A predictive model for prolonged hospital length of stay in surgical burn patients.

BACKGROUND: Improvement in the care of burn patients has led to decreased mortality. Length of stay (LOS) has been used as a marker for quality of care in this population. However, the historical association of LOS as correlating only with % burn surface area (BSA) injury has been questioned with retrospective data suggesting other factors may also be associated with LOS. A model to predict prolonged LOS does not exist but could provide important information for clinicians and patients. METHODS: Data from January 2014 to December 2016 was used to develop a predictive model utilizing multivariable logistic regression. Prolonged hospital LOS was the outcome used with multiple covariates utilized to identify various associations. Odds ratios (OR) and their associated 95% confidence interval (CI) were reported for each covariate in the final regression model. Model performance in both the training and validation sets was evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) for discrimination and the Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) test for goodness-of-fit. RESULTS: A total of 441 patients was included in the final analysis, 296 (67.1%) of which were in the training set. Within the training set, the median hospital LOS was 14 days with a range of 4 to 205 days. Patient age (in decades), hypertension, total BSA, involvement of perineum, and abnormal white blood cell count were independent risk factors for prolonged hospital length of stay. When using this separate dataset, the model had an AUC of 0.81 (95% CI 0.74-0.88) and had good calibration based on the HL-test (p=0.10). CONCLUSIONS: Prolonged hospitalization following burns is predicted by patient age (in decades), TBSA, hypertension, perineal involvement, and abnormal white blood cell count.

Cranial computed tomographic findings in a large group of children with drowning: diagnostic, prognostic, and forensic implications.

OBJECTIVES: The primary aim of this study is to better define both the type and incidence of cranial computed tomography (CT) abnormalities in children following submersion injury. DESIGN: This is a retrospective chart review; patients were selected from a drowning registry that extends from January 1989 to April 2006. SETTING: Children's Hospital, San Diego. PATIENTS: Patients were included if they were admitted to the hospital with a diagnosis of drowning and had a cranial CT within 24 hrs of submersion. Of 961 patients in the registry, 156 were included. INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Eighteen percent (28 of 156) of children had an abnormal initial head CT, 82% (128 of 156) had a normal CT. Fifteen percent (24 of 156) of patients initially had a normal head CT and later had an abnormal CT. Abnormal CT findings were remarkable for diffuse loss of gray-white differentiation (75% on presentation) and bilateral basal ganglia edema/infarct (50% on presentation). There was no evidence of intra- or extra-axial blood nor were there any unilateral findings in any of the abnormal CTs. Presenting Glasgow Coma Scale was significantly lower in those who presented with an abnormal versus a normal head CT (p < 0.001). All patients with an abnormal initial CT presented with a Glasgow Coma Scale of 3, and all eventually died. Outcome was also very poor in those with a normal first CT and an abnormal second CT; 54% died and 42% remained in a persistent vegetative state. CONCLUSIONS: These data from the largest study of CT findings in pediatric drowning clearly illustrate that following submersion injury, intra- or extra-axial bleeding is not seen on cranial CT. Furthermore, an abnormal CT scan at any time was associated with a poor outcome (death or persistent vegetative state). The CT findings and the presenting Glasgow Coma Scale of patients with drowning differ from those of patients who have suffered abusive head trauma.