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BACKGROUND: The Gambia has successfully reduced malaria transmission. The human reservoir of infection could further decrease if malaria-infected individuals could be identified by highly sensitive, field-based, diagnostic tools and then treated. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was done at the peak of the 2017 malaria season in 47 Gambian villages. From each village, 100 residents were randomly selected for finger-prick blood samples to detect Plasmodium falciparum infections using highly sensitive rapid diagnostic tests (HS-RDT) and PCR. The sensitivity and specificity of the HS-RDT were estimated (assuming PCR as the gold standard) across varying transmission intensities and in different age groups. A deterministic, age-structured, dynamic model of malaria transmission was used to estimate the impact of mass testing and treatment (MTAT) with HS-RDT in four different scenarios of malaria prevalence by PCR: 5, 15, 30, and 60%, and with seasonal transmission. The impact was compared both to MTAT with conventional RDT and mass drug administration (MDA). RESULTS: Malaria prevalence by HS-RDT was 15% (570/3798; 95% CI 13.9-16.1). The HS-RDT sensitivity and specificity were 38.4% (191/497, 95% CI 34.2-42.71) and 88.5% (2922/3301; 95% CI 87.4-89.6), respectively. Sensitivity was the highest (50.9%, 95% CI 43.3-58.5%) in high prevalence villages (20-50% by PCR). The model predicted that in very low transmission areas (≤ 5%), three monthly rounds of MTAT with HS-RDT, starting towards the end of the dry season and testing 65 or 85% of the population for 2 consecutive years, would avert 62 or 78% of malaria cases (over 2 years), respectively. The effect of the intervention would be lower in a moderate transmission setting. In all settings, MDA would be superior to MTAT with HS-RDT which would be superior to MTAT with conventional RDT. CONCLUSION: The HS-RDT's field sensitivity was modest and varied by transmission intensity. In low to very low transmission areas, three monthly rounds per year of MTAT with HS-RDT at 85% coverage for 2 consecutive years would reduce malaria prevalence to such low levels that additional strategies may achieve elimination. The model prediction would need to be confirmed by cluster-randomized trials.
Assuntos
Testes Diagnósticos de Rotina/métodos , Malária Falciparum/diagnóstico , Plasmodium falciparum/isolamento & purificação , Reação em Cadeia da Polimerase/métodos , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Estudos Transversais , Feminino , Gâmbia/epidemiologia , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Malária Falciparum/epidemiologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Prevalência , Sensibilidade e Especificidade , Adulto JovemRESUMO
Background: In many countries, non-pharmaceutical interventions to limit severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission resulted in significant reductions in other respiratory viruses. However, similar data from Africa are limited. We explored the extent to which viruses such as influenza and rhinovirus co-circulated with SARS-CoV-2 in The Gambia during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: Between April 2020 and March 2022, respiratory viruses were detected using RT-PCR in nasopharyngeal swabs from 1397 participants with influenza-like illness. An assay to detect SARS-CoV-2 and a viral multiplex RT-PCR assay was used as previously described to detect influenza A and B, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) A and B, parainfluenza viruses 1-4, human metapneumovirus (HMPV), adenovirus, seasonal coronaviruses (229E, OC43, NL63) and human rhinovirus. Results: Overall virus positivity was 44.2%, with prevalence higher in children <5 years (80%) compared to children aged 5-17 years (53.1%), adults aged 18-50 (39.5%) and >50 years (39.9%), p<0.0001. After SARS-CoV-2 (18.3%), rhinoviruses (10.5%) and influenza viruses (5.5%) were the most prevalent. SARS-CoV-2 positivity was lower in children <5 (4.3%) and 5-17 years (12.7%) than in adults aged 18-50 (19.3%) and >50 years (24.3%), p<0.0001. In contrast, rhinoviruses were most prevalent in children <5 years (28.7%), followed by children aged 5-17 (15.8%), adults aged 18-50 (8.3%) and >50 years (6.3%), p<0.0001. Four SARS-CoV-2 waves occurred, with 36.1%-52.4% SARS-CoV-2 positivity during peak months. Influenza infections were observed in both 2020 and 2021 during the rainy season as expected (peak positivity 16.4%-23.5%). Peaks of rhinovirus were asynchronous to the months when SARS-CoV-2 and influenza peaked. Conclusion: Our data show that many respiratory viruses continued to circulate during the COVID-19 pandemic in The Gambia, including human rhinoviruses, despite the presence of NPIs during the early stages of the pandemic, and influenza peaks during expected months.
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BACKGROUND: Our study aimed to identify a host cytokine biosignature that could distinguish childhood tuberculosis (TB) from other respiratory diseases (OD). METHODS: Cytokine responses in prospectively recruited children with symptoms suggestive of TB were measured in whole blood assay supernatants, harvested after overnight incubation, using a Luminex platform. We used logistic regression models with Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) penalty to identify the optimal biosignature associated with confirmed TB disease in the training set. We subsequently assessed its performance in the test set. FINDINGS: Of the 431 children included in the study, 44 had bacteriologically confirmed TB, 60 had clinically diagnosed TB while 327 had OD. All children were HIV-negative. Application of LASSO regression models to the training set (n = 260) resulted in the combination of IL-1ra, IL-7 and IP-10 from unstimulated samples as the optimally discriminant cytokine biosignature associated with bacteriologically confirmed TB. In the test set (n = 171), this biosignature distinguished children diagnosed with TB disease, irrespective of microbiological confirmation, from OD with area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) of 0â¢74 (95% CI: 0â¢67, 0â¢81), and demonstrated sensitivity and specificity of 72â¢2% (95% CI: 60â¢4, 82â¢1%) and 75â¢0% (95% CI: 64â¢9, 83â¢4%) respectively, with its performance independent of their age group and their age- and sex-adjusted nutritional status. INTERPRETATION: This novel biosignature of childhood TB derived from unstimulated supernatants is promising. Independent validation with further optimisation will improve its performance and translational potential. FUNDING: Steinberg Fellowship (McGill University); Grand Challenges Canada; MRC Program Grant.