Estimating the impact of alternative programmatic cotrimoxazole strategies on mortality among children born to mothers with HIV: A modelling study.

BACKGROUND: World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines recommend cotrimoxazole prophylaxis for children who are HIV-exposed until infection is excluded and vertical transmission risk has ended. While cotrimoxazole has benefits for children with HIV, there is no mortality benefit for children who are HIV-exposed but uninfected, prompting a review of global guidelines. Here, we model the potential impact of alternative cotrimoxazole strategies on mortality in children who are HIV-exposed. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using a deterministic compartmental model, we estimated mortality in children who are HIV-exposed from 6 weeks to 2 years of age in 4 high-burden countries: Côte d'Ivoire, Mozambique, Uganda, and Zimbabwe. Vertical transmission rates, testing rates, and antiretroviral therapy (ART) uptake were derived from UNAIDS data, trial evidence, and meta-analyses. We explored 6 programmatic strategies: maintaining current recommendations; shorter cotrimoxazole provision for 3, 6, 9, or 12 months; and starting cotrimoxazole only for children diagnosed with HIV. Modelled alternatives to the current strategy increased mortality to varying degrees; countries with high vertical transmission had the greatest mortality. Compared to current recommendations, starting cotrimoxazole only after a positive HIV test had the greatest predicted increase in mortality: Mozambique (961 excess annual deaths; excess mortality 339 per 100,000 HIV-exposed children; risk ratio (RR) 1.06), Uganda (491; 221; RR 1.04), Zimbabwe (352; 260; RR 1.05), and Côte d'Ivoire (125; 322; RR 1.06). Similar effects were observed for 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month strategies. Increased mortality persisted but was attenuated when modelling lower cotrimoxazole uptake, smaller mortality benefits, higher testing coverage, and lower vertical transmission rates. The study is limited by uncertain estimates of cotrimoxazole coverage in programmatic settings; an inability to model increases in mortality arising from antimicrobial resistance due to limited surveillance data in sub-Saharan Africa; and lack of a formal health economic analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Changing current guidelines from universal cotrimoxazole provision for children who are HIV-exposed increased predicted mortality across the 4 modelled high-burden countries, depending on test-to-treat cascade coverage and vertical transmission rates. These findings can help inform policymaker deliberations on cotrimoxazole strategies, recognising that the risks and benefits differ across settings.

Multicentre service evaluation of injectable cabotegravir and rilpivirine delivery and outcomes across 12 UK clinics (SHARE LAI-net).

INTRODUCTION: Long-acting injectable cabotegravir + rilpivirine (CAB + RPV LAI) was approved for use in virally suppressed adults in the England and Wales national health service in November 2021. We describe a service evaluation of delivery processes and outcomes in 12 clinics. METHODS: Centres populated a database using information from local policies and clinical records. Services were asked to describe approval processes, clinic pathways, and adherence to national guidelines. Additional data were collected on reasons for regimen choice, treatment discontinuations, and management of viraemia. RESULTS: In total, 518 adults from 12 clinics were approved for CAB + RPV LAI between February 2022 and December 2023. Of the 518 people approved for CAB + RPV LAI, 423 received at least one injection. Median duration on CAB + RPV was 7.5 months (interquartile range 3.7-11.3). In total, 97% of injections were administered within the ±7-day window. Virological failure occurred in 0.7%, and 6% discontinued CAB + RPV. CONCLUSION: In this large UK-based cohort, robust approval processes and clinic protocols facilitated on-time injections and low rates of both discontinuation and virological failure.

Youth adversity and trajectories of depression/anxiety symptoms in adolescence in the context of intersectionality in the United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND: Youth adversity is associated with persistence of depression and anxiety symptoms. This association may be greater for disadvantaged societal groups (such as females) compared with advantaged groups (e.g. males). Given that persistent symptoms are observed across a range of disadvantaged, minoritized, and neurodivergent groups (e.g. low compared with high socio-economic status [SES]), the intersection of individual characteristics may be an important moderator of inequality. METHODS: Data from HeadStart Cornwall (N = 4441) was used to assess the effect of youth adversity on combined symptoms of depression and anxiety (Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire emotional problems subscale) measured at three time-points in 11-14-year-olds. Latent trajectories and regressions were estimated for eight intersectionality profiles (based on gender, SES, and hyperactivity/inattention), and moderating effects of the individual characteristics and their intersections were estimated. RESULTS: Youth adversity was associated with higher average depression/anxiety symptoms at baseline (11-12-years) across all intersectionality profiles. The magnitude of effects differed across profiles, with suggestive evidence for a moderating effect of youth adversity on change over time in depression/anxiety symptoms attributable to the intersection between (i) gender and SES; and (ii) gender, SES, and hyperactivity/inattention. CONCLUSIONS: The detrimental effects of youth adversity pervade across intersectionality profiles. The extent to which these effects are moderated by intersectionality is discussed in terms of operational factors. The current results provide a platform for further research, which is needed to determine the importance of intersectionality as a moderator of youth adversity on the development of depression and anxiety symptoms in adolescence.

A cross-sectional investigation into the role of intersectionality as a moderator of the relation between youth adversity and adolescent depression/anxiety symptoms in the community.

BACKGROUND: Adolescents exposed to adversity show higher levels of depression and anxiety, with the strongest links seen in socially/societally disadvantaged individuals (e.g., females, low socioeconomic status [SES]), as well as neurodivergent individuals. The intersection of these characteristics may be important for the differential distribution of adversity and mental health problems, though limited findings pertain to the extent to which intersectional effects moderate this association. METHODS: Combined depression/anxiety symptoms were measured using the emotional problems subscale of the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire in 13-14-year-olds in Cornwall, United Kingdom in 2017-2019. In a cross-sectional design (N = 11,707), multiple group structural equation modeling was used to estimate the effects of youth adversity on depression/anxiety symptoms across eight intersectionality profiles (based on gender [female/male], SES [lower/higher], and traits of hyperactivity/inattention [high/low]). Moderation effects of these characteristics and their intersections were estimated. RESULTS: Youth adversity was associated with higher levels of depression/anxiety (compared to an absence of youth adversity), across intersectional profiles. This effect was moderated by gender (stronger in males; ß = 0.22 [0.11, 0.36]), and SES (stronger in higher SES; ß = 0.26 [0.14,0.40]); with indications of moderation attributable to the intersection between gender and hyperactivity/inattention (ß = 0.21 [-0.02,0.44]). CONCLUSIONS: Youth adversity is associated with heightened depression/anxiety across intersectional profiles in 13-14-year-olds. The stronger effects observed for males, and for higher SES, may be interpreted in terms of structural privilege. Preliminary findings suggest that vulnerability and resilience to the effects of youth adversity may partially depend on specific intersectional effects. Importantly, the current results invite further investigation in this emerging line of inquiry.

Tailored psychological intervention for anxiety or depression in COPD (TANDEM): a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The TANDEM multicentre, pragmatic, randomised controlled trial evaluated whether a tailored psychological intervention based on a cognitive behavioural approach for people with COPD and symptoms of anxiety and/or depression improved anxiety or depression compared with usual care (control). METHODS: People with COPD and moderate to very severe airways obstruction and Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale subscale scores indicating mild to moderate anxiety (HADS-A) and/or depression (HADS-D) were randomised 1.25:1 (242 intervention and 181 control). Respiratory health professionals delivered the intervention face-to-face over 6-8 weeks. Co-primary outcomes were HADS-A and HADS-D measured 6 months post-randomisation. Secondary outcomes at 6 and 12 months included: HADS-A and HADS-D (12 months), Beck Depression Inventory II, Beck Anxiety Inventory, St George's Respiratory Questionnaire, social engagement, the EuroQol instrument five-level version (EQ-5D-5L), smoking status, completion of pulmonary rehabilitation, and health and social care resource use. RESULTS: The intervention did not improve anxiety (HADS-A mean difference -0.60, 95% CI -1.40-0.21) or depression (HADS-D mean difference -0.66, 95% CI -1.39-0.07) at 6 months. The intervention did not improve any secondary outcomes at either time-point, nor did it influence completion of pulmonary rehabilitation or healthcare resource use. Deaths in the intervention arm (13/242; 5%) exceeded those in the control arm (3/181; 2%), but none were associated with the intervention. Health economic analysis found the intervention highly unlikely to be cost-effective. CONCLUSION: This trial has shown, beyond reasonable doubt, that this cognitive behavioural intervention delivered by trained and supervised respiratory health professionals does not improve psychological comorbidity in people with advanced COPD and depression or anxiety.

Public understanding and awareness of and response to monkeypox virus outbreak: A cross-sectional survey of the most affected communities in the United Kingdom during the 2022 public health emergency.

OBJECTIVES: Our objective was to examine the public response to public health and media messaging during the human monkeypox virus (MPXV) outbreak in the UK, focusing on at-risk communities. METHODS: A co-produced, cross-sectional survey was administered in June and July 2022 using community social media channels and the Grindr dating app. Basic descriptive statistics, logistic regression, and odds ratio p values are presented. RESULTS: Of 1932 survey respondents, 1750 identified as men, 88 as women, and 64 as gender non-conforming. Sexual identity was described as gay/lesbian/queer (80%), bisexual (12%), heterosexual (4%), and pansexual (2%); 39% were aged <40 years; 71% self-identified as White, 3% as Black, 8% as Asian, 2%as LatinX, and 11% as 'Mixed or Other' heritage groups. In total, 85% were employed and 79% had completed higher education. A total of 7% of respondents identified themselves as living with HIV. Overall, 34% reported limited understanding of public health information, 52% considered themselves at risk, 61% agreed that people with MPXV should isolate for 21 days, 49% reported they would first attend a sexual health clinic if symptomatic, 86% reported they would accept a vaccine, and 59% believed that MPXV originated from animals. The most trusted sources of information were healthcare professionals (37%), official health agencies (29%), and mainstream media (12%). CONCLUSIONS: Vaccine acceptability was very high, yet the understanding and acceptance of public health information varied. Social determinants of health inequalities already shaping the UK landscape risk were compounded in this new emergency. Engagement with structurally disadvantaged members of affected communities and better dissemination of public health messaging by trusted healthcare professionals are essential for the public health response.

Death after surgery among patients with chronic disease: prospective study of routinely collected data in the English NHS.

BACKGROUND: Five million surgeries take place in the NHS each year. Little is known about the prevalence of chronic diseases among these patients, and the association with postoperative outcomes. METHODS: Analysis of routine data from all NHS hospitals in England including patients aged ≥18 yr undergoing non-obstetric surgery between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2015. The primary outcome was death within 90 days after surgery. For each chronic disease, we adjusted for age, sex, presence of other diseases, emergency surgery, and year using logistic regression models. We defined high-risk diseases as those with an adjusted odds ratio (OR) for death ≥2 and report associated 2-yr survival. RESULTS: We included 8 624 611 patients (median age, 53 [36-68] yr), of whom 6 913 451 (80.2%) underwent elective surgery and 1 711 160 (19.8%) emergency surgery. Overall, 2 311 600 (26.8%) patients had a chronic disease, of whom 109 686 (4.7%) died within 90 days compared with 24 136 (0.4%) of 6 313 011 without chronic disease. Respiratory disease (1 002 281 [11.6%]), diabetes mellitus (662 706 [7.7%]), and cancer (310 363; 3.6%) were the most common. Four chronic diseases accounted for 7.7% of patients but 59.0% of deaths: cancer (37 693 deaths [12.1%]; OR=8.3 [8.2-8.5]), liver disease (8638 deaths [10.3%]; OR=4.5 [4.4-4.7]), cardiac failure (26 604 deaths [12.6%]; OR=2.4 [2.4-2.5]), and dementia (19 912 deaths [17.9%]; OR=2.0 [1.9-2.0]). Two-year survival was 67.7% among patients with high-risk chronic disease, compared with 97.1% without. CONCLUSION: One in four surgical patients has a chronic disease with an associated 10-fold increase in risk of postoperative death. Two-thirds of all deaths after surgery occur among patients with high-risk diseases (cancer, cardiac failure, liver disease, dementia).

Paradata analyses to inform population-based survey capture of pregnancy outcomes: EN-INDEPTH study.

BACKGROUND: Paradata are (timestamped) records tracking the process of (electronic) data collection. We analysed paradata from a large household survey of questions capturing pregnancy outcomes to assess performance (timing and correction processes). We examined how paradata can be used to inform and improve questionnaire design and survey implementation in nationally representative household surveys, the major source for maternal and newborn health data worldwide. METHODS: The EN-INDEPTH cross-sectional population-based survey of women of reproductive age in five Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites (in Bangladesh, Guinea-Bissau, Ethiopia, Ghana, and Uganda) randomly compared two modules to capture pregnancy outcomes: full pregnancy history (FPH) and the standard DHS-7 full birth history (FBH+). We used paradata related to answers recorded on tablets using the Survey Solutions platform. We evaluated the difference in paradata entries between the two reproductive modules and assessed which question characteristics (type, nature, structure) affect answer correction rates, using regression analyses. We also proposed and tested a new classification of answer correction types. RESULTS: We analysed 3.6 million timestamped entries from 65,768 interviews. 83.7% of all interviews had at least one corrected answer to a question. Of 3.3 million analysed questions, 7.5% had at least one correction. Among corrected questions, the median number of corrections was one, regardless of question characteristics. We classified answer corrections into eight types (no correction, impulsive, flat (simple), zigzag, flat zigzag, missing after correction, missing after flat (zigzag) correction, missing/incomplete). 84.6% of all corrections were judged not to be problematic with a flat (simple) mistake correction. Question characteristics were important predictors of probability to make answer corrections, even after adjusting for respondent's characteristics and location, with interviewer clustering accounted as a fixed effect. Answer correction patterns and types were similar between FPH and FBH+, as well as the overall response duration. Avoiding corrections has the potential to reduce interview duration and reproductive module completion by 0.4 min. CONCLUSIONS: The use of questionnaire paradata has the potential to improve measurement and the resultant quality of electronic data. Identifying sections or specific questions with multiple corrections sheds light on typically hidden challenges in the survey's content, process, and administration, allowing for earlier real-time intervention (e.g.,, questionnaire content revision or additional staff training). Given the size and complexity of paradata, additional time, data management, and programming skills are required to realise its potential.

Road traffic noise, noise sensitivity, noise annoyance, psychological and physical health and mortality.

BACKGROUND: Both physical and psychological health outcomes have been associated with exposure to environmental noise. Noise sensitivity could have the same moderating effect on physical and psychological health outcomes related to environmental noise exposure as on annoyance but this has been little tested. METHODS: A cohort of 2398 men between 45 and 59 years, the longitudinal Caerphilly Collaborative Heart Disease study, was established in 1984/88 and followed into the mid-1990s. Road traffic noise maps were assessed at baseline. Psychological ill-health was measured in phase 2 in 1984/88, phase 3 (1989/93) and phase 4 (1993/7). Ischaemic heart disease was measured in clinic at baseline and through hospital records and records of deaths during follow up. We examined the longitudinal associations between road traffic noise and ischaemic heart disease morbidity and mortality using Cox Proportional Hazard Models and psychological ill-health using Logistic Regression; we also examined whether noise sensitivity and noise annoyance might moderate these associations. We also tested if noise sensitivity and noise annoyance were longitudinal predictors of ischaemic heart disease morbidity and mortality and psychological ill-health. RESULTS: Road traffic noise was not associated with ischaemic heart disease morbidity or mortality. Neither noise sensitivity nor noise annoyance moderated the effects of road traffic noise on ischaemic heart disease morbidity or mortality. High noise sensitivity was associated with lower ischaemic heart disease mortality risk (HR = 0.74, 95%CI 0.57, 0.97). Road traffic noise was associated with Phase 4 psychological ill-health but only among those exposed to 56-60dBA (fully adjusted OR = 1.82 95%CI 1.07, 3.07). Noise sensitivity moderated the association of road traffic noise exposure with psychological ill-health. High noise sensitivity was associated longitudinally with psychological ill-health at phase 3 (OR = 1.85 95%CI 1.23, 2.78) and phase 4 (OR = 1.65 95%CI 1.09, 2.50). Noise annoyance predicted psychological ill-health at phase 4 (OR = 2.47 95%CI 1.00, 6.13). CONCLUSIONS: Noise sensitivity is a specific predictor of psychological ill-health and may be part of a wider construct of environmental susceptibility. Noise sensitivity may increase the risk of psychological ill-health when exposed to road traffic noise. Noise annoyance may be a mediator of the effects of road traffic noise on psychological ill-health.

Missing data: A statistical framework for practice.

Missing data are ubiquitous in medical research, yet there is still uncertainty over when restricting to the complete records is likely to be acceptable, when more complex methods (e.g. maximum likelihood, multiple imputation and Bayesian methods) should be used, how they relate to each other and the role of sensitivity analysis. This article seeks to address both applied practitioners and researchers interested in a more formal explanation of some of the results. For practitioners, the framework, illustrative examples and code should equip them with a practical approach to address the issues raised by missing data (particularly using multiple imputation), alongside an overview of how the various approaches in the literature relate. In particular, we describe how multiple imputation can be readily used for sensitivity analyses, which are still infrequently performed. For those interested in more formal derivations, we give outline arguments for key results, use simple examples to show how methods relate, and references for full details. The ideas are illustrated with a cohort study, a multi-centre case control study and a randomised clinical trial.