a slight, although area-dependent, increasing temporal trend. Host-related predictors were important drivers of exposure risk. The environmental predictor with the highest weight was annual cumulative precipitation, while temperature variations were also relevant but with less weight. We observed a coincidence of spatiotemporal changes in exposure with the notification of WNF outbreaks in horses and humans. That indicates the usefulness of wild ungulates as sentinels for WNV transmission and as models to understand its spatiotemporal dynamics. These results will allow the development of more accurate predictive models of spatiotemporal variations in transmission risk that can inform health authorities to take appropriate action.

The relevance of the wild reservoir in zoonotic multi-host pathogens: The links between Iberian wild mammals and Coxiella burnetii.

Q fever is a worldwide zoonosis caused by an obligate intracellular bacterium, Coxiella burnetii, with only anecdotal reports of human-to-human transmission. The cause of human Q fever infections is the circulation of C. burnetii in animal reservoirs. Infected livestock, particularly goats and sheep, may cause Q fever outbreaks in humans. However, wildlife is the origin of several human Q fever cases. Human impacts on habitats, biodiversity and climate are responsible for changes in the patterns of interaction between domestic animals, wildlife and humans, allowing wild animals to play an increasingly relevant role as Q fever reservoirs. In the Iberian Peninsula, human impacts on the environment combined with a high biodiversity, which could maintain high transmission rates of this multi-host pathogen, make wild reservoirs an important piece in Q fever epidemiology. In this study, we review the reporting of C. burnetii infections and exposure in Iberian wild mammals and analyse the link between the diversity of wild mammals and the frequency of C. burnetii notifications in wildlife. For it, the number of wild mammal species per UTM 10 × 10-km grid in mainland Spain and Portugal was estimated as a potential predictor of C. burnetii transmission. The results of non-linear regression analysis showed a quadratic relationship between the number of wild mammal species per grid and the presence of C. burnetii cases reported in the literature both by serology (R2  = 0.86) and polymerase chain reaction (R2  = 0.83). Increasing wild mammal diversity was linked to increasing C. burnetii transmission until an intermediate level when the relationship was inverted. Thus, at high levels of wild mammal diversity, the risk of C. burnetii transmission was lower. These observations show a role of wild mammal biodiversity in C. burnetii ecology that needs to be further explored to better prevent the negative impact of Q fever in livestock and human health in Iberia.

Determinants of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus exposure dynamics in Mediterranean environments.

Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is an emerging tick-borne human disease in Spain. Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics and exposure risk determinants of CCHF virus (CCHFV) in animal models is essential to predict the time and areas of highest transmission risk. With this goal, we designed a longitudinal survey of two wild ungulate species, the red deer (Cervus elaphus) and the Eurasian wild boar (Sus scrofa), in Doñana National Park, a protected Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot with high ungulate and CCHFV vector abundance, and which is also one of the main stopover sites for migratory birds between Africa and western Europe. Both ungulates are hosts to the principal CCHFV vector in Spain, Hyalomma lusitanicum. We sampled wild ungulates annually from 2005 to 2020 and analysed the frequency of exposure to CCHFV by a double-antigen ELISA. The annual exposure risk was modelled as a function of environmental traits in an approach to understanding exposure risk determinants that allow us to predict the most likely places and years for CCHFV transmission. The main findings show that H. lusitanicum abundance is a fundamental driver of the fine-scale spatial CCHFV transmission risk, while inter-annual risk variation is conditioned by virus/vector hosts, host community structure and weather variations. The most relevant conclusion of the study is that the emergence of CCHF in Spain might be associated with recent wild ungulate population changes promoting higher vector abundance. This work provides relevant insights into the transmission dynamics of CCHFV in enzootic scenarios that would allow deepening the understanding of the ecology of CCHFV and its major determinants.

Environmental factors driving fine-scale ixodid tick abundance patterns.

Tick abundance is an essential demographic parameter to infer tick-borne pathogen transmission risks. Spatiotemporal patterns of tick abundance are heterogeneous, so its determinants at small spatial scales need to be understood to reduce their negative effects on hosts. Current knowledge of these determinants is scarce, especially in Mediterranean environments, limiting the possibilities for designing efficient tick control strategies. With the goal of unravelling tick abundance determinants and informing new tick management strategies, we estimated tick burdens on 1965 wild ungulates in Doñana National Park, Spain, annually between 2010 and 2020. Under the hypothesis of a predominant host influence on tick abundance, we modelled the burdens of Rhipicephalus annulatus, Hyalomma lusitanicum, and Ixodes ricinus with relevant predictors grouped into four factors: i) environment; ii) host population; iii) host individual; and iv) land-use. Generalized linear mixed models with a zero-inflated negative binomial distribution were built. Additionally, we analysed the differential contribution to abundance of each factor by deviance partitioning. We finally estimated the similarity in the environmental space of tick species by analysing their niche overlap with the environmental principal component analysis method. Our work hypothesis was confirmed for R. annulatus and H. lusitanicum, but we found that tick abundance at a fine spatial scale is jointly driven by multiple drivers, including all four factors considered in this study. This result points out that understanding the demography of ticks is a complex multifactorial issue, even at small spatial scales. We found no niche differences between the three tick species at the study spatial scale, thus showing similar host and environmental dependencies. Overall results identify that host aggregation areas displaying environmentally favourable traits for ticks are relevant tick and vector-borne pathogen transmission hotspots. Our findings will facilitate the design of new strategies to reduce the negative effects of tick parasitism.