Statistical approaches applicable in managing OMICS data: Urinary proteomics as exemplary case.

With urinary proteomics profiling (UPP) as exemplary omics technology, this review describes a workflow for the analysis of omics data in large study populations. The proposed workflow includes: (i) planning omics studies and sample size considerations; (ii) preparing the data for analysis; (iii) preprocessing the UPP data; (iv) the basic statistical steps required for data curation; (v) the selection of covariables; (vi) relating continuously distributed or categorical outcomes to a series of single markers (e.g., sequenced urinary peptide fragments identifying the parental proteins); (vii) showing the added diagnostic or prognostic value of the UPP markers over and beyond classical risk factors, and (viii) pathway analysis to identify targets for personalized intervention in disease prevention or treatment. Additionally, two short sections respectively address multiomics studies and machine learning. In conclusion, the analysis of adverse health outcomes in relation to omics biomarkers rests on the same statistical principle as any other data collected in large population or patient cohorts. The large number of biomarkers, which have to be considered simultaneously requires planning ahead how the study database will be structured and curated, imported in statistical software packages, analysis results will be triaged for clinical relevance, and presented.

Urinary peptides provide information about the risk of mortality across a spectrum of diseases and scenarios.

BACKGROUND: There is evidence of pre-established vulnerability in individuals that increases the risk of their progression to severe disease or death, although the mechanisms causing this are still not fully understood. Previous research has demonstrated that a urinary peptide classifier (COV50) predicts disease progression and death from SARS-CoV-2 at an early stage, indicating that the outcome prediction may be partly due to vulnerabilities that are already present. The aim of this study is to examine the ability of COV50 to predict future non-COVID-19-related mortality, and evaluate whether the pre-established vulnerability can be generic and explained on a molecular level by urinary peptides. METHODS: Urinary proteomic data from 9193 patients (1719 patients sampled at intensive care unit (ICU) admission and 7474 patients with other diseases (non-ICU)) were extracted from the Human Urinary Proteome Database. The previously developed COV50 classifier, a urinary proteomics biomarker panel consisting of 50 peptides, was applied to all datasets. The association of COV50 scoring with mortality was evaluated. RESULTS: In the ICU group, an increase in the COV50 score of one unit resulted in a 20% higher relative risk of death [adjusted HR 1.2 (95% CI 1.17-1.24)]. The same increase in COV50 in non-ICU patients resulted in a higher relative risk of 61% [adjusted HR 1.61 (95% CI 1.47-1.76)], consistent with adjusted meta-analytic HR estimate of 1.55 [95% CI 1.39-1.73]. The most notable and significant changes associated with future fatal events were reductions of specific collagen fragments, most of collagen alpha I (I). CONCLUSION: The COV50 classifier is predictive of death in the absence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, suggesting that it detects pre-existing vulnerability. This prediction is mainly based on collagen fragments, possibly reflecting disturbances in the integrity of the extracellular matrix. These data may serve as a basis for proteomics-guided intervention aiming towards manipulating/ improving collagen turnover, thereby reducing the risk of death.

Perfused boundary region as biomarker for endothelial integrity in former preterms in adolescence.

INTRODUCTION: Extremely low birth weight (ELBW) survivors have microvascular structural differences already described in kidney and retina, suggesting changes in endothelial integrity. A biomarker of endothelial integrity is perfused boundary region (PBR), which measures glycocalycal thickness. The endothelial glycocalyx is a complex, highly versatile structure with essential roles in vascular integrity and function. We explored PBR patterns together with other microvascular markers in healthy controls and former ELBW children. METHODS: In the PREMATCH cohort (87 healthy controls, 93 ELBW survivors), we assessed endothelial integrity by calculating PBR (sidestream dark-field imaging), several microvascular markers (blood pressure, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFRcysC)), and retinal imaging in early adolescence. We explored differences between both groups, and searched for perinatal determinants of PBR and correlations between different microvascular markers. RESULTS: We provided reference values for PBR (average 1.90 µm, SD 0.30) in children. PBR was not different from ELBW survivors during early adolescence, despite their higher blood pressure, lower eGFRcysC, and different retinal vessel width and tortuosity. CONCLUSIONS: We generated reference values for PBR in early adolescence. Despite some correlations between microvascular parameters, there seem to be numerous confounders to propose PBR as a marker for endothelial integrity in ELBW survivors. IMPACT: The endothelial glycocalyx is a complex and versatile structure. Changes in blood pressure and retinal and renal vascularization suggest a disturbance of its integrity in extremely low birth weight (ELBW) survivors. Its thickness can be measured by calculating perfused boundary region (PBR) using sidestream dark-field imaging, with a higher PBR indicating a thinner glycocalyx. We generated reference values for PBR in healthy adolescents. These values were not different in former ELBW children. Despite some correlations of PBR with other microvascular biomarkers, these are not strong enough to describe endothelial integrity and its covariates in former ELBW children.

Blood pressure lowering and prevention of dementia: an individual patient data meta-analysis.

AIMS: Observational studies indicate U-shaped associations of blood pressure (BP) and incident dementia in older age, but randomized controlled trials of BP-lowering treatment show mixed results on this outcome in hypertensive patients. A pooled individual participant data analysis of five seminal randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trials was undertaken to better define the effects of BP-lowering treatment for the prevention of dementia. METHODS AND RESULTS: Multilevel logistic regression was used to evaluate the treatment effect on incident dementia. Effect modification was assessed for key population characteristics including age, baseline systolic BP, sex, and presence of prior stroke. Mediation analysis was used to quantify the contribution of trial medication and changes in systolic and diastolic BP on risk of dementia. The total sample included 28 008 individuals recruited from 20 countries. After a median follow-up of 4.3 years, there were 861 cases of incident dementia. Multilevel logistic regression reported an adjusted odds ratio 0.87 (95% confidence interval: 0.75, 0.99) in favour of antihypertensive treatment reducing risk of incident dementia with a mean BP lowering of 10/4 mmHg. Further multinomial regression taking account of death as a competing risk found similar results. There was no effect modification by age or sex. Mediation analysis confirmed the greater fall in BP in the actively treated group was associated with a greater reduction in dementia risk. CONCLUSION: The first single-stage individual patient data meta-analysis from randomized double-blind placebo-controlled clinical trials provides evidence to support benefits of antihypertensive treatment in late-mid and later life to lower the risk of dementia. Questions remain as to the potential for additional BP lowering in those with already well-controlled hypertension and of antihypertensive treatment commenced earlier in the life-course to reduce the long-term risk of dementia. CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE: Class I evidence in favour of antihypertensive treatment reducing risk of incident dementia compared with placebo.

Orthostatic Hypotension, Hypertension Treatment, and Cardiovascular Disease: An Individual Participant Meta-Analysis.

Importance: There are ongoing concerns about the benefits of intensive vs standard blood pressure (BP) treatment among adults with orthostatic hypotension or standing hypotension. Objective: To determine the effect of a lower BP treatment goal or active therapy vs a standard BP treatment goal or placebo on cardiovascular disease (CVD) or all-cause mortality in strata of baseline orthostatic hypotension or baseline standing hypotension. Data Sources: Individual participant data meta-analysis based on a systematic review of MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CENTRAL databases through May 13, 2022. Study Selection: Randomized trials of BP pharmacologic treatment (more intensive BP goal or active agent) with orthostatic hypotension assessments. Data Extraction and Synthesis: Individual participant data meta-analysis extracted following PRISMA guidelines. Effects were determined using Cox proportional hazard models using a single-stage approach. Main Outcomes and Measures: Main outcomes were CVD or all-cause mortality. Orthostatic hypotension was defined as a decrease in systolic BP of at least 20 mm Hg and/or diastolic BP of at least 10 mm Hg after changing position from sitting to standing. Standing hypotension was defined as a standing systolic BP of 110 mm Hg or less or standing diastolic BP of 60 mm Hg or less. Results: The 9 trials included 29 235 participants followed up for a median of 4 years (mean age, 69.0 [SD, 10.9] years; 48% women). There were 9% with orthostatic hypotension and 5% with standing hypotension at baseline. More intensive BP treatment or active therapy lowered risk of CVD or all-cause mortality among those without baseline orthostatic hypotension (hazard ratio [HR], 0.81; 95% CI, 0.76-0.86) similarly to those with baseline orthostatic hypotension (HR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.70-1.00; P = .68 for interaction of treatment with baseline orthostatic hypotension). More intensive BP treatment or active therapy lowered risk of CVD or all-cause mortality among those without baseline standing hypotension (HR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.75-0.85), and nonsignificantly among those with baseline standing hypotension (HR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.75-1.18). Effects did not differ by baseline standing hypotension (P = .16 for interaction of treatment with baseline standing hypotension). Conclusions and Relevance: In this population of hypertension trial participants, intensive therapy reduced risk of CVD or all-cause mortality regardless of orthostatic hypotension without evidence for different effects among those with standing hypotension.

QTc intervals are not prolonged in former ELBW infants at pre-adolescent age.

BACKGROUND: Whether preterm birth is associated with cardiac conduction or repolarization abnormalities in later life is still poorly explored, with conflicting data on QTc prolongation in former extreme low birth weight (ELBW, <1000 g) infants. METHODS: Twelve lead electrocardiograms (ECG) at rest, collected in the PREMATurity as predictor of children's Cardiovascular-renal Health (PREMATCH) study in former ELBW cases and term controls during pre-adolescence (8-14 years) were analyzed on corrected QT time (QTc, Bazett) and QT dispersion (QTd). ECG findings were compared between groups (Mann-Whitney), and associations with clinical and biochemical findings were explored (Spearman). In ELBW cases, associations between QTc and perinatal characteristics (at birth, neonatal stay) were explored (Mann-Whitney, Spearman). RESULTS: QTc and QTd were similar between 93 ELBW cases and 87 controls [409 (range 360-465) versus 409 (337-460); 40 (0-100) versus 39 (0-110)] ms. Age, height, weight, or body mass index were not associated with the QTc interval, while female sex (median difference 11.4 ms) and lower potassium (r = -0.26) were associated with longer QTc interval. We could not observe any significant association between QTc interval and perinatal characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: There were no differences in QTc or QTd between ELBW and term controls in ECGs at rest in pre-adolescents. IMPACT: This study aimed to assess the differences in QTc and QTd intervals between extreme low birth weight infants (ELBW) and term controls in electrocardiographic measurements at rest during pre-adolescence. This analysis confirmed the absence of significant differences in QTc or QTd findings between ELBW cases and term controls, while female sex and lower potassium were associated with a prolonged QTc interval. These data suggest that QTc screening strategies-including for pharmacovigilance-should not differentiate between former ELBW cases and term controls. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT02147457.

Effects of Intensive Blood Pressure Treatment on Orthostatic Hypotension : A Systematic Review and Individual Participant-based Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Although intensive blood pressure (BP)-lowering treatment reduces risk for cardiovascular disease, there are concerns that it might cause orthostatic hypotension (OH). PURPOSE: To examine the effects of intensive BP-lowering treatment on OH in hypertensive adults. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane CENTRAL from inception through 7 October 2019, without language restrictions. STUDY SELECTION: Randomized trials of BP pharmacologic treatment (more intensive BP goal or active agent) that involved more than 500 adults with hypertension or elevated BP and that were 6 months or longer in duration. Trial comparisons were groups assigned to either less intensive BP goals or placebo, and the outcome was measured OH, defined as a decrease of 20 mm Hg or more in systolic BP or 10 mm Hg or more in diastolic BP after changing position from seated to standing. DATA EXTRACTION: 2 investigators independently abstracted articles and rated risk of bias. DATA SYNTHESIS: 5 trials examined BP treatment goals, and 4 examined active agents versus placebo. Trials examining BP treatment goals included 18 466 participants with 127 882 follow-up visits. Trials were open-label, with minimal heterogeneity of effects across trials. Intensive BP treatment lowered risk for OH (odds ratio, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.86 to 0.99]). Effects did not differ by prerandomization OH (P for interaction = 0.80). In sensitivity analyses that included 4 additional placebo-controlled trials, overall and subgroup findings were unchanged. LIMITATIONS: Assessments of OH were done while participants were seated (not supine) and did not include the first minute after standing. Data on falls and syncope were not available. CONCLUSION: Intensive BP-lowering treatment decreases risk for OH. Orthostatic hypotension, before or in the setting of more intensive BP treatment, should not be viewed as a reason to avoid or de-escalate treatment for hypertension. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, National Institutes of Health. (PROSPERO: CRD42020153753).

The effect of spironolactone on cardiovascular function and markers of fibrosis in people at increased risk of developing heart failure: the heart 'OMics' in AGEing (HOMAGE) randomized clinical trial.

AIMS: To investigate the effects of spironolactone on fibrosis and cardiac function in people at increased risk of developing heart failure. METHODS AND RESULTS: Randomized, open-label, blinded-endpoint trial comparing spironolactone (50 mg/day) or control for up to 9 months in people with, or at high risk of, coronary disease and raised plasma B-type natriuretic peptides. The primary endpoint was the interaction between baseline serum galectin-3 and changes in serum procollagen type-III N-terminal pro-peptide (PIIINP) in participants assigned to spironolactone or control. Procollagen type-I C-terminal pro-peptide (PICP) and collagen type-1 C-terminal telopeptide (CITP), reflecting synthesis and degradation of type-I collagen, were also measured. In 527 participants (median age 73 years, 26% women), changes in PIIINP were similar for spironolactone and control [mean difference (mdiff): -0.15; 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.44 to 0.15 µg/L; P = 0.32] but those receiving spironolactone had greater reductions in PICP (mdiff: -8.1; 95% CI -11.9 to -4.3 µg/L; P < 0.0001) and PICP/CITP ratio (mdiff: -2.9; 95% CI -4.3 to -1.5; <0.0001). No interactions with serum galectin were observed. Systolic blood pressure (mdiff: -10; 95% CI -13 to -7 mmHg; P < 0.0001), left atrial volume (mdiff: -1; 95% CI -2 to 0 mL/m2; P = 0.010), and NT-proBNP (mdiff: -57; 95% CI -81 to -33 ng/L; P < 0.0001) were reduced in those assigned spironolactone. CONCLUSIONS: Galectin-3 did not identify greater reductions in serum concentrations of collagen biomarkers in response to spironolactone. However, spironolactone may influence type-I collagen metabolism. Whether spironolactone can delay or prevent progression to symptomatic heart failure should be investigated.

CD99 and polymeric immunoglobulin receptor peptides deregulation in critical COVID-19: A potential link to molecular pathophysiology?

Identification of significant changes in urinary peptides may enable improved understanding of molecular disease mechanisms. We aimed towards identifying urinary peptides associated with critical course of COVID-19 to yield hypotheses on molecular pathophysiological mechanisms in disease development. In this multicentre prospective study urine samples of PCR-confirmed COVID-19 patients were collected in different centres across Europe. The urinary peptidome of 53 patients at WHO stages 6-8 and 66 at WHO stages 1-3 COVID-19 disease was analysed using capillary electrophoresis coupled to mass spectrometry. 593 peptides were identified significantly affected by disease severity. These peptides were compared with changes associated with kidney disease or heart failure. Similarities with kidney disease were observed, indicating comparable molecular mechanisms. In contrast, convincing similarity to heart failure could not be detected. The data for the first time showed deregulation of CD99 and polymeric immunoglobulin receptor peptides and of known peptides associated with kidney disease, including collagen and alpha-1-antitrypsin. Peptidomic findings were in line with the pathophysiology of COVID-19. The clinical corollary is that COVID-19 induces specific inflammation of numerous tissues including endothelial lining. Restoring these changes, especially in CD99, PIGR and alpha-1-antitripsin, may represent a valid and effective therapeutic approach in COVID-19, targeting improvement of endothelial integrity.

Antihypertensive treatment guided by genetics: PEARL-HT, the randomized proof-of-concept trial comparing rostafuroxin with losartan.

We compared a standard antihypertensive losartan treatment with a pharmacogenomics-guided rostafuroxin treatment in never-treated Caucasian and Chinese patients with primary hypertension. Rostafuroxin is a digitoxigenin derivative that selectively disrupts the binding to the cSrc-SH2 domain of mutant α-adducin and of the ouabain-activated Na-K pump at 10-11 M. Of 902 patients screened, 172 were enrolled in Italy and 107 in Taiwan. After stratification for country and genetic background, patients were randomized to rostafuroxin or losartan, being the difference in the fall in office systolic blood pressure (OSBP) after 2-month treatment the primary endpoint. Three pharmacogenomic profiles (P) were examined, considering: P1, adding to the gene variants included in the subsequent P2, the variants detected by post-hoc analysis of a previous trial; P2, variants of genes encoding enzymes for endogenous ouabain (EO) synthesis (LSS and HSD3B1), EO transport (MDR1/ABCB1), adducin (ADD1 and ADD3); P3, variants of the LSS gene only. In Caucasians, the group differences (rostafuroxin 50 µg minus losartan 50 mg in OSBP mmHg) were significant both in P2 adjusted for genetic heterogeneity (P2a) and P3 LSS rs2254524 AA [9.8 (0.6-19.0), P = 0.038 and 13.4 (25.4-2.5), P = 0.031, respectively]. In human H295R cells transfected with LSS A and LSS C variants, the EO production was greater in the former (P = 0.038); this difference was abolished by rostafuroxin at 10-11 M. Chinese patients had a similar drop in OSBP to Caucasians with losartan but no change in OSBP with rostafuroxin. These results show that genetics may guide drug treatment for primary hypertension in Caucasians.

Blood Pressure Measurement and Treatment Decisions.

White-coat and masked hypertension are important hypertension phenotypes. Out-of-office blood pressure measurement is essential for the accurate diagnosis and monitoring of these conditions. This review summarizes literature related to the detection and diagnosis, prevalence, epidemiology, prognosis, and treatment of white-coat and masked hypertension. Cardiovascular risk in white-coat hypertension appears to be dependent on the presence of coexisting risk factors, whereas patients with masked hypertension are at increased risk of target organ damage and cardiovascular events. There is an unmet need for robust data to support recommendations around the use of antihypertensive treatment for the management of white-coat and masked hypertension.

Evaluation of High Cholesterol and Risk of Dementia and Cognitive Decline in Older Adults Using Individual Patient Meta-Analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Although increased cholesterol level has been acknowledged as a risk factor for dementia, evidence synthesis based on published data has yielded mixed results. This is especially relevant in older adults where individual studies report non-linear relationships between cholesterol and cognition and, in some cases, find higher cholesterol associated with a lower risk of subsequent cognitive decline or dementia. Prior evidence synthesis based on published results has not allowed us to focus on older adults or to standardize analyses across studies. Given our ageing population, an increased risk of dementia in older adults, and the need for proportionate treatment in this age group, an individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis is timely. METHOD: We combined data from 8 studies and over 21,000 participants aged 60 years and over in a 2-stage IPD to examine the relationship between total, high-density, and low-density lipoprotein (HDL and LDL) cholesterol and subsequent incident dementia or cognitive decline, with the latter categorized using a reliable change index method. RESULTS: Meta-analyses found no relationship between total, HDL, or LDL cholesterol (per millimoles per litre increase) and risk of cognitive decline in this older adult group averaging 76 years of age. For total cholesterol and cognitive decline: odds ratio (OR) 0.93 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.86: 1.01) and for incident dementia: OR 1.01 [95% CI 0.89: 1.13]. This was not altered by rerunning the analyses separately for statin users and non-users or by the presence of an APOE e4 allele. CONCLUSION: There were no clear consistent relationships between cholesterol and cognitive decline or dementia in this older adult group, nor was there evidence of effect modification by statin use. Further work is needed in younger populations to understand the role of cholesterol across the life-course and to identify any relevant intervention points. This is especially important if modification of cholesterol is to be further evaluated for its potential influence on risk of cognitive decline or dementia.

Statistical reanalysis of vascular event outcomes in primary and secondary vascular prevention trials.

BACKGROUND: Vascular prevention trials typically use dichotomous event outcomes although this may be inefficient statistically and gives no indication of event severity. We assessed whether ordinal outcomes would be more efficient and how to best analyse them. METHODS: Chief investigators of vascular prevention randomised controlled trials that showed evidence of either benefit or harm, or were included in a systematic review that overall showed benefit or harm, shared individual participant data from their trials. Ordered categorical versions of vascular event outcomes (such as stroke and myocardial infarction) were analysed using 15 statistical techniques and their results then ranked, with the result with the smallest p-value given the smallest rank. Friedman and Duncan's multiple range tests were performed to assess differences between tests by comparing the average ranks for each statistical test. RESULTS: Data from 35 trials (254,223 participants) were shared with the collaboration. 13 trials had more than two treatment arms, resulting in 59 comparisons. Analysis approaches (Mann Whitney U, ordinal logistic regression, multiple regression, bootstrapping) that used ordinal outcome data had a smaller average rank and therefore appeared to be more efficient statistically than those that analysed the original binary outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Ordinal vascular outcome measures appear to be more efficient statistically than binary outcomes and provide information on the severity of event. We suggest a potential role for using ordinal outcomes in vascular prevention trials.

Urinary proteomics combined with home blood pressure telemonitoring for health care reform trial: rational and protocol.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension and diabetes cause chronic kidney disease (CKD) and diastolic left ventricular dysfunction (DVD) as forerunners of disability and death. Home blood pressure telemonitoring (HTM) and urinary peptidomic profiling (UPP) are technologies enabling prevention. METHODS: UPRIGHT-HTM (Urinary Proteomics Combined with Home Blood Pressure Telemonitoring for Health Care Reform [NCT04299529]) is an investigator-initiated 5-year clinical trial with patient-centred design, which will randomise 1148 patients to be recruited in Europe, sub-Saharan Africa and South America. During the whole study, HTM data will be collected and freely accessible for patients and caregivers. The UPP, measured at enrolment only, will be communicated early during follow-up to 50% of patients and their caregivers (intervention), but only at trial closure in 50% (control). The hypothesis is that early knowledge of the UPP risk profile will lead to more rigorous risk factor management and result in benefit. Eligible patients, aged 55-75 years old, are asymptomatic, but have ≥5 CKD- or DVD-related risk factors, preferably including hypertension, type-2 diabetes, or both. The primary endpoint is a composite of new-onset intermediate and hard cardiovascular and renal outcomes. Demonstrating that combining UPP with HTM is feasible in a multicultural context and defining the molecular signatures of early CKD and DVD are secondary endpoints. EXPECTED OUTCOMES: The expected outcome is that application of UPP on top of HTM will be superior to HTM alone in the prevention of CKD and DVD and associated complications and that UPP allows shifting emphasis from treating to preventing disease, thereby empowering patients.

Salt and cardiovascular disease: insufficient evidence to recommend low sodium intake.

Several blood pressure guidelines recommend low sodium intake (<2.3 g/day, 100 mmol, 5.8 g/day of salt) for the entire population, on the premise that reductions in sodium intake, irrespective of the levels, will lower blood pressure, and, in turn, reduce cardiovascular disease occurrence. These guidelines have been developed without effective interventions to achieve sustained low sodium intake in free-living individuals, without a feasible method to estimate sodium intake reliably in individuals, and without high-quality evidence that low sodium intake reduces cardiovascular events (compared with moderate intake). In this review, we examine whether the recommendation for low sodium intake, reached by current guideline panels, is supported by robust evidence. Our review provides a counterpoint to the current recommendation for low sodium intake and suggests that a specific low sodium intake target (e.g. <2.3 g/day) for individuals may be unfeasible, of uncertain effect on other dietary factors and of unproven effectiveness in reducing cardiovascular disease. We contend that current evidence, despite methodological limitations, suggests that most of the world's population consume a moderate range of dietary sodium (2.3-4.6g/day; 1-2 teaspoons of salt) that is not associated with increased cardiovascular risk, and that the risk of cardiovascular disease increases when sodium intakes exceed 5 g/day. While current evidence has limitations, and there are differences of opinion in interpretation of existing evidence, it is reasonable, based upon observational studies, to suggest a population-level mean target of <5 g/day in populations with mean sodium intake of >5 g/day, while awaiting the results of large randomized controlled trials of sodium reduction on incidence of cardiovascular events and mortality.

Individual participant data meta-analysis to examine interactions between treatment effect and participant-level covariates: Statistical recommendations for conduct and planning.

Precision medicine research often searches for treatment-covariate interactions, which refers to when a treatment effect (eg, measured as a mean difference, odds ratio, hazard ratio) changes across values of a participant-level covariate (eg, age, gender, biomarker). Single trials do not usually have sufficient power to detect genuine treatment-covariate interactions, which motivate the sharing of individual participant data (IPD) from multiple trials for meta-analysis. Here, we provide statistical recommendations for conducting and planning an IPD meta-analysis of randomized trials to examine treatment-covariate interactions. For conduct, two-stage and one-stage statistical models are described, and we recommend: (i) interactions should be estimated directly, and not by calculating differences in meta-analysis results for subgroups; (ii) interaction estimates should be based solely on within-study information; (iii) continuous covariates and outcomes should be analyzed on their continuous scale; (iv) nonlinear relationships should be examined for continuous covariates, using a multivariate meta-analysis of the trend (eg, using restricted cubic spline functions); and (v) translation of interactions into clinical practice is nontrivial, requiring individualized treatment effect prediction. For planning, we describe first why the decision to initiate an IPD meta-analysis project should not be based on between-study heterogeneity in the overall treatment effect; and second, how to calculate the power of a potential IPD meta-analysis project in advance of IPD collection, conditional on characteristics (eg, number of participants, standard deviation of covariates) of the trials (potentially) promising their IPD. Real IPD meta-analysis projects are used for illustration throughout.

A novel urinary biomarker predicts 1-year mortality after discharge from intensive care.

RATIONALE: The urinary proteome reflects molecular drivers of disease. OBJECTIVES: To construct a urinary proteomic biomarker predicting 1-year post-ICU mortality. METHODS: In 1243 patients, the urinary proteome was measured on ICU admission, using capillary electrophoresis coupled with mass spectrometry along with clinical variables, circulating biomarkers (BNP, hsTnT, active ADM, and NGAL), and urinary albumin. Methods included support vector modeling to construct the classifier, Cox regression, the integrated discrimination (IDI), and net reclassification (NRI) improvement, and area under the curve (AUC) to assess predictive accuracy, and Proteasix and protein-proteome interactome analyses. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: In the discovery (deaths/survivors, 70/299) and test (175/699) datasets, the new classifier ACM128, mainly consisting of collagen fragments, yielding AUCs of 0.755 (95% CI, 0.708-0.798) and 0.688 (0.656-0.719), respectively. While accounting for study site and clinical risk factors, hazard ratios in 1243 patients were 2.41 (2.00-2.91) for ACM128 (+ 1 SD), 1.24 (1.16-1.32) for the Charlson Comorbidity Index (+ 1 point), and ≥ 1.19 (P ≤ 0.022) for other biomarkers (+ 1 SD). ACM128 improved (P ≤ 0.0001) IDI (≥ + 0.50), NRI (≥ + 53.7), and AUC (≥ + 0.037) over and beyond clinical risk indicators and other biomarkers. Interactome mapping, using parental proteins derived from sequenced peptides included in ACM128 and in silico predicted proteases, including/excluding urinary collagen fragments (63/35 peptides), revealed as top molecular pathways protein digestion and absorption, lysosomal activity, and apoptosis. CONCLUSIONS: The urinary proteomic classifier ACM128 predicts the 1-year post-ICU mortality over and beyond clinical risk factors and other biomarkers and revealed molecular pathways potentially contributing to a fatal outcome.

Electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy in relation to peripheral and central blood pressure indices in a Nigerian population.

Purpose: Previous studies that addressed whether left ventricular hypertrophy is more closely associated with central than peripheral blood pressure (BP) have been inconsistent. Radial artery wave generated by applanation tonometry and calibrated with brachial BP in 162 adult Nigerians were analysed by using generalized transfer function to derive central BP.Materials and methods: We compared the associations of ECG voltages and left ventricular hypertrophy (ECG-LVH) as continuous and binary variables respectively with central and brachial BP indices.Results: In a multivariable adjusted analysis, 1 standard deviation (SD) increase in brachial systolic, diastolic, pulse and mean arterial pressures increased the Sokolow-Lyon QRS voltage by 0.34 (CI, 0.21-0.48; p < 0.0001), 0.21 (CI, 0.07-0.36; p < 0.05); 0.22 (CI, 0.9-0.34; p < 0.001) and 0.29 (CI, 0.14-0.43) similar to (p > 0.05) corresponding Sokolow-Lyon QRS increase of 0.26 (0.12-0.40, p < 0.001); 0.14 (0.00-0.28, p < 0.05); 0.24 (0.11-0.39; p < 0.001) and 0.19 (0.05-0.34, p < 0.05) respectively observed for 1 SD increment in central pressures. The odds ratio (OR) relating ECG-LVH to 1 SD increase in brachial systolic, pulse, and mean arterial pressures were 2.62 (CI, 1.49-4.65, p < 0.001); 1.88 (CI, 1.19-2.95, p < 0.01) and 2.16 (CI, 1.22-3.82, p < 0.01) was similar to (p > 0.05) corresponding OR of 2.41 (1.33-4.36, p < 0.01); 2.04 (1.23-3.37, p < 0.01); 2.00 (1.11-3.63, p < 0.001) observed for I SD increment in central pressures.Conclusion: Central and peripheral BP are similarly associated with Sokolow-Lyon ECG voltage and hypertrophy.

Central hemodynamics in relation to low-level environmental lead exposure.

Purpose: Arterial stiffness predicts cardiovascular complications. The association between arterial stiffness and blood lead (BL) remains poorly documented. We aimed to assess the association of central hemodynamic measurements, including pulse wave velocity (aPWV), with blood lead in a Flemish population.Materials and Methods: In this Flemish population study (mean age, 37.0 years; 48.3% women), 267 participants had their whole BL and 24-h urinary cadmium (UCd) measured by electrothermal atomic absorption spectrometry in 1985-2005. After 9.4 years (median), they underwent applanation tonometry to estimate central pulse pressure (cPP), the augmentation index (AI), pressure amplification (PA), and aPWV. The amplitudes of the forward (Pf) and backward (Pb) pulse waves and reflection index (RI) were derived by a pressure-based wave separation algorithm.Results: BL averaged 2.93 µg/dL (interquartile range, 1.80-4.70) and UCd 4.79 µg (2.91-7.85). Mean values were 45.0 ± 15.2 mm Hg for cPP, 24.4 ± 12.4% for AI, 1.34 ± 0.21 for PA, 7.65 ± 1.74 m/s for aPWV, 32.7 ± 9.9 mm Hg for Pf, 21.8 ± 8.4 mm Hg for Pb, and 66.9 ± 18.4% for RI. The multivariable-adjusted association sizes for a 2-fold higher BL were: +3.03% (95% confidence interval, 1.56, 4.50) for AI; -0.06 (-0.08, -0.04) for PA; 1.02 mm Hg (0.02, 2.02) for Pb; and 3.98% (1.71, 6.24) for RI (p ≤ .045). In 206 participants never on antihypertensive drug treatment, association sizes were +2.59 mm Hg (0.39, 4.79) for cPP and +0.26 m/s (0.03, 0.50) for aPWV. Analyses adjusted for co-exposure to cadmium were consistent.Conclusion: In conclusion, low-level environmental lead exposure possibly contributes to arterial stiffening and wave reflection from peripheral sites.

Renal function in relation to low-level environmental lead exposure.

BACKGROUND: Numerous studies suggested that occupational or environmental exposure to lead adversely affects renal function. However, most studies lost relevance because of the substantially lower current environmental lead exposure and all relied on serum creatinine to estimate glomerular filtration. We investigated the association of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), estimated from serum creatinine, cystatin C or both, with blood lead (BPb) using the baseline measurements of the ongoing Study for Promotion of Health in Recycling Lead (SPHERL; NCT02243904) in newly hired workers prior to significant occupational lead exposure. METHODS: Among 447 men (participation rate, 82.7%), we assessed the association of eGFR and the urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) with BPb across thirds of the BPb distribution using linear regression analysis. Fully adjusted models accounted for age, blood pressure, body mass index, the waist-to-hip ratio, smoking, the total-to-high-density-lipoprotein ratio, plasma glucose, serum γ-glutamyltransferase and antihypertensive drug treatment. RESULTS: Age averaged 28.7 (SD, 10.2) years (range, 19.1-31.8). Geometric mean BPb concentration was 4.34 µg/dL (5th-95th percentile interval, 0.9-14.8). In unadjusted and adjusted analyses, eGFR estimated from serum creatinine [mean (SD), 105.26 (15.2) mL/min/1.73 m2], serum cystatin C [mean (SD), 127.8 (13.8) mL/min/1.73 m2] or both [mean (SD), 111.9 (14.8) mL/min/1.73 m2] was not associated with BPb (P ≥ 0.36), whereas ACR [geometric mean, 4.32 mg/g (5th-95th percentile interval, 1.91-12.50)] was lower with higher BPb. CONCLUSIONS: At the BPb levels observed in this study, there was no evidence for an association between renal function and lead exposure.