Vulnerability of Arctic marine mammals to vessel traffic in the increasingly ice-free Northwest Passage and Northern Sea Route.

The fabled Northwest Passage and Northern Sea Route that were once the quests of early Western explorers are now increasingly sea ice-free, with routine vessel transits expected by midcentury. The potential impacts of this novel vessel traffic on endemic Arctic marine mammal (AMM) species are unknown despite their critical social and ecological roles in the ecosystem and widely recognized susceptibility to ice loss. We developed a vulnerability assessment of 80 subpopulations of seven AMM species to vessel traffic during the ice-free season. Vulnerability scores were based on the combined influence of spatially explicit exposure to the sea routes and a suite of sensitivity variables. More than half of AMM subpopulations (42/80) are exposed to open-water vessel transits in the Arctic sea routes. Narwhals (Monodon monoceros) were estimated to be most vulnerable to vessel impacts, given their high exposure and sensitivity, and polar bears (Ursus maritimus) were estimated to be the least vulnerable because of their low exposure and sensitivity. Regions with geographic bottlenecks, such as the Bering Strait and eastern Canadian Arctic, were characterized by two to three times higher vulnerability than more remote regions. These pinch points are obligatory pathways for both vessels and migratory AMMs, and so represent potentially high conflict areas but also opportunities for conservation-informed planning. Some of the species and regions identified as least vulnerable were also characterized by high uncertainty, highlighting additional data and monitoring needs. Our quantification of the heterogeneity of risk across AMM species provides a necessary first step toward developing best practices for maritime industries poised to advance into this rapidly changing seascape.

Transient benefits of climate change for a high-Arctic polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulation.

Kane Basin (KB) is one of the world's most northerly polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulations, where bears have historically inhabited a mix of thick multiyear and annual sea ice year-round. Currently, KB is transitioning to a seasonally ice-free region because of climate change. This ecological shift has been hypothesized to benefit polar bears in the near-term due to thinner ice with increased biological production, although this has not been demonstrated empirically. We assess sea-ice changes in KB together with changes in polar bear movements, seasonal ranges, body condition, and reproductive metrics obtained from capture-recapture (physical and genetic) and satellite telemetry studies during two study periods (1993-1997 and 2012-2016). The annual cycle of sea-ice habitat in KB shifted from a year-round ice platform (~50% coverage in summer) in the 1990s to nearly complete melt-out in summer (<5% coverage) in the 2010s. The mean duration between sea-ice retreat and advance increased from 109 to 160 days (p = .004). Between the 1990s and 2010s, adult female (AF) seasonal ranges more than doubled in spring and summer and were significantly larger in all months. Body condition scores improved for all ages and both sexes. Mean litter sizes of cubs-of-the-year (C0s) and yearlings (C1s), and the number of C1s per AF, did not change between decades. The date of spring sea-ice retreat in the previous year was positively correlated with C1 litter size, suggesting smaller litters following years with earlier sea-ice breakup. Our study provides evidence for range expansion, improved body condition, and stable reproductive performance in the KB polar bear subpopulation. These changes, together with a likely increasing subpopulation abundance, may reflect the shift from thick, multiyear ice to thinner, seasonal ice with higher biological productivity. The duration of these benefits is unknown because, under unmitigated climate change, continued sea-ice loss is expected to eventually have negative demographic and ecological effects on all polar bears.

Interrelated ecological impacts of climate change on an apex predator.

Climate change has broad ecological implications for species that rely on sensitive habitats. For some top predators, loss of habitat is expected to lead to cascading behavioral, nutritional, and reproductive changes that ultimately accelerate population declines. In the case of the polar bear (Ursus maritimus), declining Arctic sea ice reduces access to prey and lengthens seasonal fasting periods. We used a novel combination of physical capture, biopsy darting, and visual aerial observation data to project reproductive performance for polar bears by linking sea ice loss to changes in habitat use, body condition (i.e., fatness), and cub production. Satellite telemetry data from 43 (1991-1997) and 38 (2009-2015) adult female polar bears in the Baffin Bay subpopulation showed that bears now spend an additional 30 d on land (90 d in total) in the 2000s compared to the 1990s, a change closely correlated with changes in spring sea ice breakup and fall sea ice formation. Body condition declined for all sex, age, and reproductive classes and was positively correlated with sea ice availability in the current and previous year. Furthermore, cub litter size was positively correlated with maternal condition and spring breakup date (i.e., later breakup leading to larger litters), and negatively correlated with the duration of the ice-free period (i.e., longer ice-free periods leading to smaller litters). Based on these relationships, we projected reproductive performance three polar bear generations into the future (approximately 35 yr). Results indicate that two-cub litters, previously the norm, could largely disappear from Baffin Bay as sea ice loss continues. Our findings demonstrate how concurrent analysis of multiple data types collected over long periods from polar bears can provide a mechanistic understanding of the ecological implications of climate change. This information is needed for long-term conservation planning, which includes quantitative harvest risk assessments that incorporate estimated or assumed trends in future environmental carrying capacity.

Antigenic cartography of H1N1 influenza viruses using sequence-based antigenic distance calculation.

BACKGROUND: The ease at which influenza virus sequence data can be used to estimate antigenic relationships between strains and the existence of databases containing sequence data for hundreds of thousands influenza strains make sequence-based antigenic distance estimates an attractive approach to researchers. Antigenic mismatch between circulating strains and vaccine strains results in significantly decreased vaccine effectiveness. Furthermore, antigenic relatedness between the vaccine strain and the strains an individual was originally primed with can affect the cross-reactivity of the antibody response. Thus, understanding the antigenic relationships between influenza viruses that have circulated is important to both vaccinologists and immunologists. RESULTS: Here we develop a method of mapping antigenic relationships between influenza virus stains using a sequence-based antigenic distance approach (SBM). We used a modified version of the p-all-epitope sequence-based antigenic distance calculation, which determines the antigenic relatedness between strains using influenza hemagglutinin (HA) genetic coding sequence data and provide experimental validation of the p-all-epitope calculation. We calculated the antigenic distance between 4838 H1N1 viruses isolated from infected humans between 1918 and 2016. We demonstrate, for the first time, that sequence-based antigenic distances of H1N1 Influenza viruses can be accurately represented in 2-dimenstional antigenic cartography using classic multidimensional scaling. Additionally, the model correctly predicted decreases in cross-reactive antibody levels with 87% accuracy and was highly reproducible with even when small numbers of sequences were used. CONCLUSION: This work provides a highly accurate and precise bioinformatics tool that can be used to assess immune risk as well as design optimized vaccination strategies. SBM accurately estimated the antigenic relationship between strains using HA sequence data. Antigenic maps of H1N1 virus strains reveal that strains cluster antigenically similar to what has been reported for H3N2 viruses. Furthermore, we demonstrated that genetic variation differs across antigenic sites and discuss the implications.

Decadal shifts in autumn migration timing by Pacific Arctic beluga whales are related to delayed annual sea ice formation.

Migrations are often influenced by seasonal environmental gradients that are increasingly being altered by climate change. The consequences of rapid changes in Arctic sea ice have the potential to affect migrations of a number of marine species whose timing is temporally matched to seasonal sea ice cover. This topic has not been investigated for Pacific Arctic beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) that follow matrilineally maintained autumn migrations in the waters around Alaska and Russia. For the sympatric Eastern Chukchi Sea ('Chukchi') and Eastern Beaufort Sea ('Beaufort') beluga populations, we examined changes in autumn migration timing as related to delayed regional sea ice freeze-up since the 1990s, using two independent data sources (satellite telemetry data and passive acoustics) for both populations. We compared dates of migration between 'early' (1993-2002) and 'late' (2004-2012) tagging periods. During the late tagging period, Chukchi belugas had significantly delayed migrations (by 2 to >4 weeks, depending on location) from the Beaufort and Chukchi seas. Spatial analyses also revealed that departure from Beaufort Sea foraging regions by Chukchi whales was postponed in the late period. Chukchi beluga autumn migration timing occurred significantly later as regional sea ice freeze-up timing became later in the Beaufort, Chukchi, and Bering seas. In contrast, Beaufort belugas did not shift migration timing between periods, nor was migration timing related to freeze-up timing, other than for southward migration at the Bering Strait. Passive acoustic data from 2008 to 2014 provided independent and supplementary support for delayed migration from the Beaufort Sea (4 day yr-1 ) by Chukchi belugas. Here, we report the first phenological study examining beluga whale migrations within the context of their rapidly transforming Pacific Arctic ecosystem, suggesting flexible responses that may enable their persistence yet also complicate predictions of how belugas may fare in the future.

Conservation status of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in relation to projected sea-ice declines.

Loss of Arctic sea ice owing to climate change is the primary threat to polar bears throughout their range. We evaluated the potential response of polar bears to sea-ice declines by (i) calculating generation length (GL) for the species, which determines the timeframe for conservation assessments; (ii) developing a standardized sea-ice metric representing important habitat; and (iii) using statistical models and computer simulation to project changes in the global population under three approaches relating polar bear abundance to sea ice. Mean GL was 11.5 years. Ice-covered days declined in all subpopulation areas during 1979-2014 (median -1.26 days year-1). The estimated probabilities that reductions in the mean global population size of polar bears will be greater than 30%, 50% and 80% over three generations (35-41 years) were 0.71 (range 0.20-0.95), 0.07 (range 0-0.35) and less than 0.01 (range 0-0.02), respectively. According to IUCN Red List reduction thresholds, which provide a common measure of extinction risk across taxa, these results are consistent with listing the species as vulnerable. Our findings support the potential for large declines in polar bear numbers owing to sea-ice loss, and highlight near-term uncertainty in statistical projections as well as the sensitivity of projections to different plausible assumptions.

Arctic marine mammal population status, sea ice habitat loss, and conservation recommendations for the 21st century.

Arctic marine mammals (AMMs) are icons of climate change, largely because of their close association with sea ice. However, neither a circumpolar assessment of AMM status nor a standardized metric of sea ice habitat change is available. We summarized available data on abundance and trend for each AMM species and recognized subpopulation. We also examined species diversity, the extent of human use, and temporal trends in sea ice habitat for 12 regions of the Arctic by calculating the dates of spring sea ice retreat and fall sea ice advance from satellite data (1979-2013). Estimates of AMM abundance varied greatly in quality, and few studies were long enough for trend analysis. Of the AMM subpopulations, 78% (61 of 78) are legally harvested for subsistence purposes. Changes in sea ice phenology have been profound. In all regions except the Bering Sea, the duration of the summer (i.e., reduced ice) period increased by 5-10 weeks and by >20 weeks in the Barents Sea between 1979 and 2013. In light of generally poor data, the importance of human use, and forecasted environmental changes in the 21st century, we recommend the following for effective AMM conservation: maintain and improve comanagement by local, federal, and international partners; recognize spatial and temporal variability in AMM subpopulation response to climate change; implement monitoring programs with clear goals; mitigate cumulative impacts of increased human activity; and recognize the limits of current protected species legislation.

The influence of continuous vs. pulsed laser excitation on single quantum dot photophysics.

The impact of pulsed versus continuous wave (cw) laser excitation on the photophysical properties of single quantum dots (QDs) has been investigated in an experiment in which all macroscopic variables are identical except the nature of laser excitation. Pulsed excitation exaggerates the effects of photobleaching, results in a lower probability of long ON fluorescence blinking events, and leads to shorter fluorescence lifetimes with respect to cw excitation at the same wavelength and average intensity. Spectral wandering, biexciton quantum yields, and power law exponents that describe fluorescence blinking are largely insensitive to the nature of laser excitation. These results explicitly illustrate important similarities and differences in fluorescence dynamics between pulsed and cw excitation, enabling more meaningful comparisons between literature reports and aiding in the design of new experiments to mitigate possible influences of high photon flux on QDs.

Females roam while males patrol: divergence in breeding season movements of pack-ice polar bears (Ursus maritimus).

Intraspecific differences in movement behaviour reflect different tactics used by individuals or sexes to favour strategies that maximize fitness. We report movement data collected from n = 23 adult male polar bears with novel ear-attached transmitters in two separate pack ice subpopulations over five breeding seasons. We compared movements with n = 26 concurrently tagged adult females, and analysed velocities, movement tortuosity, range sizes and habitat selection with respect to sex, reproductive status and body mass. There were no differences in 4-day displacements or sea ice habitat selection for sex or population. By contrast, adult females in all years and both populations had significantly more linear movements and significantly larger breeding range sizes than males. We hypothesized that differences were related to encounter rates, and used observed movement metrics to parametrize a simulation model of male-male and male-female encounter. The simulation showed that the more tortuous movement of males leads to significantly longer times to male-male encounter, while having little impact on male-female encounter. By contrast, linear movements of females are consistent with a prioritized search for sparsely distributed prey. These results suggest a possible mechanism for explaining the smaller breeding range sizes of some solitary male carnivores compared to females.

Gold (III) Chloride-Catalyzed 6-endo-trig Oxa-Michael Addition Reactions for Diastereoselective Synthesis of Fused Tetrahydropyranones.

Alkynones were treated with boron trifluoride diethyl etherate to generate ß-iodoallenolates, which underwent intramolecular aldol reactions to produce cycloalkenyl alcohols. Diastereoselective oxa-Michael ring closure could then be induced by treatment with a catalytic amount of gold(III) chloride, affording highly functionalized tetrahydropyran-containing ring systems.

NMR analysis of G-protein betagamma subunit complexes reveals a dynamic G(alpha)-Gbetagamma subunit interface and multiple protein recognition modes.

G-protein betagamma (Gbetagamma) subunits interact with a wide range of molecular partners including: G(alpha) subunits, effectors, peptides, and small molecule inhibitors. The molecular mechanisms underlying the ability to accommodate this wide range of structurally distinct binding partners are not well understood. To uncover the role of protein flexibility and alterations in protein conformation in molecular recognition by Gbetagamma, a method for site-specific (15)N-labeling of Gbeta-Trp residue backbone and indole amines in insect cells was developed. Transverse Relaxation Optimized Spectroscopy-Heteronuclear Single-Quantum Coherence Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (TROSY-HSQC NMR) analysis of (15)N-Trp Gbetagamma identified well-dispersed signals for the individual Trp residue side chain and amide positions. Surprisingly, a wide range of signal intensities was observed in the spectrum, likely representing a range of backbone and side chain mobilities. The signal for GbetaW99 indole was very intense, suggesting a high level of mobility on the protein surface and molecular dynamics simulations indicate that GbetaW99 is highly mobile on the nanosecond timescale in comparison with other Gbeta tryptophans. Binding of peptides and phosducin dramatically altered the mobility of GbetaW99 and GbetaW332 in the binding site and the chemical shifts at sites distant from the direct binding surface in distinct ways. In contrast, binding of G(alpha)(i1)-GDP to Gbetagamma had relatively little effect on the spectrum and, most surprisingly, did not significantly alter Trp mobility at the subunit interface. This suggests the inactive heterotrimer in solution adopts a conformation with an open subunit interface a large percentage of the time. Overall, these data show that Gbetagamma subunits explore a range of conformations that can be exploited during molecular recognition by diverse binding partners.

The significance of the north water polynya to arctic top predators.

The North Water polynya (~76°N to 79°N and 70°W to 80°W) is known to be an important habitat for several species of marine mammals and sea birds. For millennia, it has provided the basis for subsistence hunting and human presence in the northernmost part of Baffin Bay. The abundance of air-breathing top predators also represents a potential source of nutrient cycling that maintains primary production. In this study, aerial surveys conducted in 2009 and 2010 were used for the first time to map the distribution and estimate the abundance of top predators during spring in the North Water. Belugas (Delphinapterus leucas) were not detected north of 77°20'N but were found along the coast of West Greenland and offshore in the middle of the North Water with an abundance estimated at 2245 (95 % CI 1811-2783). Narwhals (Monodon monoceros) were widely distributed on the eastern side of the North Water with an estimate of abundance of 7726 (3761-15 870). Walruses (Odobenus rosmarus) were found across the North Water over both shallow and deep (>500 m) water with an estimated abundance of 1499 (1077-2087). Bearded (Erignathus barbatus) and ringed seals (Phoca hispida) used the large floes of ice in the southeastern part of the North Water for hauling out. Most polar bears (Ursus maritimus) were detected in the southern part of the polynya. The abundances of bearded and ringed seals were 6016 (3322-10 893) and 9529 (5460-16 632), respectively, and that of polar bears was 60 (12-292). Three sea bird species were distributed along the Greenland coast (eiders, Somateria spp.), in leads and cracks close to the Greenland coast (little auks, Alle alle) or widely in open water (thick-billed guillemots, Uria lomvia).

Geometric restraint drives on- and off-pathway catalysis by the Escherichia coli menaquinol:fumarate reductase.

Complex II superfamily members catalyze the kinetically difficult interconversion of succinate and fumarate. Due to the relative simplicity of complex II substrates and their similarity to other biologically abundant small molecules, substrate specificity presents a challenge in this system. In order to identify determinants for on-pathway catalysis, off-pathway catalysis, and enzyme inhibition, crystal structures of Escherichia coli menaquinol:fumarate reductase (QFR), a complex II superfamily member, were determined bound to the substrate, fumarate, and the inhibitors oxaloacetate, glutarate, and 3-nitropropionate. Optical difference spectroscopy and computational modeling support a model where QFR twists the dicarboxylate, activating it for catalysis. Orientation of the C2-C3 double bond of activated fumarate parallel to the C(4a)-N5 bond of FAD allows orbital overlap between the substrate and the cofactor, priming the substrate for nucleophilic attack. Off-pathway catalysis, such as the conversion of malate to oxaloacetate or the activation of the toxin 3-nitropropionate may occur when inhibitors bind with a similarly activated bond in the same position. Conversely, inhibitors that do not orient an activatable bond in this manner, such as glutarate and citrate, are excluded from catalysis and act as inhibitors of substrate binding. These results support a model where electronic interactions via geometric constraint and orbital steering underlie catalysis by QFR.

Controlled oxidation of remote sp3 C-H bonds in artemisinin via P450 catalysts with fine-tuned regio- and stereoselectivity.

The selective oxyfunctionalization of isolated sp(3) C-H bonds in complex molecules represents a formidable challenge in organic chemistry. Here, we describe a rational, systematic strategy to expedite the development of P450 oxidation catalysts with refined regio- and stereoselectivity for the hydroxylation of remote, unactivated C-H sites in a complex scaffold. Using artemisinin as model substrate, we demonstrate how a three-tier strategy involving first-sphere active site mutagenesis, high-throughput P450 fingerprinting, and fingerprint-driven P450 reactivity predictions enabled the rapid evolution of three efficient biocatalysts for the selective hydroxylation of a primary and a secondary C-H site (with both S and R stereoselectivity) in a relevant yet previously inaccessible region of this complex natural product. The evolved P450 variants could be applied to provide direct access to the desired hydroxylated derivatives at preparative scales (0.4 g) and in high isolated yields (>90%), thereby enabling further elaboration of this molecule. As an example, enantiopure C7-fluorinated derivatives of the clinical antimalarial drugs artesunate and artemether, in which a major metabolically sensitive site is protected by means of a C-H to C-F substitution, were afforded via P450-mediated chemoenzymatic synthesis.

Protocol to use TopNet for gene regulatory network modeling using gene expression data from perturbation experiments.

Inference of gene regulatory networks from gene perturbation experiments is the most reliable approach for investigating interdependence between genes. Here, we describe the initial gene perturbations, expression measurements, and preparation steps, followed by network modeling using TopNet. Summarization and visualization of the estimated networks and optional genetic testing of dependencies revealed by the network model are demonstrated. While developed for gene perturbation experiments, TopNet models data in which nodes are both perturbed and measured. For complete details on the use and execution of this protocol, please refer to McMurray et al. (2021).

Glacial ice supports a distinct and undocumented polar bear subpopulation persisting in late 21st-century sea-ice conditions.

Polar bears are susceptible to climate warming because of their dependence on sea ice, which is declining rapidly. We present the first evidence for a genetically distinct and functionally isolated group of polar bears in Southeast Greenland. These bears occupy sea-ice conditions resembling those projected for the High Arctic in the late 21st century, with an annual ice-free period that is >100 days longer than the estimated fasting threshold for the species. Whereas polar bears in most of the Arctic depend on annual sea ice to catch seals, Southeast Greenland bears have a year-round hunting platform in the form of freshwater glacial mélange. This suggests that marine-terminating glaciers, although of limited availability, may serve as previously unrecognized climate refugia. Conservation of Southeast Greenland polar bears, which meet criteria for recognition as the world's 20th polar bear subpopulation, is necessary to preserve the genetic diversity and evolutionary potential of the species.

Estimating binding affinities by docking/scoring methods using variable protonation states.

To investigate the effects of multiple protonation states on protein-ligand recognition, we generated alternative protonation states for selected titratable groups of ligands and receptors. The selection of states was based on the predicted pK(a) of the unbound receptor and ligand and the proximity of titratable groups of the receptor to the binding site. Various ligand tautomer states were also considered. An independent docking calculation was run for each state. Several protocols were examined: using an ensemble of all generated states of ligand and receptor, using only the most probable state of the unbound ligand/receptor, and using only the state giving the most favorable docking score. The accuracies of these approaches were compared, using a set of 176 protein-ligand complexes (15 receptors) for which crystal structures and measured binding affinities are available. The best agreement with experiment was obtained when ligand poses from experimental crystal structures were used. For 9 of 15 receptors, using an ensemble of all generated protonation states of the ligand and receptor gave the best correlation between calculated and measured affinities.

Conformational flexibility and binding interactions of the G protein ßγ heterodimer.

Previous NMR experiments on unbound G protein ßγ heterodimer suggested that particular residues in the binding interface are mobile on the nanosecond timescale. In this work we performed nanosecond-timescale molecular dynamics simulations to investigate conformational changes and dynamics of Gßγ in the presence of several binding partners: a high-affinity peptide (SIGK), phosducin, and the GDP-bound α subunit. In these simulations, the high mobility of GßW99 was reduced by SIGK, and it appeared that a tyrosine might stabilize GßW99 by hydrophobic or aromatic stacking interactions in addition to hydrogen bonds. Simulations of the phosducin-Gßγ complex showed that the mobility of GßW99 was restricted, consistent with inferences from NMR. However, large-scale conformational changes of Gßγ due to binding, which were hypothesized in the NMR study, were not observed in the simulations, most likely due to their short (nanosecond) duration. A pocket consisting of hydrophobic amino acids on Gα appears to restrict GßW99 mobility in the crystal structure of the Gαßγ? heterotrimer. The simulation trajectories are consistent with this idea. However, local conformational changes of residues GßW63, GßW211, GßW297, GßW332, and GßW339 were detected during the MD simulations. As expected, the magnitude of atomic fluctuations observed in simulations was greater for α than for the ßγ subunits, suggesting that α has greater flexibility. These observations support the notion that to maintain the high mobility of GßW99 observed by solution NMR requires that the Gß-α interface must open up on time scale longer than can be observed in nanosecond scale simulations.

Gene network modeling via TopNet reveals functional dependencies between diverse tumor-critical mediator genes.

Malignant cell transformation and the underlying reprogramming of gene expression require the cooperation of multiple oncogenic mutations. This cooperation is reflected in the synergistic regulation of non-mutant downstream genes, so-called cooperation response genes (CRGs). CRGs affect diverse hallmark features of cancer cells and are not known to be functionally connected. However, they act as critical mediators of the cancer phenotype at an unexpectedly high frequency >50%, as indicated by genetic perturbations. Here, we demonstrate that CRGs function within a network of strong genetic interdependencies that are critical to the malignant state. Our network modeling methodology, TopNet, takes the approach of incorporating uncertainty in the underlying gene perturbation data and can identify non-linear gene interactions. In the dense space of gene connectivity, TopNet reveals a sparse topological gene network architecture, effectively pinpointing functionally relevant gene interactions. Thus, among diverse potential applications, TopNet has utility for identification of non-mutant targets for cancer intervention.

Quantum Dots for Improved Single-Molecule Localization Microscopy.

Colloidal semiconductor quantum dots (QDs) have long established their versatility and utility for the visualization of biological interactions. On the single-particle level, QDs have demonstrated superior photophysical properties compared to organic dye molecules or fluorescent proteins, but it remains an open question as to which of these fundamental characteristics are most significant with respect to the performance of QDs for imaging beyond the diffraction limit. Here, we demonstrate significant enhancement in achievable localization precision in QD-labeled neurons compared to neurons labeled with an organic fluorophore. Additionally, we identify key photophysical parameters of QDs responsible for this enhancement and compare these parameters to reported values for commonly used fluorophores for super-resolution imaging.