Lack of medical resources and public health vulnerability in Mongolia's winter disasters.

INTRODUCTION: Many countries face the need to address medical resource shortages following various disasters. The dzud is a winter disaster that occurs in Mongolia following drought in dryland areas, and it leads to high livestock mortality. Affected provinces suffer increased mortality rates for children aged under 5 years. Using various factors, including medical resources, the present study aimed to evaluate the health risks for children during the dzud. METHODS: Data from all of Mongolia's 21 provinces and the capital of Ulaanbaatar were analyzed. The change in child mortality (CCM) was defined as the difference in the under-five mortality rate from 2009 to 2010. To determine the correlations, the CCM was compared with the urbanization rate (proportion of urban population), number of physicians and nurses (per 1000 residents), average temperature, total precipitation (October 2009 to February 2010), and declining rate in livestock numbers for 2009-10 (percentage livestock loss) in each province. RESULTS: The correlation coefficients between the CCM and each factor were as follows: number of physicians (r=−0.506, p=0.016), urbanization rate (r=−0.467, p=0.029), and percentage livestock loss (r=0.469, p=0.028). In the multiple regression analysis, the number of physicians was significantly negatively related to the CCM (standardizing coefficient −0.492, p=0.020). CONCLUSION: These results suggest that increased medical resources and infrastructure development have positive effects on child health - even in the setting where the dzud causes considerable damage to livestock.

Increasing nitrogen deposition enhances post-drought recovery of grassland productivity in the Mongolian steppe.

Arid regions are prone to drought because annual rainfall accumulation depends on a few rainfall events. Natural plant communities are damaged by drought, but atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition may enhance the recovery of plant productivity after drought. Here, we investigated the effect of increasing N deposition on post-drought recovery of grassland productivity in the Mongolian steppe, and we examined the influence of grazing in this recovery. We added different amounts of N to a Mongolian grassland during two sequential drought years (2006 and 2007) and the subsequent 3 years of normal rainfall (2008-2010) under grazed and nongrazed conditions. Aboveground biomass and number of shoots were surveyed annually for each species. Nitrogen addition increased grassland productivity after drought irrespective of the grazing regime. The increase in grassland productivity was associated with an increase in the size of an annual, Salsola collina, under grazed conditions, and with an increase in shoot emergence of a perennial, Artemisia adamsii, under nongrazed conditions. The addition of low N content simulating N deposition around the study area by the year 2050 did not significantly increase grassland productivity. Our results suggest that increasing N deposition can enhance grassland recovery after a drought even in arid environments, such as the Mongolian steppe. This enhancement may be accompanied by a loss of grassland quality caused by an increase in the unpalatable species A. adamsii and largely depends on future human activities and the consequent deposition of N in Mongolia.

Electrical Conductivity, pH, Minerals, and Sensory Evaluation of Airag (Fermented Mare's Milk).

Traditional airag (fermented mare's milk) is a sour, slightly alcoholic drink handmade by Mongolian nomads. As airag is not heated after production, the fermentation continues to proceed and the taste changes rapidly. The objective of this study was to investigate the association of the sensory taste evaluation of airag with some properties-electrical conductivity (EC), pH and concentrations of macro minerals (calcium (Ca), phosphorous (P), sulfur (S), magnesium (Mg), potassium (K), and sodium (Na))-of airag. We held an airag contest in Mogod county, one of the most famous airag production areas, in order to collect samples of airag for the analysis of airag properties and to conduct an airag taste evaluation by Mongolian people. The results of the statistical analysis indicated that the EC-value was related to the evaluation score of airag. Except for EC, no statistically significant relationship between the taste score and the other properties was found in this study. It was concluded that the EC-value would be a simple measurement indicator for evaluating the quality of airag on site.

Cold-season disasters on the Eurasian steppes: Climate-driven or man-made.

Socio-ecological damage from climate-related disasters has increased worldwide, including a type of cold-season disaster (dzud) that is unique to the Eurasian steppes, notably Mongolia. During 2000-2014, dzuds killed approximately 30 million livestock and impacted the Mongolian socio-economy. The contributions of both natural and social processes to livestock mortality were not previously considered across Mongolia. Here, we consider the contribution of both multiple climate hazards (drought, cold temperatures and snow), and socioeconomic vulnerability (herders' livestock and coping-capacity) to mortality risk. We performed multi-regression analyses for each province using meteorological, livestock and socioeconomic datasets. Our results show that 93.5% of mortality within Mongolia was caused by a combination of multi-hazards (47.3%) and vulnerability (46.2%), suggesting dzuds were both climate- and man-made. However, in high-mortality hotspots, mortality was primarily caused by multi-hazards (drought-induced pasture deficiency and deep-snow). Livestock overpopulation and a lack of coping capacities that caused inadequate preparedness (e.g., hay/forage) were the main vulnerability factors. Frequent and severe multi-hazards greatly increased the mortality risk, while increased vulnerability caused by socioeconomic changes in Mongolia since the 1990s tended to amplify the effects of multi-hazards. Thus, reductions in herder vulnerability within high-mortality hotspots would likely be an effective means of mitigating the risk of future dzuds.

Author Correction: Cold-season disasters on the Eurasian steppes: Climate-driven or man-made.

A correction to this article has been published and is linked from the HTML and PDF versions of this paper. The error has not been fixed in the paper.

Movements of dams milked for fermented horse milk production in Mongolia.

Airag, (Fermented horse milk) is a traditional milk product in Mongolia. Herders separate foals from their dams and tie them at a milking site during the daytime to produce airag. To evaluate the effects of horse management on the movement of dams, we tracked three dams in a herd in camp 1 during summer and camp 2 during autumn of 2013 and analyzed their movements during the milking (daytime) and non-milking (nighttime) periods in an area famous for its high-quality airag. Dams were gathered every 1.7 ± 0.0 h between 07.46 and 15.47 hours at the milking sites and milked 4.6 ± 0.2 times/day during the study period (86 days). Daily cumulative and maximum linear distances from the milking sites were longer (P < 0.01) during the non-milking period than during the milking period. Daily home ranges were 91 and 26 times greater during the non-milking period (P < 0.001) in camps 1 and 2, respectively. The greater range during the non-milking period would reflect the spatial distributions of water, salt and forage. The dams initially used similar areas and gradually shifted their daily home ranges after several days. This shift suggests that the dams grazed farther afield as forage availability declined around the milking site. For better airag production and sustainable pasture use, our results provide insights useful for evaluating the effects of milking management on vegetation and soil in those pastures, for selecting the appropriate milking times and frequency, and for choosing the right timing to shift milking sites.

Prediction of health effects of cross-border atmospheric pollutants using an aerosol forecast model.

Health effects of cross-border air pollutants and Asian dust are of significant concern in Japan. Currently, models predicting the arrival of aerosols have not investigated the association between arrival predictions and health effects. We investigated the association between subjective health symptoms and unreleased aerosol data from the Model of Aerosol Species in the Global Atmosphere (MASINGAR) acquired from the Japan Meteorological Agency, with the objective of ascertaining if these data could be applied to predicting health effects. Subjective symptom scores were collected via self-administered questionnaires and, along with modeled surface aerosol concentration data, were used to conduct a risk evaluation using generalized estimating equations between October and November 2011. Altogether, 29 individuals provided 1670 responses. Spearman's correlation coefficients were determined for the relationship between the proportion of the participants reporting the maximum score of two or more for each symptom and the surface concentrations for each considered aerosol species calculated using MASINGAR; the coefficients showed significant intermediate correlations between surface sulfate aerosol concentration and respiratory, throat, and fever symptoms (R = 0.557, 0.454, and 0.470, respectively; p < 0.01). In the general estimation equation (logit link) analyses, a significant linear association of surface sulfate aerosol concentration, with an endpoint determined by reported respiratory symptom scores of two or more, was observed (P trend = 0.001, odds ratio [OR] of the highest quartile [Q4] vs. the lowest [Q1] = 5.31, 95% CI = 2.18 to 12.96), with adjustment for potential confounding. The surface sulfate aerosol concentration was also associated with throat and fever symptoms. In conclusion, our findings suggest that modeled data are potentially useful for predicting health risks of cross-border aerosol arrivals.

Variations in the structure of airborne bacterial communities in Tsogt-Ovoo of Gobi desert area during dust events.

Asian dust events transport the airborne bacteria in Chinese desert regions as well as mineral particles and influence downwind area varying biological ecosystems and climate changes. However, the airborne bacterial dynamics were rarely investigated in the Gobi desert area, where dust events are highly frequent. In this study, air samplings were sequentially performed at a 2-m high above the ground at the sampling site located in desert area (Tsogt-Ovoo of Gobi desert; Mongolia 44.2304°N, 105.1700°E). During the dust event days, the bacterial cells and mineral particles increased to more than tenfold of concentrations. MiSeq sequencing targeting 16S ribosomal DNA revealed that the airborne bacteria in desert area mainly belonged to the classes Acidobacteria, Actinobacteria, Bacteroidetes, Chloroflexi, Bacilli, Alpha-proteobacteria, Beta-proteobacteria, and Gamma-proteobacteria. The bacterial community structures were different between dust events and non-dust events. The air samples collected at the dust events indicated high abundance rates of Alpha-proteobacteria, which were reported to dominate on the leaf surfaces of plants or in the saline lake environments. After the dust events, the members of Firmicutes (Bacilli) and Bacteroidetes, which are known to form endospore and attach with coarse particles, respectively, increased their relative abundances in the air samples. Presumably, the bacterial compositions and diversities in atmosphere significantly vary during dust events, which carry some particles from grassland (phyllo-sphere), dry lake, and sand surfaces, as well as some bacterial populations such as Firmicutes and Bacteroidetes maintain in the atmosphere for longer time.

Assessment of the Effects of Severe Winter Disasters (Dzud) on Public Health in Mongolia on the Basis of Loss of Livestock.

OBJECTIVE: Mongolia experienced one of its most severe natural winter disasters (dzud) in 2009-2010. It is difficult to accurately assess the risk of the effects of dzud on human lives and public health. This study aimed to evaluate the Mongolian public health risks of dzud by assessing livestock loss. METHODS: We analyzed data from all 21 provinces and Ulaanbaatar in Mongolia and compared the changes in infant mortality (2009-2010) and the decline in the numbers of livestock (percentage change from the previous year), which included horses, cattle, camels, sheep, and goats (2009-2010) and/or meteorological data. We also evaluated the association among the trends in the infant mortality rate, the number of livestock, and foodstuff consumption throughout Mongolia (2001-2012). RESULTS: The change in the infant mortality rate was positively correlated with the rate of decreasing numbers of each type of livestock in 2010. Average temperature and total precipitation were not related to the change in the infant mortality rate. In the trend from 2001 to 2012, there was a significant positive correlation between the infant mortality rate and the number of livestock and the consumption of milk products. CONCLUSIONS: Loss of livestock and shortage of milk products leading to malnutrition might have affected public health as typified by infant mortality in Mongolia. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:549-552).

Fragmentation of the habitat of wild ungulates by anthropogenic barriers in Mongolia.

Habitat loss and habitat fragmentation caused by anthropogenic activities are the main factors that constrain long-distance movement of ungulates. Mongolian gazelles (Procapra gutturosa) and Asiatic wild asses (Equus hemionus) in Mongolia are facing habitat fragmentation and loss. To better understand how their movements respond to potential anthropogenic and natural barriers, we tracked 24 Mongolian gazelles and 12 wild asses near the Ulaanbaatar-Beijing Railroad and the fenced international border between Mongolia and China between 2002 and 2012. None of the tracked gazelles crossed the railroad, even though gazelles were captured on both sides of the tracks at the start of the study. Similarly, we did not observe cross-border movements between Mongolia and China for either species, even though some animals used areas adjacent to the border. The both species used close areas to the anthropogenic barriers more frequently during winter than summer. These results suggest strong impacts by the artificial barriers. The construction of new railroads and roads to permit mining and other resource development therefore creates the threat of further habitat fragmentation, because the planned routes will divide the remaining non-fragmented habitats of the ungulates into smaller pieces. To conserve long-distance movement of the ungulates in this area, it will be necessary to remove or mitigate the barrier effects of the existing and planned roads and railroads and to adopt a landscape-level approach to allow access by ungulates to wide ranges throughout their distribution.

Long-term effects of livestock loss caused by dust storm on mongolian inhabitants: a survey 1 year after the dust storm.

BACKGROUND: Every spring, windblown dust storms damage human health and cause many domestic animal deaths in Mongolia. In particular, mass livestock death results in severe, direct economic loss to inhabitants. However, there is little empirical evidence to demonstrate the long-term effects of dust storm, especially in terms of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) secondary to livestock loss. We evaluated the long-term effects of livestock loss on Mongolian inhabitants. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional survey of HRQoL using 36-item short-form health survey (SF-36, an index of the health condition) 1 year after a dust storm. The study subjects were 64 inhabitants of stricken areas of Mongolia. The data collection method was a face-to-face interview with a questionnaire. RESULTS: A total of 64 subjects were interviewed, 81% in the victims group and 19% in the non-victims group. The mean number of livestock victims was 83.3, s = 128.3. The SF-36 subscale scores were lower among people who lost livestock than among those who did not. Multiple regression analysis displayed a significant association between livestock loss and HRQoL (general health: = -0.476, P = 0.021; vitality: = -0.359, P = 0.013). CONCLUSION: Our results provide preliminary evidence that livestock loss has long-term effects on HRQoL. Thus, it is necessary to conduct epidemiologic surveys on disorders associated with dust storms and devise countermeasures for the future.