Mothers with higher twinning propensity had lower fertility in pre-industrial Europe.

Historically, mothers producing twins gave birth, on average, more often than non-twinners. This observation has been interpreted as twinners having higher intrinsic fertility - a tendency to conceive easily irrespective of age and other factors - which has shaped both hypotheses about why twinning persists and varies across populations, and the design of medical studies on female fertility. Here we show in >20k pre-industrial European mothers that this interpretation results from an ecological fallacy: twinners had more births not due to higher intrinsic fertility, but because mothers that gave birth more accumulated more opportunities to produce twins. Controlling for variation in the exposure to the risk of twinning reveals that mothers with higher twinning propensity - a physiological predisposition to producing twins - had fewer births, and when twin mortality was high, fewer offspring reaching adulthood. Twinning rates may thus be driven by variation in its mortality costs, rather than variation in intrinsic fertility.

Sex differences in the consequences of early-life exposure to epidemiological stress--a life-history approach.

OBJECTIVES: Exposure to infectious disease in early life has been suggested to have a negative effect on later-life survival,possibly through the induction of inflammatory responses. Although a life-course perspective emphasizes the importance of both survival and reproduction for individual fitness, to date, no studies have investigated whether early-life exposure to infectious disease has an impact on reproduction as it has been suggested for later survival. METHODS: To address this question, I have used family reconstitution data from a historical (18th and 19th century) human population in the Krummhörn (Germany) comparing survival and reproduction between an exposed and a non-exposed group. The exposed group comprised those exposed to a high-infectious disease load during prenatal and early postnatal development. RESULTS: The results show a marked sex difference in the impact of early-life exposure to infectious disease. Exposed females show no effect on their life expectancy but significantly reduced fertility (number of children). For exposed males, however, the effect on survival is opponent over time: mortality is increased during childhood but decreased in late adulthood. Above that, exposed males reproduce earlier and have a smaller proportion of surviving children. CONCLUSIONS: This study does not support former studies indicating a negative association between early-life disease load and later survival. I argue that due to differences in male and female life strategies, males in general are more vulnerable especially early in life. Hence, adverse environmental conditions may have a stronger effect on male survivability and reproductive performance.

Increased mortality exposure within the family rather than individual mortality experiences triggers faster life-history strategies in historic human populations.

Life History Theory predicts that extrinsic mortality risk is one of the most important factors shaping (human) life histories. Evidence from contemporary populations suggests that individuals confronted with high mortality environments show characteristic traits of fast life-history strategies: they marry and reproduce earlier, have shorter birth intervals and invest less in their offspring. However, little is known of the impact of mortality experiences on the speed of life histories in historical human populations with generally higher mortality risk, and on male life histories in particular. Furthermore, it remains unknown whether individual-level mortality experiences within the family have a greater effect on life-history decisions or family membership explains life-history variation. In a comparative approach using event history analyses, we study the impact of family versus individual-level effects of mortality exposure on two central life-history parameters, ages at first marriage and first birth, in three historical human populations (Germany, Finland, Canada). Mortality experience is measured as the confrontation with sibling deaths within the natal family up to an individual's age of 15. Results show that the speed of life histories is not adjusted according to individual-level mortality experiences but is due to family-level effects. The general finding of lower ages at marriage/reproduction after exposure to higher mortality in the family holds for both females and males. This study provides evidence for the importance of the family environment for reproductive timing while individual-level mortality experiences seem to play only a minor role in reproductive life history decisions in humans.