Prognostic factors in patients admitted to an urban teaching hospital with COVID-19 infection.

BACKGROUND: Severe COVID-19 infection results in a systemic inflammatory response (SIRS). This SIRS response shares similarities to the changes observed during the peri-operative period that are recognised to be associated with the development of multiple organ failure. METHODS: Electronic patient records for patients who were admitted to an urban teaching hospital during the initial 7-week period of the COVID-19 pandemic in Glasgow, U.K. (17th March 2020-1st May 2020) were examined for routine clinical, laboratory and clinical outcome data. Age, sex, BMI and documented evidence of COVID-19 infection at time of discharge or death certification were considered minimal criteria for inclusion. RESULTS: Of the 224 patients who fulfilled the criteria for inclusion, 52 (23%) had died at 30-days following admission. COVID-19 related respiratory failure (75%) and multiorgan failure (12%) were the commonest causes of death recorded. Age ≥ 70 years (p < 0.001), past medical history of cognitive impairment (p ≤ 0.001), previous delirium (p < 0.001), clinical frailty score > 3 (p < 0.001), hypertension (p < 0.05), heart failure (p < 0.01), national early warning score (NEWS) > 4 (p < 0.01), positive CXR (p < 0.01), and subsequent positive COVID-19 swab (p ≤ 0.001) were associated with 30-day mortality. CRP > 80 mg/L (p < 0.05), albumin < 35 g/L (p < 0.05), peri-operative Glasgow Prognostic Score (poGPS) (p < 0.05), lymphocytes < 1.5 109/l (p < 0.05), neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (p ≤ 0.001), haematocrit (< 0.40 L/L (male)/ < 0.37 L/L (female)) (p ≤ 0.01), urea > 7.5 mmol/L (p < 0.001), creatinine > 130 mmol/L (p < 0.05) and elevated urea: albumin ratio (< 0.001) were also associated with 30-day mortality. On multivariate analysis, age ≥ 70 years (O.R. 3.9, 95% C.I. 1.4-8.2, p < 0.001), past medical history of heart failure (O.R. 3.3, 95% C.I. 1.2-19.3, p < 0.05), NEWS > 4 (O.R. 2.4, 95% C.I. 1.1-4.4, p < 0.05), positive initial CXR (O.R. 0.4, 95% C.I. 0.2-0.9, p < 0.05) and poGPS (O.R. 2.3, 95% C.I. 1.1-4.4, p < 0.05) remained independently associated with 30-day mortality. Among those patients who tested PCR COVID-19 positive (n = 122), age ≥ 70 years (O.R. 4.7, 95% C.I. 2.0-11.3, p < 0.001), past medical history of heart failure (O.R. 4.4, 95% C.I. 1.2-20.5, p < 0.05) and poGPS (O.R. 2.4, 95% C.I. 1.1-5.1, p < 0.05) remained independently associated with 30-days mortality. CONCLUSION: Age ≥ 70 years and severe systemic inflammation as measured by the peri-operative Glasgow Prognostic Score are independently associated with 30-day mortality among patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 infection.

Longitudinal Changes in CT Body Composition in Patients Undergoing Surgery for Colorectal Cancer and Associations With Peri-Operative Clinicopathological Characteristics.

There is evidence for the direct association between body composition, the magnitude of the systemic inflammatory response, and outcomes in patients with colorectal cancer. Patients with a primary operable disease with and without follow-up CT scans were examined in this study. CT scans were used to define the presence and changes in subcutaneous fat, visceral fat, skeletal muscle mass, and skeletal muscle density (SMD). In total, 804 patients had follow-up scans and 83 patients did not. Furthermore, 783 (97%) patients with follow-up scans and 60 (72%) patients without follow-up scans were alive at 1 year. Patients with follow-up scans were younger (p < 0.001), had a lower American Society of Anaesthesiology Grade (p < 0.01), underwent a laparoscopic surgery (p < 0.05), had a higher BMI (p < 0.05), a higher skeletal muscle index (SMI) (p < 0.01), a higher SMD (p < 0.01), and a better 1-year survival (p < 0.001). Overall only 20% of the patients showed changes in their SMI (n = 161) and an even lower percentage of patients showed relative changes of 10% (n = 82) or more. In conclusion, over the period of ~12 months, a low-skeletal muscle mass was associated with a systemic inflammatory response and was largely maintained following surgical resection.

The systemic inflammatory response and clinicopathological characteristics in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 infection: Comparison of 2 consecutive cohorts.

BACKGROUND: In order to manage the COVID-19 systemic inflammatory response, it is important to identify clinicopathological characteristics across multiple cohorts. METHODS: The aim of the present study was to compare the 4C mortality score, other measures of the systemic inflammatory response and clinicopathological characteristics in two consecutive cohorts of patients on admission with COVID-19. Electronic patient records for 2 consecutive cohorts of patients admitted to two urban teaching hospitals with COVID-19 during two 7-week periods of the COVID-19 pandemic in Glasgow, U.K. (cohort 1: 17/3/2020-1/5/2020) and (cohort 2: 18/5/2020-6/7/2020) were examined for routine clinical, laboratory and clinical outcome data. RESULTS: Compared with cohort 1, cohort 2 were older (p<0.001), more likely to be female (p<0.05) and have less independent living circumstances (p<0.001). More patients in cohort 2 were PCR positive, CXR negative (both p<0.001) and had low serum albumin concentrations (p<0.001). 30-day mortality was similar between both cohorts (23% and 22%). In cohort 2, age >70 (p<0.05), male gender (p<0.05), COPD (p<0.05), cognitive impairment (p<0.05), frailty (p<0.001), delirium (p = 0.001), CRP>150mg/L (p<0.05), albumin <30 g/L (p<0.01), elevated perioperative Glasgow Prognostic Score (p<0.05), elevated neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (p<0.001), low haematocrit (p<0.01), elevated PT (p<0.05), sodium <133 mmol/L (p<0.01) elevated urea (p<0.001), creatinine (p<0.001), glucose (p<0.05) and lactate (p<0.001) and the 4C score (p<0.001) were associated with 30-day mortality. In multivariate analysis, greater frailty (CFS>3) (OR 11.3, 95% C.I. 2.3-96.7, p<0.05), low albumin (<30g/L) (OR 2.5, 95% C.I. 1.0-6.2, p<0.05), high NLR (≥3) (OR 2.2, 95% C.I. 1.5-4.5, p<0.05) and the 4C score (OR 2.4, 95% C.I. 1.0-5.6, p<0.05) remained independently associated with 30-day mortality. CONCLUSION: In addition to the 4C mortality score, frailty score and a low albumin were strongly independently associated with 30-day mortality in two consecutive cohorts of patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov: NCT04484545.

Comparison of the prognostic value of ECOG-PS, mGPS and BMI/WL: Implications for a clinically important framework in the assessment and treatment of advanced cancer.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The systemic inflammatory response is associated with the loss of lean tissue, anorexia, weakness, fatigue and reduced survival in patients with advanced cancer and therefore is important in the definition of cancer cachexia. The aim of the present study was to carry out a direct comparison of the prognostic value of Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status (ECOG-PS), modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS) and Body Mass Index/Weight Loss Grade (BMI/WL grade) in patients with advanced cancer. METHOD: All data were collected prospectively across 18 sites in the UK and Ireland. Patient's age, sex, ECOG-PS, mGPS and BMI/WL grade were recorded, as were details of underlying disease including metastases. Survival data were analysed using univariate and multivariate Cox regression. RESULTS: A total of 730 patients were assessed. The majority of patients were male (53%), over 65 years of age (56%), had an ECOG-PS>0/1 (56%), mGPS≥1 (56%), BMI≥25 (51%), <2.5% weight loss (57%) and had metastatic disease (86%). On multivariate cox regression analysis ECOG-PS (HR 1.61 95%CI 1.42-1.83, p < 0.001), mGPS (HR 1.53, 95%CI 1.39-1.69, p < 0.001) and BMI/WL grade (HR 1.41, 95%CI 1.25-1.60, p < 0.001) remained independently associated with overall survival. In patients with a BMI/WL grade 0/1 both ECOG and mGPS remained independently associated with overall survival. CONCLUSION: The ECOG/mGPS framework may form the basis of risk stratification of survival in patients with advanced cancer.