Large stocks of peatland carbon and nitrogen are vulnerable to permafrost thaw.

Northern peatlands have accumulated large stocks of organic carbon (C) and nitrogen (N), but their spatial distribution and vulnerability to climate warming remain uncertain. Here, we used machine-learning techniques with extensive peat core data (n > 7,000) to create observation-based maps of northern peatland C and N stocks, and to assess their response to warming and permafrost thaw. We estimate that northern peatlands cover 3.7 ± 0.5 million km2 and store 415 ± 150 Pg C and 10 ± 7 Pg N. Nearly half of the peatland area and peat C stocks are permafrost affected. Using modeled global warming stabilization scenarios (from 1.5 to 6 °C warming), we project that the current sink of atmospheric C (0.10 ± 0.02 Pg C⋅y-1) in northern peatlands will shift to a C source as 0.8 to 1.9 million km2 of permafrost-affected peatlands thaw. The projected thaw would cause peatland greenhouse gas emissions equal to ∼1% of anthropogenic radiative forcing in this century. The main forcing is from methane emissions (0.7 to 3 Pg cumulative CH4-C) with smaller carbon dioxide forcing (1 to 2 Pg CO2-C) and minor nitrous oxide losses. We project that initial CO2-C losses reverse after ∼200 y, as warming strengthens peatland C-sinks. We project substantial, but highly uncertain, additional losses of peat into fluvial systems of 10 to 30 Pg C and 0.4 to 0.9 Pg N. The combined gaseous and fluvial peatland C loss estimated here adds 30 to 50% onto previous estimates of permafrost-thaw C losses, with southern permafrost regions being the most vulnerable.

Landscape determinants of pelagic and benthic primary production in northern lakes.

Global change affects gross primary production (GPP) in benthic and pelagic habitats of northern lakes by influencing catchment characteristics and lake water biogeochemistry. However, how changes in key environmental drivers manifest and impact total (i.e., benthic + pelagic) GPP and the partitioning of total GPP between habitats represented by the benthic share (autotrophic structuring) is unclear. Using a dataset from 26 shallow lakes located across Arctic, subarctic, and boreal northern Sweden, we investigate how catchment properties (air temperature, land cover, hydrology) affect lake physico-chemistry and patterns of total GPP and autotrophic structuring. We find that total GPP was mostly light limited, due to high dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations originating from catchment soils with coniferous vegetation and wetlands, which is further promoted by high catchment runoff. In contrast, autotrophic structuring related mostly to the relative size of the benthic habitat, and was potentially modified by CO2 fertilization in the subarctic, resulting in significantly higher total GPP relative to the other biomes. Across Arctic and subarctic sites, DIC and CO2 were unrelated to DOC, indicating that external inputs of inorganic carbon can influence lake productivity patterns independent of terrestrial DOC supply. By comparison, DOC and CO2 were correlated across boreal lakes, suggesting that DOC mineralization acts as an important CO2 source for these sites. Our results underline that GPP as a resource is regulated by landscape properties, and is sensitive to large-scale global changes (warming, hydrological intensification, recovery of acidification) that promote changes in catchment characteristics and aquatic physico-chemistry. Our findings aid in predicting global change impacts on autotrophic structuring, and thus community structure and resource use of aquatic consumers in general. Given the similarities of global changes across the Northern hemisphere, our findings are likely relevant for northern lakes globally.

Comparison of the distribution and phenology of Arctic Mountain plants between the early 20th and 21st centuries.

Arctic plants are adapted to climatic variability, but their long-term responses to warming remain unclear. Responses may occur by range shifts, phenological adjustments in growth and reproduction, or both. Here, we compare distribution and phenology of 83 arctic and boreal mountain species, sampled identically in the early 20th (1917-1919) and 21st centuries (2017-2018) from a region of northern Sweden that has warmed significantly. We test two compensatory hypotheses to high-latitude warming-upward shifts in distribution, and earlier or extended growth and reproduction. For distribution, we show dramatic upward migration by 69% of species, averaging 6.1 m per decade, especially boreal woodland taxa whose upward expansion has reduced arctic montane habitat by 30%. Twenty percent of summit species showed distributional shifts but downward, especially moisture-associated snowbed flora. For phenology, we detected wide inter-annual variability in the onset of leafing and flowering in both eras. However, there was no detectable change in growing-season length, relating to two mechanisms. First, plot-level snow melt data starting in 1917 demonstrated that melt date, rather than vernal temperatures, better predicts plant emergence, with snow melt influenced by warmer years having greater snowfall-warmer springs did not always result in earlier emergence because snowbeds can persist longer. Second, the onset of reproductive senescence between eras was similar, even when plant emergence was earlier by a month, possibly due to intensified summer heat stress or hard-wired 'canalization' where senescence occurs regardless of summer temperature. Migrations in this system have possibly buffered arctic species against displacement by boreal expansion and warming, but ongoing temperature increases, woody plant invasion, and a potential lack of flexibility in timing of senescence may foreshadow challenges.

Rhizosphere allocation by canopy-forming species dominates soil CO2 efflux in a subarctic landscape.

In arctic ecosystems, climate change has increased plant productivity. As arctic carbon (C) stocks predominantly are located belowground, the effects of greater plant productivity on soil C storage will significantly determine the net sink/source potential of these ecosystems, but vegetation controls on soil CO2 efflux remain poorly resolved. In order to identify the role of canopy-forming species in belowground C dynamics, we conducted a girdling experiment with plots distributed across 1 km2 of treeline birch (Betula pubescens) forest and willow (Salix lapponum) patches in northern Sweden and quantified the contribution of canopy vegetation to soil CO2 fluxes and belowground productivity. Girdling birches reduced total soil CO2 efflux in the peak growing season by 53%, which is double the expected amount, given that trees contribute only half of the total leaf area in the forest. Root and mycorrhizal mycelial production also decreased substantially. At peak season, willow shrubs contributed 38% to soil CO2 efflux in their patches. Our findings indicate that C, recently fixed by trees and tall shrubs, makes a substantial contribution to soil respiration. It is critically important that these processes are taken into consideration in the context of a greening arctic because productivity and ecosystem C sequestration are not synonymous.

The Arctic Plant Aboveground Biomass Synthesis Dataset.

Plant biomass is a fundamental ecosystem attribute that is sensitive to rapid climatic changes occurring in the Arctic. Nevertheless, measuring plant biomass in the Arctic is logistically challenging and resource intensive. Lack of accessible field data hinders efforts to understand the amount, composition, distribution, and changes in plant biomass in these northern ecosystems. Here, we present The Arctic plant aboveground biomass synthesis dataset, which includes field measurements of lichen, bryophyte, herb, shrub, and/or tree aboveground biomass (g m-2) on 2,327 sample plots from 636 field sites in seven countries. We created the synthesis dataset by assembling and harmonizing 32 individual datasets. Aboveground biomass was primarily quantified by harvesting sample plots during mid- to late-summer, though tree and often tall shrub biomass were quantified using surveys and allometric models. Each biomass measurement is associated with metadata including sample date, location, method, data source, and other information. This unique dataset can be leveraged to monitor, map, and model plant biomass across the rapidly warming Arctic.

UAV reveals substantial but heterogeneous effects of herbivores on Arctic vegetation.

Understanding how herbivores shape plant biomass and distribution is a core challenge in ecology. Yet, the lack of suitable remote sensing technology limits our knowledge of temporal and spatial impacts of mammal herbivores in the Earth system. The regular interannual density fluctuations of voles and lemmings are exceptional with their large reduction of plant biomass in Arctic landscapes during peak years (12-24%) as previously shown at large spatial scales using satellites. This provides evidence that herbivores are important drivers of observed global changes in vegetation productivity. Here, we use a novel approach with repeated unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) flights, to map vegetation impact by rodents, indicating that many important aspects of vegetation dynamics otherwise hidden by the coarse resolution of satellite images, including plant-herbivore interactions, can be revealed using UAVs. We quantify areas impacted by rodents at four complex Arctic landscapes with very high spatial resolution UAV imagery to get a new perspective on how herbivores shape Arctic ecosystems. The area impacted by voles and lemmings is indeed substantial, larger at higher altitude tundra environments, varies between habitats depending on local snow cover and plant community composition, and is heterogeneous even within habitats at submeter scales. Coupling this with spectral reflectance of vegetation (NDVI), we can show that the impact on central ecosystem properties like GPP and biomass is stronger than currently accounted for in Arctic ecosystems. As an emerging technology, UAVs will allow us to better disentangle important information on how herbivores maintain spatial heterogeneity, function and diversity in natural ecosystems.

Drivers of dissolved organic carbon export in a subarctic catchment: Importance of microbial decomposition, sorption-desorption, peatland and lateral flow.

Tundra soils account for 50% of global stocks of soil organic carbon (SOC), and it is expected that the amplified climate warming in high latitude could cause loss of this SOC through decomposition. Decomposed SOC could become hydrologically accessible, which increase downstream dissolved organic carbon (DOC) export and subsequent carbon release to the atmosphere, constituting a positive feedback to climate warming. However, DOC export is often neglected in ecosystem models. In this paper, we incorporate processes related to DOC production, mineralization, diffusion, sorption-desorption, and leaching into a customized arctic version of the dynamic ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS in order to mechanistically model catchment DOC export, and to link this flux to other ecosystem processes. The extended LPJ-GUESS is compared to observed DOC export at Stordalen catchment in northern Sweden. Vegetation communities include flood-tolerant graminoids (Eriophorum) and Sphagnum moss, birch forest and dwarf shrub communities. The processes, sorption-desorption and microbial decomposition (DOC production and mineralization) are found to contribute most to the variance in DOC export based on a detailed variance-based Sobol sensitivity analysis (SA) at grid cell-level. Catchment-level SA shows that the highest mean DOC exports come from the Eriophorum peatland (fen). A comparison with observations shows that the model captures the seasonality of DOC fluxes. Two catchment simulations, one without water lateral routing and one without peatland processes, were compared with the catchment simulations with all processes. The comparison showed that the current implementation of catchment lateral flow and peatland processes in LPJ-GUESS are essential to capture catchment-level DOC dynamics and indicate the model is at an appropriate level of complexity to represent the main mechanism of DOC dynamics in soils. The extended model provides a new tool to investigate potential interactions among climate change, vegetation dynamics, soil hydrology and DOC dynamics at both stand-alone to catchment scales.