Food waste reduction and economic savings in times of crisis: The potential of machine learning methods to plan guest attendance in Swedish public catering during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Food waste is a significant problem within public catering establishments in any normal situation. During spring 2020 the Covid-19 pandemic placed the public catering system under greater pressure, revealing weaknesses within the system and generation of food waste due to rapidly changing consumption patterns. In times of crisis, it is especially important to conserve resources and allocate existing resources to areas where they can be of most use, but this poses significant challenges. This study evaluated the potential of a forecasting model to predict guest attendance during the start and throughout the pandemic. This was done by collecting data on guest attendance in Swedish school and preschool catering establishments before and during the pandemic, and using a machine learning approach to predict future guest attendance based on historical data. Comparison of various learning methods revealed that random forest produced more accurate forecasts than a simple artificial neural network, with conditional mean absolute prediction error of < 0.15 for the trained dataset. Economic savings were obtained by forecasting compared with a no-plan scenario, supporting selection of the random forest approach for effective forecasting of meal planning. Overall, the results obtained using forecasting models for meal planning in times of crisis confirmed their usefulness. Continuous use can improve estimates for the test period, due to the agile and flexible nature of these models. This is particularly important when guest attendance is unpredictable, so that production planning can be optimized to reduce food waste and contribute to a more sustainable and resilient food system.

Caring more about food: The unexpected positive effect of the Covid-19 lockdown on household food management and waste.

Over half of the total amount of food wasted in Europe concerns household food waste which is mainly due to incorrect food management habits and behaviour. During the Covid-19 outbreak, food management and consumption habits changed dramatically due to the tough lockdown restrictions imposed by governments to reduce infection. This study investigated how these dramatic changes in the daily lives of consumers influenced the generation of food waste at household level. A CAWI questionnaire was administered to a sample of 1078 Italian consumers during the lockdown (March-April 2020). The respondents were asked to self-estimate the percentage of food their households wasted before and during the lockdown and to explain their food management habits. We focused the analysis on the differences between the food the respondents declared to have wasted before and during lockdown, which revealed that most households threw away less food during the Covid-19 lockdown compared to the pre-Covid situation. We referred to Seemingly Unrelated Regression models to evaluate the association between the food waste behaviour in the two periods considered in the study and the other factors observed. The results disclosed that young consumers and people who started implementing good food management practices (shopping list, meal planning etc.) more frequently considerably reduced the food they wasted during lockdown. Also, the logistical difficulties of grocery shopping experienced by consumers during lockdown made them manage their household food consumption more carefully, which led to a reduction in the amount of food wasted.

Consumer expenditure, elasticity and value of food waste: A Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System for evaluating changes in Mexico during COVID-19.

Household food waste is driven by consumer habits and behaviors. The necessary measures implemented during the lockdown worldwide to contain the Covid-19 pandemic altered these consumer practices. This paper examines how household's culinary traditions and food management have changed in Mexico as a result of Covid-related restrictions, and their impact on food waste. We obtained 525 answers using an online survey about food habits distributed through social networks in Mexico between December 2020 and January 2021. The results show that the participating households increased their monetary expenditure on groceries and reduced food waste during the pandemic. The estimation of consumer responsiveness to waste, through the introduction of a framework based on a Quadratic Almost-Ideal Demand System, confirms that, even more during the lockdown, food waste has become a luxury good. The analysis of food category changes allows for a detailed study useful to curtail the level of food waste in Mexican households and to encourage transition towards sustainable and circular consumption behaviors.

Choosing a healthy and sustainable diet: A three-level approach for understanding the drivers of the Italians' dietary regime over time.

Dietary patterns play key roles in health promotion and in preserving the environment. A growing number of studies show the importance of individual factors on food consumption choices, such as socio-economic status, lifestyle variables and contextual and social factors that characterize the geographical area in which individuals reside. The Mediterranean Diet is a sustainable diet that respects the environment, thus reducing per capita emissions from food production in respect to less sustainable diet. The aim of this paper is to determine the Italians' prevailing food patterns using a composite indicator and to identify which factors determine a higher adherence to the Mediterranean Diet in Italy. By using 15 waves of the ISTAT "Aspect of Daily Life" survey, we constructed an original data set and referred to the multilevel approach which enabled us to distinguish between temporal and cross-sectional effects thus providing valuable insights to policy makers and stakeholders in order to promote the Mediterranean Diet and reap environmental and public health. The results show that education plays an important role in determining food consumption behavior while the tendency to practice sports on a regular basis and to have breakfast and lunch at home positively influence people's adherence to this diet.

The Economic Perspective of Food Poverty and (In)security: An Analytical Approach to Measuring and Estimation in Italy.

The UN Sustainable Development Goals have set clear targets on global poverty, hunger and malnutrition to be achieved by 2030, which have prompted academics and policymakers to identify useful strategies and drivers. Moreover, the COVID19 pandemic has exacerbated inequalities at national and sub-national levels thus hampering the achievement of these goals. On considering the multifaceted nature of poverty, a recent research strand focuses on food poverty and insecurity issues in terms of economic access to food and healthy diet consumption, with moderate and extreme food insecurity affecting almost 9% of the population in Europe and North America. This paper aims to analyse food poverty and insecurity at regional level in Italy. Using micro-data from the Italian Household Budget Survey carried out by ISTAT, an analytical approach was proposed to define and measure the different degree of food poverty and insecurity. Moreover, to obtain insights into whether food poverty and insecurity can afford population healthy nutrition, inequality of the distributions of food expenditure categories are estimated. The results provided us with information on other important aspects of the poverty. Indeed, in Italy individuals who are at-risk-of-food-poverty or food insecure amount to 22.3% of the entire population. Furthermore, the at-risk-of-food-poverty-rate varies at regional level from 14.6% (Umbria) to 29.6% (Abruzzo), with high levels of food consumption inequalities observed above all for vegetables, meat and fish. All these issues could help policy makers to define economic intervention policies aimed at reducing social exclusion and achieving more equitable and sustainable living conditions for the entire population.

Overnutrition is a significant component of food waste and has a large environmental impact.

Food waste and obesity and overweight conditions are both linked to the unsustainability of current food systems. This article argues that overnutrition should be considered a form of food waste and it provides a first estimation of the quantity of food over-consumed in Italy. This is done by calculating the excess calories consumed by obese and overweight people and converting them into food quantities by comparison with a typical Italian diet. The total quantity of food consumed in excess by Italian citizens due to overnutrition is calculated as 1.553 million tonnes per year, which is comparable to the current national household food waste assessments. The environmental impact arising from production and consumption of this food accounts for 6.15 Mt of CO2-eq per year, as estimated by a Life Cycle Analysis conducted on the 46 food categories which compose the typical Italian diet. Overnutrition in the South-Islands regions of Italy exerts the largest impact (31.6%), followed by the North-West (26.6%), the Centre (22.2%), and the North-East (19.1%).

Guest attendance data from 34 Swedish pre-schools and primary schools.

This data article describes 34 datasets, compiled into one table, describing guest attendance at lunch meal servings in Swedish public schools and preschools. Fifteen of the schools and all 16 of the preschools covered belong to one municipality, while the remaining three schools belong to two other municipalities, all located in central Sweden. Data on number of plates was used as a proxy of the number of guests eating lunch. Number of used plates was recorded from late August 2010 to early June 2020, i.e. covering the period both before and during the initial phase of the Covid-19 pandemic, so that making possible to evaluate changes in guest attendance during the pandemic. Since these were real data, all data elements pertaining to exact canteens or staff identity have been removed. There is a scarcity of real business data for scientific and educational purposes, so these datasets can play an important role in research and education within catering management, consumption pattern analysis, machine learning, data mining and other fields.

A multilevel carbon and water footprint dataset of food commodities.

Informing and engaging citizens to adopt sustainable diets is a key strategy for reducing global environmental impacts of the agricultural and food sectors. In this respect, the first requisite to support citizens and actors of the food sector is to provide them a publicly available, reliable and ready to use synthesis of environmental pressures associated to food commodities. Here we introduce the SU-EATABLE LIFE database, a multilevel database of carbon (CF) and water (WF) footprint values of food commodities, based on a standardized methodology to extract information and assign optimal footprint values and uncertainties to food items, starting from peer-reviewed articles and grey literature. The database and its innovative methodological framework for uncertainty treatment and data quality assurance provides a solid basis for evaluating the impact of dietary shifts on global environmental policies, including climate mitigation through greenhouse gas emission reductions. The database ensures repeatability and further expansion, providing a reliable science-based tool for managers and researcher in the food sector.

Food waste accounting methodologies: Challenges, opportunities, and further advancements.

About one third of the food produced globally is wasted along the food chain, representing a burden for the environment and an inefficiency of the food system. Tackling food waste is a priority on the global political agenda to guarantee food security. Defining a methodology for food waste quantification is key to monitoring progress towards the achievement of reduction targets. This paper summarises the outcomes of a workshop on food waste accounting co-organised by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre and Directorate-General on Health and Food Safety with the aim of stimulating harmonisation of methodologies, identifying challenges, opportunities, and further advancement for food waste accounting. The paper presents methodological aspects, e.g. system boundaries, reliability of data, accounting of water flows, to ensure better support to food waste policy design and interventions. It addresses all the actors of the food supply chain, governments, and research institutions.