An impact assessment tool to identify, quantify and select optimal social-economic, ecological and health outcomes of civic environmental management interventions, in Durban South Africa.

Using an environmental impact assessment (EIA) methodology, we provide a novel approach to identify and assess social-ecological outcomes from civic ecology interventions. We quantified the impact significance of six civic (community led) interventions implemented by the Wise Wayz Water Care (WWWC) local community programme (solid waste management, water quality monitoring, invasive alien plant control, crop production, recycling and community engagement), in two communities, situated in urban to peri-urban/rural environments in Durban, South Africa. Interventions resulted in 37 outcomes, of which 36 were positive and one negative. The resulting significance scores from the impact assessment allowed for interventions and their outcomes to be compared. The socio-economic outcomes were the greatest (21), followed by ecological (11) and health outcomes (6). Outcomes included access to education and training; improved quality of life; improved terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems; increase in recreation and cultural uses of natural areas; reduced health risks and increased nutrition. The most significant ecological outcomes resulted from invasive alien plant control, followed by solid waste removal and water quality monitoring. The greatest health outcomes resulted from solid waste removal and vegetable gardens, whereas the greatest social-economic outcomes resulted from the general operation of WWWC, solid waste removal, and invasive alien plant control. We demonstrate that investments in natural areas can deliver not only on enhancements in ecosystems and their services, but also for local community socio-economic and health benefits. This study provides an intervention quantifying tool for practitioners to select optimal local management interventions, that can be aligned with desired outcomes related to specific community challenges and policy requirements. In so doing, this work shows the critical role that civic interventions play to ensure sustainability, and emphasises how social-ecological systems and ecosystem services perspectives can be used in practice towards achieving sustainable outcomes.

Border control for stowaway alien species should be prioritised based on variations in establishment debt.

Border control is one of the major approaches used by countries to limit the number of organisms introduced as stowaways. However, it is not feasible to inspect all passengers, cargo and vehicles entering a country, and so efforts need to be prioritised. Here we use South Africa as a case study to assess, based on tourism and trade data and climate matching techniques, the number of stowaway species that might be introduced ('colonisation pressure') and the likelihood that once introduced, these organisms will establish ('likelihood of establishment'). These results were used to explore how the number of species that are likely to establish ('establishment debt') varies across donor regions and seasons. A simple theoretical model was then used to compare four strategies for prioritising border control inspections: no prioritisation; based on colonisation pressure; based on likelihood of establishment; and based on both colonisation pressure and likelihood of establishment. Establishment debt was greatest in southern hemisphere spring and autumn when South Africa is climatically similar to northern hemisphere countries with which there are strong, consistent trade and tourism links (i.e. colonisation pressure varied little seasonally, but likelihood of establishment did vary across the seasons). Prioritising inspections based on both colonisation pressure and the likelihood of establishment was clearly the most effective strategy, with this strategy detecting at least 6% more potential invaders than the other strategies. While there are many practical limitations to the implementation of such prioritised inspection strategies, the results highlight the importance of national and regional studies of establishment debt.

Relatedness defies biogeography: the tale of two island endemics (Acacia heterophylla and A. koa).

Despite the normally strong link between geographic proximity and relatedness of recently diverged taxa, truly puzzling biogeographic anomalies to this expectation exist in nature. Using a dated phylogeny, population genetic structure and estimates of ecological niche overlap, we tested the hypothesis that two geographically very disjunct, but morphologically very similar, island endemics (Acacia heterophylla from Réunion Island and A. koa from the Hawaiian archipelago) are the result of dispersal between these two island groups, rather than independent colonization events from Australia followed by convergent evolution. Our genetic results indicated that A. heterophylla renders A. koa paraphyletic and that the former colonized the Mascarene archipelago directly from the Hawaiian Islands ≤ 1.4 million yr ago. This colonization sequence was corroborated by similar ecological niches between the two island taxa, but not between A. melanoxylon from Australia (a sister, and presumed ancestral, taxon to A. koa and A. heterophylla) and Hawaiian A. koa. It is widely accepted that the long-distance dispersal of plants occurs more frequently than previously thought. Here, however, we document one of the most exceptional examples of such dispersal. Despite c. 18 000 km separating A. heterophylla and A. koa, these two island endemics from two different oceans probably represent a single taxon as a result of recent extreme long-distance dispersal.

Effect of land cover and ecosystem mapping on ecosystem-risk assessment in the Little Karoo, South Africa.

Extinction-risk assessments aim to identify biological diversity features threatened with extinction. Although largely developed at the species level, these assessments have recently been applied at the ecosystem level. In South Africa, national legislation provides for the listing and protection of threatened ecosystems. We assessed how land-cover mapping and the detail of ecosystem classification affected the results of risk assessments that were based on extent of habitat loss. We tested 3 ecosystem classifications and 4 land-cover data sets of the Little Karoo region, South Africa. Degraded land (in particular, overgrazed areas) was successfully mapped in just one of the land-cover data sets. From <3% to 25% of the Little Karoo was classified as threatened, depending on the land-cover data set and ecosystem classification applied. The full suite of threatened ecosystems on a fine-scale map was never completely represented within the spatial boundaries of a coarse-scale map of threatened ecosystems. Our assessments highlight the importance of land-degradation mapping for the listing of threatened ecosystems. On the basis of our results, we recommend that when budgets are constrained priority be given to generating more-detailed land-cover data sets rather than more-detailed ecosystem classifications for the assessment of threatened ecosystems.

Preserving the evolutionary potential of floras in biodiversity hotspots.

One of the biggest challenges for conservation biology is to provide conservation planners with ways to prioritize effort. Much attention has been focused on biodiversity hotspots. However, the conservation of evolutionary process is now also acknowledged as a priority in the face of global change. Phylogenetic diversity (PD) is a biodiversity index that measures the length of evolutionary pathways that connect a given set of taxa. PD therefore identifies sets of taxa that maximize the accumulation of 'feature diversity'. Recent studies, however, concluded that taxon richness is a good surrogate for PD. Here we show taxon richness to be decoupled from PD, using a biome-wide phylogenetic analysis of the flora of an undisputed biodiversity hotspot--the Cape of South Africa. We demonstrate that this decoupling has real-world importance for conservation planning. Finally, using a database of medicinal and economic plant use, we demonstrate that PD protection is the best strategy for preserving feature diversity in the Cape. We should be able to use PD to identify those key regions that maximize future options, both for the continuing evolution of life on Earth and for the benefit of society.

Protected-area boundaries as filters of plant invasions.

Human land uses surrounding protected areas provide propagules for colonization of these areas by non-native species, and corridors between protected-area networks and drainage systems of rivers provide pathways for long-distance dispersal of non-native species. Nevertheless, the influence of protected-area boundaries on colonization of protected areas by invasive non-native species is unknown. We drew on a spatially explicit data set of more than 27,000 non-native plant presence records for South Africa's Kruger National Park to examine the role of boundaries in preventing colonization of protected areas by non-native species. The number of records of non-native invasive plants declined rapidly beyond 1500 m inside the park; thus, we believe that the park boundary limited the spread of non-native plants. The number of non-native invasive plants inside the park was a function of the amount of water runoff, density of major roads, and the presence of natural vegetation outside the park. Of the types of human-induced disturbance, only the density of major roads outside the protected area significantly increased the number of non-native plant records. Our findings suggest that the probability of incursion of invasive plants into protected areas can be quantified reliably.

Establishing IUCN Red List criteria for threatened ecosystems.

The potential for conservation of individual species has been greatly advanced by the International Union for Conservation of Nature's (IUCN) development of objective, repeatable, and transparent criteria for assessing extinction risk that explicitly separate risk assessment from priority setting. At the IV World Conservation Congress in 2008, the process began to develop and implement comparable global standards for ecosystems. A working group established by the IUCN has begun formulating a system of quantitative categories and criteria, analogous to those used for species, for assigning levels of threat to ecosystems at local, regional, and global levels. A final system will require definitions of ecosystems; quantification of ecosystem status; identification of the stages of degradation and loss of ecosystems; proxy measures of risk (criteria); classification thresholds for these criteria; and standardized methods for performing assessments. The system will need to reflect the degree and rate of change in an ecosystem's extent, composition, structure, and function, and have its conceptual roots in ecological theory and empirical research. On the basis of these requirements and the hypothesis that ecosystem risk is a function of the risk of its component species, we propose a set of four criteria: recent declines in distribution or ecological function, historical total loss in distribution or ecological function, small distribution combined with decline, or very small distribution. Most work has focused on terrestrial ecosystems, but comparable thresholds and criteria for freshwater and marine ecosystems are also needed. These are the first steps in an international consultation process that will lead to a unified proposal to be presented at the next World Conservation Congress in 2012.

An operational model for mainstreaming ecosystem services for implementation.

Research on ecosystem services has grown markedly in recent years. However, few studies are embedded in a social process designed to ensure effective management of ecosystem services. Most research has focused only on biophysical and valuation assessments of putative services. As a mission-oriented discipline, ecosystem service research should be user-inspired and user-useful, which will require that researchers respond to stakeholder needs from the outset and collaborate with them in strategy development and implementation. Here we provide a pragmatic operational model for achieving the safeguarding of ecosystem services. The model comprises three phases: assessment, planning, and management. Outcomes of social, biophysical, and valuation assessments are used to identify opportunities and constraints for implementation. The latter then are transformed into user-friendly products to identify, with stakeholders, strategic objectives for implementation (the planning phase). The management phase undertakes and coordinates actions that achieve the protection of ecosystem services and ensure the flow of these services to beneficiaries. This outcome is achieved via mainstreaming, or incorporating the safeguarding of ecosystem services into the policies and practices of sectors that deal with land- and water-use planning. Management needs to be adaptive and should be institutionalized in a suite of learning organizations that are representative of the sectors that are concerned with decision-making and planning. By following the phases of our operational model, projects for safeguarding ecosystem services are likely to empower stakeholders to implement effective on-the-ground management that will achieve resilience of the corresponding social-ecological systems.

Identifying priority areas for ecosystem service management in South African grasslands.

Grasslands provide many ecosystem services required to support human well-being and are home to a diverse fauna and flora. Degradation of grasslands due to agriculture and other forms of land use threaten biodiversity and ecosystem services. Various efforts are underway around the world to stem these declines. The Grassland Programme in South Africa is one such initiative and is aimed at safeguarding both biodiversity and ecosystem services. As part of this developing programme, we identified spatial priority areas for ecosystem services, tested the effect of different target levels of ecosystem services used to identify priority areas, and evaluated whether biodiversity priority areas can be aligned with those for ecosystem services. We mapped five ecosystem services (below ground carbon storage, surface water supply, water flow regulation, soil accumulation and soil retention) and identified priority areas for individual ecosystem services and for all five services at the scale of quaternary catchments. Planning for individual ecosystem services showed that, depending on the ecosystem service of interest, between 4% and 13% of the grassland biome was required to conserve at least 40% of the soil and water services. Thirty-four percent of the biome was needed to conserve 40% of the carbon service in the grassland. Priority areas identified for five ecosystem services under three target levels (20%, 40%, 60% of the total amount) showed that between 17% and 56% of the grassland biome was needed to conserve these ecosystem services. There was moderate to high overlap between priority areas selected for ecosystem services and already-identified terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity priority areas. This level of overlap coupled with low irreplaceability values obtained when planning for individual ecosystem services makes it possible to combine biodiversity and ecosystem services in one plan using systematic conservation planning.

Civic Ecology Uplifts Low-Income Communities, Improves Ecosystem Services and Well-Being, and Strengthens Social Cohesion.

Ecosystem services enhance well-being and the livelihoods of disadvantaged communities. Civic ecology can enhance social-ecological systems; however, their contributions to ecosystem services are rarely measured. We analysed the outcomes of civic ecology interventions undertaken in Durban, South Africa, as part of the Wise Wayz Water Care programme (the case study). Using mixed methods (household and beneficiary (community members implementing interventions) surveys, interviews, field observations, and workshops), we identified ecosystem service use and values, as well as the benefits of six interventions (solid waste management and removal from aquatic and terrestrial areas, recycling, invasive alien plant control, river water quality monitoring, vegetable production, and community engagement). Ecosystem services were widely used for agriculture, subsistence, and cultural uses. River water was used for crop irrigation, livestock, and recreation. Respondents noted numerous improvements to natural habitats: decrease in invasive alien plants, less pollution, improved condition of wetlands, and increased production of diverse vegetables. Improved habitats were linked to enhanced ecosystem services: clean water, agricultural production, harvesting of wood, and increased cultural and spiritual activities. Key social benefits were increased social cohesion, education, and new business opportunities. We highlight that local communities can leverage natural capital for well-being and encourage policy support of civic ecology initiatives.

Evaluating private land conservation in the Cape Lowlands, South Africa.

Evaluation is important for judiciously allocating limited conservation resources and for improving conservation success through learning and strategy adjustment. We evaluated the application of systematic conservation planning goals and conservation gains from incentive-based stewardship interventions on private land in the Cape Lowlands and Cape Floristic Region, South Africa. We collected spatial and nonspatial data (2003-2007) to determine the number of hectares of vegetation protected through voluntary contractual and legally nonbinding (informal) agreements with landowners; resources spent on these interventions; contribution of the agreements to 5- and 20-year conservation goals for representation and persistence in the Cape Lowlands of species and ecosystems; and time and staff required to meet these goals. Conservation gains on private lands across the Cape Floristic Region were relatively high. In 5 years, 22,078 ha (27,800 ha of land) and 46,526 ha (90,000 ha of land) of native vegetation were protected through contracts and informal agreements, respectively. Informal agreements often were opportunity driven and cheaper and faster to execute than contracts. All contractual agreements in the Cape Lowlands were within areas of high conservation priority (identified through systematic conservation planning), which demonstrated the conservation plan's practical application and a high level of overlap between resource investment (approximately R1.14 million/year in the lowlands) and priority conservation areas. Nevertheless, conservation agreements met only 11% of 5-year and 9% of 20-year conservation goals for Cape Lowlands and have made only a moderate contribution to regional persistence of flora to date. Meeting the plan's conservation goals will take three to five times longer and many more staff members to maintain agreements than initially envisaged.

Safeguarding biodiversity and ecosystem services in the Little Karoo, South Africa.

Global declines in biodiversity and the widespread degradation of ecosystem services have led to urgent calls to safeguard both. Responses to this urgency include calls to integrate the needs of ecosystem services and biodiversity into the design of conservation interventions. The benefits of such integration are purported to include improvements in the justification and resources available for these interventions. Nevertheless, additional costs and potential trade-offs remain poorly understood in the design of interventions that seek to conserve biodiversity and ecosystem services. We sought to investigate the synergies and trade-offs in safeguarding ecosystem services and biodiversity in South Africa's Little Karoo. We used data on three ecosystem services--carbon storage, water recharge, and fodder provision--and data on biodiversity to examine several conservation planning scenarios. First, we investigated the amount of each ecosystem service captured incidentally by a conservation plan to meet targets for biodiversity only while minimizing opportunity costs. We then examined the costs of adding targets for ecosystem services into this conservation plan. Finally, we explored trade-offs between biodiversity and ecosystem service targets at a fixed cost. At least 30% of each ecosystem service was captured incidentally when all of biodiversity targets were met. By including data on ecosystem services, we increased the amount of services captured by at least 20% for all three services without additional costs. When biodiversity targets were reduced by 8%, an extra 40% of fodder provision and water recharge were obtained and 58% of carbon could be captured for the same cost. The opportunity cost (in terms of forgone production) of safeguarding 100% of the biodiversity targets was about US$500 million. Our results showed that with a small decrease in biodiversity target achievement, substantial gains for the conservation of ecosystem services can be achieved within our biodiversity priority areas for no extra cost.

Mapping grazing-induced degradation in a semi-arid environment: a rapid and cost effective approach for assessment and monitoring.

Improved techniques for measuring and monitoring the state of biodiversity are required for reporting on national obligations to international and regional conservation institutions. Measuring the extent of grazing-related degradation in semi-arid ecosystems has proved difficult. Here we present an accurate and cost-effective method for doing this, and apply it in a South African semi-arid region that forms part of a globally significant biodiversity hotspot. We grouped structurally and functionally similar vegetation units, which were expert-mapped at the 1:50,000 scale, into four habitat types, and developed habitat-specific degradation models. We quantified degradation into three categories, using differences between dry and wet season values of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for the three succulent karoo habitats, and the difference between maximum and mean NDVI values for the subtropical thicket habitat. Field evaluation revealed an accuracy of 86%. Overall, degradation was high: 24% of the study area was modeled as severely degraded, and only 9% as intact. Levels of degradation were highest for bottomland habitats that were most exposed to grazing impacts. In sharp contrast to our methods, a widely used, broad-scale and snapshot assessment of land cover in South Africa was only 33% accurate, and it considerably underestimated the extent of severely degraded habitat in the study area. While our approach requires a multidisciplinary team, and in particular expert knowledge on the characteristics and spatial delimitation of vegetation types, it is repeatable, rapid, and relatively inexpensive. Consequently, it holds great promise for monitoring and evaluation programs in semi-arid ecosystems, in Africa, and beyond.

Knowing but not doing: selecting priority conservation areas and the research-implementation gap.

Conservation assessment is a rapidly evolving discipline whose stated goal is the design of networks of protected areas that represent and ensure the persistence of nature (i.e., species, habitats, and environmental processes) by separating priority areas from the activities that degrade or destroy them. Nevertheless, despite a burgeoning scientific literature that ever refines these techniques for allocating conservation resources, it is widely believed that conservation assessments are rarely translated into actions that actually conserve nature. We reviewed the conservation assessment literature in peer-reviewed journals and conducted survey questionnaires of the authors of these studies. Two-thirds of conservation assessments published in the peer-reviewed scientific literature do not deliver conservation action, primarily because most researchers never plan for implementation. This research-implementation gap between conservation science and real-world action is a genuine phenomenon and is a specific example of the "knowing-doing gap" that is widely recognized in management science. Given the woefully inadequate resources allocated for conservation, our findings raise questions over the utility of conservation assessment science, as currently practiced, to provide useful, pragmatic solutions to conservation planning problems. A reevaluation of the conceptual and operational basis of conservation planning research is urgently required. We recommend the following actions for beginning a process for bridging the research-implementation gap in conservation planning: (1) acknowledge the research-implementation gap is real, (2) source research questions from practitioners, (3) situate research within a broader conservation planning model, (4) expand the social dimension of conservation assessments, (5) support conservation plans with transdisciplinary social learning institutions, (6) reward academics for societal engagement and implementation, and (7) train students in skills for "doing" conservation.

Spatial analyses of threats to ecosystem service hotspots in Greater Durban, South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Population growth at all scales and rapid rates of urbanization, particularly in the global South, are placing increasing pressure on ecosystems and their ability to provide services essential for human well-being. The spatial consideration of threats to ecosystem services related to changes in land use is necessary in order to avoid undue impacts on society due to the loss or reduced supply of ecosystem services. This study assesses the potential threats of land use change from strategic and local development proposals to ecosystem services in the city of Durban. METHODS: We analysed the spatial relationship between five categories of ecosystem service hotspots (carbon storage, water yield, sediment retention, nutrient retention and flood attenuation) and urban land use change related to selected strategic planning proposals, development proposals and sand-mining applications in Durban, South Africa (eThekwini Municipality) with a view to determining the consequences for progress towards a more sustainable development path in the city. We identified the potential levels of threat related to habitat destruction or transformation for the five categories of ecosystem services and a subset of 13 ecosystem service hotspots, using GIS spatial analysis tools. RESULTS: The results show that on average, should Durban's strategic development plans be realised, approximately 42% loss of ecosystem service hotspots is expected in the two municipal town-planning regions assessed. With respect to development applications between 2009 and 2012, approximately 36% of all environmental impact assessments and 84% of sand mining applications occurred within ecosystem service hotspots within Durban. DISCUSSION: The findings highlight the tension between short-term development pressures and longer-term sustainability goals and confirm that current planning and development proposals pose a threat to ecosystems and their ability to deliver services that support human well-being in Durban. We suggest practical solutions to include ecosystem services into local government decision-making.

Assessing the role of dispersed floral resources for managed bees in providing supporting ecosystem services for crop pollination.

Most pollination ecosystem services studies have focussed on wild pollinators and their dependence on natural floral resources adjacent to crop fields. However, managed pollinators depend on a mixture of floral resources that are spatially separated from the crop field. Here, we consider the supporting role these resources play as an ecosystem services provider to quantify the use and availability of floral resources, and to estimate their relative contribution to support pollination services of managed honeybees. Beekeepers supplying pollination services to the Western Cape deciduous fruit industry were interviewed to obtain information on their use of floral resources. For 120 apiary sites, we also analysed floral resources within a two km radius of each site based on geographic data. The relative availability of floral resources at sites was compared to regional availability. The relative contribution of floral resources-types to sustain managed honeybees was estimated. Beekeepers showed a strong preference for eucalypts and canola. Beekeepers selectively placed more hives at sites with eucalypt and canola and less with natural vegetation. However, at the landscape-scale, eucalypt was the least available resource, whereas natural vegetation was most common. Based on analysis of apiary sites, we estimated that 700,818 ha of natural vegetation, 73,910 ha of canola fields, and 10,485 ha of eucalypt are used to support the managed honeybee industry in the Western Cape. Whereas the Cape managed honeybee system uses a bee native to the region, alien plant species appear disproportionately important among the floral resources being exploited. We suggest that an integrated approach, including evidence from interview and landscape data, and fine-scale biological data is needed to study floral resources supporting managed honeybees.

Prioritising surveillance for alien organisms transported as stowaways on ships travelling to South Africa.

The global shipping network facilitates the transportation and introduction of marine and terrestrial organisms to regions where they are not native, and some of these organisms become invasive. South Africa was used as a case study to evaluate the potential for shipping to contribute to the introduction and establishment of marine and terrestrial alien species (i.e. establishment debt) and to assess how this varies across shipping routes and seasons. As a proxy for the number of species introduced (i.e. 'colonisation pressure') shipping movement data were used to determine, for each season, the number of ships that visited South African ports from foreign ports and the number of days travelled between ports. Seasonal marine and terrestrial environmental similarity between South African and foreign ports was then used to estimate the likelihood that introduced species would establish. These data were used to determine the seasonal relative contribution of shipping routes to South Africa's marine and terrestrial establishment debt. Additionally, distribution data were used to identify marine and terrestrial species that are known to be invasive elsewhere and which might be introduced to each South African port through shipping routes that have a high relative contribution to establishment debt. Shipping routes from Asian ports, especially Singapore, have a particularly high relative contribution to South Africa's establishment debt, while among South African ports, Durban has the highest risk of being invaded. There was seasonal variation in the shipping routes that have a high relative contribution to the establishment debt of the South African ports. The presented method provides a simple way to prioritise surveillance effort and our results indicate that, for South Africa, port-specific prevention strategies should be developed, a large portion of the available resources should be allocated to Durban, and seasonal variations and their consequences for prevention strategies should be explored further.

Interactions between environment, species traits, and human uses describe patterns of plant invasions.

Although invasive alien species (IAS) are a major threat to biodiversity, human health, and economy, our understanding of the factors controlling their distribution and abundance is limited. Here, we determine how environmental factors, land use, life-history traits of the invaders, residence time, origin, and human usage interact to shape the spatial pattern of invasive alien plant species in South Africa. Relationships between the environmental factors and the extrinsic and intrinsic attributes of species were investigated using RLQ analysis, a multivariate method for relating a species-attribute table to an environmental table by way of a species presence/absence table. We then clustered species according to their position on the RLQ axes, and tested these groups for phylogenetic independence. The first three axes of the RLQ explained 99% of the variation and were strongly related to the species attributes. The clustering showed that, after accounting for environmental factors, the spatial pattern of IAS in South Africa was driven by human uses, life forms, and reproductive traits. The seven clusters of species strongly reflected geographical distribution, but also intrinsic species attributes and patterns of human use. Two of the clusters, centered on the genera Acacia and Opuntia, were phylogenetically non-independent. The remaining clusters comprised species of diverse taxonomic affinities, but sharing traits facilitating invasion in particular habitats. This information is useful for assessing the extent to which the potential spread of recent introductions can be predicted by considering the interaction of their biological attributes, region of origin, and human use.

Niche-based modelling as a tool for predicting the risk of alien plant invasions at a global scale.

Predicting the probability of successful establishment of plant species by matching climatic variables has considerable potential for incorporation in early warning systems for the management of biological invasions. We select South Africa as a model source area of invasions worldwide because it is an important exporter of plant species to other parts of the world because of the huge international demand for indigenous flora from this biodiversity hotspot. We first mapped the five ecoregions that occur both in South Africa and other parts of the world, but the very coarse definition of the ecoregions led to unreliable results in terms of predicting invasible areas. We then determined the bioclimatic features of South Africa's major terrestrial biomes and projected the potential distribution of analogous areas throughout the world. This approach is much more powerful, but depends strongly on how particular biomes are defined in donor countries. Finally, we developed bioclimatic niche models for 96 plant taxa (species and subspecies) endemic to South Africa and invasive elsewhere, and projected these globally after successfully evaluating model projections specifically for three well-known invasive species (Carpobrotus edulis, Senecio glastifolius, Vellereophyton dealbatum) in different target areas. Cumulative probabilities of climatic suitability show that high-risk regions are spatially limited globally but that these closely match hotspots of plant biodiversity. These probabilities are significantly correlated with the number of recorded invasive species from South Africa in natural areas, emphasizing the pivotal role of climate in defining invasion potential. Accounting for potential transfer vectors (trade and tourism) significantly adds to the explanatory power of climate suitability as an index of invasibility. The close match that we found between the climatic component of the ecological habitat suitability and the current pattern of occurrence of South Africa alien species in other parts of the world is encouraging. If species' distribution data in the donor country are available, climatic niche modelling offers a powerful tool for efficient and unbiased first-step screening. Given that eradication of an established invasive species is extremely difficult and expensive, areas identified as potential new sites should be monitored and quarantine measures should be adopted.

Predicting incursion of plant invaders into Kruger National Park, South Africa: the interplay of general drivers and species-specific factors.

BACKGROUND: Overcoming boundaries is crucial for incursion of alien plant species and their successful naturalization and invasion within protected areas. Previous work showed that in Kruger National Park, South Africa, this process can be quantified and that factors determining the incursion of invasive species can be identified and predicted confidently. Here we explore the similarity between determinants of incursions identified by the general model based on a multispecies assemblage, and those identified by species-specific models. We analyzed the presence and absence of six invasive plant species in 1.0×1.5 km segments along the border of the park as a function of environmental characteristics from outside and inside the KNP boundary, using two data-mining techniques: classification trees and random forests. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The occurrence of Ageratum houstonianum, Chromolaena odorata, Xanthium strumarium, Argemone ochroleuca, Opuntia stricta and Lantana camara can be reliably predicted based on landscape characteristics identified by the general multispecies model, namely water runoff from surrounding watersheds and road density in a 10 km radius. The presence of main rivers and species-specific combinations of vegetation types are reliable predictors from inside the park. CONCLUSIONS: The predictors from the outside and inside of the park are complementary, and are approximately equally reliable for explaining the presence/absence of current invaders; those from the inside are, however, more reliable for predicting future invasions. Landscape characteristics determined as crucial predictors from outside the KNP serve as guidelines for management to enact proactive interventions to manipulate landscape features near the KNP to prevent further incursions. Predictors from the inside the KNP can be used reliably to identify high-risk areas to improve the cost-effectiveness of management, to locate invasive plants and target them for eradication.