A forecasting tool for a hospital to plan inbound transfers of COVID-19 patients from other regions.

BACKGROUND: In April 2021, the province of Ontario, Canada, was at the peak of its third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Intensive Care Unit (ICU) capacity in the Toronto metropolitan area was insufficient to handle local COVID patients. As a result, some patients from the Toronto metropolitan area were transferred to other regions. METHODS: A spreadsheet-based Monte Carlo simulation tool was built to help a large tertiary hospital plan and make informed decisions about the number of transfer patients it could accept from other hospitals. The model was implemented in Microsoft Excel to enable it to be widely distributed and easily used. The model estimates the probability that each ward will be overcapacity and percentiles of utilization daily for a one-week planning horizon. RESULTS: The model was used from May 2021 to February 2022 to support decisions about the ability to accept transfers from other hospitals. The model was also used to ensure adequate inpatient bed capacity and human resources in response to various COVID-related scenarios, such as changes in hospital admission rates, managing the impact of intra-hospital outbreaks and balancing the COVID response with planned hospital activity. CONCLUSIONS: Coordination between hospitals was necessary due to the high stress on the health care system. A simple planning tool can help to understand the impact of patient transfers on capacity utilization and improve the confidence of hospital leaders when making transfer decisions. The model was also helpful in investigating other operational scenarios and may be helpful when preparing for future outbreaks or public health emergencies.

Implementing an obstetric triage acuity scale: interrater reliability and patient flow analysis.

A 5-category Obstetric Triage Acuity Scale (OTAS) was developed with a comprehensive set of obstetrical determinants. The objectives of this study were as follows: (1) to test the interrater reliability of OTAS and (2) to determine the distribution of patient acuity and flow by OTAS level. To test the interrater reliability, 110 triage charts were used to generate vignettes and the consistency of the OTAS level assigned by 8 triage nurses was measured. OTAS performed with substantial (Kappa, 0.61 - 0.77, OTAS 1-4) and near perfect correlation (0.87, OTAS 5). To assess patient flow, the times to primary and secondary health care provider assessments and lengths of stay stratified by acuity were abstracted from the patient management system. Two-thirds of triage visits were low acuity (OTAS 4, 5). There was a decrease in length of stay (median [interquartile range], minutes) as acuity decreased from OTAS 1 (120.0 [156.0] minutes) to OTAS 3 (75.0 [120.8]). The major contributor to length of stay was time to secondary health care provider assessment and this did not change with acuity. The percentage of patients admitted to the antenatal or birthing unit decreased from 80% (OTAS 1) to 12% (OTAS 5). OTAS provides a reliable assessment of acuity and its implementation has allowed for triaging of obstetric patients based on acuity, and a more in-depth assessment of the patient flow. By standardizing assessment, OTAS allows for opportunities to improve performance and make comparisons of patient care and flow across organizations.

London Transfer Project: Reducing Medication Incidents After Discharge From Hospital to Long-term Care.

BACKGROUND: Long-term care (LTC) homes expressed concern that patients had experienced medication incidents after hospital discharge as a result of poor coordination of care. OBJECTIVE: The London Transfer Project aimed to reduce LTC medication incidents by 50% within 48 hours of discharge from general medicine units at the London Health Sciences Centre. DESIGN: This quality improvement study involved 2 hospitals and 5 LTC homes in London, Ontario, Canada. The baseline prevalence of medication incidents was measured and explored for root causes. Two change ideas were tested on general medicine units to improve transfer communication: (1) expediting medication reconciliation and (2) faxing medication plans before discharge. MEASURES: Evaluation involved time-series measurement and a comparison of baseline and intervention periods. The primary outcome was medication incidents by omission or commission within 48 hours of discharge, which was determined by dual chart reviews in hospital and LTC homes. Process measures included medication reconciliation and fax completion times. Hospital discharge times were included as a balance measure of the new communication process. RESULTS: Four hundred seventy-seven LTC transfers were reviewed between 2016 and 2017; 92 transfers were reviewed for medication incidents in participating homes at baseline (January-April 2016) and implementation (January-April 2017). Medication incidents decreased significantly by 56%, from 44% (22/50) at baseline to 19% (8/42) during implementation (P = .006). Medication reconciliation completion by noon increased from 56% (28/50) to 74% (31/42) but not significantly (P = .076). Faxes sent before discharge increased significantly from 4% (2/50) to 67% (28/42, P = .015). There was no significant change in hospital discharge time. CONCLUSIONS/IMPLICATIONS: Medication incidents can be significantly reduced during care transitions by taking a systems perspective to explore quality gaps and redesign communication processes. This solution will be scaled to other inpatient services with a high proportion of LTC residents.

Paging the Right Resident the First Time on General Internal Medicine: A Quality Improvement Project.

BACKGROUND: Interprofessional hospital communication is vital for high-quality patient care. However, staff have reported that nursing pages are often sent to the wrong residents, leading to service delays, interruptions, and safety risks. The aim of this quality improvement project was to reduce day shift pages to general internal medicine (GIM) teams by 25% over 10 months by helping nurses page the right residents the first time. METHODS: This study was conducted at a Canadian tertiary academic hospital and involved three GIM teams on seven inpatient wards. The Model for Improvement was used to explore root causes and redesign how nurses and switchboard operators contacted residents. Multiple change ideas were tested: posting daily resident assignments on digital monitors, redirecting switchboard pages to internal medicine residents, and forwarding pagers in learning sessions. The primary outcome was the average number of pages/team/week to GIM residents. Evaluation was conducted with statistical process control charts and qualitative feedback. RESULTS: A total of 19,925 pages were reviewed from 226 resident shifts over 39 weeks. Average pages/team/week (Monday to Friday, 08:00 to 17:00) decreased by 38.3% (133 to 82) postimplementation. More nurses reported often or always knowing which residents were assigned to patients, increasing from 0% to 38.1%. Fewer residents reported often or always receiving pages about another resident's patient, decreasing from 50.0% to 26.7%. CONCLUSION: Quality improvement methods were used to streamline the paging process on GIM wards, resulting in fewer pages and improved communication efficiency.

Regularity and dimensional salience in temporal grouping.

How do pitch and duration accents combine to influence the perceived grouping of musical sequences? Sequence context influences the relative importance of these accents; for example, the presence of learned structure in pitch exaggerates the effect of pitch accents at the expense of duration accents despite being irrelevant to the task and not attributable to attention (Prince, 2014b). In the current study, two experiments examined whether the presence of temporal structure has the opposite effect. Experiment 1 tested baseline conditions, in which participants (N = 30) heard sequences with various sizes of either pitch or duration accents, which implied either duple or triple groupings (accent every two or three notes, respectively). Sequences either had regular temporal structure (isochronous) or not (irregular, via using random interonset intervals). Regularity enhanced the effect of duration accents but had negligible influence on pitch accents. The accent sizes that gave the most equivalent ratings across dimension and regularity levels were used in Experiment 2 (N = 33), in which sequences contained both pitch and duration accents that suggested either duple, triple, or neutral groupings. Despite controlling for the baseline effect of regularity by selecting equally effective accent sizes, regularity had additional effects on duration accents, but only for duple groupings. Regularity did not influence the effectiveness of pitch accents when combined with duration accents. These findings offer some support for a dimensional salience hypothesis, which proposes that the presence of temporal structure should foster duration accent effectiveness at the expense of pitch accents. (PsycINFO Database Record

Effects of long-term administration of high-dose recombinant human antithrombin in immunosuppressed primate recipients of porcine xenografts.

BACKGROUND: Fibrin deposition is central to the acute humoral rejection process occurring in the presence of consumptive coagulopathy when pig organs are transplanted into primates. METHODS: To assess whether strategies aimed at preventing fibrin formation may extend xenograft survival, we administered high daily doses of recombinant human antithrombin (rhAT) (500 U/kg twice daily) to obtain both anticoagulant and anti-inflammatory effects in immunosuppressed primate recipients of porcine kidneys. RESULTS: Some degree of consumptive coagulopathy developed in both rhAT-treated (n=3) and untreated (n=3) primates. No major differences in the coagulation parameters analyzed were observed between the 2 groups. Similarly, no difference in survival was seen between rhAT-treated (20.6+/-4 days; range: 15-23 days) and untreated animals (17.3+/-11.6 days; range: 7-30 days), although the rhAT-treated primates had a higher bleeding tendency. Despite the high daily dose of rhAT, considerable fibrin deposition was observed in the graft as early as 2 weeks after transplantation. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that a high daily dose of rhAT fails to influence survival or prevent fibrin formation and deposition in the graft in our pig-to-primate model. However, the potential role of rhAT administered in combination with heparins or other clotting inhibitor concentrates in this model remains to be determined.