Comparison of stochastic and deterministic models for gambiense sleeping sickness at different spatial scales: A health area analysis in the DRC.

The intensification of intervention activities against the fatal vector-borne disease gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT, sleeping sickness) in the last two decades has led to a large decline in the number of annually reported cases. However, while we move closer to achieving the ambitious target of elimination of transmission (EoT) to humans, pockets of infection remain, and it becomes increasingly important to quantitatively assess if different regions are on track for elimination, and where intervention efforts should be focused. We present a previously developed stochastic mathematical model for gHAT in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and show that this same formulation is able to capture the dynamics of gHAT observed at the health area level (approximately 10,000 people). This analysis was the first time any stochastic gHAT model has been fitted directly to case data and allows us to better quantify the uncertainty in our results. The analysis focuses on utilising a particle filter Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology to fit the model to the data from 16 health areas of Mosango health zone in Kwilu province as a case study. The spatial heterogeneity in cases is reflected in modelling results, where we predict that under the current intervention strategies, the health area of Kinzamba II, which has approximately one third of the health zone's cases, will have the latest expected year for EoT. We find that fitting the analogous deterministic version of the gHAT model using MCMC has substantially faster computation times than fitting the stochastic model using pMCMC, but produces virtually indistinguishable posterior parameterisation. This suggests that expanding health area fitting, to cover more of the DRC, should be done with deterministic fits for efficiency, but with stochastic projections used to capture both the parameter and stochastic variation in case reporting and elimination year estimations.

An Ensemble Framework for Projecting the Impact of Lymphatic Filariasis Interventions Across Sub-Saharan Africa at a Fine Spatial Scale.

BACKGROUND: Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a neglected tropical disease targeted for elimination as a public health problem by 2030. Although mass treatments have led to huge reductions in LF prevalence, some countries or regions may find it difficult to achieve elimination by 2030 owing to various factors, including local differences in transmission. Subnational projections of intervention impact are a useful tool in understanding these dynamics, but correctly characterizing their uncertainty is challenging. METHODS: We developed a computationally feasible framework for providing subnational projections for LF across 44 sub-Saharan African countries using ensemble models, guided by historical control data, to allow assessment of the role of subnational heterogeneities in global goal achievement. Projected scenarios include ongoing annual treatment from 2018 to 2030, enhanced coverage, and biannual treatment. RESULTS: Our projections suggest that progress is likely to continue well. However, highly endemic locations currently deploying strategies with the lower World Health Organization recommended coverage (65%) and frequency (annual) are expected to have slow decreases in prevalence. Increasing intervention frequency or coverage can accelerate progress by up to 5 or 6 years, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: While projections based on baseline data have limitations, our methodological advancements provide assessments of potential bottlenecks for the global goals for LF arising from subnational heterogeneities. In particular, areas with high baseline prevalence may face challenges in achieving the 2030 goals, extending the "tail" of interventions. Enhancing intervention frequency and/or coverage will accelerate progress. Our approach facilitates preimplementation assessments of the impact of local interventions and is applicable to other regions and neglected tropical diseases.

Subnational Projections of Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination Targets in Ethiopia to Support National Level Policy.

BACKGROUND: Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a debilitating, poverty-promoting, neglected tropical disease (NTD) targeted for worldwide elimination as a public health problem (EPHP) by 2030. Evaluating progress towards this target for national programmes is challenging, due to differences in disease transmission and interventions at the subnational level. Mathematical models can help address these challenges by capturing spatial heterogeneities and evaluating progress towards LF elimination and how different interventions could be leveraged to achieve elimination by 2030. METHODS: Here we used a novel approach to combine historical geo-spatial disease prevalence maps of LF in Ethiopia with 3 contemporary disease transmission models to project trends in infection under different intervention scenarios at subnational level. RESULTS: Our findings show that local context, particularly the coverage of interventions, is an important determinant for the success of control and elimination programmes. Furthermore, although current strategies seem sufficient to achieve LF elimination by 2030, some areas may benefit from the implementation of alternative strategies, such as using enhanced coverage or increased frequency, to accelerate progress towards the 2030 targets. CONCLUSIONS: The combination of geospatial disease prevalence maps of LF with transmission models and intervention histories enables the projection of trends in infection at the subnational level under different control scenarios in Ethiopia. This approach, which adapts transmission models to local settings, may be useful to inform the design of optimal interventions at the subnational level in other LF endemic regions.

Accelerating Progress Towards the 2030 Neglected Tropical Diseases Targets: How Can Quantitative Modeling Support Programmatic Decisions?

Over the past decade, considerable progress has been made in the control, elimination, and eradication of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Despite these advances, most NTD programs have recently experienced important setbacks; for example, NTD interventions were some of the most frequently and severely impacted by service disruptions due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Mathematical modeling can help inform selection of interventions to meet the targets set out in the NTD road map 2021-2030, and such studies should prioritize questions that are relevant for decision-makers, especially those designing, implementing, and evaluating national and subnational programs. In September 2022, the World Health Organization hosted a stakeholder meeting to identify such priority modeling questions across a range of NTDs and to consider how modeling could inform local decision making. Here, we summarize the outputs of the meeting, highlight common themes in the questions being asked, and discuss how quantitative modeling can support programmatic decisions that may accelerate progress towards the 2030 targets.

Diagnosis of helminths depends on worm fecundity and the distribution of parasites within hosts.

Helminth transmission and morbidity are dependent on the number of mature parasites within a host; however, observing adult worms is impossible for many natural infections. An outstanding challenge is therefore relating routine diagnostics, such as faecal egg counts, to the underlying worm burden. This relationship is complicated by density-dependent fecundity (egg output per worm reduces due to crowding at high burdens) and the skewed distribution of parasites (majority of helminths aggregated in a small fraction of hosts). We address these questions for the carcinogenic liver fluke Opisthorchis viverrini, which infects approximately 10 million people across Southeast Asia, by analysing five epidemiological surveys (n = 641) where adult flukes were recovered. Using a mechanistic model, we show that parasite fecundity varies between populations, with surveys from Thailand and Laos demonstrating distinct patterns of egg output and density-dependence. As the probability of observing faecal eggs increases with the number of mature parasites within a host, we quantify diagnostic sensitivity as a function of the worm burden and find that greater than 50% of cases are misdiagnosed as false negative in communities close to elimination. Finally, we demonstrate that the relationship between observed prevalence from routine diagnostics and true prevalence is nonlinear and strongly influenced by parasite aggregation.

Omitting age-dependent mosquito mortality in malaria models underestimates the effectiveness of insecticide-treated nets.

Mathematical models of vector-borne infections, including malaria, often assume age-independent mortality rates of vectors, despite evidence that many insects senesce. In this study we present survival data on insecticide-resistant Anopheles gambiae s.l. from experiments in Côte d'Ivoire. We fit a constant mortality function and two age-dependent functions (logistic and Gompertz) to the data from mosquitoes exposed (treated) and not exposed (control) to insecticide-treated nets (ITNs), to establish biologically realistic survival functions. This enables us to explore the effects of insecticide exposure on mosquito mortality rates, and the extent to which insecticide resistance might impact the effectiveness of ITNs. We investigate this by calculating the expected number of infectious bites a mosquito will take in its lifetime, and by extension the vectorial capacity. Our results show that the predicted vectorial capacity is substantially lower in mosquitoes exposed to ITNs, despite the mosquitoes in the experiment being highly insecticide-resistant. The more realistic age-dependent functions provide a better fit to the experimental data compared to a constant mortality function and, hence, influence the predicted impact of ITNs on malaria transmission potential. In models with age-independent mortality, there is a great reduction for the vectorial capacity under exposure compared to no exposure. However, the two age-dependent functions predicted an even larger reduction due to exposure, highlighting the impact of incorporating age in the mortality rates. These results further show that multiple exposures to ITNs had a considerable effect on the vectorial capacity. Overall, the study highlights the importance of including age dependency in mathematical models of vector-borne disease transmission and in fully understanding the impact of interventions.

Inferring transmission trees to guide targeting of interventions against visceral leishmaniasis and post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis.

Understanding of spatiotemporal transmission of infectious diseases has improved significantly in recent years. Advances in Bayesian inference methods for individual-level geo-located epidemiological data have enabled reconstruction of transmission trees and quantification of disease spread in space and time, while accounting for uncertainty in missing data. However, these methods have rarely been applied to endemic diseases or ones in which asymptomatic infection plays a role, for which additional estimation methods are required. Here, we develop such methods to analyze longitudinal incidence data on visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and its sequela, post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL), in a highly endemic community in Bangladesh. Incorporating recent data on VL and PKDL infectiousness, we show that while VL cases drive transmission when incidence is high, the contribution of PKDL increases significantly as VL incidence declines (reaching 55% in this setting). Transmission is highly focal: 85% of mean distances from inferred infectors to their secondary VL cases were <300 m, and estimated average times from infector onset to secondary case infection were <4 mo for 88% of VL infectors, but up to 2.9 y for PKDL infectors. Estimated numbers of secondary cases per VL and PKDL case varied from 0 to 6 and were strongly correlated with the infector's duration of symptoms. Counterfactual simulations suggest that prevention of PKDL could have reduced overall VL incidence by up to 25%. These results highlight the need for prompt detection and treatment of PKDL to achieve VL elimination in the Indian subcontinent and provide quantitative estimates to guide spatiotemporally targeted interventions against VL.

Revealing the Reactivity of Individual Chemical Entities in Complex Mixtures: the Chemistry Behind Bio-Oil Upgrading.

Bio-oils are precursors for biofuels but are highly corrosive necessitating further upgrading. Furthermore, bio-oil samples are highly complex and represent a broad range of chemistries. They are complex mixtures not simply because of the large number of poly-oxygenated compounds but because each composition can comprise many isomers with multiple functional groups. The use of hyphenated ultrahigh-resolution mass spectrometry affords the ability to separate isomeric species of complex mixtures. Here, we present for the first time, the use of this powerful analytical technique combined with chemical reactivity to gain greater insights into the reactivity of the individual isomeric species of bio-oils. A pyrolysis bio-oils and its esterified bio-oil were analyzed using gas chromatography coupled to Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry, and in-house software (KairosMS) was used for fast comparison of the hyphenated data sets. The data revealed a total of 10,368 isomers in the pyrolysis bio-oil and an increase to 18,827 isomers after esterification conditions. Furthermore, the comparison of the isomeric distribution before and after esterification provide new light on the reactivities within these complex mixtures; these reactivities would be expected to correspond with carboxylic acid, aldehyde, and ketone functional groups. Using this approach, it was possible to reveal the increased chemical complexity of bio-oils after upgrading and target detection of valuable compounds within the bio-oils. The combination of chemical reactions alongside with in-depth molecular characterization opens a new window for the understanding of the chemistry and reactivity of complex mixtures.

Quantifying epidemiological drivers of gambiense human African Trypanosomiasis across the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) is a virulent disease declining in burden but still endemic in West and Central Africa. Although it is targeted for elimination of transmission by 2030, there remain numerous questions about the drivers of infection and how these vary geographically. In this study we focus on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which accounted for 84% of the global case burden in 2016, to explore changes in transmission across the country and elucidate factors which may have contributed to the persistence of disease or success of interventions in different regions. We present a Bayesian fitting methodology, applied to 168 endemic health zones (∼100,000 population size), which allows for calibration of a mechanistic gHAT model to case data (from the World Health Organization HAT Atlas) in an adaptive and automated framework. It was found that the model needed to capture improvements in passive detection to match observed trends in the data within former Bandundu and Bas Congo provinces indicating these regions have substantially reduced time to detection. Health zones in these provinces generally had longer burn-in periods during fitting due to additional model parameters. Posterior probability distributions were found for a range of fitted parameters in each health zone; these included the basic reproduction number estimates for pre-1998 (R0) which was inferred to be between 1 and 1.14, in line with previous gHAT estimates, with higher median values typically in health zones with more case reporting in the 2000s. Previously, it was not clear whether a fall in active case finding in the period contributed to the declining case numbers. The modelling here accounts for variable screening and suggests that underlying transmission has also reduced greatly-on average 96% in former Equateur, 93% in former Bas Congo and 89% in former Bandundu-Equateur and Bandundu having had the highest case burdens in 2000. This analysis also sets out a framework to enable future predictions for the country.

Modelling to Quantify the Likelihood that Local Elimination of Transmission has Occurred Using Routine Gambiense Human African Trypanosomiasis Surveillance Data.

BACKGROUND: The gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) elimination programme in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) routinely collects case data through passive surveillance and active screening, with several regions reporting no cases for several years, despite being endemic in the early 2000s. METHODS: We use mathematical models fitted to longitudinal data to estimate the probability that selected administrative regions have already achieved elimination of transmission (EOT) of gHAT. We examine the impact of active screening coverage on the certainty of model estimates for transmission and therefore the role of screening in the measurement of EOT. RESULTS: In 3 example health zones of Sud-Ubangi province, we find there is a moderate (>40%) probability that EOT has been achieved by 2018, based on 2000-2016 data. Budjala and Mbaya reported zero cases during 2017-18, and this further increases our respective estimates to 99.9% and 99.6% (model S) and to 87.3% and 92.1% (model W). Bominenge had recent case reporting, however, that if zero cases were found in 2021, it would substantially raise our certainty that EOT has been met there (99.0% for model S and 88.5% for model W); this could be higher with 50% coverage screening that year (99.1% for model S and 94.0% for model W). CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate how routine surveillance data coupled with mechanistic modeling can estimate the likelihood that EOT has already been achieved. Such quantitative assessment will become increasingly important for measuring local achievement of EOT as 2030 approaches.

Predicted Impact of COVID-19 on Neglected Tropical Disease Programs and the Opportunity for Innovation.

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, many key neglected tropical disease (NTD) activities have been postponed. This hindrance comes at a time when the NTDs are progressing towards their ambitious goals for 2030. Mathematical modelling on several NTDs, namely gambiense sleeping sickness, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH), trachoma, and visceral leishmaniasis, shows that the impact of this disruption will vary across the diseases. Programs face a risk of resurgence, which will be fastest in high-transmission areas. Furthermore, of the mass drug administration diseases, schistosomiasis, STH, and trachoma are likely to encounter faster resurgence. The case-finding diseases (gambiense sleeping sickness and visceral leishmaniasis) are likely to have fewer cases being detected but may face an increasing underlying rate of new infections. However, once programs are able to resume, there are ways to mitigate the impact and accelerate progress towards the 2030 goals.

KairosMS: A New Solution for the Processing of Hyphenated Ultrahigh Resolution Mass Spectrometry Data.

The use of hyphenated Fourier transform mass spectrometry (FTMS) methods affords additional information about complex chemical mixtures. Coeluted components can be resolved thanks to the ultrahigh resolving power, which also allows extracted ion chromatograms (EICs) to be used for the observation of isomers. As such data sets can be large and data analyses laborious, improved tools are needed for data analyses and extraction of key information. The typical workflow for this type of data is based upon manually dividing the total ion chromatogram (TIC) into several windows of usually equal retention time, averaging the signal of each window to create a single mass spectrum, extracting a peak list, performing the compositional assignments, visualizing the results, and repeating the process for each window. Through removal of the need to manually divide a data set into many time windows and analyze each one, a time-consuming workflow has been significantly simplified. An environmental sample from the oil sands region of Alberta, Canada, and dissolved organic matter samples from the Suwannee River Fulvic Acid (SRFA) and marine waters (Marine DOM) were used as a test bed for the new method. A complete solution named KairosMS was developed in the R language utilizing the Tidyverse packages and Shiny for the user interface. KairosMS imports raw data from common file types, processes it, and exports a mass list for compositional assignments. KairosMS then incorporates those assignments for analysis and visualization. The present method increases the computational speed while reducing the manual work of the analysis when compared to other current methods. The algorithm subsequently incorporates the assignments into the processed data set, generating a series of interactive plots, EICs for individual components or entire compound classes, and can export raw data or graphics for off-line use. Using the example of petroleum related data, it is then visualized according to heteroatom class, carbon number, double bond equivalents, and retention time. The algorithm also gives the ability to screen for isomeric contributions and to follow homologous series or compound classes, instead of individual components, as a function of time.

Climate drivers of plague epidemiology in British India, 1898-1949.

Plague, caused by Yersinia pestis infection, continues to threaten low- and middle-income countries throughout the world. The complex interactions between rodents and fleas with their respective environments challenge our understanding of human plague epidemiology. Historical long-term datasets of reported plague cases offer a unique opportunity to elucidate the effects of climate on plague outbreaks in detail. Here, we analyse monthly plague deaths and climate data from 25 provinces in British India from 1898 to 1949 to generate insights into the influence of temperature, rainfall and humidity on the occurrence, severity and timing of plague outbreaks. We find that moderate relative humidity levels of between 60% and 80% were strongly associated with outbreaks. Using wavelet analysis, we determine that the nationwide spread of plague was driven by changes in humidity, where, on average, a one-month delay in the onset of rising humidity translated into a one-month delay in the timing of plague outbreaks. This work can inform modern spatio-temporal predictive models for the disease and aid in the development of early-warning strategies for the deployment of prophylactic treatments and other control measures.

Rhapso: Automatic Stitching of Mass Segments from Fourier Transform Ion Cyclotron Resonance Mass Spectra.

Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICR MS) provides the resolution and mass accuracy needed to analyze complex mixtures such as crude oil. When mixtures contain many different components, a competitive effect within the ICR cell takes place that hampers the detection of a potentially large fraction of the components. Recently, a new data collection technique, which consists of acquiring several spectra of small mass ranges and assembling a complete spectrum afterward, enabled the observation of a record number of peaks with greater accuracy compared to broadband methods. There is a need for statistical methods to combine and preprocess segmented acquisition data. A particular challenge of quadrupole isolation is that near the window edges there is a drop in intensity, hampering the stitching of consecutive windows. We developed an algorithm called Rhapso to stitch peak lists corresponding to multiple different m/z regions from crude oil samples. Rhapso corrects potential edge effects to enable the use of smaller windows and reduce the required overlap between windows, corrects mass shifts between windows, and generates a single peak list for the full spectrum. Relative to a stitching performed manually, Rhapso increased the data processing speed and avoided potential human errors, simplifying the subsequent chemical analysis of the sample. Relative to a broadband spectrum, the stitched output showed an over 2-fold increase in assigned peaks and reduced mass error by a factor of 2. Rhapso is expected to enable routine use of this spectral stitching method for ultracomplex samples, giving a more detailed characterization of existing samples and enabling the characterization of samples that were previously too complex to analyze.

Themis: Batch Preprocessing for Ultrahigh-Resolution Mass Spectra of Complex Mixtures.

Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry affords the resolving power to determine an unprecedented number of components in complex mixtures, such as petroleum. The software tools required to also analyze these data struggle to keep pace with advancing instrument capabilities and increasing quantities of data, particularly in terms of combining information efficiently across multiple replicates. Improved confidence in data and the use of replicates is particularly important where strategic decisions will be based upon the analysis. We present a new algorithm named Themis, developed using R, to jointly preprocess replicate measurements of a sample with the aim of improving consistency as a preliminary step to assigning peaks to chemical compositions. The main features of the algorithm are quality control criteria to detect failed runs, ensuring comparable magnitudes across replicates, peak alignment, and the use of an adaptive mixture model-based strategy to help distinguish true peaks from noise. The algorithm outputs a list of peaks reliably observed across replicates and facilitates data handling by preprocessing all replicates in a single step. The processed data produced by our algorithm can subsequently be analyzed by use of relevant specialized software. While Themis has been demonstrated with petroleum as an example of a complex mixture, its basic framework will be useful for complex samples arising from a variety of other applications.

Quantifying the multi-scale performance of network inference algorithms.

Graphical models are widely used to study complex multivariate biological systems. Network inference algorithms aim to reverse-engineer such models from noisy experimental data. It is common to assess such algorithms using techniques from classifier analysis. These metrics, based on ability to correctly infer individual edges, possess a number of appealing features including invariance to rank-preserving transformation. However, regulation in biological systems occurs on multiple scales and existing metrics do not take into account the correctness of higher-order network structure. In this paper novel performance scores are presented that share the appealing properties of existing scores, whilst capturing ability to uncover regulation on multiple scales. Theoretical results confirm that performance of a network inference algorithm depends crucially on the scale at which inferences are to be made; in particular strong local performance does not guarantee accurate reconstruction of higher-order topology. Applying these scores to a large corpus of data from the DREAM5 challenge, we undertake a data-driven assessment of estimator performance. We find that the "wisdom of crowds" network, that demonstrated superior local performance in the DREAM5 challenge, is also among the best performing methodologies for inference of regulation on multiple length scales.

Molecular-Scale Imaging Enables Direct Visualization of Molecular Defects and Chain Structure of Conjugated Polymers.

Conjugated polymers have become materials of choice for applications ranging from flexible optoelectronics to neuromorphic computing, but their polydispersity and tendency to aggregate pose severe challenges to their precise characterization. Here, the combination of vacuum electrospray deposition (ESD) with scanning tunneling microscopy (STM) is used to acquire, within the same experiment, assembly patterns, full mass distributions, exact sequencing, and quantification of polymerization defects. In a first step, the ESD-STM results are successfully benchmarked against NMR for low molecular mass polymers, where this technique is still applicable. Then, it is shown that ESD-STM is capable of reaching beyond its limits by characterizing, with the same accuracy, samples that are inaccessible to NMR. Finally, a recalibration procedure is proposed for size exclusion chromatography (SEC) mass distributions, using ESD-STM results as a reference. The distinctiveness of the molecular-scale information obtained by ESD-STM highlights its role as a crucial technique for the characterization of conjugated polymers.

Modelling timelines to elimination of sleeping sickness in the Democratic Republic of Congo, accounting for possible cryptic human and animal transmission.

BACKGROUND: Sleeping sickness (gambiense human African trypanosomiasis, gHAT) is a vector-borne disease targeted for global elimination of transmission (EoT) by 2030. There are, however, unknowns that have the potential to hinder the achievement and measurement of this goal. These include asymptomatic gHAT infections (inclusive of the potential to self-cure or harbour skin-only infections) and whether gHAT infection in animals can contribute to the transmission cycle in humans. METHODS: Using modelling, we explore how cryptic (undetected) transmission impacts the monitoring of progress towards and the achievement of the EoT goal. We have developed gHAT models that include either asymptomatic or animal transmission, and compare these to a baseline gHAT model without either of these transmission routes, to explore the potential role of cryptic infections on the EoT goal. Each model was independently calibrated to five different health zones in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) using available historical human case data for 2000-2020 (obtained from the World Health Organization's HAT Atlas). We applied a novel Bayesian sequential updating approach for the asymptomatic model to enable us to combine statistical information about this type of transmission from each health zone. RESULTS: Our results suggest that, when matched to past case data, we estimated similar numbers of new human infections between model variants, although human infections were slightly higher in the models with cryptic infections. We simulated the continuation of screen-confirm-and-treat interventions, and found that forward projections from the animal and asymptomatic transmission models produced lower probabilities of EoT than the baseline model; however, cryptic infections did not prevent EoT from being achieved eventually under this approach. CONCLUSIONS: This study is the first to simulate an (as-yet-to-be available) screen-and-treat strategy and found that removing a parasitological confirmation step was predicted to have a more noticeable benefit to transmission reduction under the asymptomatic model compared with the others. Our simulations suggest vector control could greatly impact all transmission routes in all models, although this resource-intensive intervention should be carefully prioritised.

Longitudinal population-level HIV epidemiologic and genomic surveillance highlights growing gender disparity of HIV transmission in Uganda.

HIV incidence in eastern and southern Africa has historically been concentrated among girls and women aged 15-24 years. As new cases decline with HIV interventions, population-level infection dynamics may shift by age and gender. Here, we integrated population-based surveillance of 38,749 participants in the Rakai Community Cohort Study and longitudinal deep-sequence viral phylogenetics to assess how HIV incidence and population groups driving transmission have changed from 2003 to 2018 in Uganda. We observed 1,117 individuals in the incidence cohort and 1,978 individuals in the transmission cohort. HIV viral suppression increased more rapidly in women than men, however incidence declined more slowly in women than men. We found that age-specific transmission flows shifted: whereas HIV transmission to girls and women (aged 15-24 years) from older men declined by about one-third, transmission to women (aged 25-34 years) from men that were 0-6 years older increased by half in 2003 to 2018. Based on changes in transmission flows, we estimated that closing the gender gap in viral suppression could have reduced HIV incidence in women by half in 2018. This study suggests that HIV programmes to increase HIV suppression in men are critical to reduce incidence in women, close gender gaps in infection burden and improve men's health in Africa.

Statistical methods for linking geostatistical maps and transmission models: Application to lymphatic filariasis in East Africa.

Infectious diseases remain one of the major causes of human mortality and suffering. Mathematical models have been established as an important tool for capturing the features that drive the spread of the disease, predicting the progression of an epidemic and hence guiding the development of strategies to control it. Another important area of epidemiological interest is the development of geostatistical methods for the analysis of data from spatially referenced prevalence surveys. Maps of prevalence are useful, not only for enabling a more precise disease risk stratification, but also for guiding the planning of more reliable spatial control programmes by identifying affected areas. Despite the methodological advances that have been made in each area independently, efforts to link transmission models and geostatistical maps have been limited. Motivated by this fact, we developed a Bayesian approach that combines fine-scale geostatistical maps of disease prevalence with transmission models to provide quantitative, spatially-explicit projections of the current and future impact of control programs against a disease. These estimates can then be used at a local level to identify the effectiveness of suggested intervention schemes and allow investigation of alternative strategies. The methodology has been applied to lymphatic filariasis in East Africa to provide estimates of the impact of different intervention strategies against the disease.