Premature mortality of gastrointestinal cancer in Iran: trends and projections 2001-2030.

BACKGROUND: The present study was conducted to determine the trend and projection of premature mortality from gastrointestinal cancers (GI cancers) at national and subnational levels in Iran. METHODS: Employing the data obtained from Iranian Death Registry System (DRS) and population data from census, the mortality rates of GI cancers was calculated among 30-70 age groups. The trends of esophageal, colon and rectum, gallbladder, pancreases, stomach, and liver cancer premature mortalities were estimated and projected at the national and subnational levels from 2001 to 2030. Then, Spatio-temporal model was used to project spatial and temporal correlations. RESULTS: The overall mortality rate of GI cancers was higher in males than in females, indicating 6.1, 3.9 and 3.9% per 100,000 individuals among males in 2001, 2015 and 2030 respectively and 3.8, 3.1 and 3.7 per 100,000 individuals among females in the same time-frame. The overall mortality rate of GI cancers in males was decreasing until 2015 and will remain stationary into 2030; however, the rate will be increasing among females in both time-frames. Also, there was a considerable variation in the mortality trends of different cancers. Pancreatic, gallbladder, and liver cancers were shown to have an increasing trend while a drop was observed in the mortality rates of stomach, colon and rectum, and esophageal cancers. CONCLUSION: Variation of GI cancers patterns and trends around the country indicated that a more comprehensive control plan is needed to include the predicted variations.

Avoidable Burden of Risk Factors for Serious Road Traffic Crashes in Iran: A Modeling Study.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to model the avoidable burden of the risk factors of road traffic crashes in Iran and to prioritize interventions to reduce that burden. METHODS: The prevalence and the effect size of the risk factors were obtained from data documented by the traffic police of Iran in 2013. The effect size was estimated using an ordinal regression model. The potential impact fraction index was applied to calculate the avoidable burden in order to prioritize interventions. This index was calculated for theoretical, plausible, and feasible minimum risk level scenarios. The joint effects of the risk factors were then estimated for all the scenarios. RESULTS: The highest avoidable burdens in the theoretical, plausible, and feasible minimum risk level scenarios for the non-use of child restraints on urban roads were 52.25, 28.63, and 46.67, respectively. In contrast, the value of this index for speeding was 76.24, 37.00, and 62.23, respectively, for rural roads. CONCLUSIONS: On the basis of the different scenarios considered in this research, we suggest focusing on future interventions to decrease the prevalence of speeding, the non-use of child restraints, the use of cell phones while driving, and helmet disuse, and the laws related to these items should be considered seriously.