Rapidly assessing cobenefits to advance threat-management alliances.

Conservation strategies aimed at reducing threats to biodiversity can have significant implications for multiple sectors in a socioeconomic system, but these cobenefits are often poorly understood. For example, many of the threats to native species also impede agricultural production, yet agriculture is typically perceived as in competition with conservation objectives. Although a comprehensive, multiobjective decision analysis is usually beyond the scope and capacity of conservation decision makers, failing to incorporate key socioeconomic costs and benefits into conservation decision-making processes can result in missed opportunities for diversifying outcomes and creating cost-sharing multisectoral partnerships. We devised a straightforward and readily interpretable approach to incorporate cobenefits into a threat-management prioritization approach. We used it to analyze the agricultural cobenefits of implementing 9 invasive animal management strategies designed to ensure the persistence of 148 threatened species across Australia's Lake Eyre Basin over 50 years. A structured elicitation process with 24 participants (scientists, land managers, agriculturalists, and other stakeholders) was used to collect information on each strategy, including costs, technical and social feasibility, benefits to native threatened species, and cobenefits to agricultural production systems. The costs of targeted invasive animal management to save threatened species across the basin (AU$33 million/year) outweighed the overall benefits to the agricultural industry (estimated AU$226 million/year). The return on investment for these management strategies varied substantially when agricultural cobenefits were considered alongside threatened species benefits and showed synergies and challenges. Our approach demonstrates the value of incorporating cobenefits of conservation actions into cost-effectiveness analyses to guide potential investment and partnerships and to diversify implementation pathways.

Evaluación Rápida de los Cobeneficios para Promover Alianzas de Manejo de Amenazas Resumen Las estrategias de conservación enfocadas en la reducción de las amenazas para la biodiversidad pueden tener implicaciones importantes para muchos sectores de un sistema socioeconómico, pero existe un entendimiento reducido de estos cobeneficios. Por ejemplo, muchas de las amenazas para las especies nativas también impiden la producción agrícola y a pesar de esto, comúnmente se percibe a la agricultura como una competencia para los objetivos de conservación. Aunque un análisis completo de decisiones con objetivos múltiples está usualmente más allá del enfoque y la capacidad del órgano decisorio, no incluir costos y beneficios socioeconómicos importantes dentro del proceso de toma de decisiones puede resultar en oportunidades perdidas para la diversificación de resultados y la creación de colaboraciones multisectoriales con reparto de costes. Diseñamos una estrategia directa y de fácil interpretación para incorporar los cobeneficios dentro de una estrategia de priorización de manejo de amenazas. Usamos esta estrategia para analizar los cobeneficios agrícolas de la implementación de nueve estrategias de manejo de animales invasores diseñadas para asegurar la persistencia de 148 especies amenazadas en la cuenca del Lago Eyre en Australia durante 50 años. Usamos un proceso estructurado de extracción con 24 participantes (científicos, administradores de tierras, agricultores y otros actores) para recolectar información sobre cada estrategia, incluyendo los costos, viabilidad técnica y social, beneficios para las especies nativas amenazadas y los cobeneficios para los sistemas de producción agrícola. Los costos del manejo enfocado en animales invasores para salvar a las especies amenazadas de la cuenca (AU$33 millones al año) superaron a los beneficios generales para la industria agrícola (estimados en AU$226 millones al año). El rendimiento de la inversión para estas estrategias de manejo varió sustancialmente cuando los cobeneficios agrícolas estuvieron considerados junto con los beneficios para las especies amenazadas y mostró retos y sinergias. Nuestra estrategia demuestra la importancia de la incorporación de los cobeneficios de las acciones de conservación dentro de los análisis de rentabilidad para guiar la inversión potencial y las alianzas y para diversificar las vías de implementación.

Benefits of integrating complementarity into priority threat management.

Conservation decision tools based on cost-effectiveness analysis are used to assess threat management strategies for improving species persistence. These approaches rank alternative strategies by their benefit to cost ratio but may fail to identify the optimal sets of strategies to implement under limited budgets because they do not account for redundancies. We devised a multiobjective optimization approach in which the complementarity principle is applied to identify the sets of threat management strategies that protect the most species for any budget. We used our approach to prioritize threat management strategies for 53 species of conservation concern in the Pilbara, Australia. We followed a structured elicitation approach to collect information on the benefits and costs of implementing 17 different conservation strategies during a 3-day workshop with 49 stakeholders and experts in the biodiversity, conservation, and management of the Pilbara. We compared the performance of our complementarity priority threat management approach with a current cost-effectiveness ranking approach. A complementary set of 3 strategies: domestic herbivore management, fire management and research, and sanctuaries provided all species with >50% chance of persistence for $4.7 million/year over 20 years. Achieving the same result cost almost twice as much ($9.71 million/year) when strategies were selected by their cost-effectiveness ranks alone. Our results show that complementarity of management benefits has the potential to double the impact of priority threat management approaches.

Accelerated demand for interpersonal skills in the Australian post-pandemic labour market.

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a widespread shift to remote work, reducing the level of face-to-face interaction between workers and changing their modes and patterns of communication. This study tests whether this transformation in production processes has been associated with disruptions in the longstanding labour market trend of increasing demand for interpersonal skills. To address this question, we integrate a skills taxonomy with the text of over 12 million Australian job postings to measure skills demand trends at the aggregate and occupational levels. We find that since the start of the pandemic, there has been an acceleration in the aggregate demand for interpersonal skills. We also find a strong positive association between an occupation's propensity for remote work and the acceleration in interpersonal skills demand for the occupation. Our findings suggest that interpersonal skills continue to grow in importance for employment in the post-pandemic, remote work friendly labour market.

The effect of carbon price on low carbon innovation.

Whilst many governments have implemented carbon pricing to provide firms with a greater financial incentive to develop low carbon technologies, the effect of the carbon price on the level of low carbon innovation remains unclear. In this study we develop an empirically grounded model of firms' carbon price expectations and innovation processes. We use this model to show that a 1 USD increase in the expected future carbon price is associated with a 1.4% increase in the level of patenting in low carbon technologies, based on data for countries participating in the EU emissions trading system. We also find that firms gradually update their expectations of the future carbon price in response to recent price changes. Our findings indicate that higher carbon prices provide an effective incentive for low carbon innovation.

An algorithm for predicting job vacancies using online job postings in Australia.

Timely and accurate statistics on the labour market enable policymakers to rapidly respond to changing economic conditions. Estimates of job vacancies by national statistical agencies are highly accurate but reported infrequently and with time lags. In contrast, online job postings provide a high-frequency indicator of vacancies with less accuracy. In this study we develop a robust signal averaging algorithm to measure job vacancies using online job postings data. We apply the algorithm using data on Australian job postings and show that it accurately predicts changes in job vacancies over a 4.5-year period. We also show that the algorithm is significantly more accurate than using raw counts of job postings to predict vacancies. The algorithm therefore offers a promising approach to the timely and reliable measurement of changes in vacancies.

The invisible burden of managing COVID-19 for Australian women: Cognitive labor and public health information.

Providing accurate and timely public health information is an ongoing challenge for public health officials. The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated such challenges and presented unique difficulties in providing public health information, through the parallel rise of an "infodemic" of mis/dis-information. Understanding why individuals select, use and change their public health information seeking behaviors around COVID-19, and the relationship of these decisions relative to participant characteristics, is therefore an important step in understanding and responding to infodemics. This study used a qualitative survey (n = 255) and free-text qualitative questions to ask (1) Why participants use an information source, (2) How participants used an information source, and (3) How information seeking behavior has changed since the COVID-19 pandemic. Participants were primarily women, born in Australia, with de-facto/married relationships, without children at home, with university/college qualifications, and employed full-time or unemployed/retired. Most participants identified "easiness" and "immediacy" as reasons why they chose and used information, with sources primarily used for planning, communication, and decision making. A minority of participants changed their information seeking behavior since the COVID-19 pandemic. Those who did change, desired more immediate and accurate information. Emergent themes of care and anxiety were also noted, raising questions around the impact of mental load and cognitive labor in some female populations. Women may be suffering from increased cognitive labor and a gendering of public health information seeking behavior in the context of COVID-19. The impact of these attributes on women requires greater empirical research and consideration amongst front line practitioners and public health professionals.

Madness of the crowd: Understanding mass behaviors through a multidisciplinary lens.

Mass or crowd behaviors refer to those that occur at a group level and suggest that crowds behave differently to individuals. Mass behaviors are typically triggered by a significant societal event. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has provided many tangible examples of crowd behaviors that have been observed globally, suggesting possible common underlying drivers. It is important to provide a deeper understanding of such behaviors to develop mitigation strategies for future population-level challenges. To gain deeper insight into a variety of crowd behaviors, we perform a conceptual analysis of crowd behaviors using three detailed case studies covering observable behavior (panic buying and health protective actions) and mass beliefs (conspiracy theories) that have resulted or shifted throughout the pandemic. The aim of this review was to explored key triggers, psychological drivers, and possible mitigation strategies through a mixture of theory and published literature. Finally, we create experimental mathematical models to support each case study and to illustrate the effects of manipulating key behavioral factors. Overall, our analyses identified several commonalties across the case studies and revealed the importance of Social Identity Theory and concepts of trust, social connection, and stress.

The impact of social ties and SARS memory on the public awareness of 2019 novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak.

This study examines publicly available online search data in China to investigate the spread of public awareness of the 2019 novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak. We found that cities that had previously suffered from SARS (in 2003-04) and have greater migration ties to Wuhan had earlier, stronger and more durable public awareness of the outbreak. Our data indicate that 48 such cities developed awareness up to 19 days earlier than 255 comparable cities, giving them an opportunity to better prepare. This study suggests that it is important to consider memory of prior catastrophic events as they will influence the public response to emerging threats.

Before-after evaluation of patient length of stay in a rehabilitation context following implementation of an electronic patient journey board.

PURPOSE: To investigate whether the installation of electronic patient journey boards in an inpatient adult rehabilitation centre in Victoria, Australia, is associated with shorter lengths of stay for admitted adult rehabilitation patients. METHODS: A retrospective before-after analysis of 3 259 adult inpatient rehabilitation episodes from 2013 to 2018 was performed, analysing case-mix adjusted lengths of stay. RESULTS: A reduction in case-mix adjusted length of stay of 4.1 days per episode (95 % confidence interval: 2.0-6.4 days) was found. The corresponding reduction in hospital costs was estimated to be $3 738 per episode (95 % confidence interval $2 398-$4 983). CONCLUSIONS: Installation of electronic patient journey boards was associated with shorter lengths of stay in an inpatient adult rehabilitation centre. Additional research is needed to 1) provide further evidence of the causal effect of the boards on length of stay, and 2) investigate the mechanisms by which they reduce lengths of stay (e.g., increased currency of information, changes to procedures, remote viewing) in rehabilitation settings.

Supporting the Delivery of Total Knee Replacements Care for Both Patients and Their Clinicians With a Mobile App and Web-Based Tool: Randomized Controlled Trial Protocol.

BACKGROUND: Total knee replacement (TKR) surgeries have increased in recent years. Exercise programs and other interventions following surgery can facilitate the recovery process. With limited clinician contact time, patients with TKR have a substantial burden of self-management and limited communication with their care team, thus often fail to implement an effective rehabilitation plan. OBJECTIVE: We have developed a digital orthopedic rehabilitation platform that comprises a mobile phone app, wearable activity tracker, and clinical Web portal in order to engage patients with self-management tasks for surgical preparation and recovery, thus addressing the challenges of adherence to and completion of TKR rehabilitation. The study will determine the efficacy of the TKR platform in delivering information and assistance to patients in their preparation and recovery from TKR surgery and a Web portal for clinician care teams (ie, surgeons and physiotherapists) to remotely support and monitor patient progress. METHODS: The study will evaluate the TKR platform through a randomized controlled trial conducted at multiple sites (N=5) in a number of states in Australia with 320 patients undergoing TKR surgery; the trial will run for 13 months for each patient. Participants will be randomized to either a control group or an intervention group, both receiving usual care as provided by their hospital. The intervention group will receive the app and wearable activity tracker. Participants will be assessed at 4 different time points: 4 weeks before surgery, immediately before surgery, 12 weeks after surgery, and 52 weeks after surgery. The primary outcome measure is the Oxford Knee Score. Secondary outcome measures include quality of life (Short-Form Health Survey); depression, anxiety, and stress (Depression, Anxiety, and Stress Scales); self-motivation; self-determination; self-efficacy; and the level of satisfaction with the knee surgery and care delivery. The study will also collect quantitative usage data related to all components (app, activity tracker, and Web portal) of the TKR platform and qualitative data on the perceptions of the platform as a tool for patients, carers, and clinicians. Finally, an economic evaluation of the impact of the platform will be conducted. RESULTS: Development of the TKR platform has been completed and deployed for trial. The research protocol is approved by 2 human research ethics committees in Australia. A total of 5 hospitals in Australia (2 in New South Wales, 2 in Queensland, and 1 in South Australia) are expected to participate in the trial. CONCLUSIONS: The TKR platform is designed to provide flexibility in care delivery and increased engagement with rehabilitation services. This trial will investigate the clinical and behavioral efficacy of the app and impact of the TKR platform in terms of service satisfaction, acceptance, and economic benefits of the provision of digital services. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR) ACTRN12616000504415; https://www.anzctr.org.au/Trial/Registration/TrialReview.aspx?id=370536 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6oKES0Gp1).

Agent-based modeling in ecological economics.

Interconnected social and environmental systems are the domain of ecological economics, and models can be used to explore feedbacks and adaptations inherent in these systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM) represents autonomous entities, each with dynamic behavior and heterogeneous characteristics. Agents interact with each other and their environment, resulting in emergent outcomes at the macroscale that can be used to quantitatively analyze complex systems. ABM is contributing to research questions in ecological economics in the areas of natural resource management and land-use change, urban systems modeling, market dynamics, changes in consumer attitudes, innovation, and diffusion of technology and management practices, commons dilemmas and self-governance, and psychological aspects to human decision making and behavior change. Frontiers for ABM research in ecological economics involve advancing the empirical calibration and validation of models through mixed methods, including surveys, interviews, participatory modeling, and, notably, experimental economics to test specific decision-making hypotheses. Linking ABM with other modeling techniques at the level of emergent properties will further advance efforts to understand dynamics of social-environmental systems.

Assessment of prey overlap between a native (Polistes humilis) and an introduced (Vespula germanica) social wasp using morphology and phylogenetic analyses of 16S rDNA.

Abstract In newly invaded communities, interspecific competition is thought to play an important role in determining the success of the invader and its impact on the native community. In southern Australia, the native Polistes humilis was the predominant social wasp prior to the arrival of the exotic Vespula germanica (Hymenoptera: Vespidae). Both species forage for similar resources (water, pulp, carbohydrate and protein prey), and concerns have arisen about potential competition between them. The aim of this study was to identify the protein foods that these wasps feed on. As many prey items are masticated by these wasps to the degree that they cannot be identified using conventional means, morphological identification was complemented by sequencing fragments of the mitochondrial 16S rRNA gene. GenBank searches using blast and phylogenetic analyses were used to identify prey items to at least order level. The results were used to construct complete prey inventories for the two species. These indicate that while P. humilis is restricted to feeding on lepidopteran larvae, V. germanica collects a variety of prey of invertebrate and vertebrate origin. Calculated values of prey overlap between the two species are used to discuss the implications of V. germanica impacting on P. humilis. Results obtained are compared to those gained by solely 'conventional' methods, and the advantages of using DNA-based taxonomy in ecological studies are emphasized.