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1.
Epidemiol Infect ; 150: e100, 2022 05 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35545847

RESUMO

This paper presents a method used to rapidly assess the incursion and the establishment of community transmission of suspected SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern Delta (lineage B.1.617.2) into the UK in April and May 2021. The method described is independent of any genetically sequenced data, and so avoids the inherent lag times involved in sequencing of cases. We show that, between 1 April and 12 May 2021, there was a strong correlation between local authorities with high numbers of imported positive cases from India and high COVID-19 case rates, and that this relationship holds as we look at finer geographic detail. Further, we also show that Bolton was an outlier in the relationship, having the highest COVID-19 case rates despite relatively few importations. We use an artificial neural network trained on demographic data, to show that observed importations in Bolton were consistent with similar areas. Finally, using an SEIR transmission model, we show that imported positive cases were a contributing factor to persistent transmission in a number of local authorities, however they could not account for increased case rates observed in Bolton. As such, the outbreak of Delta variant in Bolton was likely not a result of direct importation from overseas, but rather secondary transmission from other regions within the UK.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2/genética , Reino Unido/epidemiologia
2.
Bull World Health Organ ; 99(3): 178-189, 2021 Mar 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33716340

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To describe the clinical presentation, course of disease and health-care seeking behaviour of the first few hundred cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. METHODS: We implemented the World Health Organization's First Few X cases and contacts investigation protocol for COVID-19. Trained public health professionals collected information on 381 virologically confirmed COVID-19 cases from 31 January 2020 to 9 April 2020. We actively followed up cases to identify exposure to infection, symptoms and outcomes. We also collected limited data on 752 symptomatic people testing negative for COVID-19, as a control group for analyses of the sensitivity, specificity and predictive value of symptoms. FINDINGS: Approximately half of the COVID-19 cases were imported (196 cases; 51.4%), of whom the majority had recent travel to Italy (140 cases; 71.4%). Of the 94 (24.7%) secondary cases, almost all reported close contact with a confirmed case (93 cases; 98.9%), many through household contact (37 cases; 39.8%). By age, a lower proportion of children had COVID-19. Most cases presented with cough, fever and fatigue. The sensitivity and specificity of symptoms varied by age, with nonlinear relationships with age. Although the proportion of COVID-19 cases with fever increased with age, for those with other respiratory infections the occurrence of fever decreased with age. The occurrence of shortness of breath also increased with age in a greater proportion of COVID-19 cases. CONCLUSION: The study has provided useful evidence for generating case definitions and has informed modelling studies of the likely burden of COVID-19.


Assuntos
COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/fisiopatologia , Adolescente , Adulto , Distribuição por Idade , Idoso , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Dispneia/epidemiologia , Feminino , Humanos , Lactente , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Infecções Respiratórias/epidemiologia , SARS-CoV-2 , Viagem , Reino Unido/epidemiologia , Adulto Jovem
3.
PLOS Glob Public Health ; 3(6): e0001975, 2023.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37347725

RESUMO

Air travel plays an important role in the cross-border spread of infectious diseases. During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic many countries introduced strict border testing protocols to monitor the incursion of the virus. However, high implementation costs and significant inconvenience to passengers have led public health authorities to consider alternative methods of disease surveillance at borders. Aircraft wastewater monitoring has been proposed as one such alternative. In this paper we assess the theoretical limits of aircraft wastewater monitoring and compare its performance to post-arrival border screening approaches. Using an infectious disease model, we simulate an unmitigated SARS-CoV-2 epidemic originating in a seed country and spreading to the United Kingdom (UK) through daily flights. We use a probabilistic approach to estimate the time of first detection in the UK in aircraft wastewater and respiratory swab screening. Across a broad range of model parameters, our analysis indicates that the median time between the first incursion and detection in wastewater would be approximately 17 days (IQR: 7-28 days), resulting in a median of 25 cumulative cases (IQR: 6-84 cases) in the UK at the point of detection. Comparisons to respiratory swab screening suggest that aircraft wastewater monitoring is as effective as random screening of 20% of passengers at the border, using a test with 95% sensitivity. For testing regimes with sensitivity of 85% or less, the required coverage to outperform wastewater monitoring increases to 30%. Analysis of other model parameters suggests that wastewater monitoring is most effective when used on long-haul flights where probability of defecation is above 30%, and when the target pathogen has high faecal shedding rates and reasonable detectability in wastewater. These results demonstrate the potential use cases of aircraft wastewater monitoring and its utility in a wider system of public health surveillance.

4.
PLoS One ; 17(10): e0264870, 2022.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36240178

RESUMO

Understanding the scale of the threat posed by SARS-CoV2 B.1.1.529, or Omicron, variant formed a key problem in public health in the early part of 2022. Early evidence indicated that the variant was more transmissible and less severe than previous variants. As the virus was expected to spread quickly through the population of England, it was important that some understanding of the immunological landscape of the country was developed. This paper attempts to estimate the number of people with good immunity to the Omicron variant, defined as either recent infection with two doses of vaccine, or two doses of vaccine with a recent booster dose. To achieve this, we use a process of iterative proportional fitting to estimate the cell values of a contingency table, using national immunisation records and real-time model infection estimates as marginal values. Our results indicate that, despite the increased risk of immune evasion with the Omicron variant, a high proportion of England's population had good immunity to the virus, particularly in older age groups. However, low rates of immunity in younger populations may allow endemic infection to persist for some time.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Vacinas , Idoso , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Inglaterra/epidemiologia , Humanos , RNA Viral , SARS-CoV-2
5.
Front Pediatr ; 10: 1034280, 2022.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36545670

RESUMO

Objectives: Paediatric Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome (PIMS-TS) is a rare life-threatening complication that typically occurs several weeks after SARS-CoV-2 infection in children and young people (CYP). We used national and regional-level data from the COVID-19 pandemic waves in England to develop a model to predict PIMS-TS cases. Methods: SARS-CoV-2 infections in CYP aged 0-15 years in England were estimated using the PHE-Cambridge real-time model. PIMS-TS cases were identified through the British Paediatric Surveillance Unit during (March-June 2020) and through Secondary Uses Services (SUS) from November 2020. A predictive model was developed to estimate PIMS-TS risk and lag times after SARS-CoV-2 infections. Results: During the Alpha wave, the model accurately predicted PIMS-TS cases (506 vs. 502 observed cases), with a median estimated risk of 0.038% (IQR, 0.037-0.041%) of paediatric SARS-CoV-2 infections. For the Delta wave, the median risk of PIMS-TS was significantly lower at 0.026% (IQR, 0.025-0.029%), with 212 observed PIMS-TS cases compared to 450 predicted by the model. Conclusions: The model accurately predicted national and regional PIMS-TS cases in CYP during the Alpha wave. PIMS-TS cases were 53% lower than predicted during the Delta wave. Further studies are needed to understand the mechanisms of the observed lower risk with the Delta variant.

6.
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci ; 376(1829): 20200277, 2021 07 19.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34053270

RESUMO

We investigate the effect of school closure and subsequent reopening on the transmission of COVID-19, by considering Denmark, Norway, Sweden and German states as case studies. By comparing the growth rates in daily hospitalizations or confirmed cases under different interventions, we provide evidence that school closures contribute to a reduction in the growth rate approximately 7 days after implementation. Limited school attendance, such as older students sitting exams or the partial return of younger year groups, does not appear to significantly affect community transmission. In countries where community transmission is generally low, such as Denmark or Norway, a large-scale reopening of schools while controlling or suppressing the epidemic appears feasible. However, school reopening can contribute to statistically significant increases in the growth rate in countries like Germany, where community transmission is relatively high. In all regions, a combination of low classroom occupancy and robust test-and-trace measures were in place. Our findings underscore the need for a cautious evaluation of reopening strategies. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK'.


Assuntos
COVID-19/epidemiologia , Pandemias , SARS-CoV-2/patogenicidade , Adolescente , COVID-19/transmissão , COVID-19/virologia , Dinamarca/epidemiologia , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Alemanha/epidemiologia , Humanos , Noruega/epidemiologia , Instituições Acadêmicas/tendências , Suécia/epidemiologia
7.
Lancet Reg Health Eur ; 3: 100075, 2021 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34027512

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Paediatric Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome temporally associated with SARS-CoV-2 (PIMS-TS), first identified in April 2020, shares features of both Kawasaki disease (KD) and toxic shock syndrome (TSS). The surveillance describes the epidemiology and clinical characteristics of PIMS-TS in the United Kingdom and Ireland. METHODS: Public Health England initiated prospective national surveillance of PIMS-TS through the British Paediatric Surveillance Unit. Paediatricians were contacted monthly to report PIMS-TS, KD and TSS cases electronically and complete a detailed clinical questionnaire. Cases with symptom onset between 01 March and 15 June 2020 were included. FINDINGS: There were 216 cases with features of PIMS-TS alone, 13 with features of both PIMS-TS and KD, 28 with features of PIMS-TS and TSS and 11 with features of PIMS-TS, KD and TSS, with differences in age, ethnicity, clinical presentation and disease severity between the phenotypic groups. There was a strong geographical and temporal association between SARS-CoV-2 infection rates and PIMS-TS cases. Of those tested, 14.8% (39/264) children had a positive SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR, and 63.6% (75/118) were positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. In total 44·0% (118/268) required intensive care, which was more common in cases with a TSS phenotype. Three of five children with cardiac arrest had TSS phenotype. Three children (1·1%) died. INTERPRETATION: The strong association between SARS-CoV-2 infection and PIMS-TS emphasises the importance of maintaining low community infection rates to reduce the risk of this rare but severe complication in children and adolescents. Close follow-up will be important to monitor long-term complications in children with PIMS-TS. FUNDING: PHE.

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