Percentiles of predicted 10-year cardiovascular disease risk by sex and age in Brazil and their association with estimated risk of long-term atherosclerotic events.

OBJECTIVE: Expressing the cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in relation to peers may complement the estimation of absolute CVD risk. We aimed to determine 10-year CVD risk percentiles by sex and age in the Brazilian population and evaluate their association with estimated long-term atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) risk. METHODS: A cross-sectional analysis of baseline data from the ELSA-Brasil study was conducted in individuals aged 40-74 years without prior ASCVD. Ten-year CVD risk and long-term ASCVD risk were estimated by the WHO risk score and the Multinational Cardiovascular Risk Consortium tool, respectively. Ten-year risk percentiles were determined by ranking the calculated risks within each sex and age group. RESULTS: Ten-year CVD risk versus percentile plots were constructed for each sex and age group using data from 13,364 participants (55% females; median age, 52 [IQR, 46-59] years). Long-term ASCVD risk was calculated in 12,973 (97.1%) participants. Compared to individuals at the <25th risk percentile, those at the ≥75th percentile had a greater risk of being in the highest quartile of long-term risk (ORs [95% CIs] 6.57 [5.18-8.30] in females and 11.59 [8.42-15.96] in males) in regression models adjusted for age, race, education, and 10-year CVD risk. In both sexes, the association between risk percentile and long-term risk weakened after age 50. A tool for calculating 10-year CVD risk and the corresponding percentile is available at https://bit.ly/3CzPUi6. CONCLUSIONS: We established percentiles of predicted 10-year CVD risk by sex and age in the Brazilian population, which independently reflect the estimated long-term ASCVD risk in younger individuals.

Carotid intima-media thickness in adults with and without psoriasis - a nested case-control study from baseline data of ELSA-Brasil cohort.

There is a lack of consensus about the association between psoriasis (PSO) and carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) in literature, since previous studies considered dermatologic clinic patients or general population. This study aimed to compare cIMT levels according to PSO in a sample of 10,530 civil servants form the ELSA-Brasil cohort study and analyze its association with the disease. The PSO cases and disease duration were identified by medical diagnosis self-reported at study enrollment. A paired group was identified by propensity score matching among all the participants without PSO. Mean cIMT values were considered for continuous analysis while cIMT above 75th percentile was considered for categorical analysis. Multivariate conditional regression models were used to analyze association between cIMT and PSO diagnosis, by comparing PSO cases against paired controls and overall sample without disease. A total of n = 162 PSO cases were identified (1.54%) and no difference in cIMT values was observed between participants with PSO and overall sample or control group. PSO was not associated with linear increment of cIMT (vs. overall sample: ß = 0.003, p = 0.690; vs. matched controls: ß = 0.004, p = 0.633) neither with increased chance of having cIMT above 75th percentile (vs. overall sample: OR = 1.06, p = 0.777; vs. matched controls: OR = 1.19, p = 0.432; conditional regression: OR = 1.31, p = 0.254). There was no relationship between disease duration and cIMT (ß = 0.000, p = 0.627). Although no significant relationship between mild cases of psoriasis and cIMT was observed among a wide cohort of civil servants, longitudinal investigation about cIMT progression and severity of disease are still needed.

Chronic inflammatory diseases, subclinical atherosclerosis, and cardiovascular diseases: Design, objectives, and baseline characteristics of a prospective case-cohort study ‒ ELSA-Brasil.

OBJECTIVES: This analysis describes the protocol of a study with a case-cohort to design to prospectively evaluate the incidence of subclinical atherosclerosis and Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) in Chronic Inflammatory Disease (CID) participants compared to non-diseased ones. METHODS: A high-risk group for CID was defined based on data collected in all visits on self-reported medical diagnosis, use of medicines, and levels of high-sensitivity C-Reactive Protein >10 mg/L. The comparison group is the Aleatory Cohort Sample (ACS): a group with 10% of participants selected at baseline who represent the entire cohort. In both groups, specific biomarkers for DIC, markers of subclinical atherosclerosis, and CVD morbimortality will be tested using weighted Cox. RESULTS: The high-risk group (n = 2,949; aged 53.6 ± 9.2; 65.5% women) and the ACS (n=1543; 52.2±8.8; 54.1% women) were identified. Beyond being older and mostly women, participants in the high-risk group present low average income (29.1% vs. 24.8%, p < 0.0001), higher BMI (Kg/m2) (28.1 vs. 26.9, p < 0.0001), higher waist circumference (cm) (93.3 vs. 91, p < 0.0001), higher frequencies of hypertension (40.2% vs. 34.5%, p < 0.0001), diabetes (20.7% vs. 17%, p = 0.003) depression (5.8% vs. 3.9%, p = 0.007) and higher levels of GlycA a new inflammatory marker (p < 0.0001) compared to the ACS. CONCLUSIONS: The high-risk group selected mostly women, older, lower-income/education, higher BMI, waist circumference, and of hypertension, diabetes, depression, and higher levels of GlycA when compared to the ACS. The strategy chosen to define the high-risk group seems adequate given that multiple sociodemographic and clinical characteristics are compatible with CID.

Chronic inflammatory diseases, subclinical atherosclerosis, and cardiovascular diseases: Design, objectives, and baseline characteristics of a prospective case-cohort study ‒ ELSA-Brasil

Abstract Objectives This analysis describes the protocol of a study with a case-cohort to design to prospectively evaluate the incidence of subclinical atherosclerosis and Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) in Chronic Inflammatory Disease (CID) participants compared to non-diseased ones. Methods A high-risk group for CID was defined based on data collected in all visits on self-reported medical diagnosis, use of medicines, and levels of high-sensitivity C-Reactive Protein >10 mg/L. The comparison group is the Aleatory Cohort Sample (ACS): a group with 10% of participants selected at baseline who represent the entire cohort. In both groups, specific biomarkers for DIC, markers of subclinical atherosclerosis, and CVD morbimortality will be tested using weighted Cox. Results The high-risk group (n = 2,949; aged 53.6 ± 9.2; 65.5% women) and the ACS (n=1543; 52.2±8.8; 54.1% women) were identified. Beyond being older and mostly women, participants in the high-risk group present low average income (29.1% vs. 24.8%, p < 0.0001), higher BMI (Kg/m2) (28.1 vs. 26.9, p < 0.0001), higher waist circumference (cm) (93.3 vs. 91, p < 0.0001), higher frequencies of hypertension (40.2% vs. 34.5%, p < 0.0001), diabetes (20.7% vs. 17%, p = 0.003) depression (5.8% vs. 3.9%, p = 0.007) and higher levels of GlycA a new inflammatory marker (p < 0.0001) compared to the ACS. Conclusions The high-risk group selected mostly women, older, lower-income/education, higher BMI, waist circumference, and of hypertension, diabetes, depression, and higher levels of GlycA when compared to the ACS. The strategy chosen to define the high-risk group seems adequate given that multiple sociodemographic and clinical characteristics are compatible with CID.