Persistence of black-tailed prairie-dog populations affected by plague in northern Colorado, USA.

The spatial distribution of prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) colonies in North America has changed from large, contiguous populations to small, isolated colonies in metapopulations. One factor responsible for this drastic change in prairie-dog population structure is plague (caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis). We fit stochastic patch occupancy models to 20 years of prairie-dog colony occupancy data from two discrete metapopulations (west and east) in the Pawnee National Grassland in Colorado, USA, that differ in connectivity among suitable habitat patches. We conducted model selection between two hypothesized modes of plague movement: independent of prairie-dog dispersal (colony-area) vs. plague movement consistent with prairie-dog dispersal (connectivity to extinct colonies). The best model, which fit the data well (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.94 west area; 0.79 east area), revealed that over time the proportion of extant colonies was better explained by colony size than by connectivity to extinct (plagued) colonies. The idea that prairie dogs are not likely to be the main vector that spreads Y. pestis across the landscape is supported by the observation that colony extinctions are primarily caused by plague, prairie-dog dispersal is short range, and connectivity to extinct colonies was not selected as a factor in the models. We also conducted simulations with the best model to examine long-term patterns of colony occupancy and persistence of prairie-dog metapopulations. In the case where the metapopulations persist, our model predicted that the western metapopulation would have a colony occupancy rate approximately 2.5 times higher than that of the eastern metapopulation (-50% occupied colonies vs. 20%) in 50 years, but that the western metapopulation has -80% chance of extinction in 100 years while the eastern metapopulation has a less than 25% chance. Extinction probability of individual colonies depended on the frequency with which colonies of the same size class occurred in the metapopulation. Thus, the long-term persistence of prairie-dog metapopulations depended on specific details of the metapopulation.

Extreme plasticity in thermoregulatory behaviors of free-ranging black-tailed prairie dogs.

In the natural environment, hibernating sciurids generally remain dormant during winter and enter numerous deep torpor bouts from the time of first immergence in fall until emergence in spring. In contrast, black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) remain active throughout winter but periodically enter short and shallow bouts of torpor. While investigating body temperature (T(b)) patterns of black-tailed prairie dogs from six separate colonies in northern Colorado, we observed one population that displayed torpor patterns resembling those commonly seen in hibernators. Five individuals in this population experienced multiple torpor bouts in immediate succession that increased in length and depth as winter progressed, whereas 16 prairie dogs in five neighboring colonies remained euthermic for the majority of winter and entered shallow bouts of torpor infrequently. Our results suggest that these differences in torpor patterns did not result from differences in the physiological indicators that we measured because the prairie dogs monitored had similar body masses and concentrations of stored lipids across seasons. Likewise, our results did not support the idea that differences in overwinter T(b) patterns between prairie dogs in colonies with differing torpor patterns resulted from genetic differences between populations; genetic analyses of prairie dog colonies revealed high genetic similarity between the populations and implied that individuals regularly disperse between colonies. Local environmental conditions probably played a role in the unusual T(b) patterns experienced by prairie dogs in the colony where hibernation-like patterns were observed; this population received significantly less rainfall than neighboring colonies during the summer growing seasons before, during, and after the year of the winter in which they hibernated. Our study provides a rare example of extreme plasticity in thermoregulatory behaviors of free-ranging prairie dogs and provides evidence contrary to models that propose a clear delineation between homeothermy, facultative torpor, and hibernation.