Fast and flexible inference for joint models of multivariate longitudinal and survival data using integrated nested Laplace approximations.

Modeling longitudinal and survival data jointly offers many advantages such as addressing measurement error and missing data in the longitudinal processes, understanding and quantifying the association between the longitudinal markers and the survival events, and predicting the risk of events based on the longitudinal markers. A joint model involves multiple submodels (one for each longitudinal/survival outcome) usually linked together through correlated or shared random effects. Their estimation is computationally expensive (particularly due to a multidimensional integration of the likelihood over the random effects distribution) so that inference methods become rapidly intractable, and restricts applications of joint models to a small number of longitudinal markers and/or random effects. We introduce a Bayesian approximation based on the integrated nested Laplace approximation algorithm implemented in the R package R-INLA to alleviate the computational burden and allow the estimation of multivariate joint models with fewer restrictions. Our simulation studies show that R-INLA substantially reduces the computation time and the variability of the parameter estimates compared with alternative estimation strategies. We further apply the methodology to analyze five longitudinal markers (3 continuous, 1 count, 1 binary, and 16 random effects) and competing risks of death and transplantation in a clinical trial on primary biliary cholangitis. R-INLA provides a fast and reliable inference technique for applying joint models to the complex multivariate data encountered in health research.

Patient-perceived progression in multiple system atrophy: natural history of quality of life.

BACKGROUND: Health-related quality of life (Hr-QoL) scales provide crucial information on neurodegenerative disease progression, help improve patient care and constitute a meaningful endpoint for therapeutic research. However, Hr-QoL progression is usually poorly documented, as for multiple system atrophy (MSA), a rare and rapidly progressing alpha-synucleinopathy. This work aimed to describe Hr-QoL progression during the natural course of MSA, explore disparities between patients and identify informative items using a four-step statistical strategy. METHODS: We leveraged the data of the French MSA cohort comprising annual assessments with the MSA-QoL questionnaire for more than 500 patients over up to 11 years. A four-step strategy (1) determined the subdimensions of Hr-QoL, (2) modelled the subdimension trajectories over time, (3) mapped item impairments with disease stages and (4) identified most informative items. RESULTS: Four dimensions were identified. In addition to the original motor, non-motor and emotional domains, an oropharyngeal component was highlighted. While the motor and oropharyngeal domains deteriorated rapidly, the non-motor and emotional aspects were already impaired at cohort entry and deteriorated slowly over the disease course. Impairments were associated with sex, diagnosis subtype and delay since symptom onset. Except for the emotional domain, each dimension was driven by key identified items. CONCLUSION: The multidimensional Hr-QoL deteriorates progressively over the course of MSA and brings essential knowledge for improving patient care. As exemplified with MSA, the thorough description of Hr-QoL over time using the four-step strategy can provide perspectives on neurodegenerative diseases' management to ultimately deliver better support focused on the patient's perspective.

Haemoglobin trajectories in chronic kidney disease and risk of major adverse cardiovascular events.

BACKGROUND: The trajectories of haemoglobin in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) have been poorly described. In such patients, we aimed to identify typical haemoglobin trajectory profiles and estimate their risks of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). METHODS: We used 5-year longitudinal data from the CKD-REIN cohort patients with moderate to severe CKD enrolled from 40 nationally representative nephrology clinics in France. A joint latent class model was used to estimate, in different classes of haemoglobin trajectory, the competing risks of (i) MACE + defined as the first event among cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke or hospitalization for acute heart failure, (ii) initiation of kidney replacement therapy (KRT) and (iii) non-cardiovascular death. RESULTS: During the follow-up, we gathered 33 874 haemoglobin measurements from 3011 subjects (median, 10 per patient). We identified five distinct haemoglobin trajectory profiles. The predominant profile (n = 1885, 62.6%) showed an overall stable trajectory and low risks of events. The four other profiles had nonlinear declining trajectories: early strong decline (n = 257, 8.5%), late strong decline (n = 75, 2.5%), early moderate decline (n = 356, 11.8%) and late moderate decline (n = 438, 14.6%). The four profiles had different risks of MACE, while the risks of KRT and non-cardiovascular death consistently increased from the haemoglobin decline. CONCLUSION: In this study, we observed that two-thirds of patients had a stable haemoglobin trajectory and low risks of adverse events. The other third had a nonlinear trajectory declining at different rates, with increased risks of events. Better attention should be paid to dynamic changes of haemoglobin in CKD.

Functional Principal Component Analysis as an Alternative to Mixed-Effect Models for Describing Sparse Repeated Measures in Presence of Missing Data.

Analyzing longitudinal data in health studies is challenging due to sparse and error-prone measurements, strong within-individual correlation, missing data and various trajectory shapes. While mixed-effect models (MM) effectively address these challenges, they remain parametric models and may incur computational costs. In contrast, functional principal component analysis (FPCA) is a non-parametric approach developed for regular and dense functional data that flexibly describes temporal trajectories at a potentially lower computational cost. This article presents an empirical simulation study evaluating the behavior of FPCA with sparse and error-prone repeated measures and its robustness under different missing data schemes in comparison with MM. The results show that FPCA is well-suited in the presence of missing at random data caused by dropout, except in scenarios involving most frequent and systematic dropout. Like MM, FPCA fails under missing not at random mechanism. The FPCA was applied to describe the trajectories of four cognitive functions before clinical dementia and contrast them with those of matched controls in a case-control study nested in a population-based aging cohort. The average cognitive declines of future dementia cases showed a sudden divergence from those of their matched controls with a sharp acceleration 5 to 2.5 years prior to diagnosis.

Recent Advances in Clinical Trials in Multiple System Atrophy.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: This review summarizes previous and ongoing neuroprotection trials in multiple system atrophy (MSA), a rare and fatal neurodegenerative disease characterized by parkinsonism, cerebellar, and autonomic dysfunction. It also describes the preclinical therapeutic pipeline and provides some considerations relevant to successfully conducting clinical trials in MSA, i.e., diagnosis, endpoints, and trial design. RECENT FINDINGS: Over 30 compounds have been tested in clinical trials in MSA. While this illustrates a strong treatment pipeline, only two have reached their primary endpoint. Ongoing clinical trials primarily focus on targeting α-synuclein, the neuropathological hallmark of MSA being α-synuclein-bearing glial cytoplasmic inclusions. The mostly negative trial outcomes highlight the importance of better understanding underlying disease mechanisms and improving preclinical models. Together with efforts to refine clinical measurement tools, innovative statistical methods, and developments in biomarker research, this will enhance the design of future neuroprotection trials in MSA and the likelihood of positive outcomes.

Association of dietary and nutritional factors with cognitive decline, dementia, and depressive symptomatology in older individuals according to a neurogenesis-centred biological susceptibility to brain ageing.

Hippocampal neurogenesis (HN) occurs throughout the life course and is important for memory and mood. Declining with age, HN plays a pivotal role in cognitive decline (CD), dementia, and late-life depression, such that altered HN could represent a neurobiological susceptibility to these conditions. Pertinently, dietary patterns (e.g., Mediterranean diet) and/or individual nutrients (e.g., vitamin D, omega 3) can modify HN, but also modify risk for CD, dementia, and depression. Therefore, the interaction between diet/nutrition and HN may alter risk trajectories for these ageing-related brain conditions. Using a subsample (n = 371) of the Three-City cohort-where older adults provided information on diet and blood biobanking at baseline and were assessed for CD, dementia, and depressive symptomatology across 12 years-we tested for interactions between food consumption, nutrient intake, and nutritional biomarker concentrations and neurogenesis-centred susceptibility status (defined by baseline readouts of hippocampal progenitor cell integrity, cell death, and differentiation) on CD, Alzheimer's disease (AD), vascular and other dementias (VoD), and depressive symptomatology, using multivariable-adjusted logistic regression models. Increased plasma lycopene concentrations (OR [95% CI] = 1.07 [1.01, 1.14]), higher red meat (OR [95% CI] = 1.10 [1.03, 1.19]), and lower poultry consumption (OR [95% CI] = 0.93 [0.87, 0.99]) were associated with an increased risk for AD in individuals with a neurogenesis-centred susceptibility. Increased vitamin D consumption (OR [95% CI] = 1.05 [1.01, 1.11]) and plasma γ-tocopherol concentrations (OR [95% CI] = 1.08 [1.01, 1.18]) were associated with increased risk for VoD and depressive symptomatology, respectively, but only in susceptible individuals. This research highlights an important role for diet/nutrition in modifying dementia and depression risk in individuals with a neurogenesis-centred susceptibility.

Trajectories of long-term exposure to PCB153 and Benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) air pollution and risk of breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: While genetic, hormonal, and lifestyle factors partially elucidate the incidence of breast cancer, emerging research has underscored the potential contribution of air pollution. Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) are of particular concern due to endocrine-disrupting properties and their carcinogenetic effect. OBJECTIVE: To identify distinct long term trajectories of exposure to PCB153 and BaP, and estimate their associations with breast cancer risk. METHODS: We used data from the XENAIR case-control study, nested within the ongoing prospective French E3N cohort which enrolled 98,995 women aged 40-65 years in 1990-1991. Cases were incident cases of primary invasive breast cancer diagnosed from cohort entry to 2011. Controls were randomly selected by incidence density sampling, and individually matched to cases on delay since cohort entry, and date, age, department of residence, and menopausal status at cohort entry. Annual mean outdoor PCB153 and BaP concentrations at residential addresses from 1990 to 2011 were estimated using the CHIMERE chemistry-transport model. Latent class mixed models were used to identify profiles of exposure trajectories from cohort entry to the index date, and conditional logistic regression to estimate their association with the odds of breast cancer. RESULTS: 5058 cases and 5059 controls contributed to the analysis. Five profiles of trajectories of PCB153 exposure were identified. The class with the highest PCB153 concentrations had a 69% increased odds of breast cancer compared to the class with the lowest concentrations (95% CI 1.08, 2.64), after adjustment for education and matching factors. The association between identified BaP trajectories and breast cancer was weaker and suffered from large CI. CONCLUSIONS: Our results support an association between long term exposure to PCB153 and the risk of breast cancer, and encourage further studies to account for lifetime exposure to persistent organic pollutants.

Addressing unmeasured confounders in cohort studies: Instrumental variable method for a time-fixed exposure on an outcome trajectory.

Instrumental variable methods, which handle unmeasured confounding by targeting the part of the exposure explained by an exogenous variable not subject to confounding, have gained much interest in observational studies. We consider the very frequent setting of estimating the unconfounded effect of an exposure measured at baseline on the subsequent trajectory of an outcome repeatedly measured over time. We didactically explain how to apply the instrumental variable method in such setting by adapting the two-stage classical methodology with (1) the prediction of the exposure according to the instrumental variable, (2) its inclusion into a mixed model to quantify the exposure association with the subsequent outcome trajectory, and (3) the computation of the estimated total variance. A simulation study illustrates the consequences of unmeasured confounding in classical analyses and the usefulness of the instrumental variable approach. The methodology is then applied to 6224 participants of the 3C cohort to estimate the association of type-2 diabetes with subsequent cognitive trajectory, using 42 genetic polymorphisms as instrumental variables. This contribution shows how to handle endogeneity when interested in repeated outcomes, along with a R implementation. However, it should still be used with caution as it relies on instrumental variable assumptions hardly testable in practice.

Association of LIfestyle for BRAin health risk score (LIBRA) and genetic susceptibility with incident dementia and cognitive decline.

INTRODUCTION: Evaluating whether genetic susceptibility modifies the impact of lifestyle-related factors on dementia is critical for prevention. METHODS: We studied 5170 participants from a French cohort of older persons free of dementia at baseline and followed for up to 17 years. The LIfestyle for BRAin health risk score (LIBRA) including 12 modifiable factors was constructed at baseline (higher score indicating greater risk) and was related to both subsequent cognitive decline and dementia incidence, according to genetic susceptibility to dementia (reflected by the apolipoprotein E [APOE] ε4 allele and a genetic risk score [GRS]). RESULTS: The LIBRA was associated with higher dementia incidence, with no significant effect modification by genetics (hazard ratio for one point score = 1.09 [95% confidence interval, 1.05; 1.13]) in APOE ε4 non-carriers and = 1.15 [1.08; 1.22] in carriers; P = 0.15 for interaction). Similar findings were obtained with the GRS and with cognitive decline. DISCUSSION: Lifestyle-based prevention may be effective whatever the genetic susceptibility to dementia.

Impaired hippocampal neurogenesis in vitro is modulated by dietary-related endogenous factors and associated with depression in a longitudinal ageing cohort study.

Environmental factors like diet have been linked to depression and/or relapse risk in later life. This could be partially driven by the food metabolome, which communicates with the brain via the circulatory system and interacts with hippocampal neurogenesis (HN), a form of brain plasticity implicated in depression aetiology. Despite the associations between HN, diet and depression, human data further substantiating this hypothesis are largely missing. Here, we used an in vitro model of HN to test the effects of serum samples from a longitudinal ageing cohort of 373 participants, with or without depressive symptomology. 1% participant serum was applied to human fetal hippocampal progenitor cells, and changes in HN markers were related to the occurrence of depressive symptoms across a 12-year period. Key nutritional, metabolomic and lipidomic biomarkers (extracted from participant plasma and serum) were subsequently tested for their ability to modulate HN. In our assay, we found that reduced cell death and increased neuronal differentiation were associated with later life depressive symptomatology. Additionally, we found impairments in neuronal cell morphology in cells treated with serum from participants experiencing recurrent depressive symptoms across the 12-year period. Interestingly, we found that increased neuronal differentiation was modulated by increased serum levels of metabolite butyrylcarnitine and decreased glycerophospholipid, PC35:1(16:0/19:1), levels - both of which are closely linked to diet - all in the context of depressive symptomology. These findings potentially suggest that diet and altered HN could subsequently shape the trajectory of late-life depressive symptomology.