Individual and Combined Effects of Environmental Risk Factors for Esophageal Cancer Based on Results From the Golestan Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Northeast Iran has one of the highest reported rates of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) worldwide. Decades of investigations in this region have identified some local habits and environmental exposures that increase risk. We analyzed data from the Golestan Cohort Study to determine the individual and combined effects of the major environmental risk factors of ESCC. METHODS: We performed a population-based cohort of 50,045 individuals, 40 to 75 years old, from urban and rural areas across Northeast Iran. Detailed data on demographics, diet, lifestyle, socioeconomic status, temperature of drinking beverages, and different exposures were collected using validated methods, questionnaires, and physical examinations, from 2004 through 2008. Participants were followed from the date of enrollment to the date of first diagnosis of esophageal cancer, date of death from other causes, or date of last follow-up, through December 31, 2017. Proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between different exposures and ESCC. RESULTS: During an average 10 years of follow-up, 317 participants developed ESCC. Opium smoking (HR 1.85; 95% CI 1.18-2.90), drinking hot tea (≥60°C) (HR 1.60; 95% CI 1.15-2.22), low intake of fruits (HR 1.48; 95% CI 1.07-2.05) and vegetables (HR 1.62; 95% CI 1.03-2.56), excessive tooth loss (HR 1.66; 95% CI 1.04-2.64), drinking unpiped water (HR 2.04; 95% CI 1.09-3.81), and exposure to indoor air pollution (HR 1.57; 95% CI 1.08-2.29) were significantly associated with increased risk of ESCC, in a dose-dependent manner. Combined exposure to these risk factors was associated with a stepwise increase in the risk of developing ESCC, reaching a more than 7-fold increase in risk in the highest category. Approximately 75% of the ESCC cases in this region can be attributed to a combination of the identified exposures. CONCLUSIONS: Analysis of data from the Golestan Cohort Study in Iran identified multiple risk factors for ESCC in this population. Our findings support the hypothesis that the high rates of ESCC are due to a combination of factors, including thermal injury (from hot tea), exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (from opium and indoor air pollution), and nutrient-deficient diets. We also associated ESCC risk with exposure to unpiped water and tooth loss.

Genetic variant predictors of gene expression provide new insight into risk of colorectal cancer.

Genome-wide association studies have reported 56 independently associated colorectal cancer (CRC) risk variants, most of which are non-coding and believed to exert their effects by modulating gene expression. The computational method PrediXcan uses cis-regulatory variant predictors to impute expression and perform gene-level association tests in GWAS without directly measured transcriptomes. In this study, we used reference datasets from colon (n = 169) and whole blood (n = 922) transcriptomes to test CRC association with genetically determined expression levels in a genome-wide analysis of 12,186 cases and 14,718 controls. Three novel associations were discovered from colon transverse models at FDR ≤ 0.2 and further evaluated in an independent replication including 32,825 cases and 39,933 controls. After adjusting for multiple comparisons, we found statistically significant associations using colon transcriptome models with TRIM4 (discovery P = 2.2 × 10- 4, replication P = 0.01), and PYGL (discovery P = 2.3 × 10- 4, replication P = 6.7 × 10- 4). Interestingly, both genes encode proteins that influence redox homeostasis and are related to cellular metabolic reprogramming in tumors, implicating a novel CRC pathway linked to cell growth and proliferation. Defining CRC risk regions as one megabase up- and downstream of one of the 56 independent risk variants, we defined 44 non-overlapping CRC-risk regions. Among these risk regions, we identified genes associated with CRC (P < 0.05) in 34/44 CRC-risk regions. Importantly, CRC association was found for two genes in the previously reported 2q25 locus, CXCR1 and CXCR2, which are potential cancer therapeutic targets. These findings provide strong candidate genes to prioritize for subsequent laboratory follow-up of GWAS loci. This study is the first to implement PrediXcan in a large colorectal cancer study and findings highlight the utility of integrating transcriptome data in GWAS for discovery of, and biological insight into, risk loci.

Correction to: Genetic variant predictors of gene expression provide new insight into risk of colorectal cancer.

Every author has erroneously been assigned to the affiliation "62". The affiliation 62 belongs to the author Graham Casey.

Mendelian randomisation study of age at menarche and age at menopause and the risk of colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Substantial evidence supports an association between use of menopausal hormone therapy and decreased colorectal cancer (CRC) risk, indicating a role of exogenous sex hormones in CRC development. However, findings on endogenous oestrogen exposure and CRC are inconsistent. METHODS: We used a Mendelian randomisation approach to test for a causal effect of age at menarche and age at menopause as surrogates for endogenous oestrogen exposure on CRC risk. Weighted genetic risk scores based on 358 single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with age at menarche and 51 single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with age at menopause were used to estimate the association with CRC risk using logistic regression in 12,944 women diagnosed with CRC and 10,741 women without CRC from three consortia. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to address pleiotropy and possible confounding by body mass index. RESULTS: Genetic risk scores for age at menarche (odds ratio per year 0.98, 95% confidence interval: 0.95-1.02) and age at menopause (odds ratio 0.98, 95% confidence interval: 0.94-1.01) were not significantly associated with CRC risk. The sensitivity analyses yielded similar results. CONCLUSIONS: Our study does not support a causal relationship between genetic risk scores for age at menarche and age at menopause and CRC risk.

Common variants associated with breast cancer in genome-wide association studies are modifiers of breast cancer risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers.

Recent studies have identified single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that significantly modify breast cancer risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers. Since these risk modifiers were originally identified as genetic risk factors for breast cancer in genome-wide association studies (GWASs), additional risk modifiers for BRCA1 and BRCA2 may be identified from promising signals discovered in breast cancer GWAS. A total of 350 SNPs identified as candidate breast cancer risk factors (P < 1 x 10(-3)) in two breast cancer GWAS studies were genotyped in 3451 BRCA1 and 2006 BRCA2 mutation carriers from nine centers. Associations with breast cancer risk were assessed using Cox models weighted for penetrance. Eight SNPs in BRCA1 carriers and 12 SNPs in BRCA2 carriers, representing an enrichment over the number expected, were significantly associated with breast cancer risk (P(trend) < 0.01). The minor alleles of rs6138178 in SNRPB and rs6602595 in CAMK1D displayed the strongest associations in BRCA1 carriers (HR = 0.78, 95% CI: 0.69-0.90, P(trend) = 3.6 x 10(-4) and HR = 1.25, 95% CI: 1.10-1.41, P(trend) = 4.2 x 10(-4)), whereas rs9393597 in LOC134997 and rs12652447 in FBXL7 showed the strongest associations in BRCA2 carriers (HR = 1.55, 95% CI: 1.25-1.92, P(trend) = 6 x 10(-5) and HR = 1.37, 95% CI: 1.16-1.62, P(trend) = 1.7 x 10(-4)). The magnitude and direction of the associations were consistent with the original GWAS. In subsequent risk assessment studies, the loci appeared to interact multiplicatively for breast cancer risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers. Promising candidate SNPs from GWAS were identified as modifiers of breast cancer risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers. Upon further validation, these SNPs together with other genetic and environmental factors may improve breast cancer risk assessment in these populations.

Long-term opiate use and risk of cardiovascular mortality: results from the Golestan Cohort Study.

AIMS: Tens of millions of people worldwide use opiates but little is known about their potential role in causing cardiovascular diseases. We aimed to study the association of long-term opiate use with cardiovascular mortality and whether this association is independent of the known risk factors. METHODS AND RESULTS: In the population-based Golestan Cohort Study-50 045 Iranian participants, 40-75 years, 58% women-we used Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (HRs, 95% CIs) for the association of opiate use (at least once a week for a period of 6 months) with cardiovascular mortality, adjusting for potential confounders-i.e. age, sex, education, wealth, residential place, marital status, ethnicity, and tobacco and alcohol use. To show independent association, the models were further adjusted for hypertension, diabetes, waist and hip circumferences, physical activity, fruit/vegetable intake, aspirin and statin use, and history of cardiovascular diseases and cancers. In total, 8487 participants (72.2% men) were opiate users for a median (IQR) of 10 (4-20) years. During 548 940 person-years-median of 11.3 years, >99% success follow-up-3079 cardiovascular deaths occurred, with substantially higher rates in opiate users than non-users (1005 vs. 478 deaths/100 000 person-years). Opiate use was associated with increased cardiovascular mortality, with adjusted HR (95% CI) of 1.63 (1.49-1.79). Overall 10.9% of cardiovascular deaths were attributable to opiate use. The association was independent of the traditional cardiovascular risk factors. CONCLUSION: Long-term opiate use was associated with an increased cardiovascular mortality independent of the traditional risk factors. Further research, particularly on mechanisms of action, is recommended.

Urinary TERT promoter mutations are detectable up to 10 years prior to clinical diagnosis of bladder cancer: Evidence from the Golestan Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Detecting pre-clinical bladder cancer (BC) using urinary biomarkers may provide a valuable opportunity for screening and management. Telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT) promoter mutations detectable in urine have emerged as promising BC biomarkers. METHODS: We performed a nested case-control study within the population-based prospective Golestan Cohort Study (50,045 participants, followed up to 14 years) and assessed TERT promoter mutations in baseline urine samples from 38 asymptomatic individuals who subsequently developed primary BC and 152 matched controls using a Next-Generation Sequencing-based single-plex assay (UroMuTERT) and droplet digital PCR assays. FINDINGS: Results were obtained for 30 cases and 101 controls. TERT promoter mutations were detected in 14 pre-clinical cases (sensitivity 46·67%) and none of the controls (specificity 100·00%). At an estimated BC cumulative incidence of 0·09% in the cohort, the positive and negative predictive values were 100·00% and 99·95% respectively. The mutant allelic fractions decreased with the time interval from urine collection until BC diagnosis (p = 0·033) but the mutations were detectable up to 10 years prior to clinical diagnosis. INTERPRETATION: Our results provide the first evidence from a population-based prospective cohort study of the potential of urinary TERT promoter mutations as promising non-invasive biomarkers for early detection of BC. Further studies should validate this finding and assess their clinical utility in other longitudinal cohorts. FUNDING: French Cancer League, World Cancer Research Fund International, Cancer Research UK, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, the International Agency for Research on Cancer, and the U.S. National Cancer Institute.

Author Correction: Genome-wide association study identifies susceptibility loci for B-cell childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

The original version of this Article contained an error in the spelling of a member of the PRACTICAL Consortium, Manuela Gago-Dominguez, which was incorrectly given as Manuela Gago Dominguez. This has now been corrected in both the PDF and HTML versions of the Article. Furthermore, in the original HTML version of this Article, the order of authors within the author list was incorrect. The PRACTICAL consortium was incorrectly listed after Richard S. Houlston and should have been listed after Nora Pashayan. This error has been corrected in the HTML version of the Article; the PDF version was correct at the time of publication.

Genome-wide association study identifies susceptibility loci for B-cell childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have advanced our understanding of susceptibility to B-cell precursor acute lymphoblastic leukemia (BCP-ALL); however, much of the heritable risk remains unidentified. Here, we perform a GWAS and conduct a meta-analysis with two existing GWAS, totaling 2442 cases and 14,609 controls. We identify risk loci for BCP-ALL at 8q24.21 (rs28665337, P = 3.86 × 10-9, odds ratio (OR) = 1.34) and for ETV6-RUNX1 fusion-positive BCP-ALL at 2q22.3 (rs17481869, P = 3.20 × 10-8, OR = 2.14). Our findings provide further insights into genetic susceptibility to ALL and its biology.

Accuracy of the online prognostication tools PREDICT and Adjuvant! for early-stage breast cancer patients younger than 50 years.

IMPORTANCE: Online prognostication tools such as PREDICT and Adjuvant! are increasingly used in clinical practice by oncologists to inform patients and guide treatment decisions about adjuvant systemic therapy. However, their validity for young breast cancer patients is debated. OBJECTIVE: To assess first, the prognostic accuracy of PREDICT's and Adjuvant! 10-year all-cause mortality, and second, its breast cancer-specific mortality estimates, in a large cohort of breast cancer patients diagnosed <50 years. DESIGN: Hospital-based cohort. SETTING: General and cancer hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: A consecutive series of 2710 patients without a prior history of cancer, diagnosed between 1990 and 2000 with unilateral stage I-III breast cancer aged <50 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Calibration and discriminatory accuracy, measured with C-statistics, of estimated 10-year all-cause and breast cancer-specific mortality. RESULTS: Overall, PREDICT's calibration for all-cause mortality was good (predicted versus observed) meandifference: -1.1% (95%CI: -3.2%-0.9%; P = 0.28). PREDICT tended to underestimate all-cause mortality in good prognosis subgroups (range meandifference: -2.9% to -4.8%), overestimated all-cause mortality in poor prognosis subgroups (range meandifference: 2.6%-9.4%) and underestimated survival in patients < 35 by -6.6%. Overall, PREDICT overestimated breast cancer-specific mortality by 3.2% (95%CI: 0.8%-5.6%; P = 0.007); and also overestimated it seemingly indiscriminately in numerous subgroups (range meandifference: 3.2%-14.1%). Calibration was poor in the cohort of patients with the lowest and those with the highest mortality probabilities. Discriminatory accuracy was moderate-to-good for all-cause mortality in PREDICT (0.71 [95%CI: 0.68 to 0.73]), and the results were similar for breast cancer-specific mortality. Adjuvant!'s calibration and discriminatory accuracy for both all-cause and breast cancer-specific mortality were in line with PREDICT's findings. CONCLUSIONS: Although imprecise at the extremes, PREDICT's estimates of 10-year all-cause mortality seem reasonably sound for breast cancer patients <50 years; Adjuvant! findings were similar. Prognostication tools should be used with caution due to the intrinsic variability of their estimates, and because the threshold to discuss adjuvant systemic treatment is low. Thus, seemingly insignificant mortality overestimations or underestimations of a few percentages can significantly impact treatment decision-making.

Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease and overall and Cause-specific Mortality: A Prospective Study of 50000 Individuals.

BACKGROUND Only a few studies in Western countries have investigated the association between gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) and mortality at the general population level and they have shown mixed results. This study investigated the association between GERD symptoms and overall and cause-specific mortality in a large prospective population-based study in Golestan Province, Iran. METHODS Baseline data on frequency, onset time, and patient-perceived severity of GERD symptoms were available for 50001 participants in the Golestan Cohort Study (GCS). We identified 3107 deaths (including 1146 circulatory and 470 cancer-related) with an average follow-up of 6.4 years and calculated hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) adjusted for multiple potential confounders. RESULTS Severe daily symptoms (defined as symptoms interfering with daily work or causing nighttime awakenings on a daily bases, reported by 4.3% of participants) were associated with cancer mortality (HR 1.48, 95% CI: 1.04-2.05). This increase was too small to noticeably affect overall mortality. Mortality was not associated with onset time or frequency of GERD and was not increased with mild to moderate symptoms. CONCLUSION We have observed an association with GERD and increased cancer mortality in a small group of individuals that had severe symptoms. Most patients with mild to moderate GERD can be re-assured that their symptoms are not associated with increased mortality.

A polymorphism in the GALNT2 gene and ovarian cancer risk in four population based case-control studies.

Recent epidemiologic evidence supports a role for MUC1 in ovarian carcinogenesis; therefore, we hypothesized that common genetic variation in the genes responsible for glycosylation of MUC1 may influence ovarian cancer risk. In a genome-wide association study of ovarian cancer, we observed an association between a non-synonymous SNP (rs2271077) in the UDP-N-acetyl-alpha-d-galactosamine: polypeptide N-acetylgalactosainyltransferase 2 (GALNT2) gene and ovarian cancer risk (p=0.005). We sought to validate the association in four population based ovarian cancer case-control studies collaborating through the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium. Although rs2271077 was associated with a significantly increased risk (Odds Ratio (OR) = 1.37, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 1.06-1.77) in one study with 961 cases and 922 controls, we observed no association in the remaining three studies including 1452 cases and 1954 controls (OR=0.83, 95% CI= 0.66-1.04). Therefore, there appears to be no strong evidence of association between GALNT2 SNP rs2271077 and ovarian cancer risk.