Bayesian Prediction of Multivariate Ecology from Phenotypic Data Yields New Insights into the Diets of Extant and Extinct Taxa.

AbstractMorphology often reflects ecology, enabling the prediction of ecological roles for taxa that lack direct observations, such as fossils. In comparative analyses, ecological traits, like diet, are often treated as categorical, which may aid prediction and simplify analyses but ignores the multivariate nature of ecological niches. Furthermore, methods for quantifying and predicting multivariate ecology remain rare. Here, we ranked the relative importance of 13 food items for a sample of 88 extant carnivoran mammals and then used Bayesian multilevel modeling to assess whether those rankings could be predicted from dental morphology and body size. Traditional diet categories fail to capture the true multivariate nature of carnivoran diets, but Bayesian regression models derived from living taxa have good predictive accuracy for importance ranks. Using our models to predict the importance of individual food items, the multivariate dietary niche, and the nearest extant analogs for a set of data-deficient extant and extinct carnivoran species confirms long-standing ideas for some taxa but yields new insights into the fundamental dietary niches of others. Our approach provides a promising alternative to traditional dietary classifications. Importantly, this approach need not be limited to diet but serves as a general framework for predicting multivariate ecology from phenotypic traits.

The Effects of Foraging Ecology and Allometry on Avian Skull Shape Vary across Levels of Phylogeny.

AbstractAvian skull shape diversity is classically thought to result from selection for structures that are well adapted for distinct ecological functions, but recent work has suggested that allometry is the dominant contributor to avian morphological diversity. If true, this hypothesis would overturn much conventional wisdom regarding the importance of form-function relationships in adaptive radiations, but it is possible that these results are biased by the low taxonomic levels of the clades that have been studied. Using 3D morphometric data from the skulls of a relatively old and ecologically diverse order of birds, the Charadriiformes (shorebirds and relatives), we found that foraging ecology explains more than two-thirds of the variation in skull shape across the clade. However, we also found support for the hypothesis that skull allometry evolves, contributing more to shape variation at the level of the family than the order. Allometry may provide an important source of shape variation on which selection can act over short timescales, but its potential to evolve complicates generalizations between clades. Foraging ecology remains a better predictor of avian skull shape over macroevolutionary timescales.

Extant species fail to estimate ancestral geographical ranges at older nodes in primate phylogeny.

A clade's evolutionary history is shaped, in part, by geographical range expansion, sweepstakes dispersal and local extinction. A rigorous understanding of historical biogeography may therefore yield insights into macroevolutionary dynamics such as adaptive radiation. Modern historical biogeographic analyses typically fit statistical models to molecular phylogenies, but it remains unclear whether extant species provide sufficient signal or if well-sampled phylogenies of extinct and extant taxa are necessary to produce meaningful estimates of past ranges. We investigated the historical biogeography of Primates and their euarchontan relatives using a novel meta-analytical phylogeny of over 900 extant (n= 419) and extinct (n = 483) species spanning their entire evolutionary history. Ancestral range estimates for young nodes were largely congruent with those derived from molecular phylogeny. However, node age exerts a significant effect on ancestral range estimate congruence, and the probability of congruent inference dropped below 0.5 for nodes older than the late Eocene, corresponding to the origins of higher-level clades. Discordance was not observed in analyses of extinct taxa alone. Fossils are essential for robust ancestral range inference and biogeographic analyses of extant clades originating in the deep past should be viewed with scepticism without them.

A Total-Group Phylogenetic Metatree for Cetacea and the Importance of Fossil Data in Diversification Analyses.

Phylogenetic trees provide a powerful framework for testing macroevolutionary hypotheses, but it is becoming increasingly apparent that inferences derived from extant species alone can be highly misleading. Trees incorporating living and extinct taxa are needed to address fundamental questions about the origins of diversity and disparity but it has proved challenging to generate robust, species-rich phylogenies that include large numbers of fossil taxa. As a result, most studies of diversification dynamics continue to rely on molecular phylogenies. Here, we extend and apply a recently developed meta-analytic approach for synthesizing previously published phylogenetic studies to infer a well-resolved set of species level, time-scaled phylogenetic hypotheses for extinct and extant cetaceans (whales, dolphins, and allies). Our trees extend sampling from the $\sim 90$ extant species to over 500 living and extinct species, and therefore allow for more robust inference of macroevolutionary dynamics. While the diversification scenarios, we recover are broadly concordant with those inferred from molecular phylogenies they differ in critical ways, notably in the relative contributions of extinction and speciation rate shifts in driving rapid radiations. The metatree approach provides the most immediate route for generating higher level phylogenies of extinct taxa and opens the door to re-evaluation of macroevolutionary hypotheses derived only from extant taxa.[Extinction; macroevolution; matrix representation with parsimony; morphology; supertree.].

Empirical and Methodological Challenges to the Model-Based Inference of Diversification Rates in Extinct Clades.

Changes in speciation and extinction rates are key to the dynamics of clade diversification, but attempts to infer them from phylogenies of extant species face challenges. Methods capable of synthesizing information from extant and fossil species have yielded novel insights into diversification rate variation through time, but little is known about their behavior when analyzing entirely extinct clades. Here, we use empirical and simulated data to assess how two popular methods, PyRate and Fossil BAMM, perform in this setting. We inferred the first tip-dated trees for ornithischian dinosaurs and combined them with fossil occurrence data to test whether the clade underwent an end-Cretaceous decline. We then simulated phylogenies and fossil records under empirical constraints to determine whether macroevolutionary and preservation rates can be teased apart under paleobiologically realistic conditions. We obtained discordant inferences about ornithischian macroevolution including a long-term speciation rate decline (BAMM), mostly flat rates with a steep diversification drop (PyRate) or without one (BAMM), and episodes of implausibly accelerated speciation and extinction (PyRate). Simulations revealed little to no conflation between speciation and preservation, but yielded spuriously correlated speciation and extinction estimates while time-smearing tree-wide shifts (BAMM) or overestimating their number (PyRate). Our results indicate that the small phylogenetic data sets available to vertebrate paleontologists and the assumptions made by current model-based methods combine to yield potentially unreliable inferences about the diversification of extinct clades. We provide guidelines for interpreting the results of the existing approaches in light of their limitations and suggest how the latter may be mitigated. [BAMM; diversification; fossils; macroevolutionary rates; Ornithischia; PyRate.].

Evolutionary history of quadrupedal walking gaits shows mammalian release from locomotor constraint.

Vertebrates employ an impressive range of strategies for coordinating their limb movements while walking. Although this gait variation has been quantified and hypotheses for its origins tested in select tetrapod lineages, a comprehensive understanding of gait evolution in a macroevolutionary context is currently lacking. We used freely available internet videos to nearly double the number of species with quantitative gait data, and used phylogenetic comparative methods to test key hypotheses about symmetrical gait origin and evolution. We find strong support for an ancestral lateral-sequence diagonal-couplet gait in quadrupedal gnathostomes, and this mode is remarkably conserved throughout tetrapod phylogeny. Evolutionary rate analyses show that mammals overcame this ancestral constraint, resulting in a greater range of phase values than any other tetrapod lineage. Diagonal-sequence diagonal-couplet gaits are significantly associated with arboreality in mammals, though this relationship is not recovered for other tetrapod lineages. Notably, the lateral-sequence lateral-couplet gait, unique to mammals among extant tetrapods, is not associated with any traditional explanations. The complex drivers of gait diversification in mammals remain unclear, but our analyses suggest that their success was due, in part, to release from a locomotor constraint that has probably persisted in other extant tetrapod lineages for over 375 Myr.

Disparities in the analysis of morphological disparity.

Analyses of morphological disparity have been used to characterize and investigate the evolution of variation in the anatomy, function and ecology of organisms since the 1980s. While a diversity of methods have been employed, it is unclear whether they provide equivalent insights. Here, we review the most commonly used approaches for characterizing and analysing morphological disparity, all of which have associated limitations that, if ignored, can lead to misinterpretation. We propose best practice guidelines for disparity analyses, while noting that there can be no 'one-size-fits-all' approach. The available tools should always be used in the context of a specific biological question that will determine data and method selection at every stage of the analysis.

Lineage Diversity and Size Disparity in Musteloidea: Testing Patterns of Adaptive Radiation Using Molecular and Fossil-Based Methods.

Adaptive radiation is hypothesized to be a primary mechanism that drives the remarkable species diversity and morphological disparity across the Tree of Life. Tests for adaptive radiation in extant taxa are traditionally estimated from calibrated molecular phylogenies with little input from extinct taxa. With 85 putative species in 33 genera and over 400 described extinct species, the carnivoran superfamily Musteloidea is a prime candidate to investigate patterns of adaptive radiation using both extant- and fossil-based macroevolutionary methods. The species diversity and equally impressive ecological and phenotypic diversity found across Musteloidea is often attributed to two adaptive radiations coinciding with two major climate events, the Eocene-Oligocene transition and the Mid-Miocene Climate Transition. Here, we compiled a novel time-scaled phylogeny for 88% of extant musteloids and used it as a framework for testing the predictions of adaptive radiation hypotheses with respect to rates of lineage diversification and phenotypic evolution. Contrary to expectations, we found no evidence for rapid bursts of lineage diversification at the origin of Musteloidea, and further analyses of lineage diversification rates using molecular and fossil-based methods did not find associations between rates of lineage diversification and the Eocene-Oligocene transition or Mid-Miocene Climate Transition as previously hypothesized. Rather, we found support for decoupled diversification dynamics driven by increased clade carrying capacity in the branches leading to a subclade of elongate mustelids. Supporting decoupled diversification dynamics between the subclade of elongate mustelids and the ancestral musteloid regime is our finding of increased rates of body length evolution, but not body mass evolution, within the decoupled mustelid subclade. The lack of correspondence in rates of body mass and length evolution suggest that phenotypic evolutionary rates under a single morphological metric, even one as influential as mass, may not capture the evolution of diversity in clades that exhibit elongate body shapes. The discordance in evolutionary rates between body length and body mass along with evidence of decoupled diversification dynamics suggests that body elongation might be an innovation for the exploitation of novel Mid-Miocene resources, resulting in the radiation of some musteloids.

Iterative adaptive radiations of fossil canids show no evidence for diversity-dependent trait evolution.

A long-standing hypothesis in adaptive radiation theory is that ecological opportunity constrains rates of phenotypic evolution, generating a burst of morphological disparity early in clade history. Empirical support for the early burst model is rare in comparative data, however. One possible reason for this lack of support is that most phylogenetic tests have focused on extant clades, neglecting information from fossil taxa. Here, I test for the expected signature of adaptive radiation using the outstanding 40-My fossil record of North American canids. Models implying time- and diversity-dependent rates of morphological evolution are strongly rejected for two ecologically important traits, body size and grinding area of the molar teeth. Instead, Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes implying repeated, and sometimes rapid, attraction to distinct dietary adaptive peaks receive substantial support. Diversity-dependent rates of morphological evolution seem uncommon in clades, such as canids, that exhibit a pattern of replicated adaptive radiation. Instead, these clades might best be thought of as deterministic radiations in constrained Simpsonian subzones of a major adaptive zone. Support for adaptive peak models may be diagnostic of subzonal radiations. It remains to be seen whether early burst or ecological opportunity models can explain broader adaptive radiations, such as the evolution of higher taxa.

Independent evolution of baleen whale gigantism linked to Plio-Pleistocene ocean dynamics.

Vertebrates have evolved to gigantic sizes repeatedly over the past 250 Myr, reaching their extreme in today's baleen whales (Mysticeti). Hypotheses for the evolution of exceptionally large size in mysticetes range from niche partitioning to predator avoidance, but there has been no quantitative examination of body size evolutionary dynamics in this clade and it remains unclear when, why or how gigantism evolved. By fitting phylogenetic macroevolutionary models to a dataset consisting of living and extinct species, we show that mysticetes underwent a clade-wide shift in their mode of body size evolution during the Plio-Pleistocene. This transition, from Brownian motion-like dynamics to a trended random walk towards larger size, is temporally linked to the onset of seasonally intensified upwelling along coastal ecosystems. High prey densities resulting from wind-driven upwelling, rather than abundant resources alone, are the primary determinant of efficient foraging in extant mysticetes and Late Pliocene changes in ocean dynamics may have provided an ecological pathway to gigantism in multiple independent lineages.

geiger v2.0: an expanded suite of methods for fitting macroevolutionary models to phylogenetic trees.

SUMMARY: Phylogenetic comparative methods are essential for addressing evolutionary hypotheses with interspecific data. The scale and scope of such data have increased dramatically in the past few years. Many existing approaches are either computationally infeasible or inappropriate for data of this size. To address both of these problems, we present geiger v2.0, a complete overhaul of the popular R package geiger. We have reimplemented existing methods with more efficient algorithms and have developed several new approaches for accomodating heterogeneous models and data types. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: This R package is available on the CRAN repository http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/geiger/. All source code is also available on github http://github.com/mwpennell/geiger-v2. geiger v2.0 depends on the ape package. CONTACT: mwpennell@gmail.com SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Robust regression and posterior predictive simulation increase power to detect early bursts of trait evolution.

A central prediction of much theory on adaptive radiations is that traits should evolve rapidly during the early stages of a clade's history and subsequently slowdown in rate as niches become saturated--a so-called "Early Burst." Although a common pattern in the fossil record, evidence for early bursts of trait evolution in phylogenetic comparative data has been equivocal at best. We show here that this may not necessarily be due to the absence of this pattern in nature. Rather, commonly used methods to infer its presence perform poorly when when the strength of the burst--the rate at which phenotypic evolution declines--is small, and when some morphological convergence is present within the clade. We present two modifications to existing comparative methods that allow greater power to detect early bursts in simulated datasets. First, we develop posterior predictive simulation approaches and show that they outperform maximum likelihood approaches at identifying early bursts at moderate strength. Second, we use a robust regression procedure that allows for the identification and down-weighting of convergent taxa, leading to moderate increases in method performance. We demonstrate the utility and power of these approach by investigating the evolution of body size in cetaceans. Model fitting using maximum likelihood is equivocal with regards the mode of cetacean body size evolution. However, posterior predictive simulation combined with a robust node height test return low support for Brownian motion or rate shift models, but not the early burst model. While the jury is still out on whether early bursts are actually common in nature, our approach will hopefully facilitate more robust testing of this hypothesis. We advocate the adoption of similar posterior predictive approaches to improve the fit and to assess the adequacy of macroevolutionary models in general.

Clade age and species richness are decoupled across the eukaryotic tree of life.

Explaining the dramatic variation in species richness across the tree of life remains a key challenge in evolutionary biology. At the largest phylogenetic scales, the extreme heterogeneity in species richness observed among different groups of organisms is almost certainly a function of many complex and interdependent factors. However, the most fundamental expectation in macroevolutionary studies is simply that species richness in extant clades should be correlated with clade age: all things being equal, older clades will have had more time for diversity to accumulate than younger clades. Here, we test the relationship between stem clade age and species richness across 1,397 major clades of multicellular eukaryotes that collectively account for more than 1.2 million described species. We find no evidence that clade age predicts species richness at this scale. We demonstrate that this decoupling of age and richness is unlikely to result from variation in net diversification rates among clades. At the largest phylogenetic scales, contemporary patterns of species richness are inconsistent with unbounded diversity increase through time. These results imply that a fundamentally different interpretative paradigm may be needed in the study of phylogenetic diversity patterns in many groups of organisms.

Himalayan fossils of the oldest known pantherine establish ancient origin of big cats.

Pantherine felids ('big cats') include the largest living cats, apex predators in their respective ecosystems. They are also the earliest diverging living cat lineage, and thus are important for understanding the evolution of all subsequent felid groups. Although the oldest pantherine fossils occur in Africa, molecular phylogenies point to Asia as their region of origin. This paradox cannot be reconciled using current knowledge, mainly because early big cat fossils are exceedingly rare and fragmentary. Here, we report the discovery of a fossil pantherine from the Tibetan Himalaya, with an age of Late Miocene-Early Pliocene, replacing African records as the oldest pantherine. A 'total evidence' phylogenetic analysis of pantherines indicates that the new cat is closely related to the snow leopard and exhibits intermediate characteristics on the evolutionary line to the largest cats. Historical biogeographic models provide robust support for the Asian origin of pantherines. The combined analyses indicate that 75% of the divergence events in the pantherine lineage extended back to the Miocene, up to 7 Myr earlier than previously estimated. The deeper evolutionary origin of big cats revealed by the new fossils and analyses indicate a close association between Tibetan Plateau uplift and diversification of the earliest living cats.

Charting the course of pinniped evolution: insights from molecular phylogeny and fossil record integration.

Pinnipeds (seals, sea lions, walruses, and their fossil relatives) are one of the most successful mammalian clades to live in the oceans. Despite a well-resolved molecular phylogeny and a global fossil record, a complete understanding of their macroevolutionary dynamics remains hampered by a lack of formal analyses that combine these 2 rich sources of information. We used a meta-analytic approach to infer the most densely sampled pinniped phylogeny to date (36 recent and 93 fossil taxa) and used phylogenetic paleobiological methods to study their diversification dynamics and biogeographic history. Pinnipeds mostly diversified at constant rates. Walruses, however, experienced rapid turnover in which extinction rates ultimately exceeded speciation rates from 12 to 6 Ma, possibly due to changing sea levels and/or competition with otariids (eared seals). Historical biogeographic analyses, including fossil data, allowed us to confidently identify the North Pacific and the North Atlantic (plus or minus Paratethys) as the ancestral ranges of Otarioidea (eared seals + walrus) and crown phocids (earless seals), respectively. Yet, despite the novel addition of stem pan-pinniped taxa, the region of origin for Pan-Pinnipedia remained ambiguous. These results suggest further avenues of study in pinnipeds and provide a framework for investigating other groups with substantial extinct and extant diversity.

Developing a core outcome set for the health outcomes for children and adults with congenital oesophageal atresia and/or tracheo-oesophageal fistula: OCELOT task group study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Heterogeneity in reported outcomes of infants with oesophageal atresia (OA) with or without tracheo-oesophageal fistula (TOF) prevents effective data pooling. Core outcome sets (COS) have been developed for many conditions to standardise outcome reporting, facilitate meta-analysis and improve the relevance of research for patients and families. Our aim is to develop an internationally-agreed, comprehensive COS for OA-TOF, relevant from birth through to transition and adulthood. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A long list of outcomes will be generated using (1) a systematic review of existing studies on OA-TOF and (2) qualitative research with children (patients), adults (patients) and families involving focus groups, semistructured interviews and self-reported outcome activity packs. A two-phase Delphi survey will then be completed by four key stakeholder groups: (1) patients (paediatric and adult); (2) families; (3) healthcare professionals; and (4) researchers. Phase I will include stakeholders individually rating the importance and relevance of each long-listed outcome using a 9-point Likert scale, with the option to suggest additional outcomes not already included. During phase II, stakeholders will review summarised results from phase I relative to their own initial score and then will be asked to rescore the outcome based on this information. Responses from phase II will be summarised using descriptive statistics and a predefined definition of consensus for inclusion or exclusion of outcomes. Following the Delphi process, stakeholder experts will be invited to review data at a consensus meeting and agree on a COS for OA-TOF. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval was sought through the Health Research Authority via the Integrated Research Application System, registration no. 297026. However, approval was deemed not to be required, so study sponsorship and oversight were provided by Alder Hey Children's NHS Foundation Trust. The study has been prospectively registered with the COMET Initiative. The study will be published in an open access forum.

Iterative ecological radiation and convergence during the evolutionary history of damselfishes (Pomacentridae).

Coral reef fishes represent one of the most spectacularly diverse assemblages of vertebrates on the planet, but our understanding of their mode of diversification remains limited. Here we test whether the diversity of the damselfishes (Pomacentridae), one of the most species-rich families of reef-associated fishes, was produced by a single or multiple adaptive radiation(s) during their evolutionary history. Tests of the tempo of lineage diversification using a time-calibrated phylogeny including 208 species revealed that crown pomacentrid diversification has not slowed through time as expected under a scenario of a single adaptive radiation resulting from an early burst of diversification. Evolutionary modeling of trophic traits similarly rejected the hypothesis of early among-lineage partitioning of ecologically important phenotypic diversity. Instead, damselfishes are shown to have experienced iterative convergent radiations wherein subclades radiate across similar trophic strategies (i.e., pelagic feeders, benthic feeders, intermediate) and morphologies. Regionalization of coral reefs, competition, and functional constraints may have fueled iterative ecological radiation and convergent evolution of damselfishes. Through the Pomacentridae, we illustrate that radiations may be strongly structured by the nature of the constraints on diversification.