Analysis of Hospitalized and Severe Dengue Cases Over the 6 years of Follow-up of the Tetravalent Dengue Vaccine (CYD-TDV) Efficacy Trials in Asia and Latin America.

BACKGROUND: CYD-TDV, a live, attenuated, tetravalent dengue vaccine, has been approved for the prevention of symptomatic dengue in previously dengue exposed individuals. This post hoc analysis assessed hospitalized and severe virologically confirmed dengue (VCD) over the complete 6-year follow-up of 3 CYD-TDV efficacy studies (CYD14, CYD15, and CYD23/CYD57). METHODS: The main outcomes were hazard ratios (HRs) for hospitalized or severe VCD by baseline dengue serostatus, focusing on those who were seropositive, and by age at immunization (<9 years/≥9 years). Baseline dengue serostatus was measured or inferred using several methods. Hospitalized VCD cases were characterized in terms of clinical signs and symptoms and wild-type viremia level. Antibody persistence was assessed up to 5 years after the last injection. RESULTS: In those aged ≥9 years and baseline seropositive, CYD-TDV protected against hospitalized and severe VCD over 6 years compared to placebo (HR [95% confidence interval] multiple imputation from month 0 method, .19 [.12-.30] and .15 [.06-.39]; other methods were consistent). Vaccine protection was observed over the different study periods, being highest during the first 2 years. Evidence for a decreased risk of hospitalized and severe VCD was also observed in seropositive participants aged 6-8 years. Clinical signs and symptoms, and quantified dengue viremia from participants with hospitalized VCD were comparable between groups. CONCLUSIONS: CYD-TDV demonstrated robust protection against hospitalized and severe VCD over the entire 6-year follow-up in participants who were seropositive and ≥9 years old. Protection was also observed in seropositive 6-8 year-olds. Clinical Trials Registration: NCT00842530, NCT01983553, NCT01373281, NCT01374516.

Estimation of the optimal surrogate based on a randomized trial.

A common scientific problem is to determine a surrogate outcome for a long-term outcome so that future randomized studies can restrict themselves to only collecting the surrogate outcome. We consider the setting that we observe n independent and identically distributed observations of a random variable consisting of baseline covariates, a treatment, a vector of candidate surrogate outcomes at an intermediate time point, and the final outcome of interest at a final time point. We assume the treatment is randomized, conditional on the baseline covariates. The goal is to use these data to learn a most-promising surrogate for use in future trials for inference about a mean contrast treatment effect on the final outcome. We define an optimal surrogate for the current study as the function of the data generating distribution collected by the intermediate time point that satisfies the Prentice definition of a valid surrogate endpoint and that optimally predicts the final outcome: this optimal surrogate is an unknown parameter. We show that this optimal surrogate is a conditional mean and present super-learner and targeted super-learner based estimators, whose predicted outcomes are used as the surrogate in applications. We demonstrate a number of desirable properties of this optimal surrogate and its estimators, and study the methodology in simulations and an application to dengue vaccine efficacy trials.

A Two-Biomarker Model Predicts Mortality in the Critically Ill with Sepsis.

RATIONALE: Improving the prospective identification of patients with systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) and sepsis at low risk for organ dysfunction and death is a major clinical challenge. OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a multibiomarker-based prediction model for 28-day mortality in critically ill patients with SIRS and sepsis. METHODS: A derivation cohort (n = 888) and internal test cohort (n = 278) were taken from a prospective study of critically ill intensive care unit (ICU) patients meeting two of four SIRS criteria at an academic medical center for whom plasma was obtained within 24 hours. The validation cohort (n = 759) was taken from a prospective cohort enrolled at another academic medical center ICU for whom plasma was obtained within 48 hours. We measured concentrations of angiopoietin-1, angiopoietin-2, IL-6, IL-8, soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor-1, soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule-1, granulocyte colony-stimulating factor, and soluble Fas. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We identified a two-biomarker model in the derivation cohort that predicted mortality (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve [AUC], 0.79; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.74-0.83). It performed well in the internal test cohort (AUC, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.65-0.85) and the external validation cohort (AUC, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.72-0.83). We determined a model score threshold demonstrating high negative predictive value (0.95) for death. In addition to a low risk of death, patients below this threshold had shorter ICU length of stay, lower incidence of acute kidney injury, acute respiratory distress syndrome, and need for vasopressors. CONCLUSIONS: We have developed a simple, robust biomarker-based model that identifies patients with SIRS/sepsis at low risk for death and organ dysfunction.

Association of markers of endothelial dysregulation Ang1 and Ang2 with acute kidney injury in critically ill patients.

BACKGROUND: The role of endothelial dysregulation with acute kidney injury (AKI) in critically ill patients is unclear. METHODS: We retrospectively assessed the associations of AKI with biomarkers of endothelial function and inflammation among 948 subjects admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) at Harborview Medical Center (Seattle, WA, USA). From plasma obtained within 24 h of enrollment, we measured angiopoietin (Ang)-1 and Ang-2 alongside biomarkers of inflammation, including interleukin (IL)-6, IL-17 and granulocyte colony-stimulating factor. We tested for associations between standardized concentrations of biomarkers and AKI, defined by serum creatinine, from ICU admission to up to 7 days later. RESULTS: All biomarkers of inflammation and endothelial dysfunction were associated with AKI. After adjustment for demographics, comorbidities, and IL-6 concentration, every standard deviation of Ang-1 concentration was associated with a 19 % lower risk of AKI (relative risk (RR) = 0.85, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.77-0.93, p < 0.001). Conversely, higher Ang-2 concentration was associated with higher risk of AKI (RR per standard deviation = 1.17, 95 % CI 1.13-1.22, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In critically ill patients, plasma concentration of the endothelial growth factors Ang-1 and Ang-2 are associated with AKI, independently of inflammation.

Assessment of the long-term efficacy of a dengue vaccine against symptomatic, virologically-confirmed dengue disease by baseline dengue serostatus.

CYD-TDV is a live, attenuated, tetravalent dengue vaccine licensed in 21 countries. We undertook a post-hoc analysis of the long-term efficacy of CYD-TDV during the surveillance expansion phase (SEP) of two Phase III studies (CYD14 in the Asia-Pacific region; CYD15 in Latin America). The SEP included approximately Year 5 and the entire Year 6 of follow-up after the first study injection. Vaccine efficacy against symptomatic virologically-confirmed dengue (VCD) was assessed by participant age (any age, ≥9, <9, 2-5, and 6-8 years at the time of the first injection) and baseline dengue serostatus using a case-cohort framework. Baseline dengue serostatus was estimated by several methods including logistic regression-based multiple imputation (MI) to predict PRNT50 with key predictor being Month 13 (M13) anti-non-structural protein (NS1) titers; superlearner-based imputation by targeted minimum loss based estimation (TMLE); and M13 anti-NS1 titer threshold 9 EU/mL (NS1 M13). There were 436 symptomatic VCD cases (CYD14: n = 360; CYD15: n = 76) during the SEP. Vaccine efficacy in seropositive participants aged ≥9 years was assessed by MI (47.9% [95% CI 19.4; 66.3]), TMLE (53.0% [95% CI 23; 71]), and NS1 M13 (52.4% [95% CI 30.8; 67.3]). Vaccine efficacy estimates were lower in seropositive individuals aged <9 years compared with individuals ≥9 years. Among seropositive individuals aged 2-5 and 6-8 years, vaccine efficacy across the different approaches for assessing serostatus ranged from between -25.7 to 36.9% and 44.4 to 64.7% during the SEP, respectively. In the pooled CYD14/15 data of seronegatives, vaccine efficacy was null to modest. In conclusion, CYD-TDV was shown to maintain efficacy against symptomatic VCD in seropositive participants aged ≥9 years up to six years after the first dose. Persistence of efficacy was also observed in seropositive participants aged 6-8 years.

Microneutralization assay titer correlates analysis in two phase 3 trials of the CYD-TDV tetravalent dengue vaccine in Asia and Latin America.

We previously showed that Month 13 50% plaque reduction neutralization test (PRNT50) neutralizing antibody (nAb) titers against dengue virus (DENV) correlated with vaccine efficacy (VE) of CYD-TDV against symptomatic, virologically-confirmed dengue (VCD) in the CYD14 and CYD15 Phase 3 trials. While PRNT is the gold standard nAb assay, it is time-consuming and costly. We developed a next-generation high-throughput microneutralization (MN) assay and assessed its suitability for immune-correlates analyses and immuno-bridging applications. We analyzed MN and PRNT50 titers measured at baseline and Month 13 in a randomly sampled immunogenicity subset, and at Month 13 in nearly all VCD cases through Month 25. For each serotype, MN and PRNT50 titers showed high correlations, at both baseline and Month 13, with MN yielding a higher frequency of baseline-seronegatives. For both assays, Month 13 titer correlated inversely with VCD risk. Like PRNT50, high Month 13 MN titers were associated with high VE, and estimated VE increased with average Month 13 MN titer. We also studied each assay as a valid surrogate endpoint based on the Prentice criteria, which supported each assay as a valid surrogate for DENV-1 but only partially valid for DENV-2, -3, and -4. In addition, we applied Super-Learner to assess how well demographic, Month 13 MN, and/or Month 13 PRNT50 titers could predict Month 13-25 VCD outcome status; prediction was best when using demographic, MN, and PRNT50 information. We conclude that Month 13 MN titer performs comparably to Month 13 PRNT50 titer as a correlate of risk, correlate of vaccine efficacy, and surrogate endpoint. The MN assay could potentially be used to assess nAb titers in immunogenicity studies, immune-correlates studies, and immuno-bridging applications. Additional research would be needed for assessing the utility of MN titer in correlates analyses of other DENV endpoints and over longer follow-up periods.

Biomarkers of Endothelial Activation Are Associated with Poor Outcome in Critical Illness.

BACKGROUND: Endothelial activation plays a role in organ dysfunction in the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS). Angiopoietin-1 (Ang-1) promotes vascular quiescence while angiopoietin-2 (Ang-2) mediates microvascular leak. Circulating levels of Ang-1 and Ang-2 in patients with SIRS could provide insight on risks for organ dysfunction and death distinct from inflammatory proteins. In this study, we determined if biomarkers of endothelial activation and inflammation exhibit independent associations with poor outcomes in SIRS. METHODS: We studied 943 critically ill patients with SIRS admitted to an Intensive Care Unit (ICU) of an academic medical center. We measured plasma levels of endothelial markers (Ang-1, Ang-2, soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 (sVCAM-1)) and inflammatory markers (interleukin-6 (IL-6), interleukin-8 (IL-8), granulocyte-colony stimulating factor (G-CSF), soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor-1 (sTNFR-1)) within 24 hours of enrollment. We tested for associations between each marker and 28 day mortality, shock, and day 3 sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score. For 28 day mortality, we performed sensitivity analysis for those subjects with sepsis and those with sterile inflammation. We used multivariate models to adjust for clinical covariates and determine if associations identified with endothelial activation markers were independent of those observed with inflammatory markers. RESULTS: Higher levels of all biomarkers were associated with increased 28 day mortality except levels of Ang-1 which were associated with lower mortality. After adjustment for comorbidities and sTNFR-1 concentration, a doubling of Ang-1 concentration was associated with lower 28 day mortality (Odds ratio (OR) = 0.81; p<0.01), shock (OR = 0.82; p<0.001), and SOFA score (ß = -0.50; p<0.001), while Ang-2 concentration was associated with increased mortality (OR = 1.55; p<0.001), shock (OR = 1.51; p<0.001), and SOFA score (ß = +0.63; p<0.001). sVCAM-1 was not independently associated with SIRS outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: In critically ill patients with SIRS, early measurements of Ang-1 and Ang-2 are associated with death and organ dysfunction independently of simultaneously-measured markers of inflammation.

Tbx5 and Tbx20 act synergistically to control vertebrate heart morphogenesis.

Members of the T-box family of proteins play a fundamental role in patterning the developing vertebrate heart; however, the precise cellular requirements for any one family member and the mechanism by which individual T-box genes function remains largely unknown. In this study, we have investigated the cellular and molecular relationship between two T-box genes, Tbx5 and Tbx20. We demonstrate that blocking Tbx5 or Tbx20 produces phenotypes that display a high degree of similarity, as judged by overall gross morphology, molecular marker analysis and cardiac physiology, implying that the two genes are required for and have non-redundant functions in early heart development. In addition, we demonstrate that although co-expressed, Tbx5 and Tbx20 are not dependent on the expression of one another, but rather have a synergistic role during early heart development. Consistent with this proposal, we show that TBX5 and TBX20 can physically interact and map the interaction domains, and we show a cellular interaction for the two proteins in cardiac development, thus providing the first evidence for direct interaction between members of the T-box gene family.