Cross-border mobility responses to COVID-19 in Europe: new evidence from facebook data.

BACKGROUND: Assessing the impact of government responses to Covid-19 is crucial to contain the pandemic and improve preparedness for future crises. We investigate here the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and infection threats on the daily evolution of cross-border movements of people during the Covid-19 pandemic. We use a unique database on Facebook users' mobility, and rely on regression and machine learning models to identify the role of infection threats and containment policies. Permutation techniques allow us to compare the impact and predictive power of these two categories of variables. RESULTS: In contrast with studies on within-border mobility, our models point to a stronger importance of containment policies in explaining changes in cross-border traffic as compared with international travel bans and fears of being infected. The latter are proxied by the numbers of Covid-19 cases and deaths at destination. Although the ranking among coercive policies varies across modelling techniques, containment measures in the destination country (such as cancelling of events, restrictions on internal movements and public gatherings), and school closures in the origin country (influencing parental leaves) have the strongest impacts on cross-border movements. CONCLUSION: While descriptive in nature, our findings have policy-relevant implications. Cross-border movements of people predominantly consist of labor commuting flows and business travels. These economic and essential flows are marginally influenced by the fear of infection and international travel bans. They are mostly governed by the stringency of internal containment policies and the ability to travel.

Investigating the drivers of the spatio-temporal heterogeneity in COVID-19 hospital incidence-Belgium as a study case.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic is affecting nations globally, but with an impact exhibiting significant spatial and temporal variation at the sub-national level. Identifying and disentangling the drivers of resulting hospitalisation incidence at the local scale is key to predict, mitigate and manage epidemic surges, but also to develop targeted measures. However, this type of analysis is often not possible because of the lack of spatially-explicit health data and spatial uncertainties associated with infection. METHODS: To overcome these limitations, we propose an analytical framework to investigate potential drivers of the spatio-temporal heterogeneity in COVID-19 hospitalisation incidence when data are only available at the hospital level. Specifically, the approach is based on the delimitation of hospital catchment areas, which allows analysing associations between hospitalisation incidence and spatial or temporal covariates. We illustrate and apply our analytical framework to Belgium, a country heavily impacted by two COVID-19 epidemic waves in 2020, both in terms of mortality and hospitalisation incidence. RESULTS: Our spatial analyses reveal an association between the hospitalisation incidence and the local density of nursing home residents, which confirms the important impact of COVID-19 in elderly communities of Belgium. Our temporal analyses further indicate a pronounced seasonality in hospitalisation incidence associated with the seasonality of weather variables. Taking advantage of these associations, we discuss the feasibility of predictive models based on machine learning to predict future hospitalisation incidence. CONCLUSION: Our reproducible analytical workflow allows performing spatially-explicit analyses of data aggregated at the hospital level and can be used to explore potential drivers and dynamic of COVID-19 hospitalisation incidence at regional or national scales.

Identifying gene-specific subgroups: an alternative to biclustering.

BACKGROUND: Transcriptome analysis aims at gaining insight into cellular processes through discovering gene expression patterns across various experimental conditions. Biclustering is a standard approach to discover genes subsets with similar expression across subgroups of samples to be identified. The result is a set of biclusters, each forming a specific submatrix of rows (e.g. genes) and columns (e.g. samples). Relevant biclusters can, however, be missed when, due to the presence of a few outliers, they lack the assumed homogeneity of expression values among a few gene/sample combinations. The Max-Sum SubMatrix problem addresses this issue by looking at highly expressed subsets of genes and of samples, without enforcing such homogeneity. RESULTS: We present here the K-CPGC algorithm to identify K relevant submatrices. Our main contribution is to show that this approach outperforms biclustering algorithms to identify several gene subsets representative of specific subgroups of samples. Experiments are conducted on 35 gene expression datasets from human tissues and yeast samples. We report comparative results with those obtained by several biclustering algorithms, including CCA, xMOTIFs, ISA, QUBIC, Plaid and Spectral. Gene enrichment analysis demonstrates the benefits of the proposed approach to identify more statistically significant gene subsets. The most significant Gene Ontology terms identified with K-CPGC are shown consistent with the controlled conditions of each dataset. This analysis supports the biological relevance of the identified gene subsets. An additional contribution is the statistical validation protocol proposed here to assess the relative performances of biclustering algorithms and of the proposed method. It relies on a Friedman test and the Hochberg's sequential procedure to report critical differences of ranks among all algorithms. CONCLUSIONS: We propose here the K-CPGC method, a computationally efficient algorithm to identify K max-sum submatrices in a large gene expression matrix. Comparisons show that it identifies more significantly enriched subsets of genes and specific subgroups of samples which are easily interpretable by biologists. Experiments also show its ability to identify more reliable GO terms. These results illustrate the benefits of the proposed approach in terms of interpretability and of biological enrichment quality. Open implementation of this algorithm is available as an R package.