No link between population isolation and speciation rate in squamate reptiles.

Rates of species formation vary widely across the tree of life and contribute to massive disparities in species richness among clades. This variation can emerge from differences in metapopulation-level processes that affect the rates at which lineages diverge, persist, and evolve reproductive barriers and ecological differentiation. For example, populations that evolve reproductive barriers quickly should form new species at faster rates than populations that acquire reproductive barriers more slowly. This expectation implicitly links microevolutionary processes (the evolution of populations) and macroevolutionary patterns (the profound disparity in speciation rate across taxa). Here, leveraging extensive field sampling from the Neotropical Cerrado biome in a biogeographically controlled natural experiment, we test the role of an important microevolutionary process-the propensity for population isolation-as a control on speciation rate in lizards and snakes. By quantifying population genomic structure across a set of codistributed taxa with extensive and phylogenetically independent variation in speciation rate, we show that broad-scale patterns of species formation are decoupled from demographic and genetic processes that promote the formation of population isolates. Population isolation is likely a critical stage of speciation for many taxa, but our results suggest that interspecific variability in the propensity for isolation has little influence on speciation rates. These results suggest that other stages of speciation-including the rate at which reproductive barriers evolve and the extent to which newly formed populations persist-are likely to play a larger role than population isolation in controlling speciation rate variation in squamates.

Increasing the impact of vertebrate scientific collections through 3D imaging: The openVertebrate (oVert) Thematic Collections Network.

The impact of preserved museum specimens is transforming and increasing by three-dimensional (3D) imaging that creates high-fidelity online digital specimens. Through examples from the openVertebrate (oVert) Thematic Collections Network, we describe how we created a digitization community dedicated to the shared vision of making 3D data of specimens available and the impact of these data on a broad audience of scientists, students, teachers, artists, and more. High-fidelity digital 3D models allow people from multiple communities to simultaneously access and use scientific specimens. Based on our multiyear, multi-institution project, we identify significant technological and social hurdles that remain for fully realizing the potential impact of digital 3D specimens.

Macroevolutionary thermodynamics: Temperature and the tempo of evolution in the tropics.

An influential hypothesis proposes that the tempo of evolution is faster in the tropics. Emerging evidence, including a study in this issue of PLOS Biology, challenges this view, raising new questions about the causes of Earth's iconic latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG).

Rapid increase in snake dietary diversity and complexity following the end-Cretaceous mass extinction.

The Cenozoic marked a period of dramatic ecological opportunity in Earth history due to the extinction of non-avian dinosaurs as well as to long-term physiographic changes that created new biogeographic theaters and new habitats. Snakes underwent massive ecological diversification during this period, repeatedly evolving novel dietary adaptations and prey preferences. The evolutionary tempo and mode of these trophic ecological changes remain virtually unknown, especially compared with co-radiating lineages of birds and mammals that are simultaneously predators and prey of snakes. Here, we assemble a dataset on snake diets (34,060 observations on the diets of 882 species) to investigate the history and dynamics of the multidimensional trophic niche during the global radiation of snakes. Our results show that per-lineage dietary niche breadths remained remarkably constant even as snakes diversified to occupy disparate outposts of dietary ecospace. Rapid increases in dietary diversity and complexity occurred in the early Cenozoic, and the overall rate of ecospace expansion has slowed through time, suggesting a potential response to ecological opportunity in the wake of the end-Cretaceous mass extinction. Explosive bursts of trophic innovation followed colonization of the Nearctic and Neotropical realms by a group of snakes that today comprises a majority of living snake diversity. Our results indicate that repeated transformational shifts in dietary ecology are important drivers of adaptive radiation in snakes and provide a framework for analyzing and visualizing the evolution of complex ecological phenotypes on phylogenetic trees.

A return-on-investment approach for prioritization of rigorous taxonomic research needed to inform responses to the biodiversity crisis.

Global biodiversity loss is a profound consequence of human activity. Disturbingly, biodiversity loss is greater than realized because of the unknown number of undocumented species. Conservation fundamentally relies on taxonomic recognition of species, but only a fraction of biodiversity is described. Here, we provide a new quantitative approach for prioritizing rigorous taxonomic research for conservation. We implement this approach in a highly diverse vertebrate group-Australian lizards and snakes. Of 870 species assessed, we identified 282 (32.4%) with taxonomic uncertainty, of which 17.6% likely comprise undescribed species of conservation concern. We identify 24 species in need of immediate taxonomic attention to facilitate conservation. Using a broadly applicable return-on-investment framework, we demonstrate the importance of prioritizing the fundamental work of identifying species before they are lost.

An inverse latitudinal gradient in speciation rate for marine fishes.

Far more species of organisms are found in the tropics than in temperate and polar regions, but the evolutionary and ecological causes of this pattern remain controversial1,2. Tropical marine fish communities are much more diverse than cold-water fish communities found at higher latitudes3,4, and several explanations for this latitudinal diversity gradient propose that warm reef environments serve as evolutionary 'hotspots' for species formation5-8. Here we test the relationship between latitude, species richness and speciation rate across marine fishes. We assembled a time-calibrated phylogeny of all ray-finned fishes (31,526 tips, of which 11,638 had genetic data) and used this framework to describe the spatial dynamics of speciation in the marine realm. We show that the fastest rates of speciation occur in species-poor regions outside the tropics, and that high-latitude fish lineages form new species at much faster rates than their tropical counterparts. High rates of speciation occur in geographical regions that are characterized by low surface temperatures and high endemism. Our results reject a broad class of mechanisms under which the tropics serve as an evolutionary cradle for marine fish diversity and raise new questions about why the coldest oceans on Earth are present-day hotspots of species formation.

Diversification dynamics in Caribbean rain frogs (Eleutherodactylus) are uncoupled from the anuran community and consistent with adaptive radiation.

Adaptive radiation is proposed to play a key role in generating differences in species richness among lineages and geographical regions. Due to the importance of ecological divergence in adaptive radiation, species richness is predicted to be influenced by equilibrium diversity dynamics, although the concept continues to generate much debate. An additional important question is whether radiating clades have intrinsic biological characteristics that make them particularly prone to diversify. We tackle these questions by analysing (i) the temporal patterns of diversification of Caribbean Eleutherodactylus frogs, and (ii) assembly of the complete native anuran community of the Caribbean archipelago (197 species), testing for the presence of equilibrium dynamics and whether diversification patterns of Eleutherodactylus differ from those of the rest of the Caribbean anurans. Diversification rates follow the predicted pattern of rapid diversification early in the radiation which gradually decreases towards the present. Eleutherodactylus diversification is significantly faster than that of the Caribbean anuran community, and although equilibrium dynamics influence richness of all Caribbean anurans, Eleutherodactylus shows higher carrying capacity. Our results indicate that ecological opportunity per se is not sufficient for adaptive radiation and that diverse lineages present intrinsic characteristics that enable them to make the most of available opportunity.

Notes from the taxonomic disaster zone: Evolutionary drivers of intractable species boundaries in an Australian lizard clade (Scincidae: Ctenotus).

Genomic-scale datasets, sophisticated analytical techniques, and conceptual advances have disproportionately failed to resolve species boundaries in some groups relative to others. To understand the processes that underlie taxonomic intractability, we dissect the speciation history of an Australian lizard clade that arguably represents a "worst-case" scenario for species delimitation within vertebrates: the Ctenotus inornatus species group, a clade beset with decoupled genetic and phenotypic breaks, uncertain geographic ranges, and parallelism in purportedly diagnostic morphological characters. We sampled hundreds of localities to generate a genomic perspective on population divergence, structure, and admixture. Our results revealed rampant paraphyly of nominate taxa in the group, with lineages that are either morphologically cryptic or polytypic. Isolation-by-distance patterns reflect spatially continuous differentiation among certain pairs of putative species, yet genetic and geographic distances are decoupled in other pairs. Comparisons of mitochondrial and nuclear gene trees, tests of nuclear introgression, and historical demographic modelling identified gene flow between divergent candidate species. Levels of admixture are decoupled from phylogenetic relatedness; gene flow is often higher between sympatric species than between parapatric populations of the same species. Such idiosyncratic patterns of introgression contribute to species boundaries that are fuzzy while also varying in fuzziness. Our results suggest that "taxonomic disaster zones" like the C. inornatus species group result from spatial variation in the porosity of species boundaries and the resulting patterns of genetic and phenotypic variation. This study raises questions about the origin and persistence of hybridizing species and highlights the unique insights provided by taxa that have long eluded straightforward taxonomic categorization.

Fast Likelihood Calculations for Automatic Identification of Macroevolutionary Rate Heterogeneity in Continuous and Discrete Traits.

Understanding phenotypic disparity across the tree of life requires identifying where and when evolutionary rates change on phylogeny. A primary methodological challenge in macroevolution is therefore to develop methods for accurate inference of among-lineage variation in rates of phenotypic evolution. Here, we describe a method for inferring among-lineage evolutionary rate heterogeneity in both continuous and discrete traits. The method assumes that the present-day distribution of a trait is shaped by a variable-rate process arising from a mixture of constant-rate processes and uses a single-pass tree traversal algorithm to estimate branch-specific evolutionary rates. By employing dynamic programming optimization techniques and approximate maximum likelihood estimators where appropriate, our method permits rapid exploration of the tempo and mode of phenotypic evolution. Simulations indicate that the method reconstructs rates of trait evolution with high accuracy. Application of the method to data sets on squamate reptile reproduction and turtle body size recovers patterns of rate heterogeneity identified by previous studies but with computational costs reduced by many orders of magnitude. Our results expand the set of tools available for detecting macroevolutionary rate heterogeneity and point to the utility of fast, approximate methods for studying large-scale biodiversity dynamics. [Brownian motion; continuous characters; discrete characters; macroevolution; Markov process; rate heterogeneity.].

Genetic and Ecogeographic Controls on Species Cohesion in Australia's Most Diverse Lizard Radiation.

AbstractSpecies vary extensively in geographic range size and climatic niche breadth. If range limits are primarily determined by climatic factors, species with broad climatic tolerances and those that track geographically widespread climates should have large ranges. However, large ranges might increase the probability of population fragmentation and adaptive divergence, potentially decoupling climatic niche breadth and range size. Conversely, ecological generalism in large-ranged species might lead to higher gene flow across climatic transitions, increasing species' cohesion and thus decreasing genetic isolation by distance (IBD). Focusing on Australia's iconic Ctenotus lizard radiation, we ask whether species range size scales with climatic niche breadth and the degree of population isolation. To this end, we infer independently evolving operational taxonomic units (OTUs), their geographic and climatic ranges, and the strength of IBD within OTUs based on genome-wide loci from 722 individuals spanning 75 taxa. Large-ranged OTUs were common and had broader climatic niches than small-ranged OTUs; thus, large ranges do not appear to simply result from passive tracking of widespread climatic zones. OTUs with larger ranges and broader climatic niches showed relatively weaker IBD, suggesting that large-ranged species might possess intrinsic attributes that facilitate genetic cohesion across large distances and varied climates. By influencing population divergence and persistence, traits that affect species cohesion may play a central role in large-scale patterns of diversification and species richness.

Genetic variability and the ecology of geographic range: A test of the central-marginal hypothesis in Australian scincid lizards.

For many species, both local abundance and regional occupancy are highest near the centre of their geographic distributions. One hypothesis for this pattern is that niche suitability declines with increasing distance from a species geographic centre, such that populations near range margins are characterized by reduced density and increased patchiness. In these smaller edge populations, genetic drift is more powerful, leading to the loss of genetic diversity. This simple verbal model has been formalized as the central-marginal hypothesis, which predicts that core populations should have greater genetic diversity than edge populations. Here, we tested the central-marginal hypothesis using a genomic data set of 25 species-level taxa of Australian scincid lizards in the genera Ctenotus and Lerista. A majority of taxa in our data set showed range-wide patterns of genetic variation consistent with central-marginal hypothesis, and eight of 25 taxa showed significantly greater genetic diversity in the centre of their range. We then explored biological, historical, and methodological factors that might predict which taxa support the central-marginal hypothesis. We found that taxa with the strongest evidence for range expansion were the least likely to follow predictions of the central-marginal hypothesis. The majority of these taxa had range expansions that originated at the range edge, which led to a gradient of decreasing genetic diversity from the range edge to the core, contrary to the central-marginal hypothesis.

Detecting Lineage-Specific Shifts in Diversification: A Proper Likelihood Approach.

The branching patterns of molecular phylogenies are generally assumed to contain information on rates of the underlying speciation and extinction processes. Simple birth-death models with constant, time-varying, or diversity-dependent rates have been invoked to explain these patterns. They have one assumption in common: all lineages have the same set of diversification rates at a given point in time. It seems likely, however, that there is variability in diversification rates across subclades in a phylogenetic tree. This has inspired the construction of models that allow multiple rate regimes across the phylogeny, with instantaneous shifts between these regimes. Several methods exist for calculating the likelihood of a phylogeny under a specified mapping of diversification regimes and for performing inference on the most likely diversification history that gave rise to a particular phylogenetic tree. Here, we show that the likelihood computation of these methods is not correct. We provide a new framework to compute the likelihood correctly and show, with simulations of a single shift, that the correct likelihood indeed leads to parameter estimates that are on average in much better agreement with the generating parameters than the incorrect likelihood. Moreover, we show that our corrected likelihood can be extended to multiple rate shifts in time-dependent and diversity-dependent models. We argue that identifying shifts in diversification rates is a nontrivial model selection exercise where one has to choose whether shifts in now-extinct lineages are taken into account or not. Hence, our framework also resolves the recent debate on such unobserved shifts. [Diversification; macroevolution; phylogeny; speciation].

Congruence and Conflict in the Higher-Level Phylogenetics of Squamate Reptiles: An Expanded Phylogenomic Perspective.

Genome-scale data have the potential to clarify phylogenetic relationships across the tree of life but have also revealed extensive gene tree conflict. This seeming paradox, whereby larger data sets both increase statistical confidence and uncover significant discordance, suggests that understanding sources of conflict is important for accurate reconstruction of evolutionary history. We explore this paradox in squamate reptiles, the vertebrate clade comprising lizards, snakes, and amphisbaenians. We collected an average of 5103 loci for 91 species of squamates that span higher-level diversity within the clade, which we augmented with publicly available sequences for an additional 17 taxa. Using a locus-by-locus approach, we evaluated support for alternative topologies at 17 contentious nodes in the phylogeny. We identified shared properties of conflicting loci, finding that rate and compositional heterogeneity drives discordance between gene trees and species tree and that conflicting loci rarely overlap across contentious nodes. Finally, by comparing our tests of nodal conflict to previous phylogenomic studies, we confidently resolve 9 of the 17 problematic nodes. We suggest this locus-by-locus and node-by-node approach can build consensus on which topological resolutions remain uncertain in phylogenomic studies of other contentious groups. [Anchored hybrid enrichment (AHE); gene tree conflict; molecular evolution; phylogenomic concordance; target capture; ultraconserved elements (UCE).].

Complex Ecological Phenotypes on Phylogenetic Trees: A Markov Process Model for Comparative Analysis of Multivariate Count Data.

The evolutionary dynamics of complex ecological traits-including multistate representations of diet, habitat, and behavior-remain poorly understood. Reconstructing the tempo, mode, and historical sequence of transitions involving such traits poses many challenges for comparative biologists, owing to their multidimensional nature. Continuous-time Markov chains are commonly used to model ecological niche evolution on phylogenetic trees but are limited by the assumption that taxa are monomorphic and that states are univariate categorical variables. A necessary first step in the analysis of many complex traits is therefore to categorize species into a predetermined number of univariate ecological states, but this procedure can lead to distortion and loss of information. This approach also confounds interpretation of state assignments with effects of sampling variation because it does not directly incorporate empirical observations for individual species into the statistical inference model. In this study, we develop a Dirichlet-multinomial framework to model resource use evolution on phylogenetic trees. Our approach is expressly designed to model ecological traits that are multidimensional and to account for uncertainty in state assignments of terminal taxa arising from effects of sampling variation. The method uses multivariate count data across a set of discrete resource categories sampled for individual species to simultaneously infer the number of ecological states, the proportional utilization of different resources by different states, and the phylogenetic distribution of ecological states among living species and their ancestors. The method is general and may be applied to any data expressible as a set of observational counts from different categories. [Comparative methods; Dirichlet multinomial; ecological niche evolution; macroevolution; Markov model.].

Estimating Diversification Rates on Incompletely Sampled Phylogenies: Theoretical Concerns and Practical Solutions.

Molecular phylogenies are a key source of information about the tempo and mode of species diversification. However, most empirical phylogenies do not contain representatives of all species, such that diversification rates are typically estimated from incompletely sampled data. Most researchers recognize that incomplete sampling can lead to biased rate estimates, but the statistical properties of methods for accommodating incomplete sampling remain poorly known. In this point of view, we demonstrate theoretical concerns with the widespread use of analytical sampling corrections for sparsely sampled phylogenies of higher taxonomic groups. In particular, corrections based on "sampling fractions" can lead to low statistical power to infer rate variation when it is present, depending on the likelihood function used for inference. In the extreme, the sampling fraction correction can lead to spurious patterns of diversification that are driven solely by unbalanced sampling across the tree in concert with low overall power to infer shifts. Stochastic polytomy resolution provides an alternative to sampling fraction approaches that avoids some of these biases. We show that stochastic polytomy resolvers can greatly improve the power of common analyses to estimate shifts in diversification rates. We introduce a new stochastic polytomy resolution method (Taxonomic Addition for Complete Trees [TACT]) that uses birth-death-sampling estimators across an ultrametric phylogeny to estimate branching times for unsampled taxa, with taxonomic information to compatibly place new taxa onto a backbone phylogeny. We close with practical recommendations for diversification inference under several common scenarios of incomplete sampling. [Birth-death process; diversification; incomplete sampling; phylogenetic uncertainty; rate heterogeneity; rate shifts; stochastic polytomy resolution.].

What makes a fang? Phylogenetic and ecological controls on tooth evolution in rear-fanged snakes.

BACKGROUND: Fangs are a putative key innovation that revolutionized prey capture and feeding in snakes, and - along with their associated venom phenotypes - have made snakes perhaps the most medically-significant vertebrate animals. Three snake clades are known for their forward-positioned fangs, and these clades (Elapidae, Viperidae, and Atractaspidinae) contain the majority of snakes that are traditionally considered venomous. However, many other snakes are "rear-fanged": they possess potentially venom-delivering teeth situated at the rear end of the upper jaw. Quantification of fang phenotypes - and especially those of rear-fanged species - has proved challenging or impossible owing to the small size and relative rarity of many such snakes. Consequently, it has been difficult to understand the evolutionary history of both venom and prey-capture strategies across extant snakes. We quantified variation in the dentition of 145 colubriform ("advanced") snake species using microCT scanning and compared dental characters with ecological data on species' diet and prey capture method(s) to understand broader patterns in snake fang evolution. RESULTS: Dental traits such as maxilla length, tooth number, and fang size show strong phylogenetic signal across Colubriformes. We find extreme heterogeneity and evolutionary lability in the rear-fanged phenotype in colubrid (colubrine, dipsadine, and natricine lineages) and lamprophiid snakes, in contrast to relative uniformity in the front fanged phenotypes of other groups (vipers and, to a lesser extent, elapids). Fang size and position are correlated with venom-use in vipers, elapids, and colubrid snakes, with the latter group shifting fangs anteriorly by shortening the entire maxillary bone. We find that maxilla length and tooth number may also be correlated with the evolution of dietary specialization. Finally, an ancestral state reconstruction suggests that fang loss is a recurring phenomenon in colubrid snakes, likely accompanied by shifts in diet and prey capture mode. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides a framework for quantifying the complex morphologies associated with venom use in snakes. Our results suggest that fang phenotypes, and particularly the rear-fanged phenotype, in snakes are both diverse and labile, facilitating a wide range of ecological strategies and contributing to spectacular radiations of these organisms in tropical and subtropical biomes worldwide.

Phylogenies and Diversification Rates: Variance Cannot Be Ignored.

A recent pair of articles published in the journal Evolution presented a test for assessing the validity of hierarchical macroevolutionary models. The premise of the test is to compare numerical point estimates of parameters from two levels of analysis; if the estimates differ, the hierarchical model is purportedly flawed. The articles in question apply their proposed test to BAMM, a scientific software program that uses a Bayesian mixture model to estimate rates of evolution from phylogenetic trees. The authors use BAMM to estimate rates from large phylogenies ($n > 60$ tips) and they apply the method separately to subclades within those phylogenies (median size: $n = 3$ tips); they find that point estimates of rates differ between these levels and conclude that the method is flawed, but they do not test whether the observed differences are statistically meaningful. There is no consideration of sampling variation and its impact at any level of their analysis. Here, I show that numerical differences across groups that they report are fully explained by a failure to account for sampling variation in their point estimates. Variance in evolutionary rate estimates-from BAMM and all other methods-is an inverse function of clade size; this variance is extreme for clades with five or fewer tips (e.g., 70% of clades in the focal study). The articles in question rely on negative results that are easily explained by low statistical power to reject their preferred null hypothesis, and this low power is a trivial consequence of high variance in their point estimates. I describe additional mathematical and statistical mistakes that render the proposed testing framework invalid on first principles. Evolutionary rates are no different than any other population parameters we might wish to estimate, and biologists should use the training and tools already at their disposal to avoid erroneous results that follow from the neglect of variance. [Confidence interval; diversification; estimation; null hypothesis; phylogeny; statistics; type I error].

Inferring Diversification Rate Variation From Phylogenies With Fossils.

Time-calibrated phylogenies of living species have been widely used to study the tempo and mode of species diversification. However, it is increasingly clear that inferences about species diversification-extinction rates in particular-can be unreliable in the absence of paleontological data. We introduce a general framework based on the fossilized birth-death process for studying speciation-extinction dynamics on phylogenies of extant and extinct species. The model assumes that phylogenies can be modeled as a mixture of distinct evolutionary rate regimes and that a hierarchical Poisson process governs the number of such rate regimes across a tree. We implemented the model in BAMM, a computational framework that uses reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo to simulate a posterior distribution of macroevolutionary rate regimes conditional on the branching times and topology of a phylogeny. The implementation, we describe can be applied to paleontological phylogenies, neontological phylogenies, and to phylogenies that include both extant and extinct taxa. We evaluate performance of the model on data sets simulated under a range of diversification scenarios. We find that speciation rates are reliably inferred in the absence of paleontological data. However, the inclusion of fossil observations substantially increases the accuracy of extinction rate estimates. We demonstrate that inferences are relatively robust to at least some violations of model assumptions, including heterogeneity in preservation rates and misspecification of the number of occurrences in paleontological data sets.

Positive association between population genetic differentiation and speciation rates in New World birds.

An implicit assumption of speciation biology is that population differentiation is an important stage of evolutionary diversification, but its significance as a rate-limiting control on phylogenetic speciation dynamics remains largely untested. If population differentiation within a species is related to its speciation rate over evolutionary time, the causes of differentiation could also be driving dynamics of organismal diversity across time and space. Alternatively, geographic variants might be short-lived entities with rates of formation that are unlinked to speciation rates, in which case the causes of differentiation would have only ephemeral impacts. By pairing population genetics datasets from 173 New World bird species (>17,000 individuals) with phylogenetic estimates of speciation rate, we show that the population differentiation rates within species are positively correlated with their speciation rates over long timescales. Although population differentiation rate explains relatively little of the variation in speciation rate among lineages, the positive relationship between differentiation rate and speciation rate is robust to species-delimitation schemes and to alternative measures of both rates. Population differentiation occurs at least three times faster than speciation, which suggests that most populations are ephemeral. Speciation and population differentiation rates are more tightly linked in tropical species than in temperate species, consistent with a history of more stable diversification dynamics through time in the Tropics. Overall, our results suggest that the processes responsible for population differentiation are tied to those that underlie broad-scale patterns of diversity.

Is genomic diversity a useful proxy for census population size? Evidence from a species-rich community of desert lizards.

Species abundance data are critical for testing ecological theory, but obtaining accurate empirical estimates for many taxa is challenging. Proxies for species abundance can help researchers circumvent time and cost constraints that are prohibitive for long-term sampling. Under simple demographic models, genetic diversity is expected to correlate with census size, such that genome-wide heterozygosity may provide a surrogate measure of species abundance. We tested whether nucleotide diversity is correlated with long-term estimates of abundance, occupancy and degree of ecological specialization in a diverse lizard community from arid Australia. Using targeted sequence capture, we obtained estimates of genomic diversity from 30 species of lizards, recovering an average of 5,066 loci covering 3.6 Mb of DNA sequence per individual. We compared measures of individual heterozygosity to a metric of habitat specialization to investigate whether ecological preference exerts a measurable effect on genetic diversity. We find that heterozygosity is significantly correlated with species abundance and occupancy, but not habitat specialization. Demonstrating the power of genomic sampling, the correlation between heterozygosity and abundance/occupancy emerged from considering just one or two individuals per species. However, genetic diversity does no better at predicting abundance than a single day of traditional sampling in this community. We conclude that genetic diversity is a useful proxy for regional-scale species abundance and occupancy, but a large amount of unexplained variation in heterozygosity suggests additional constraints or a failure of ecological sampling to adequately capture variation in true population size.