Uncovering the treatable burden of severe aortic stenosis in Australia: current and future projections within an ageing population.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to address the paucity of information describing the treatable burden of disease associated with severe aortic stenosis (AS) within Australia's ageing population. METHODS: A contemporary model of the population prevalence of symptomatic, severe AS and treatment pathways in Europe and North America was applied to the 2019 Australian population aged ≥ 55 years (7 million people) on an age-specific basis. Applying Australian-specific data, these estimates were used to further calculate the total number of associated deaths and incident cases of severe AS per annum. RESULTS: Based on an overall point prevalence of 1.48 % among those aged ≥ 55 years, we estimate that a minimum of 97,000 Australians are living with severe AS. With a 2-fold increased risk of mortality without undergoing aortic valve replacement (AVR), more than half of these individuals (∼56,000) will die within 5-years. From a clinical management perspective, among those with concurrent symptoms (68.3 %, 66,500 [95 % CI 59,000-74,000] cases) more than half (58.4 %, 38,800 [95 % CI 35,700 - 42,000] cases) would be potentially considered for surgical AVR (SAVR) - comprising 2,400, 5,400 and 31,000 cases assessed as high-, medium- or low peri-operative mortality risk, respectively. A further 17,000/27,700 (41.6 % [95 % CI 11,600 - 22,600]) of such individuals would be potentially considered to a transthoracic AVR (TAVR). During the subsequent 5-year period (2020-2024), each year, we estimate an additional 9,300 Australians aged ≥ 60 years will subsequently develop severe AS (6,300 of whom will experience concurrent symptoms). Of these symptomatic cases, an estimated 3,700 and 1,600 cases/annum, will be potentially suitable for SAVR and TAVR, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest there is likely to be a substantive burden of individuals living with severe AS in Australia. Many of these cases may not have been diagnosed and/or received appropriate treatment (based on the evidence-based application of SAVR and TAVR) to reduce their high-risk of subsequent mortality.

Prevalence and Cost of Managing Paediatric Cardiac Disease in Queensland.

BACKGROUND: There is a paucity of contemporary information regarding the prevalence and related health care expenditure of the most common cardiac conditions in Australian children, including congenital heart disease (CHD). METHODS: The 10 most common cardiac conditions managed by Queensland Paediatric Cardiac Service during 2014-2015 were identified from an electronic database: ventricular septal defect (VSD), pulmonary stenosis, aortic stenosis, tetralogy of Fallot, atrioventricular septal defect, transposition, Ebstein's anomaly, long QT syndrome, dilated cardiomyopathy, and rheumatic carditis. Demographic data, clinic attendance, investigational procedures, and therapeutic interventions were extracted from the electronic health records to derive indicative population estimates and direct health care expenditure relating to CHD. RESULTS: A total of 2,519 patients diagnosed with the 10 target conditions were being actively managed, including 456 (18.1%) new-born and 787 prevalent cases (2.5/1,000 population) aged <5 years. A total of 12,180 (4.8/case) investigations were performed (6,169 echocardiographic and 279 cardiac catheterisation procedures) costing $2.25 million/annum. A further 5,326 clinic visits (2.1/case, 22% regional) were conducted at a cost of $550,000/annum. A combined total of 804 catheter-based interventions and surgical procedures were performed in 300 cases (11.9%) at a cost of $13.6 million/annum. VSD (38.6% of cases) was the single greatest contributor ($5.1 million/annum) to total combined direct health care costs of $13.6 million/annum for the 2,519 patients. CONCLUSIONS: These pilot data indicate a significant patient population and health care burden imposed by CHD in Queensland. Future initiatives to better quantify this burden, from an individual to health system perspective, are urgently needed.