Plasma immune signatures can predict rejection-free survival in the first year after pediatric liver transplantation.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: After pediatric liver transplantation (pLT), children undergo life-long immunosuppression since reliable biomarkers for the assessment of rejection probability are scarce. In the multicenter (n = 7) prospective clinical cohort "ChilSFree" study, we aimed to characterize longitudinal dynamics of soluble and cellular immune mediators during the first year after pLT and identify early biomarkers associated with outcome. METHODS: Using a Luminex-based multiplex technique paired with flow cytometry, we characterized longitudinal dynamics of soluble immune mediators (SIMs, n = 50) and immune cells in the blood of 244 patients at eight visits over 1 year: before, and 7/14/21/28 days and 3/6/12 months after pLT. RESULTS: The unsupervised clustering of patients based on SIM profiles revealed six unique SIM signatures associated with clinical outcome. From three signatures linked to improved outcome, one was associated with 1-year-long rejection-free survival and stable graft function and was characterized by low levels of pro-inflammatory SIMs (CXCL8/9/10/12, CCL7, SCGF-ß, sICAM-1), and high levels of regenerative (SCF, TNF-ß) and pro-apoptotic (TRAIL) SIMs (all, p <0.001, fold change >100). Of note, this SIM signature appeared 2 weeks after pLT and remained stable over the entire year, pointing towards its potential as a novel early biomarker for minimizing or weaning immunosuppression. In the blood of these patients, a higher frequency of CD56bright natural killer cells (p <0.01), a known hallmark also associated with operationally tolerant pLT patients, was detected. The concordance of the model for prediction of rejection based on identified SIM signatures was 0.715, and 0.795, in combination with living-related transplantation as a covariate, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: SIM blood signatures may enable the non-invasive and early assessment of rejection risks in the first year after pLT, paving the way for improved clinical management. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: ChilSFree represents the largest pediatric liver transplant (pLT) cohort with paired longitudinal data on soluble immune mediators (SIMs) and immune phenotyping in the first year after pLT. SIM signatures allow for the selection of rejection-free patients 2 weeks after pLT independently of patient diagnosis, sex, or age. The SIM signatures may enable the non-invasive and early assessment of rejection risks, paving the way for minimization or withdrawal of immunosuppression after pLT.

Early steroids after pediatric liver transplantation protect against T-cell-mediated rejection: Results from the ChilSFree study.

Steroid-free immunosuppression protocols gained popularity in pediatric liver transplantation (pLT) after the introduction of IL-2-receptor blockade for induction therapy. We analyzed the clinical and immunologic outcome data of the multicenter prospective observational ChilSFree study to compare the impact of steroid-free versus steroid-containing immunosuppressive therapy following pLT in a real-life scenario. Two hundred forty-six children [55.3% male, age at pLT median: 2.4 (range: 0.2-17.9) y] transplanted for biliary atresia (43%), metabolic liver disease (9%), acute liver failure (4%), hepatoblastoma (9%), and other chronic end-stage liver diseases (39%) underwent immune monitoring and clinical data documentation over the first year after pLT. Patient and graft survival at 1 year was 98.0% and 92.7%, respectively. Primary immunosuppression was basiliximab induction followed by tacrolimus (Tac) monotherapy (55%), Tac plus steroid tapering over 3 months (29%), or cyclosporine and steroid tapering (7%). One center used intraoperative steroids instead of basiliximab followed by Tac plus mycophenolate mofetil (7% of patients). N = 124 biopsy-proven T-cell-mediated rejections were documented in n = 82 (33.3%) patients. T-cell-mediated rejection occurred early (median: 41 d, range: 3-366 d) after pLT. Patients initially treated with Tac plus steroids experienced significantly fewer episodes of rejection than patients treated with Tac alone (chi-square p <0.01). The use of steroids was associated with earlier downregulation of proinflammatory cytokines interferon (IFN)-γ, Interleukin (IL)-6, CX motif chemokin ligand (CXCL)8, IL-7, and IL-12p70. Both primary immunosuppression with Tac plus steroids and living donor liver transplantation were independent predictors of rejection-free survival 1 year after pLT on logistic regression analysis. Adjunctive steroid therapy after pLT leads to earlier suppression of the post-pLT proinflammatory response and significantly reduced rejection rates during the first year after pLT (15.9%). Fifty-one percent of patients initially treated without steroids remain steroid-free over the first 12 months without rejection.

Estimates of protection levels against SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe COVID-19 in Germany before the 2022/2023 winter season: the IMMUNEBRIDGE project.

PURPOSE: Despite the need to generate valid and reliable estimates of protection levels against SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe course of COVID-19 for the German population in summer 2022, there was a lack of systematically collected population-based data allowing for the assessment of the protection level in real time. METHODS: In the IMMUNEBRIDGE project, we harmonised data and biosamples for nine population-/hospital-based studies (total number of participants n = 33,637) to provide estimates for protection levels against SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe COVID-19 between June and November 2022. Based on evidence synthesis, we formed a combined endpoint of protection levels based on the number of self-reported infections/vaccinations in combination with nucleocapsid/spike antibody responses ("confirmed exposures"). Four confirmed exposures represented the highest protection level, and no exposure represented the lowest. RESULTS: Most participants were seropositive against the spike antigen; 37% of the participants ≥ 79 years had less than four confirmed exposures (highest level of protection) and 5% less than three. In the subgroup of participants with comorbidities, 46-56% had less than four confirmed exposures. We found major heterogeneity across federal states, with 4-28% of participants having less than three confirmed exposures. CONCLUSION: Using serological analyses, literature synthesis and infection dynamics during the survey period, we observed moderate to high levels of protection against severe COVID-19, whereas the protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection was low across all age groups. We found relevant protection gaps in the oldest age group and amongst individuals with comorbidities, indicating a need for additional protective measures in these groups.

Gut microbiota dysbiosis in Parkinson disease: A systematic review and pooled analysis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The role of the gut microbiome in the pathogenesis of Parkinson disease (PD) is under intense investigation, and the results presented are still very heterogeneous. These discrepancies arise not only from the highly heterogeneous pathology of PD, but also from widely varying methodologies at all stages of the workflow, from sampling to final statistical analysis. The aim of the present work is to harmonize the workflow across studies to reduce the methodological heterogeneity and to perform a pooled analysis to account for other sources of heterogeneity. METHODS: We performed a systematic review to identify studies comparing the gut microbiota of PD patients to healthy controls. A workflow was designed to harmonize processing across all studies from bioinformatics processing to final statistical analysis using a Bayesian random-effects meta-analysis based on individual patient-level data. RESULTS: The results show that harmonizing workflows minimizes differences between statistical methods and reveals only a small set of taxa being associated with the pathogenesis of PD. Increased shares of the genera Akkermansia and Bifidobacterium and decreased shares of the genera Roseburia and Faecalibacterium were most characteristic for PD-associated microbiota. CONCLUSIONS: Our study summarizes evidence that reduced levels of butyrate-producing taxa in combination with possible degradation of the mucus layer by Akkermansia may promote intestinal inflammation and reduced permeability of the gut mucosal layer. This may allow potentially pathogenic metabolites to transit and enter the enteric nervous system.

Effect of risk status for severe COVID-19 on individual contact behaviour during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in 2020/2021-an analysis based on the German COVIMOD study.

BACKGROUND: One of the primary aims of contact restriction measures during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has been to protect people at increased risk of severe disease from the virus. Knowledge about the uptake of contact restriction measures in this group is critical for public health decision-making. We analysed data from the German contact survey COVIMOD to assess differences in contact patterns based on risk status, and compared this to pre-pandemic data to establish whether there was a differential response to contact reduction measures. METHODS: We quantified differences in contact patterns according to risk status by fitting a generalised linear model accounting for within-participant clustering to contact data from 31 COVIMOD survey waves (April 2020-December 2021), and estimated the population-averaged ratio of mean contacts of persons with high risk for a severe COVID-19 outcome due to age or underlying health conditions, to those without. We then compared the results to pre-pandemic data from the contact surveys HaBIDS and POLYMOD. RESULTS: Averaged across all analysed waves, COVIMOD participants reported a mean of 3.21 (95% confidence interval (95%CI) 3.14,3.28) daily contacts (truncated at 100), compared to 18.10 (95%CI 17.12,19.06) in POLYMOD and 28.27 (95%CI 26.49,30.15) in HaBIDS. After adjusting for confounders, COVIMOD participants aged 65 or above had 0.83 times (95%CI 0.79,0.87) the number of contacts as younger age groups. In POLYMOD, this ratio was 0.36 (95%CI 0.30,0.43). There was no clear difference in contact patterns due to increased risk from underlying health conditions in either HaBIDS or COVIMOD. We also found that persons in COVIMOD at high risk due to old age increased their non-household contacts less than those not at such risk after strict restriction measures were lifted. CONCLUSIONS: Over the course of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, there was a general reduction in contact numbers in the German population and also a differential response to contact restriction measures based on risk status for severe COVID-19. This differential response needs to be taken into account for parametrisations of mathematical models in a pandemic setting.

Major depressive disorders increase the susceptibility to self-reported infections in two German cohort studies.

INTRODUCTION: In several claims-based studies, major depressive disorder (MDD) has been associated with increased risk of hospitalization due to acute infections. It remains unclear if this is a causal effect, and if it generalizes to an increased susceptibility to infections. METHODS: We used data of the BiDirect (n = 925) and the HaBIDS (n = 1007) cohort studies to estimate the effect of MDD on self-reported infections, which were assessed with identical infection susceptibility questionnaires in both studies. We used the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D) to examine if there was a dose-response relationship between depressive symptom severity and self-reported infections. RESULTS: BiDirect participants with MDD diagnosis (48%) had a higher risk of lower respiratory tract infections (incidence rate ratio 1.32, 95% confidence interval [1.00-1.75]), gastrointestinal infections (1.68 [1.30-2.16]) and fever (1.48 [1.11-1.98]) after adjusting for confounders identified by a directed acyclic graph approach. There was a dose-response relationship, i.e. individuals with higher CES-D scores reported more infections. Effect sizes were similar in HaBIDS (4% individuals with MDD). CONCLUSION: We found increased risks of mild infections in patients with MDD diagnosis and a dose-response relationship between depressive symptom severity and infection frequency. While causal immunological pathways remain unclear, the results of our study might contribute to a change in prevention strategies, e.g. by recommending vaccination against influenza and S. pneumoniae to MDD patients because observed effect sizes in our study are similar to those of patients with cardiovascular and metabolic diseases for which the respective vaccinations are recommended.

Diagnostic accuracy of cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers for the differential diagnosis of sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease: a (network) meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: There are no systematic reviews of cerebrospinal fluid and blood biomarkers for sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (sCJD) in specialized care settings that compare diagnostic accuracies in a network meta-analysis (NMA). METHODS: We searched Medline, Embase, and Cochrane Library for diagnostic studies of sCJD biomarkers. Studies had to use established diagnostic criteria for sCJD and for diseases in the non-CJD groups, which had to represent a consecutive population of patients suspected as a CJD case, as reference standard. Risk of bias was assessed with QUADAS-2. We conducted individual biomarker meta-analyses with generalized bivariate models. To investigate heterogeneity, we performed subgroup analyses based on QUADAS-2 quality and clinical criteria. For the NMA, we applied a Bayesian beta-binomial ANOVA model. The study protocol was registered at PROSPERO (CRD42019118830). RESULTS: Of 2976 publications screened, we included 16 studies, which investigated 14-3-3ß (n = 13), 14-3-3γ (n = 3), neurofilament light chain (NfL, n = 1), neuron-specific enolase (n = 1), p-tau181/t-tau ratio (n = 2), RT-QuIC (n = 7), S100B (n = 3), t-tau (n = 12), and t-tau/Aß42 ratio (n = 1). Excluded diagnostic studies had strong limitations in study design. In the NMA, RT-QuIC (0.91; 95% CI [0.83, 0.95]) and NfL (0.93 [0.78, 0.99]) were the most sensitive biomarkers for the diagnosis of definite, probable, and possible sCJD cases. RT-QuIC was the most specific biomarker (0.97 [0.89, 1.00]). Heterogeneity in accuracy estimates was high between studies. CONCLUSIONS: We identified RT-QuIC as the most accurate biomarker, partially confirming currently applied diagnostic criteria. The shortcomings identified in many diagnostic studies for sCJD biomarkers need to be addressed in future studies.

Providing laypeople with results from dynamic infectious disease modelling studies affects their allocation preference for scarce medical resources-a factorial experiment.

BACKGROUND: Allocation of scarce medical resources can be based on different principles. It has not yet been investigated which allocation schemes are preferred by medical laypeople in a particular situation of medical scarcity like an emerging infectious disease and how the choices are affected by providing information about expected population-level effects of the allocation scheme based on modelling studies. We investigated the potential benefit of strategic communication of infectious disease modelling results. METHODS: In a two-way factorial experiment (n = 878 participants), we investigated if prognosis of the disease or information about expected effects on mortality at population-level (based on dynamic infectious disease modelling studies) influenced the choice of preferred allocation schemes for prevention and treatment of an unspecified sexually transmitted infection. A qualitative analysis of the reasons for choosing specific allocation schemes supplements our results. RESULTS: Presence of the factor "information about the population-level effects of the allocation scheme" substantially increased the probability of choosing a resource allocation system that minimized overall harm among the population, while prognosis did not affect allocation choices. The main reasons for choosing an allocation scheme differed among schemes, but did not differ among those who received additional model-based information on expected population-level effects and those who did not. CONCLUSIONS: Providing information on the expected population-level effects from dynamic infectious disease modelling studies resulted in a substantially different choice of allocation schemes. This finding supports the importance of incorporating model-based information in decision-making processes and communication strategies.

Serum neurofilament light and tau as prognostic markers for all-cause mortality in the elderly general population-an analysis from the MEMO study.

BACKGROUND: Neurofilament light chain (NfL) is a cytoskeletal protein component whose release into blood is indicative of neuronal damage. Tau is a microtubule-associated protein in neurons and strongly associated with overall brain degeneration. NfL and tau levels are associated with mortality in different neurological diseases, but studies in the general population are missing. We investigated whether NfL and tau serum levels could serve as prognostic markers for overall mortality in elderly individuals without pre-defined neurological conditions. Further, we investigated the cross-sectional associations between NfL, tau, neuropsychological functioning, and brain structures. METHODS: In 1997, 385 inhabitants of Augsburg who were aged 65 years and older were included in the Memory and Morbidity in Augsburg Elderly (MEMO) study. They participated in a face-to-face medical interview including neuropsychological tests and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of the brain. NfL and tau were measured from non-fasting blood samples using highly sensitive single molecule array assays. To assess the prognostic accuracy of the biomarkers, concordance statistics based on the predicted 5-year survival probabilities were calculated for different Cox regression models. Associations between the biomarkers and the neuropsychological test scores or brain structures were investigated using linear or logistic regression. RESULTS: NfL (HR 1.27, 95% CI [1.14-1.42]) and tau (1.20 [1.07-1.35]) serum levels were independently associated with all-cause mortality. NfL, but not tau, increased the prognostic accuracy when added to a model containing sociodemographic characteristics (concordance statistic 0.684 [0.612-0.755] vs. 0.663 [0.593-0.733]), but not when added to a model containing sociodemographic characteristics and brain atrophy or neuropsychological test scores. NfL serum levels were cross-sectionally associated with neuropsychological test scores and brain structures. CONCLUSIONS: The association between NfL serum levels and brain atrophy and neuropsychological performance in individuals without overt neurological disease is similar to that seen in patients with neurodegenerative diseases. These findings support the concept of a continuum of physiological aging and incipient, subclinical pathology, and manifest disease. NfL, but not tau, serum levels might serve as a prognostic marker for all-cause mortality if no other clinical information is available.

Individual social contact data and population mobility data as early markers of SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics during the first wave in Germany-an analysis based on the COVIMOD study.

BACKGROUND: The effect of contact reduction measures on infectious disease transmission can only be assessed indirectly and with considerable delay. However, individual social contact data and population mobility data can offer near real-time proxy information. The aim of this study is to compare social contact data and population mobility data with respect to their ability to reflect transmission dynamics during the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Germany. METHODS: We quantified the change in social contact patterns derived from self-reported contact survey data collected by the German COVIMOD study from 04/2020 to 06/2020 (compared to the pre-pandemic period from previous studies) and estimated the percentage mean reduction over time. We compared these results as well as the percentage mean reduction in population mobility data (corrected for pre-pandemic mobility) with and without the introduction of scaling factors and specific weights for different types of contacts and mobility to the relative reduction in transmission dynamics measured by changes in R values provided by the German Public Health Institute. RESULTS: We observed the largest reduction in social contacts (90%, compared to pre-pandemic data) in late April corresponding to the strictest contact reduction measures. Thereafter, the reduction in contacts dropped continuously to a minimum of 73% in late June. Relative reduction of infection dynamics derived from contact survey data underestimated the one based on reported R values in the time of strictest contact reduction measures but reflected it well thereafter. Relative reduction of infection dynamics derived from mobility data overestimated the one based on reported R values considerably throughout the study. After the introduction of a scaling factor, specific weights for different types of contacts and mobility reduced the mean absolute percentage error considerably; in all analyses, estimates based on contact data reflected measured R values better than those based on mobility. CONCLUSIONS: Contact survey data reflected infection dynamics better than population mobility data, indicating that both data sources cover different dimensions of infection dynamics. The use of contact type-specific weights reduced the mean absolute percentage errors to less than 1%. Measuring the changes in mobility alone is not sufficient for understanding the changes in transmission dynamics triggered by public health measures.

Clinical evaluation of an interoperable clinical decision-support system for the detection of systemic inflammatory response syndrome in critically ill children.

BACKGROUND: Systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) is defined as a non-specific inflammatory process in the absence of infection. SIRS increases susceptibility for organ dysfunction, and frequently affects the clinical outcome of affected patients. We evaluated a knowledge-based, interoperable clinical decision-support system (CDSS) for SIRS detection on a pediatric intensive care unit (PICU). METHODS: The CDSS developed retrieves routine data, previously transformed into an interoperable format, by using model-based queries and guideline- and knowledge-based rules. We evaluated the CDSS in a prospective diagnostic study from 08/2018-03/2019. 168 patients from a pediatric intensive care unit of a tertiary university hospital, aged 0 to 18 years, were assessed for SIRS by the CDSS and by physicians during clinical routine. Sensitivity and specificity (when compared to the reference standard) with 95% Wald confidence intervals (CI) were estimated on the level of patients and patient-days. RESULTS: Sensitivity and specificity was 91.7% (95% CI 85.5-95.4%) and 54.1% (95% CI 45.4-62.5%) on patient level, and 97.5% (95% CI 95.1-98.7%) and 91.5% (95% CI 89.3-93.3%) on the level of patient-days. Physicians' SIRS recognition during clinical routine was considerably less accurate (sensitivity of 62.0% (95% CI 56.8-66.9%)/specificity of 83.3% (95% CI 80.4-85.9%)) when measurd on the level of patient-days. Evaluation revealed valuable insights for the general design of the CDSS as well as specific rule modifications. Despite a lower than expected specificity, diagnostic accuracy was higher than the one in daily routine ratings, thus, demonstrating high potentials of using our CDSS to help to detect SIRS in clinical routine. CONCLUSIONS: We successfully evaluated an interoperable CDSS for SIRS detection in PICU. Our study demonstrated the general feasibility and potentials of the implemented algorithms but also some limitations. In the next step, the CDSS will be optimized to overcome these limitations and will be evaluated in a multi-center study. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT03661450 (ClinicalTrials.gov); registered September 7, 2018.

Does Device Selection Impact Recanalization Rate and Neurological Outcome?: An Analysis of the Save ChildS Study.

Background and Purpose- The recent Save ChildS study provides multicenter evidence for the use of mechanical thrombectomy in children with large vessel occlusion arterial ischemic stroke. However, device selection for thrombectomy may influence rates of recanalization, complications, and neurological outcomes, especially in pediatric patients of different ages. We, therefore, performed additional analyses of the Save ChildS data to investigate a possible association of different thrombectomy techniques and devices with angiographic and clinical outcome parameters. Methods- The Save ChildS cohort study (January 2000-December 2018) analyzed data from 27 European and United States stroke centers and included all pediatric patients (<18 years), diagnosed with arterial ischemic stroke who underwent endovascular recanalization. Patients were grouped into first-line contact aspiration (A Direct Aspiration First Pass Technique [ADAPT]) and non-ADAPT groups as well as different stent retriever size groups. Associations with baseline characteristics, recanalization rates (modified Treatment in Cerebral Infarction), complication rates, and neurological outcome parameters (Pediatric National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale after 24 hours and 7 days; modified Rankin Scale and Pediatric Stroke Outcome Measure at discharge, after 6 and 24 months) were investigated. Results- Seventy-three patients with a median age of 11.3 years were included. Currently available stent retrievers were used in 59 patients (80.8%), of which 4×20 mm (width×length) was the most frequently chosen size (36 patients =61%). A first-line ADAPT approach was used in 7 patients (9.6%), and 7 patients (9.6%) were treated with first-generation thrombectomy devices. In this study, a first-line ADAPT approach was neither associated with the rate of successful recanalization (ADAPT 85.7% versus 87.5% No ADAPT) nor with the complication rate or the neurological outcome. Moreover, there were no associations of stent retriever sizes with rates of recanalization, complication rates, or outcome parameters. Conclusions- Our study suggests that neurological outcomes are generally good regardless of any specific device selection and suggests that it is important to offer thrombectomy in eligible children regardless of technique or device selection. Registration- URL: https://www.drks.de/; Unique identifier: DRKS00016528.

A prognostic model for overall survival in sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease.

INTRODUCTION: We developed a prognostic model for overall survival after diagnosis of sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (sCJD) using data from a German surveillance study. METHODS: We included 1226 sCJD cases (median age 66 years, range 19-89 years; 56.8% women with information on age, sex, codon 129 genotype, 14-3-3 in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), and CSF tau concentrations. The prognostic accuracy for overall survival was measured by the c statistics of multivariable Cox proportional hazard models. A score chart was derived to predict 6-month survival and median survival time. RESULTS: A model containing age, sex, codon 129 genotype, and CSF tau (with two-way interactions) was selected as the model with the highest c statistic (0.686, 95% confidence interval: 0.665-0.707) in a cross-validation approach. DISCUSSION: We developed the first prognostic model for overall survival of sCJD patients based on readily available information only. The developed score chart serves as a hands-on prediction tool for clinical practice.

Right Ventricular Index for Risk Stratification of Patients with Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension.

BACKGROUND: Right ventricular (RV) dysfunction is a major prognostic predictor in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to assess the prognostic impact of a newly developed index merging haemodynamic parameters into 1 variable. METHODS: We retrospectively assessed 2 cohorts of 248 patients (164 from Hamburg and 84 from Heidelberg) with invasively diagnosed PAH. During a median follow-up time of 3.6 years (3.1 and 4.0 years for Hamburg and Heidelberg, respectively), the composite endpoint of all-cause mortality and lung transplantation occurred in 57 patients (53 and 4 patients for Hamburg and Heidelberg, respectively). The RV index was developed in the Hamburg cohort and validated in the Heidelberg cohort: (right atrial pressure × pulmonary vascular resistance)/mixed venous oxygen saturation. RESULTS: Patients with a high RV index had a higher incidence of the combined endpoint in Kaplan-Meier analyses in the Hamburg and Heidelberg cohort (p = 0.017 and p = 0.034, respectively). The calculated RV index cut-off value was 91 and identified patients with a worse outcome in the Hamburg cohort and showed a trend in the Heidelberg cohort (p < 0.001 and p = 0.089, respectively). The RV index in Cox regression hazard models was an independent predictor of outcomes after adjustment for sex and age in both cohorts (Hamburg: hazard ratio [HR] 1.26 [95% CI 1.08, 1.47], p = 0.0027; Heidelberg: HR 2.27 [95% CI 1.46, 3.51], p < 0.001). A nomogram based on these results allowed risk stratification. CONCLUSION: Merging 3 haemodynamic variables into 1 variable, the RV index increased the prognostic power up to an independent risk factor. The RV index is easy to calculate and allows the construction of a nomogram for an individualized risk assessment.

Changes in risk perceptions during the 2014 Ebola virus disease epidemic: results of two consecutive surveys among the general population in Lower Saxony, Germany.

BACKGROUND: The Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak 2014 received extensive news media coverage, which faded out before the outbreak ended. News media coverage impacts risk perception; it is, however, unclear if the components of risk perception (affective and cognitive responses) change differently over time. METHODS: In an online panel, we asked participants (n = 1376) about EVD risk perceptions at the epidemic's peak (November 2014) and after news media coverage faded out (August 2015). We investigated worry (affective response), perceived likelihood of infection, perceived personal impact, and coping efficacy (dimensions of cognitive response), and knowledge about transmission. Differences between the surveys with respect to manifestations of affective and cognitive dimensions were tested using the Wilcoxon signed-rank test. The association between individual change in knowledge and worries about EVD in the first survey was investigated using linear regression. RESULTS: In November 2014, the survey was filled in by 974 participants. Ten months later, 662 of them were still members of the online panel and were invited to the follow-up survey. Among the 620 respondents, affective response decreased between the surveys. Knowledge about EVD also decreased; however, participants worried about EVD in 2014 had increased knowledge in 2015. Perceived likelihood of infection decreased over time, while perceived personal impact and coping efficacy did not. CONCLUSIONS: Risk communication appealing to cognitive reactions by informing clearly on the risk of infection in unaffected countries may decrease inappropriate behaviors.

Perceptions of Zika virus risk in Germany in 2016.

Background: Risks associated with Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission in the Americas have been discussed widely in the media as several European athletes declined to participate in the 2016 Summer Olympic Games. Since risk perceptions of individuals in unaffected areas are unknown, we assessed the risk perceptions of ZIKV and related behaviour in Lower Saxony, Germany, with a specific focus on pregnant women and their partners. Methods: In May 2016, we surveyed 1,037 participants aged 15-69 years of an online panel (addressing hygiene and preventive behaviour regarding infections) in Lower Saxony with respect to their risk perceptions related to ZIKV. We additionally included 26 expectant parents who were recruited at antenatal preparation courses in Braunschweig and Hannover between May and July 2016. Results: Six hundred fifty-five (69.1%) of the panel participants had ever heard about ZIKV. About 8% of the study participants reported to be concerned about ZIKV. Pregnant women had the highest odds of reporting concern about ZIKV (OR: 6.24; 95% CI: 2.94-13.26, reference: non-pregnant women). The vast majority of participants (79%) would travel to the Olympics if they won a free trip; this proportion was lower in currently pregnant women (46%). Risk perceptions towards ZIKV were considerably lower than those towards Ebola during the 2014 epidemic. Conclusion: This study showed that fear of contracting ZIKV is not a major deterrent for travelling to high-risk areas. Pregnant women are appropriately concerned about the risk of ZIKV. Studies modelling the further spread of ZIKV need to account for these results.

Development and validation of a diagnostic model for early differentiation of sepsis and non-infectious SIRS in critically ill children - a data-driven approach using machine-learning algorithms.

BACKGROUND: Since early antimicrobial therapy is mandatory in septic patients, immediate diagnosis and distinction from non-infectious SIRS is essential but hampered by the similarity of symptoms between both entities. We aimed to develop a diagnostic model for differentiation of sepsis and non-infectious SIRS in critically ill children based on routinely available parameters (baseline characteristics, clinical/laboratory parameters, technical/medical support). METHODS: This is a secondary analysis of a randomized controlled trial conducted at a German tertiary-care pediatric intensive care unit (PICU). Two hundred thirty-eight cases of non-infectious SIRS and 58 cases of sepsis (as defined by IPSCC criteria) were included. We applied a Random Forest approach to identify the best set of predictors out of 44 variables measured at the day of onset of the disease. The developed diagnostic model was validated in a temporal split-sample approach. RESULTS: A model including four clinical (length of PICU stay until onset of non-infectious SIRS/sepsis, central line, core temperature, number of non-infectious SIRS/sepsis episodes prior to diagnosis) and four laboratory parameters (interleukin-6, platelet count, procalcitonin, CRP) was identified in the training dataset. Validation in the test dataset revealed an AUC of 0.78 (95% CI: 0.70-0.87). Our model was superior to previously proposed biomarkers such as CRP, interleukin-6, procalcitonin or a combination of CRP and procalcitonin (maximum AUC = 0.63; 95% CI: 0.52-0.74). When aiming at a complete identification of sepsis cases (100%; 95% CI: 87-100%), 28% (95% CI: 20-38%) of non-infectious SIRS cases were assorted correctly. CONCLUSIONS: Our approach allows early recognition of sepsis with an accuracy superior to previously described biomarkers, and could potentially reduce antibiotic use by 30% in non-infectious SIRS cases. External validation studies are necessary to confirm the generalizability of our approach across populations and treatment practices. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov number: NCT00209768; registration date: September 21, 2005.

Discrimination of patients with type 2 myocardial infarction.

AIMS: The differentiation of type 1 and type 2 myocardial infarction (T1MI, T2MI) is important, but challenging in the emergency department. We aimed to investigate the clinical characteristics and cardiovascular outcome of T2MI patients and to develop a clinical decision tool to differentiate T1MI and T2MI patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: We prospectively enrolled 1548 patients with suspected MI. All patients were followed for up to 2 years to assess mortality. We used logistic regression with backward step-down selection to determine the most important predictors of T2MI. Based on these regression coefficients, we developed a diagnostic prediction model (score) to diagnose T2MI. T2MI was the final diagnosis of 99 patients. Patients with T2MI showed a high 1-year mortality rate (13.8%), which equals that of T1MI patients (9.4%). Female sex (Beta 1.27 [95% confidence interval; CI 0.67-1.90]), not having radiating chest pain (Beta 1.62 [CI 0.96-2.34]) and a baseline high-sensitivity troponin I concentration ≤ 40.8 ng/L (Beta 1.30 [CI 0.74-1.89]) were the strongest predictors for T2MI. Their combination resulted in an area under the curve of 0.71 to discriminate T1MI and T2MI. The binary score based on this model assigns one point to each of the predictors. Patients with the highest score value of 3 had a 72% probability of T2MI. CONCLUSION: T2MI patients are a heterogeneous population with high-cardiovascular risk. A score based on laboratory and clinical parameters might help to differentiate T1MI and T2MI patients. The additional use of this score in clinical routine needs to be investigated prospectively. TRIAL REGISTRATION: www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT02355457).

Comparison of response patterns in different survey designs: a longitudinal panel with mixed-mode and online-only design.

BACKGROUND: Increasing availability of the Internet allows using only online data collection for more epidemiological studies. We compare response patterns in a population-based health survey using two survey designs: mixed-mode (choice between paper-and-pencil and online questionnaires) and online-only design (without choice). METHODS: We used data from a longitudinal panel, the Hygiene and Behaviour Infectious Diseases Study (HaBIDS), conducted in 2014/2015 in four regions in Lower Saxony, Germany. Individuals were recruited using address-based probability sampling. In two regions, individuals could choose between paper-and-pencil and online questionnaires. In the other two regions, individuals were offered online-only participation. We compared sociodemographic characteristics of respondents who filled in all panel questionnaires between the mixed-mode group (n = 1110) and the online-only group (n = 482). Using 134 items, we performed multinomial logistic regression to compare responses between survey designs in terms of type (missing, "do not know" or valid response) and ordinal regression to compare responses in terms of content. We applied the false discovery rates (FDR) to control for multiple testing and investigated effects of adjusting for sociodemographic characteristic. For validation of the differential response patterns between mixed-mode and online-only, we compared the response patterns between paper and online mode among the respondents in the mixed-mode group in one region (n = 786). RESULTS: Respondents in the online-only group were older than those in the mixed-mode group, but both groups did not differ regarding sex or education. Type of response did not differ between the online-only and the mixed-mode group. Survey design was associated with different content of response in 18 of the 134 investigated items; which decreased to 11 after adjusting for sociodemographic variables. In the validation within the mixed-mode, only two of those were among the 11 significantly different items. The probability of observing by chance the same two or more significant differences in this setting was 22%. CONCLUSIONS: We found similar response patterns in both survey designs with only few items being answered differently, likely attributable to chance. Our study supports the equivalence of the compared survey designs and suggests that, in the studied setting, using online-only design does not cause strong distortion of the results.

Factors associated with attrition in a longitudinal online study: results from the HaBIDS panel.

BACKGROUND: Knowing about predictors of attrition in a panel is important to initiate early measures against loss of participants. We investigated attrition in both early and late phase of an online panel with special focus on preferences regarding mode of participation. METHODS: We used data from the HaBIDS panel that was designed to investigate knowledge, attitudes, and practice regarding infections in the German general population. HaBIDS was divided into two phases: an initial phase when some participants could choose their preferred mode of participation (paper-and-pencil or online) and an extended phase when participants were asked to become members of an online panel that was not limited regarding its duration (i.e. participants initially preferring paper questionnaires switched to online participation). Using competing risks regression, we investigated two types of attrition (formal withdrawal and discontinuation without withdrawal) among online participants, separately for both phases. As potential predictors of attrition, we considered sociodemographic characteristics, physical and mental health as well as auxiliary information describing the survey process, and, in the extended phase, initial mode preference. RESULTS: In the initial phase, higher age and less frequent Internet usage predicted withdrawal, while younger age, higher stress levels, delay in returning the consent form, and need for receiving reminder emails predicted discontinuation. In the extended phase, only need for receiving reminder emails predicted discontinuation. Numbers of withdrawal in the extended phase were too small for analysis. Initial mode preference did not predict attrition in the extended phase. Besides age, there was no evidence of differential attrition by sociodemographic factors in any phase. CONCLUSIONS: Predictors of attrition were similar in both phases of the panel, but they differed by type of attrition (withdrawal vs. discontinuation). Sociodemographic characteristics only played a minor role for both types of attrition. Need for receiving a reminder was the strongest predictor of discontinuation in any phase, but no predictor of withdrawal. We found predictors of attrition, which can be identified already in the early phase of a panel so that countermeasures (e.g. special incentives) can be taken.