Disentangling the potential effects of land-use and climate change on stream conditions.

Land-use and climate change are significantly affecting stream ecosystems, yet understanding of their long-term impacts is hindered by the few studies that have simultaneously investigated their interaction and high variability among future projections. We modeled possible effects of a suite of 2030, 2060, and 2090 land-use and climate scenarios on the condition of 70,772 small streams in the Chesapeake Bay watershed, United States. The Chesapeake Basin-wide Index of Biotic Integrity, a benthic macroinvertebrate multimetric index, was used to represent stream condition. Land-use scenarios included four Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2) representing a range of potential landscape futures. Future climate scenarios included quartiles of future climate changes from downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5) and a watershed-wide uniform scenario (Lynch2016). We employed random forests analysis to model individual and combined effects of land-use and climate change on stream conditions. Individual scenarios suggest that by 2090, watershed-wide conditions may exhibit anywhere from large degradations (e.g., scenarios A1B, A2, and the CMIP5 25th percentile) to small degradations (e.g., scenarios B1, B2, and Lynch2016). Combined land-use and climate change scenarios highlighted their interaction and predicted, by 2090, watershed-wide degradation in 16.2% (A2 CMIP5 25th percentile) to 1.0% (B2 Lynch2016) of stream kilometers. A goal for the Chesapeake Bay watershed is to restore 10% of stream kilometers over a 2008 baseline; our results suggest meeting and sustaining this goal until 2090 may require improvement in 11.0%-26.2% of stream kilometers, dependent on land-use and climate scenario. These results highlight inherent variability among scenarios and the resultant uncertainty of predicted conditions, which reinforces the need to incorporate multiple scenarios of both land-use (e.g., development, agriculture, etc.) and climate change in future studies to encapsulate the range of potential future conditions.

Critical land change information enhances the understanding of carbon balance in the United States.

Large-scale terrestrial carbon (C) estimating studies using methods such as atmospheric inversion, biogeochemical modeling, and field inventories have produced different results. The goal of this study was to integrate fine-scale processes including land use and land cover change into a large-scale ecosystem framework. We analyzed the terrestrial C budget of the conterminous United States from 1971 to 2015 at 1-km resolution using an enhanced dynamic global vegetation model and comprehensive land cover change data. Effects of atmospheric CO2 fertilization, nitrogen deposition, climate, wildland fire, harvest, and land use/land cover change (LUCC) were considered. We estimate annual C losses from cropland harvest, forest clearcut and thinning, fire, and LUCC were 436.8, 117.9, 10.5, and 10.4 TgC/year, respectively. C stored in ecosystems increased from 119,494 to 127,157 TgC between 1971 and 2015, indicating a mean annual net C sink of 170.3 TgC/year. Although ecosystem net primary production increased by approximately 12.3 TgC/year, most of it was offset by increased C loss from harvest and natural disturbance and increased ecosystem respiration related to forest aging. As a result, the strength of the overall ecosystem C sink did not increase over time. Our modeled results indicate the conterminous US C sink was about 30% smaller than previous modeling studies, but converged more closely with inventory data.

Ecosystem carbon stocks and sequestration potential of federal lands across the conterminous United States.

Federal lands across the conterminous United States (CONUS) account for 23.5% of the CONUS terrestrial area but have received no systematic studies on their ecosystem carbon (C) dynamics and contribution to the national C budgets. The methodology for US Congress-mandated national biological C sequestration potential assessment was used to evaluate ecosystem C dynamics in CONUS federal lands at present and in the future under three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios (IPCC SRES) A1B, A2, and B1. The total ecosystem C stock was estimated as 11,613 Tg C in 2005 and projected to be 13,965 Tg C in 2050, an average increase of 19.4% from the baseline. The projected annual C sequestration rate (in kilograms of carbon per hectare per year) from 2006 to 2050 would be sinks of 620 and 228 for forests and grasslands, respectively, and C sources of 13 for shrublands. The federal lands' contribution to the national ecosystem C budget could decrease from 23.3% in 2005 to 20.8% in 2050. The C sequestration potential in the future depends not only on the footprint of individual ecosystems but also on each federal agency's land use and management. The results presented here update our current knowledge about the baseline ecosystem C stock and sequestration potential of federal lands, which would be useful for federal agencies to decide management practices to achieve the national greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation goal.

Spatially explicit modeling of 1992-2100 land cover and forest stand age for the conterminous United States.

Information on future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change is needed to analyze the impact of LULC change on ecological processes. The U.S. Geological Survey has produced spatially explicit, thematically detailed LULC projections for the conterminous United States. Four qualitative and quantitative scenarios of LULC change were developed, with characteristics consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). The four quantified scenarios (A1B, A2, B1, and B2) served as input to the forecasting scenarios of land-use change (FORE-SCE) model. Four spatially explicit data sets consistent with scenario storylines were produced for the conterminous United States, with annual LULC maps from 1992 through 2100. The future projections are characterized by a loss of natural land covers in most scenarios, with corresponding expansion of anthropogenic land uses. Along with the loss of natural land covers, remaining natural land covers experience increased fragmentation under most scenarios, with only the B2 scenario remaining relatively stable in both the proportion of remaining natural land covers and basic fragmentation measures. Forest stand age was also modeled. By 2100, scenarios and ecoregions with heavy forest cutting had relatively lower mean stand ages compared to those with less forest cutting. Stand ages differed substantially between unprotected and protected forest lands, as well as between different forest classes. The modeled data were compared to the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) and other data sources to assess model characteristics. The consistent, spatially explicit, and thematically detailed LULC projections and the associated forest stand-age data layers have been used to analyze LULC impacts on carbon and greenhouse gas fluxes, biodiversity, climate and weather variability, hydrologic change, and other ecological processes.

Clarity versus complexity: land-use modeling as a practical tool for decision-makers.

The last decade has seen a remarkable increase in the number of modeling tools available to examine future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change. Integrated modeling frameworks, agent-based models, cellular automata approaches, and other modeling techniques have substantially improved the representation of complex LULC systems, with each method using a different strategy to address complexity. However, despite the development of new and better modeling tools, the use of these tools is limited for actual planning, decision-making, or policy-making purposes. LULC modelers have become very adept at creating tools for modeling LULC change, but complicated models and lack of transparency limit their utility for decision-makers. The complicated nature of many LULC models also makes it impractical or even impossible to perform a rigorous analysis of modeling uncertainty. This paper provides a review of land-cover modeling approaches and the issues causes by the complicated nature of models, and provides suggestions to facilitate the increased use of LULC models by decision-makers and other stakeholders. The utility of LULC models themselves can be improved by 1) providing model code and documentation, 2) through the use of scenario frameworks to frame overall uncertainties, 3) improving methods for generalizing key LULC processes most important to stakeholders, and 4) adopting more rigorous standards for validating models and quantifying uncertainty. Communication with decision-makers and other stakeholders can be improved by increasing stakeholder participation in all stages of the modeling process, increasing the transparency of model structure and uncertainties, and developing user-friendly decision-support systems to bridge the link between LULC science and policy. By considering these options, LULC science will be better positioned to support decision-makers and increase real-world application of LULC modeling results.

Projection of corn production and stover-harvesting impacts on soil organic carbon dynamics in the U.S. Temperate Prairies.

Terrestrial carbon sequestration potential is widely considered as a realistic option for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. However, this potential may be threatened by global changes including climate, land use, and management changes such as increased corn stover harvesting for rising production of cellulosic biofuel. Therefore, it is critical to investigate the dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) at regional or global scale. This study simulated the corn production and spatiotemporal changes of SOC in the U.S. Temperate Prairies, which covers over one-third of the U.S. corn acreage, using a biogeochemical model with multiple climate and land-use change projections. The corn production (either grain yield or stover biomass) could reach 88.7-104.7 TgC as of 2050, 70-101% increase when compared to the base year of 2010. A removal of 50% stover at the regional scale could be a reasonable cap in view of maintaining SOC content and soil fertility especially in the beginning years. The projected SOC dynamics indicated that the average carbon sequestration potential across the entire region may vary from 12.7 to 19.6 g C/m(2)/yr (i.e., 6.6-10.2 g TgC/yr). This study not only helps understand SOC dynamics but also provides decision support for sustainable biofuel development.

Projecting the spatiotemporal carbon dynamics of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem from 2006 to 2050.

BACKGROUND: Climate change and the concurrent change in wildfire events and land use comprehensively affect carbon dynamics in both spatial and temporal dimensions. The purpose of this study was to project the spatial and temporal aspects of carbon storage in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) under these changes from 2006 to 2050. We selected three emission scenarios and produced simulations with the CENTURY model using three General Circulation Models (GCMs) for each scenario. We also incorporated projected land use change and fire occurrence into the carbon accounting. RESULTS: The three GCMs showed increases in maximum and minimum temperature, but precipitation projections varied among GCMs. Total ecosystem carbon increased steadily from 7,942 gC/m2 in 2006 to 10,234 gC/m2 in 2050 with an annual rate increase of 53 gC/m2/year. About 56.6% and 27% of the increasing rate was attributed to total live carbon and total soil carbon, respectively. Net Primary Production (NPP) increased slightly from 260 gC/m2/year in 2006 to 310 gC/m2/year in 2050 with an annual rate increase of 1.22 gC/m2/year. Forest clear-cutting and fires resulted in direct carbon removal; however, the rate was low at 2.44 gC/m2/year during 2006-2050. The area of clear-cutting and wildfires in the GYE would account for 10.87% of total forested area during 2006-2050, but the predictive simulations demonstrated different spatial distributions in national forests and national parks. CONCLUSIONS: The GYE is a carbon sink during 2006-2050. The capability of vegetation is almost double that of soil in terms of sequestering extra carbon. Clear-cutting and wildfires in GYE will affect 10.87% of total forested area, but direct carbon removal from clear-cutting and fires is 109.6 gC/m2, which accounts for only 1.2% of the mean ecosystem carbon level of 9,056 gC/m2, and thus is not significant.

The relative impacts of climate and land-use change on conterminous United States bird species from 2001 to 2075.

Species distribution models often use climate data to assess contemporary and/or future ranges for animal or plant species. Land use and land cover (LULC) data are important predictor variables for determining species range, yet are rarely used when modeling future distributions. In this study, maximum entropy modeling was used to construct species distribution maps for 50 North American bird species to determine relative contributions of climate and LULC for contemporary (2001) and future (2075) time periods. Species presence data were used as a dependent variable, while climate, LULC, and topographic data were used as predictor variables. Results varied by species, but in general, measures of model fit for 2001 indicated significantly poorer fit when either climate or LULC data were excluded from model simulations. Climate covariates provided a higher contribution to 2001 model results than did LULC variables, although both categories of variables strongly contributed. The area deemed to be "suitable" for 2001 species presence was strongly affected by the choice of model covariates, with significantly larger ranges predicted when LULC was excluded as a covariate. Changes in species ranges for 2075 indicate much larger overall range changes due to projected climate change than due to projected LULC change. However, the choice of study area impacted results for both current and projected model applications, with truncation of actual species ranges resulting in lower model fit scores and increased difficulty in interpreting covariate impacts on species range. Results indicate species-specific response to climate and LULC variables; however, both climate and LULC variables clearly are important for modeling both contemporary and potential future species ranges.

Federal land management, carbon sequestration, and climate change in the Southeastern U.S.: a case study with Fort Benning.

Land use activities can have a major impact on the temporal trends and spatial patterns of regional land-atmosphere exchange of carbon. Federal lands generally have substantially different land management strategies from surrounding areas, and the carbon consequences have rarely been quantified and assessed. Using the Fort Benning Installation as a case study, we used the General Ensemble biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS) to simulate and compare ecosystem carbon sequestration between the U.S. Army's Fort Benning and surrounding areas from 1992 to 2050. Our results indicate that the military installation sequestered more carbon than surrounding areas from 1992 to 2007 (76.7 vs 18.5 g C m(-2) yr(-1)), and is projected to continue sequestering more carbon from 2008 to 2050 (75.7 vs 25.6 g C m(-2) yr(-1)), mostly because of the proactive management approaches adopted on military training lands. Our results suggest that federal lands might play a positive and important role in sequestering and conserving atmospheric carbon because some anthropogenic disturbances (e.g., urbanization, forest harvesting, and agriculture) can be minimized or prevented on federal lands.

Using an ecoregion framework to analyze land-cover and land-use dynamics.

The United States has a highly varied landscape because of wide-ranging differences in combinations of climatic, geologic, edaphic, hydrologic, vegetative, and human management (land use) factors. Land uses are dynamic, with the types and rates of change dependent on a host of variables, including land accessibility, economic considerations, and the internal increase and movement of the human population. There is a convergence of evidence that ecoregions are very useful for organizing, interpreting, and reporting information about land-use dynamics. Ecoregion boundaries correspond well with patterns of land cover, urban settlement, agricultural variables, and resource-based industries. We implemented an ecoregion framework to document trends in contemporary land-cover and land-use dynamics over the conterminous United States from 1973 to 2000. Examples of results from six eastern ecoregions show that the relative abundance, grain of pattern, and human alteration of land-cover types organize well by ecoregion and that these characteristics of change, themselves, change through time.