Climate-driven shifts in the diversity of plants in the Neotropical seasonally dry forest: Evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas.

Given the current environmental crisis, biodiversity protection is one of the most urgent socio-environmental priorities. However, the effectiveness of protected areas (PAs), the primary strategy for safeguarding ecosystems, is challenged by global climate change (GCC), with evidence showing that species are shifting their distributions into new areas, causing novel species assemblages. Therefore, there is a need to evaluate PAs' present and future effectiveness for biodiversity under the GCC. Here, we analyzed changes in the spatiotemporal patterns of taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity (PD) of plants associated with the Neotropical seasonally dry forest (NSDF) under GCC scenarios. We modeled the climatic niche of over 1000 plant species in five representative families (in terms of abundance, dominance, and endemism) of the NSDF. We predicted their potential distributions in the present and future years (2040, 2060, and 2080) based on an intermediate scenario of shared socio-economic pathways (SSP 3.70), allowing species to disperse to new sites or constrained to the current distribution. Then, we tested if the current PAs network represents the taxonomic and phylogenetic diversities. Our results suggest that GCC could promote novel species assemblages with local responses (communities' modifications) across the biome. In general, models predicted losses in the taxonomic and phylogenetic diversities of all the five plant families analyzed across the distribution of the NSDF. However, in the northern floristic groups (i.e., Antilles and Mesoamerica) of the NSDF, taxonomic and PD will be stable in GCC projections. In contrast, across the NSDF in South America, some cores will lose diversity while others will gain diversity under GCC scenarios. PAs in some NSDF regions appeared insufficient to protect the NSDF diversity. Thus, there is an urgent need to assess how the PA system could be better reconfigured to warrant the protection of the NSDF.

Dada la actual crisis ambiental, la protección de la biodiversidad se presenta como una de las prioridades socio ambientales más urgentes. Sin embargo, la efectividad de las áreas protegidas (AP), la estrategia principal para salvaguardar los ecosistemas, se ve desafiada por el cambio climático global (CCG), con evidencia que muestra que las especies están desplazando sus distribuciones hacia nuevas áreas, provocando conjuntos de especies novedosos. Por lo tanto, es necesario evaluar la efectividad actual y futura de las AP para la biodiversidad bajo el CCG. En este contexto, analizamos cambios en los patrones espacio­temporales de diversidad taxonómica y filogenética de plantas asociadas al bosque estacionalmente seco neotropical (BES) bajo escenarios de CCG. Modelamos el nicho climático de más de 1,000 especies de plantas en cinco familias representativas (en términos de abundancia, dominancia y endemismo) del BES. Pronosticamos sus distribuciones potenciales en los años actuales y futuros (2040, 2060 y 2080) basándonos en un escenario intermedio de trayectorias socioeconómicas compartidas (SSP 3.70), permitiendo que las especies se dispersen a nuevos sitios o estén limitadas a la distribución actual. Luego, evaluamos si la red actual de AP representa las diversidades taxonómicas y filogenéticas. Nuestros resultados sugieren que el CCG podría promover conjuntos de especies novedosos con respuestas locales (modificaciones en las comunidades) en todo el bioma. En general, los modelos pronosticaron pérdidas en las diversidades taxonómicas y filogenéticas de las cinco familias de plantas analizadas en la distribución del BES. Sin embargo, en los grupos florísticos del norte (es decir, Antillas y Mesoamérica) del BSDN, la diversidad taxonómica y filogenética se mantendrá estable en las proyecciones de CCG. En cambio, en toda la región del BES en América del Sur, algunos núcleos perderán diversidad mientras que otros ganarán diversidad bajo escenarios de CCG. Algunas AP en regiones del BES parecen ser insuficientes para proteger la diversidad del bioma. Por lo tanto, es urgente evaluar cómo se podría reconfigurar mejor el sistema de AP para garantizar la protección del BES.

Distributional patterns of Neotropical seasonally dry forest birds: a biogeographical regionalization.

Neotropical seasonally dry forests (NSDFs) are widely distributed and possess high levels of species richness and endemism; however, their biogeography remains only partially understood. Using species distribution modelling and parsimony analysis of endemicity, we analysed the distributional patterns of the NSDF avifauna in order to identify their areas of endemism and provide a better understanding of the historical relationships among those areas. The strict consensus trees revealed 17 areas of endemism for NSDFs, which involve four large regions: Baja California, Caribbean-Antilles islands, Mesoamerica and South America. These well-resolved clades are circumscribed by geographical and ecological barriers associated with the Gulf of California, the leading edge of the Caribbean plate, the Tehuantepec Isthmus, the Polochic-Motagua fault, the Nicaragua Depression, the Chocó forest, the Amazon basin and the Andean Cordillera. Relationships among groups of NSDFs found here suggest that evolution of their avifauna involved a mixture of vicariance and dispersal events. Our results support the idea of independent diversification patterns and biogeographical processes in each region, including those previously associated with the Pleistocene Arc Hypothesis for NSDFs of south-eastern South America. This study provides a biogeographical framework to open new lines of research related to the biotic diversification of NSDFs.

Response of the endangered tropical dry forests to climate change and the role of Mexican Protected Areas for their conservation.

Assuming that co-distributed species are exposed to similar environmental conditions, ecological niche models (ENMs) of bird and plant species inhabiting tropical dry forests (TDFs) in Mexico were developed to evaluate future projections of their distribution for the years 2050 and 2070. We used ENM-based predictions and climatic data for two Global Climate Models, considering two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP4.5/RCP8.5). We also evaluated the effects of habitat loss and the importance of the Mexican system of protected areas (PAs) on the projected models for a more detailed prediction of TDFs and to identify hot spots that require conservation actions. We identified four major distributional areas: the main one located along the Pacific Coast (from Sonora to Chiapas, including the Cape and Bajío regions, and the Balsas river basin), and three isolated areas: the Yucatán peninsula, central Veracruz, and southern Tamaulipas. When considering the effect of habitat loss, a significant reduction (~61%) of the TDFs predicted area occurred, whereas climate-change models suggested (in comparison with the present distribution model) an increase in area of 3.0-10.0% and 3.0-9.0% for 2050 and 2070, respectively. In future scenarios, TDFs will occupy areas above its current average elevational distribution that are outside of its present geographical range. Our findings show that TDFs may persist in Mexican territory until the middle of the XXI century; however, the challenges about long-term conservation are partially addressed (only 7% unaffected within the Mexican network of PAs) with the current Mexican PAs network. Based on our ENM approach, we suggest that a combination of models of species inhabiting present TDFs and taking into account change scenarios represent an invaluable tool to create new PAs and ecological corridors, as a response to the increasing levels of habitat destruction and the effects of climate change on this ecosystem.

Research priorities for maintaining biodiversity's contributions to people in Latin America.

Maintaining biodiversity is crucial for ensuring human well-being. The authors participated in a workshop held in Palenque, Mexico, in August 2018, that brought together 30 mostly early-career scientists working in different disciplines (natural, social and economic sciences) with the aim of identifying research priorities for studying the contributions of biodiversity to people and how these contributions might be impacted by environmental change. Five main groups of questions emerged: (1) Enhancing the quantity, quality, and availability of biodiversity data; (2) Integrating different knowledge systems; (3) Improved methods for integrating diverse data; (4) Fundamental questions in ecology and evolution; and (5) Multi-level governance across boundaries. We discuss the need for increased capacity building and investment in research programmes to address these challenges.

On geographic barriers and Pleistocene glaciations: Tracing the diversification of the Russet-crowned Warbler (Myiothlypis coronata) along the Andes.

We studied the phylogeography and plumage variation of the Russet-crowned Warbler (Myiothlypis coronata), from Venezuela to Bolivia, with focus on populations from Ecuador and northern Peru. We analyzed sequences of mitochondrial and nuclear genes, geographic distributions, as well as photographs of specimens deposited at museum collections. Phylogenetic analyses identified three major lineages formed by populations from: Venezuela and Colombia (M. c. regulus), Ecuador and northern Peru (M. elata, M. castaneiceps, M. orientalis, M. c. chapmani), and central Peru and Bolivia (M. c. coronata). We found further population structure within M. c. regulus and M. c. coronata, and population structure and complexity of plumage variation within the Ecuador-northern Peru lineage. Time-calibrated trees estimated that most intraspecific variation originated during the Pleistocene; however, this pattern may not be attributed to an increase in diversification rate during that period. We discuss these results in the context of the importance of geographic-ecological barriers in promoting lineage diversification along the Andes and put forward a preliminary taxonomic proposal for major lineages identified in this study.

Reconstructing the Mexican Tropical Dry Forests via an Autoecological Niche Approach: Reconsidering the Ecosystem Boundaries.

We used Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) of individual species of two taxonomic groups (plants and birds) in order to reconstruct the climatic distribution of Tropical Dry Forests (TDFs) in Mexico and to analyze their boundaries with other terrestrial ecosystems. The reconstruction for TDFs' distribution was analyzed considering the prediction and omission errors based upon the combination of species, obtained from the overlap of individual models (only plants, only birds, and all species combined). Two verifications were used: a primary vegetation map and 100 independent TDFs localities. We performed a Principal Component (PCA) and Discriminant Analysis (DA) to evaluate the variation in the environmental variables and ecological overlap among ecosystems. The modeling strategies showed differences in the ecological patterns and prediction areas, where the "all species combined" model (with a threshold of ≥10 species) was the best strategy to use in the TDFs reconstruction. We observed a concordance of 78% with the primary vegetation map and a prediction of 98% of independent locality records. Although PCA and DA tests explained 75.78% and 97.9% of variance observed, respectively, we observed an important overlap among the TDFs with other adjacent ecosystems, confirming the existence of transition zones among them. We successfully modeled the distribution of Mexican TDFs using a number of bioclimatic variables and co-distributed species. This autoecological niche approach suggests the necessity of rethinking the delimitations of ecosystems based on the recognition of transition zones among them in order to understand the real nature of communities and association patterns of species.

Ecological and geographical analysis of the distribution of the mountain tapir (Tapirus pinchaque) in Ecuador: importance of protected areas in future scenarios of global warming.

In Ecuador, Tapirus pinchaque is considered to be critically endangered. Although the species has been registered in several localities, its geographic distribution remains unclear, and the effects of climate change and current land uses on this species are largely unknown. We modeled the ecological niche of T. pinchaque using MaxEnt, in order to assess its potential adaptation to present and future climate change scenarios. We evaluated the effects of habitat loss due by current land use, the ecosystem availability and importance of Ecuadorian System of Protected Areas into the models. The model of environmental suitability estimated an extent of occurrence for species of 21,729 km2 in all of Ecuador, mainly occurring along the corridor of the eastern Ecuadorian Andes. A total of 10 Andean ecosystems encompassed ~98% of the area defined by the model, with herbaceous paramo, northeastern Andean montane evergreen forest and northeastern Andes upper montane evergreen forest being the most representative. When considering the effect of habitat loss, a significant reduction in model area (~17%) occurred, and the effect of climate change represented a net reduction up to 37.86%. However, the synergistic effect of both climate change and habitat loss, given current land use practices, could represent a greater risk in the short-term, leading to a net reduction of 19.90 to 44.65% in T. pinchaque's potential distribution. Even under such a scenarios, several Protected Areas harbor a portion (~36 to 48%) of the potential distribution defined by the models. However, the central and southern populations are highly threatened by habitat loss and climate change. Based on these results and due to the restricted home range of T. pinchaque, its preference for upland forests and paramos, and its small estimated population size in the Andes, we suggest to maintaining its current status as Critically Endangered in Ecuador.

Breeding biology and hatching success of Chelonia mydas (Testudines: Cheloniidae) in Aves Island Wildlife Refuge, Venezuela, during the 2010 reproductive season

ves Island Wildlife Refuge is the second most important nesting colony for green turtles (Chelonia mydas) in the Caribbean. Even though some research projects have led to a solid source of knowledge about this species' ecology, little information about its breeding biology is available. This study was focused on assessing the breeding characteristics and hatching success for the nesting population during the 2010 season in Aves Island, Venezuela. Nesting data were collected along the entire beach line from July 31st to November 09th by nightly patrols, in order to determine green turtle nesting activity. All females were tagged and measured to compare the new recruits with remigrant females. We determined the number of nesting females, the size and spatial distribution of clutches, the incubation period, the internesting and remigration periods, as well as the hatching and emergence success for first time in Aves Island. Beach dimensions were measured to determine nest density. We recorded 1 106 nesting females with 436 remigrant females individually identified. The female population had an average curved carapace length of 112.2 ± 5.5 cm. The average clutch size was of 124 ± 25.7 eggs, with an estimated clutch frequency of 2 nests/females, and an average inferred clutch period of 12.4 days. We estimated the total number of clutches to be 2 261 ± 33 and a total of 1 130 ± 17 nesting females for the 2010 season. For in situ nests, we observed a Mean hatching and emergence success of 54.4 ± 30.0% and 74.3 ± 29.2%, respectively. There was a positive correlation between the morphometrics of nesting females and clutch size, and also significant differences in the number of clutches and hatching and emergence success among the different island sections of the study site. Our results are only a first attempt at characterizing this site population, but have great value for establishing conservation priorities within the context of national management plans. Care should be taken in extrapolating our data to other years, as there is a need to continue monitoring the nesting beach and developing conservation strategies directed at all life-stages of the population. Rev. Biol. Trop. 63(4): 1059-1070. Epub 2015 December 01.

l Refugio de Fauna Silvestre Isla de Aves (Venezuela) es la segunda colonia anidadora más importante para la tortuga verde (Chelonia mydas) en el Caribe, y su proyecto de investigación representa una sólida fuente de conocimiento sobre la ecología de esta especie. Sin embargo, existe poca información disponible sobre su biología reproductiva. Esta investigación estuvo enfocada en la evaluación de las características reproductivas y éxito de eclosión de la población anidadora durante la temporada 2010 en Isla de Aves. Los datos de anidación fueron recogidos a lo largo de la playa durante patrullajes nocturnos del 31 de julio al 09 de noviembre con el fin de determinar la actividad de anidación de las tortugas. Todas las hembras fueron marcadas y medidas para comparar los datos de las nuevas reclutas con los de las hembras remigrantes. Fue determinado el número de hembras anidadoras, el tamaño y la distribución espacial de las nidadas, el período de incubación, los períodos interanidación y remigración, así como el éxito de eclosión y emergencia por primera vez en la RFSIA. Se midieron las dimensiones de playa para determinar la densidad de nidos a lo largo de sus secciones. Fueron registradas 1 106 hembras anidadoras, de las cuales 436 hembras fueron identificadas individualmente como remigrantes. Las hembras anidadoras tuvieron un largo curvo del caparazón promedio de 112.2 ± 5.5 cm. La media para el tamaño de las nidadas fue de 124.0 ± 25.7 huevos, con una frecuencia de puesta estimada de 2.0 nidos/hembra y un intervalo de puesta inferido de 12.4 días. Estimamos un total de 2 261 ± 33 nidadas y un rango de 1 130 ± 17 hembras anidadodra para la temporada 2010. Para las nidadas insitu observamos un éxito de eclosión de 54.4 ± 30.0 % y un éxito de emergencia de 74.3 ± 29.2 %. Observamos una correlación positiva entre la morfometría de las hembras anidadoras y el tamaño de la nidada, así como diferencias significativas en el número de nidadas, los éxitos de eclosión y emergencia entre las tres secciones de la isla. Estos resultados son una primera aproximación para la caracterización de la población de Isla de Aves, pero tienen gran valor para establecer prioridades de conservación dentro del contexto de los planes de manejo nacionales. Los valores observados en este trabajo deben ser extrapolados con cuidados a otros años, ya que existe una importante necesidad de continuar con el monitoreo de la anidación, así como de desarrollar estrategias de conservación dirigidas a todas las etapas de vida de la población.