Improved mortality prediction for pediatric acute liver failure using dynamic prediction strategy.

OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a prediction tool for pediatric acute liver failure (PALF) mortality risks that captures the rapid and heterogeneous clinical course for accurate and updated prediction. METHODS: Data included 1144 participants with PALF enrolled during three phases of the PALF registry study over 15 years. Using joint modeling, we built a dynamic prediction tool for mortality by combining longitudinal trajectories of multiple laboratory and clinical variables. The predictive performance for 7-day and 21-day mortality was assessed using the area under curve (AUC) through cross-validation and split-by-time validation. RESULTS: We constructed a prognostic joint model that combines the temporal trajectories of international normalized ratio, total bilirubin, hepatic encephalopathy, platelet count, and serum creatinine. Dynamic prediction using updated information improved predictive performance over static prediction using the information at enrollment (Day 0) only. In cross-validation, AUC increased from 0.784 to 0.887 when measurements obtained between Days 1 and 2 were incorporated. AUC remained similar when we used the earlier subset of the sample for training and the later subset for testing. CONCLUSIONS: Serial measurements of five variables in the first few days of PALF capture the dynamic clinical course of the disease and improve risk prediction for mortality. Continuous disease monitoring and updating risk prognosis are beneficial for timely and judicious medical decisions.

Maralixibat in progressive familial intrahepatic cholestasis (MARCH-PFIC): a multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial.

BACKGROUND: Progressive familial intrahepatic cholestasis (PFIC) is a group of autosomal recessive disorders, the most prevalent being BSEP deficiency, resulting in disrupted bile formation, cholestasis, and pruritus. Building on a previous phase 2 study, we aimed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of maralixibat-an ileal bile acid transporter inhibitor-in participants with all types of PFIC. METHODS: MARCH-PFIC was a multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 study conducted in 29 community and hospital centres across 16 countries in Europe, the Americas, and Asia. We recruited participants aged 1-17 years with PFIC with persistent pruritus (>6 months; average of ≥1·5 on morning Itch-Reported Outcome [Observer; ItchRO(Obs)] during the last 4 weeks of screening) and biochemical abnormalities or pathological evidence of progressive liver disease, or both. We defined three analysis cohorts. The BSEP (or primary) cohort included only those with biallelic, non-truncated BSEP deficiency without low or fluctuating serum bile acids or previous biliary surgery. The all-PFIC cohort combined the BSEP cohort with participants with biallelic FIC1, MDR3, TJP2, or MYO5B deficiencies without previous surgery but regardless of bile acids. The full cohort had no exclusions. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive oral maralixibat (starting dose 142·5 µg/kg, then escalated to 570 µg/kg) or placebo twice daily for 26 weeks. The primary endpoint was the mean change in average morning ItchRO(Obs) severity score between baseline and weeks 15-26 in the BSEP cohort. The key secondary efficacy endpoint was the mean change in total serum bile acids between baseline and the average of weeks 18, 22, and 26 in the BSEP cohort. Efficacy analyses were done in the intention-to-treat population (all those randomly assigned) and safety analyses were done in all participants who received at least one dose of study drug. This completed trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03905330, and EudraCT, 2019-001211-22. FINDINGS: Between July 9, 2019, and March 4, 2022, 125 patients were screened, of whom 93 were randomly assigned to maralixibat (n=47; 14 in the BSEP cohort and 33 in the all-PFIC cohort) or placebo (n=46; 17 in the BSEP cohort and 31 in the all-PFIC cohort), received at least one dose of study drug, and were included in the intention-to-treat and safety populations. The median age was 3·0 years (IQR 2·0-7·0) and 51 (55%) of 93 participants were female and 42 (45%) were male. In the BSEP cohort, least-squares mean change from baseline in morning ItchRO(Obs) was -1·7 (95% CI -2·3 to -1·2) with maralixibat versus -0·6 (-1·1 to -0·1) with placebo, with a significant between-group difference of -1·1 (95% CI -1·8 to -0·3; p=0·0063). Least-squares mean change from baseline in total serum bile acids was -176 µmol/L (95% CI -257 to -94) for maralixibat versus 11 µmol/L (-58 to 80) for placebo, also representing a significant difference of -187 µmol/L (95% CI -293 to -80; p=0·0013). The most common adverse event was diarrhoea (27 [57%] of 47 patients on maralixibat vs nine [20%] of 46 patients on placebo; all mild or moderate and mostly transient). There were five (11%) participants with serious treatment-emergent adverse events in the maralixibat group versus three (7%) in the placebo group. No treatment-related deaths occurred. INTERPRETATION: Maralixibat improved pruritus and predictors of native liver survival in PFIC (eg, serum bile acids). Maralixibat represents a non-surgical, pharmacological option to interrupt the enterohepatic circulation and improve the standard of care in patients with PFIC. FUNDING: Mirum Pharmaceuticals.