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Can AI substitute a human physician's second opinion? Recently the Journal of Medical Ethics published two contrasting views: Kempt and Nagel advocate for using artificial intelligence (AI) for a second opinion except when its conclusions significantly diverge from the initial physician's while Jongsma and Sand argue for a second human opinion irrespective of AI's concurrence or dissent. The crux of this debate hinges on the prevalence and impact of 'false confirmation'-a scenario where AI erroneously validates an incorrect human decision. These errors seem exceedingly difficult to detect, reminiscent of heuristics akin to confirmation bias. However, this debate has yet to engage with the emergence of explainable AI (XAI), which elaborates on why the AI tool reaches its diagnosis. To progress this debate, we outline a framework for conceptualising decision-making errors in physician-AI collaborations. We then review emerging evidence on the magnitude of false confirmation errors. Our simulations show that they are likely to be pervasive in clinical practice, decreasing diagnostic accuracy to between 5% and 30%. We conclude with a pragmatic approach to employing AI as a second opinion, emphasising the need for physicians to make clinical decisions before consulting AI; employing nudges to increase awareness of false confirmations and critically engaging with XAI explanations. This approach underscores the necessity for a cautious, evidence-based methodology when integrating AI into clinical decision-making.
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BACKGROUND: Parenting-related leave policies have gained increasing endorsement across Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries in recent decades. Previous reviews have focused on the short-term impacts and found predominantly positive effects on children. Although there is a growing interest in the long-term impact during adolescence and young adulthood, a comprehensive assessment of this aspect is currently lacking. METHODS: We systematically reviewed studies from three electronic databases (Scopus, Web of Science and PubMed), which used quasi-experimental design and examined policies legislating the introduction or expansion of parenting-related leave policies in North America or Europe. We looked at studies focused on well-being beyond the age of 12 and analyzed the findings across different domains of well-being: health, education and labour market outcomes. RESULTS: The quasi-experimental evidence is rather limited. The introduction of leave policies or gender-specific quotas produces substantial benefits in the long run. Further, maternal socioeconomic and educational background appears to play a substantial moderating role between leave and adolescents' well-being. Adolescents with mothers who have higher levels of education have demonstrated a more pronounced advantage from the extended time spent together, thereby accentuating pre-existing disparities. CONCLUSIONS: Though the expansion of already long leaves might not generate significant outcomes, the introduction of leave policies or gender-specific quotas produces substantial long-term benefits. This evidence entails considerable policy implications for countries that lack a national leave policy or offer only short durations of paid leave, such as the USA.
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Licença Parental , Humanos , Adolescente , Feminino , Europa (Continente) , Masculino , Poder Familiar/psicologia , América do Norte , Política Pública , Fatores SocioeconômicosRESUMO
As retirement ages increase around the world, not all workers may be equally able to extend their working lives. In this article, we examine the health and labor market effects of an Italian pension reform that suddenly increased the normal retirement age up to 7 years for women and up to 2 years for men. To do this, we use linked labor and healthcare administrative data, jointly with survey data and difference-in-difference methods. Our results show that the reform was effective in postponing retirement among both genders, as pension claiming dropped substantially for older workers. However, there were also side effects as the reform significantly pushed previously employed men and women into unemployment and disability pension. Among women only, the reform also increased sick leave and hospitalizations related to mental health and injuries. These effects were driven by women with previously low health status, suggesting that undifferentiated and abrupt increases in pension age might harm more vulnerable workers. Coherently with the milder tightening of retirement age experienced by men, labor market responses were smaller in size, and they did not suffer any significant health effects.
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Pensões , Aposentadoria , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Ocupações , Desemprego , EmpregoRESUMO
OBJECTIVES: Research identifies that multinational corporations, including The Coca-Cola Company ('Coca-Cola'), seek to influence public health research and policy through scientific events, such as academic and professional conferences. This study aims to understand how different forms of funding and sponsorship impact the relationship between Coca-Cola, academic institutions, public health organisations, academics and researchers. DESIGN: The study was conducted using Freedom of Information (FOI) requests and systematic website searches. SETTING: Data were collected by twenty-two FOI requests to institutions in the USA and UK, resulting in the disclosure of 11 488 pages, including emails and attachments relating to 239 events between 2009 and 2018. We used the Wayback Machine to review historical website data to evaluate evidence from 151 available official conference websites. PARTICIPANTS: N/A. RESULTS: Documents suggest that Coca-Cola provides direct financial support to institutions and organisations hosting events in exchange for benefits, including influence over proceedings. Coca-Cola also provided direct financial support to speakers and researchers, sometimes conditional on media interviews. Also, indirect financial support passed through Coca-Cola-financed non-profits. Often, such financial support was not readily identifiable, and third-party involvement further concealed Coca-Cola funding. CONCLUSION: Coca-Cola exerts direct influence on academic institutions and organisations that convene major public health conferences and events. These events offer Coca-Cola a vehicle for its messaging and amplifying viewpoints favourable to Coca-Cola's interests. Such corporate-sponsored events should be viewed as instruments of industry marketing. Stronger rules and safeguards are needed to prevent hidden industry influence, such as complete disclosure of all corporate contributions for public health conferences and their speakers.
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Bebidas Gaseificadas , Indústria Alimentícia , Humanos , Marketing , Políticas , Saúde PúblicaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdown measures posed an unprecedented challenge to the crucial role of grandparenting in family-oriented cultures, such as Italy. Reduced contact with grandchildren during this period potentially threatened grandparents' mental health and well-being. METHODS: We analysed data from the LOckdown and lifeSTyles in Lombardia cross-sectional study conducted in November 2020. The study included a representative sample of 4400 older adults from Lombardy, Italy, of which 1289 provided childcare to their grandchildren. RESULTS: A decrease in self-reported grandparenting was associated with an increased likelihood of experiencing depressive symptoms among grandparents (OR 1.50, 95% CI 1.01-2.24). Conversely, an increase in grandparenting was linked to poorer sleep quality (OR 11.67, 95% CI 5.88-23.17) and reduced sleep quantity (OR 2.53, 95% CI 1.45-4.41). CONCLUSIONS: Despite the barriers posed by the pandemic, grandparenting played a beneficial role in maintaining the mental health and well-being of older adults. However, it is crucial to recognise specific vulnerabilities, such as gender, feelings of hopelessness and overcrowding, which can have detrimental effects during and beyond emergency situations. Careful attention to these factors is essential for developing targeted support systems and interventions aimed at safeguarding the mental health of older adults and enhancing their resilience in crises.
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Avós , Saúde Mental , Humanos , Idoso , Avós/psicologia , Pandemias , Estudos Transversais , FamíliaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Few studies have focused on changes in health and social services access due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed to describe changes in the use of selected health and social home services due to the pandemic and to investigate potential associated factors, including socio-demographic characteristics, number of chronic diseases and mental health indicators, among older Italian individuals. METHODS: We analysed data from the LOST in Lombardia cross-sectional study conducted in November 2020 on a large representative sample of 4400 individuals aged ⩾65 years. To identify potential factors associated with the increased use of three selected health and social home services, we estimated odds ratios (OR) and confidence intervals (CI) using multivariable logistic regression models. RESULTS: Compared to the year before, 5.0% of older adults increased help from domestic workers (vs. 6.9% reducing) during the pandemic, 4.4% increased help from non-familiar caregivers (vs. 1.3% decreasing) and 4.7% increased medical home visits (vs. 1.0% decreasing). An increase in the use of these services was more frequent among participants with co-morbidities (p for trend <0.001), especially with diabetes (for caregivers: OR=12.2, 95% CI 6.0-24.8), and worse mental health (for caregivers and for those with a GAD-2 score ⩾3 vs. <3: OR=10.6, 95% CI 5.8-19.4). Conversely, people living in more crowded households less frequently increased health and social services use during the pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: Our results should inform targeted interventions for the identified vulnerable groups to close the gap in health and social inequities.
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BACKGROUND: Far-right politicians in several countries have been vocal opponents of COVID-19 vaccination. But can this threaten vaccine roll-out? METHODS: We take advantage of repeated cross-sectional surveys with samples of around 3800 individuals across Spain conducted monthly from December 2020 to January 2022 (n = 51â294) to examine any association between far-right politics and vaccine hesitancy through the whole vaccine roll-out. RESULTS: Consistent with prior data, we found that far-right supporters were almost twice as likely to be vaccine-hesitant than the overall population in December 2020, before vaccines became available. However, with a successful vaccine roll out, this difference shrank, reaching non-significance by September 2021. From October 2021, however, vaccine hesitancy rebounded among this group at a time when the leadership of the far-right promoted a 'freedom of choice' discourse common among anti-vax supporters. By the latest month analysed (January 2022), far-right voters had returned to being twice as likely to be vaccine-hesitant and 7 percentage points less likely to be vaccinated than the general population. CONCLUSIONS: Our results are consistent with evidence that far-right politicians can encourage vaccine hesitancy. Nonetheless, we show that public attitudes towards vaccination are not immutable. Whereas a rapid and effective vaccine rollout can help to overcome the resistance of far-right voters to get vaccinated, they also seem to be susceptible to their party leader's discourse on vaccines.
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COVID-19 , Vacinas , Humanos , Vacinas contra COVID-19 , Estudos Transversais , Espanha/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , VacinaçãoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: People who reach old age enjoying good physical and mental health can be defined as (health) "superheroes", given their relatively low impact on healthcare expenditure and the desirable model they represent. AIM: To evaluate prevalence and possible determinants of being "physical superheroes" (i.e., free from the ten major chronic conditions, plus obesity), "mental superheroes" (i.e., free from major mental symptoms), and "superheroes" (i.e., both mental and physical superheroes). METHODS: A telephone-based cross-sectional study (LOST in Lombardia) was conducted in November 2020 (i.e., during the COVID-19 pandemic) on a representative sample of 4,400 adults aged ≥ 65 years from Lombardy region, northern Italy. All participants provided both current data and data referring to one year before. RESULTS: Mental and physical superheroes were 59.0% and 17.6%, respectively. Superheroes were 12.8% overall, 15.1% among men, and 11.1% among women; 20.2% among individuals aged 65-69 years, 11.3% among 70-74, 10.0% among 75-79, and 8.3% among ≥ 80 years. Multivariable analysis showed that female sex, higher age, disadvantaged socio-economic status, and physical inactivity (p for trend < 0.001) were inversely related to being superheroes. People not smoking (adjusted odds ratio, aOR = 1.40), alcohol abstainers (aOR = 1.30), and those free from feelings of hopelessness (aOR = 5.92) more frequently met the definition of superheroes. During COVID-19 pandemic, the proportion of superheroes decreased by 16.3%. CONCLUSIONS: Differences in the older adults' health status are largely attributable to their lifestyles but are also likely due to gender, educational, and socio-economic disparities, which should be properly addressed by public health policies.
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COVID-19 , Pandemias , Masculino , Humanos , Feminino , Idoso , Fatores de Risco , Estudos Transversais , Obesidade/epidemiologia , COVID-19/epidemiologiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: There is increasing recognition of including social determinants of health (SDOH) in teaching for future doctors. However, the educational methods and the extent of integration into the curriculum vary considerably-this scoping review is aimed at how SDOH has been introduced into medical schools' curricula. METHODS: A systematic search was performed of six electronic databases, including PubMed, Education Source, Scopus, OVID (Medline), APA Psych Info, and ERIC. Articles were excluded if they did not cover the SDOH curriculum for medical students; were based on service-learning rather than didactic content; were pilot courses, or were not in English, leaving eight articles in the final study. RESULTS: The initial search yielded 654 articles after removing duplicates. In the first screening step, 588 articles were excluded after applying inclusion and exclusion criteria and quality assessment; we examined 66 articles, a total of eight included in the study. There was considerable heterogeneity in the content, structure and duration of SDOH curricula. Of the eight included studies, six were in the United States(U.S.), one in the United Kingdom (U.K.) and one in Israel. Four main conceptual frameworks were invoked: the U.S. Healthy People 2020, two World Health Organisation frameworks (The Life Course and the Michael Marmot's Social Determinants of Health), and the National Academic of Science, Engineering, and Medicine's (Framework For educating Health Professionals to Address the Social Determinants of Health). In general, programs that lasted longer appeared to perform better than shorter-duration programmes. Students favoured interactive, experiential-learning teaching methods over the traditional classroom-based teaching methods. CONCLUSION: The incorporation of well-structured SDOH curricula capturing both local specification and a global framework, combined with a combination of traditional and interactive teaching methods over extended periods, may be helpful in steps for creating lifelong learners and socially accountable medical school education.
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Educação Médica , Estudantes de Medicina , Humanos , Determinantes Sociais da Saúde , Currículo , Aprendizagem Baseada em ProblemasRESUMO
Evidence linking past experiences of worsening health with support for radical political views has generated concerns about the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. The influenza pandemic that began in 1918 had a devastating health impact: 4.1 million Italians contracted influenza and about 500 000 died. We tested the hypothesis that deaths from the 1918 influenza pandemic contributed to the rise of Fascism in Italy. To provide a "thicker" interpretation of these patterns, we applied historical text mining to the newspaper Il Popolo d'Italia (Mussolini's newspaper). Our observations were consistent with evidence from other contexts that worsening mortality rates can fuel radical politics. Unequal impacts of pandemics may contribute to political polarization. (Am J Public Health. 2022;112(2):242-247. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306574).
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Fascismo , Influenza Pandêmica, 1918-1919/mortalidade , Cidades , História do Século XX , Humanos , Itália , MortalidadeRESUMO
The COVID-19 pandemic has been associated with worsening mental health but it is unclear whether this is a direct consequence of containment measures, like "Stay at Home" orders, or due to other considerations, such as fear and uncertainty about becoming infected. It is also unclear how responsive mental health is to a changing situation. Exploiting the different policy responses to COVID-19 in England and Scotland and using a difference-in-difference analysis, we show that easing lockdown measures rapidly improves mental health. The results were driven by individuals with lower socioeconomic position, in terms of education or financial situation, who benefited more from the end of the strict lockdown, whereas they suffered a larger decline in mental health where the lockdown was extended. Overall, mental health appears to be more sensitive to the imposition of containment policies than to the evolution of the pandemic itself. As lockdown measures may continue to be necessary in the future, further efforts (both financial and mental health support) are required to minimize the consequences of COVID-19 containment policies for mental health.
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COVID-19 , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Inglaterra , Humanos , Saúde Mental , Pandemias , SARS-CoV-2RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Air pollution is speculated to increase the risks of COVID-19 spread, severity, and mortality. OBJECTIVES: We systematically reviewed studies investigating the relationship between air pollution and COVID-19 cases, non-fatal severity, and mortality in North America and Europe. METHODS: We searched PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus for studies investigating the effects of harmful pollutants, including particulate matter with diameter ≤2.5 or 10 µm (PM2.5 or PM10), ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2) and carbon monoxide (CO), on COVID-19 cases, severity, and deaths in Europe and North America through to June 19, 2021. Articles were included if they quantitatively measured the relationship between exposure to air pollution and COVID-19 health outcomes. RESULTS: From 2,482 articles screened, we included 116 studies reporting 355 separate pollutant-COVID-19 estimates. Approximately half of all evaluations on incidence were positive and significant associations (52.7%); for mortality the corresponding figure was similar (48.1%), while for non-fatal severity this figure was lower (41.2%). Longer-term exposure to pollutants appeared more likely to be positively associated with COVID-19 incidence (63.8%). PM2.5, PM10, O3, NO2, and CO were most strongly positively associated with COVID-19 incidence, while PM2.5 and NO2 with COVID-19 deaths. All studies were observational and most exhibited high risk of confounding and outcome measurement bias. DISCUSSION: Air pollution may be associated with worse COVID-19 outcomes. Future research is needed to better test the air pollution-COVID-19 hypothesis, particularly using more robust study designs and COVID-19 measures that are less prone to measurement error and by considering co-pollutant interactions.
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Poluentes Atmosféricos , Poluição do Ar , COVID-19 , Ozônio , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Poluentes Atmosféricos/toxicidade , Poluição do Ar/efeitos adversos , Poluição do Ar/análise , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Monóxido de Carbono/toxicidade , Exposição Ambiental/análise , Humanos , Incidência , Dióxido de Nitrogênio/análise , Ozônio/análise , Ozônio/toxicidade , Material Particulado/análise , Material Particulado/toxicidade , Dióxido de Enxofre/análiseRESUMO
BACKGROUND: There are growing concerns that the public's trust in science is eroding, including concerns that vested interests are corrupting what we know about our food. We know the food industry funds third-party 'front groups' to advance its positions and profits. Here we ask whether this is the case with International Food Information Council (IFIC) and its associated Foundation, exploring its motivations and the potential for industry influence on communications around nutritional science. METHOD: We systematically searched the University of California San Francisco's Food Industry Documents Archive, for all documents pertaining to IFIC, which were then thematically evaluated against a science-communication influence model. RESULTS: We identified 75 documents which evidence that prominent individuals with long careers in the food industry view IFIC as designed to: 1) advance industry public relations goals; 2) amplify the messages of industry-funded research organizations; and 3) place industry approved experts before the press and media, in ways that conceal industry input. We observed that there were in some cases efforts made to conceal and dilute industry links associated with IFIC from the public's view. DISCUSSION: Instances suggesting IFIC communicates content produced by industry, and other industry-funded organisations like ILSI, give rise to concerns about vested interests going undetected in its outputs. IFIC's deployment to take on so-called "hard-hitting issues" for industry, summating evidence, while countering evidence that industry opposes, give rise to concerns about IFIC's purported neutrality. IFIC's role in coordinating and placing industry allies in online and traditional press outlets, to overcome industry's global scientific, legislative, regulatory and public relations challenges, leads also to concerns about it thwarting effective public health and safety measures. CONCLUSIONS: IFIC's promotion of evidence for the food industry should be interpreted as marketing strategy for those funders. Effective science communication may be obfuscated by undeclared conflicts of interests.
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Indústria Alimentícia , Indústria do Tabaco , Comunicação , Indústria de Processamento de Alimentos , Humanos , Indústrias , OrganizaçõesRESUMO
BACKGROUND: The vast investments that have been made in recent decades in new medicines, vaccines, and technologies will only lead to improvements in health if there are appropriate and well-functioning health systems to make use of them. However, despite the growing acceptance by major global donors of the importance of health systems, there is an enthusiasm gap when it comes to disbursing funds needed to understand the intricacies of how, why and when these systems deliver effective interventions. To understand the reasons behind this, we open up the black box of donor decision-making vis-à-vis Health Policy and Systems Research (HPSR) financing: what are the organizational processes behind the support for HPSR, and what are the barriers to increasing engagement? METHODS: We conducted 27 semi-structured interviews with staff of major global health funders, asking them about four key issues: motivations for HPSR financing; priorities in HPSR financing; barriers for increasing HPSR allocations; and challenges or opportunities for the future. We transcribed the interviews and manually coded responses. RESULTS: Our findings point to the growing appreciation that funders have of HPSR, even though it is often still seen as an 'afterthought' to larger programmatic interventions. In identifying barriers to funding HPSR, our informants emphasised the perceived lack of mandate and capacities of their organizations. For most funding organisations, a major barrier was that their leadership often voiced scepticism about HPSR's long time horizons and limited ability to quantify results. CONCLUSION: Meeting contemporary health challenges requires strong and effective health systems. By allocating more resources to HPSR, global donors can improve the quality of their interventions, and also contribute to building up a stock of knowledge that domestic policymakers and other funders can draw on to develop better targeted programmes and policies.
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Administração Financeira , Política de Saúde , Humanos , Pesquisa sobre Serviços de Saúde , Programas Governamentais , Investimentos em SaúdeRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Global pandemics have occurred with increasing frequency over the past decade reflecting the sub-optimum operationalization of surveillance systems handling human health data. Despite the wide array of current surveillance methods, their effectiveness varies with multiple factors. Here, we perform a systematic review of the effectiveness of alternative infectious diseases Early Warning Systems (EWSs) with a focus on the surveillance data collection methods, and taking into consideration feasibility in different settings. METHODS: We searched PubMed and Scopus databases on 21 October 2022. Articles were included if they covered the implementation of an early warning system and evaluated infectious diseases outbreaks that had potential to become pandemics. Of 1669 studies screened, 68 were included in the final sample. We performed quality assessment using an adapted CASP Checklist. RESULTS: Of the 68 articles included, 42 articles found EWSs successfully functioned independently as surveillance systems for pandemic-wide infectious diseases outbreaks, and 16 studies reported EWSs to have contributing surveillance features through complementary roles. Chief complaints from emergency departments' data is an effective EWS but it requires standardized formats across hospitals. Centralized Public Health records-based EWSs facilitate information sharing; however, they rely on clinicians' reporting of cases. Facilitated reporting by remote health settings and rapid alarm transmission are key advantages of Web-based EWSs. Pharmaceutical sales and laboratory results did not prove solo effectiveness. The EWS design combining surveillance data from both health records and staff was very successful. Also, daily surveillance data notification was the most successful and accepted enhancement strategy especially during mass gathering events. Eventually, in Low Middle Income Countries, working to improve and enhance existing systems was more critical than implementing new Syndromic Surveillance approaches. CONCLUSIONS: Our study was able to evaluate the effectiveness of Early Warning Systems in different contexts and resource settings based on the EWSs' method of data collection. There is consistent evidence that EWSs compiling pre-diagnosis data are more proactive to detect outbreaks. However, the fact that Syndromic Surveillance Systems (SSS) are more proactive than diagnostic disease surveillance should not be taken as an effective clue for outbreaks detection.
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Surtos de Doenças , Vigilância de Evento Sentinela , Humanos , Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Disseminação de Informação , Lista de ChecagemRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Multiple studies report reductions in air pollution associated with COVID-19 lockdowns. METHODS: We performed a systematic review of the changes observed in hazardous air pollutants known or suspected to be harmful to health, including nitrogen dioxide (NO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), sulfur dioxide (SO2), ozone (O3) and particulate matter (PM). We searched PubMed and Web of Science for studies reporting the associations of lockdowns with air pollutant changes during the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe and North America. RESULTS: One hundred nine studies were identified and analyzed. Several pollutants exhibited marked and sustained reductions. The strongest was NO2 (93% of 89 estimated changes were reductions) followed by CO (88% of 33 estimated pollutant changes). All NOx and benzene studies reported significant reductions although these were based on fewer than 10 estimates. About three-quarters of PM2.5 and PM10 estimates showed reductions and few studies reported increases when domestic fuel use rose during COVID-19 lockdowns. In contrast, O3 levels rose as NOx levels fell. SO2 and ammonia (NH3) had mixed results. In general, greater reductions appeared when lockdowns were more severe, as well as where baseline pollutant levels were higher, such as at low-elevation and in densely populated areas. Substantial and robust reductions in NO2, NO, CO, CO2, PM2.5, PM10, benzene and air quality index pollution occurred in association with COVID-19 lockdowns. O3 levels tended to increase, while SO2 and NH3 had mixed patterns. CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows the profound impact of human activity levels on air pollution and its potential avoidability.
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Poluentes Atmosféricos , Poluição do Ar , COVID-19 , Ozônio , Humanos , Dióxido de Nitrogênio/análise , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Benzeno , Pandemias/prevenção & controle , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Material Particulado/análise , Dióxido de Enxofre/análise , Ozônio/análiseRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Evidence showed that mental health problems have risen markedly during COVID-19. It is unclear if part of the mental sufferings relates to the climate of uncertainty and confusion originated from rough communication by health officials and politicians. Here, we test the impact of unanticipated policy announcements of lockdown policies on mental health of the older population. METHODS: We used a representative telephone-based survey of 4400 people aged 65 years or older in Italy's Lombardy region to compare information on self-reported symptoms of anxiety, depression and poor-quality sleep of subjects interviewed on the days of the policy announcement with that of subjects interviewed on other days. We used regression models adjusting for potential socio-demographic confounders as well study design with inverse probability weighting. RESULTS: On days when policymakers announced to extend the lockdown, mental health deteriorated on average by 5.5 percentage points [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.1-9.8] for self-reported anxiety symptoms and 5.1 percentage points (95% CI: 2.7-7.4) for self-reported depressive symptoms. The effect of the announcement to shorten the lockdown is more moderate but statistically significant. These associations were short term in duration; after just 1 day, self-reported mental health and sleep quality return to levels better than pre-announcement until a new policy change. CONCLUSIONS: Our research shows that lockdown policy announcements are associated with short-term worsening in mental distress, highlighting the importance of appropriate communication strategies and political determinations in crisis times.
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COVID-19 , Distúrbios do Início e da Manutenção do Sono , Ansiedade/epidemiologia , Transtornos de Ansiedade/epidemiologia , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Depressão/epidemiologia , Humanos , Itália/epidemiologia , Saúde MentalRESUMO
PURPOSE: Multiple studies have reported a positive association between missing teeth and cognitive impairment. While some authors have postulated causal mechanisms, existing designs preclude assessing this. METHODS: We sought evidence of a causal effect of missing teeth on early-onset cognitive impairment in a natural experiment, using differential exposure to fluoridated water during critical childhood years (ages 5-20 years) in England as the instrument. We coded missing teeth from 0 (≤ 12 missing) to 3 (all missing) and measured the association with cognitive impairment in the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing data (2014-5), covering 4958 persons aged 50-70 years. RESULTS: We first replicated previous evidence of the strongly positive association of missing teeth with cognitive impairment (ß = 0.25 [0.11, 0.39]), after adjusting for socio-demographic covariates, such as age, gender, education, and wealth. Using an instrumental variable design, we found that childhood exposure to water fluoridation was strongly associated with fewer missing teeth, with being exposed to fluoridated water during childhood (16 years) associated with a 0.96 reduction in the missing teeth scale (ß = - 0.06 [- 0.10, - 0.02]). However, when using the instrumented measure of missing teeth, predicted by probability of fluoride exposure, we found that missing teeth no longer had an association with cognitive impairment (ß = 1.48 [- 1.22, 4.17]), suggesting that previous oral health-cognitive impairment associations had unobserved confounding. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings are consistent with the possibility that unobserved confounding leads to the oft-observed association between missing teeth and early-onset cognitive impairment, suggesting that the relationship is spurious rather than causal.
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Little is known on potential socioeconomic and gender disparities in dietary changes during the COVID-19 pandemic. We conducted a telephone-based survey during fall 2020 on 4400 participants representative of the population aged 65-99 years living in Lombardy, Italy. Changes in a Mediterranean lifestyle were assessed retrospectively by scoring modifications in the consumption of nine food groups and five diet-related behaviours compared to 2019. A Mediterranean COVID-19 Pandemic Score (MedCovid-19 Score) was computed, reflecting changes during pandemic, with increasing values indicating improvements in line with a Mediterranean lifestyle. Predictors of favourable dietary changes (MedCovid-19 Score ≥ 1) were education (odds ratio [OR] = 1.52; 95% confidence interval 1.19-1.95 for postgraduate vs. lower), wealth (OR = 1.52; 1.14-2.02 for high vs. low) and skilled manual occupations (OR = 1.57; 1.28-1.92 vs. white collars). Women were more likely than men to move away from a Mediterranean lifestyle (OR = 1.86; 1.58-2.21). In conclusions, changes towards a Mediterranean lifestyle were disproportionately distributed across gender and socioeconomic strata.
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COVID-19 , Dieta Mediterrânea , Idoso , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Escolaridade , Feminino , Humanos , Itália/epidemiologia , Estilo de Vida , Masculino , Pandemias , Estudos Retrospectivos , Fatores SocioeconômicosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Retirement is a life-course transition likely to affect, through different mechanisms, behavioural risk factors' patterns and, ultimately, health outcomes. We assessed the impact of transitioning to retirement on lifestyle habits and perceived health status in a nationwide cohort of Italian adults. METHODS: We analysed data from a large cohort of Italian adults aged 55-70, derived from linking six waves of the Participation, Labour, Unemployment Survey (PLUS), a national survey representative of the Italian workforce population, conducted between 2010 and 2018. We estimated relative-risk ratios (RRR) of transition to retirement and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for selected behavioural risk factors and health outcomes using multivariable logistic regression models. We used propensity score matching (PSM) to account for potential confounders. RESULTS: We included 5169 subjects in the study population, of which 1653 retired between 2010 and 2018 (exposed, 32%). Transition to retirement was associated with a 36% increased probability of practising sports (RRR 1.36, 95% CI 1.12-1.64). No statistically significant changes were reported for smoking habit (current smoker RRR: 1.18, 95% CI 0.94-1.46) and BMI (overweight/obese RRR: 0.96, 95% CI 0.81-1.15). Overall, retiring was associated with improved self-rated health status (RRR 1.26, 95% CI 1.02-1.58). CONCLUSION: Individual data-linkage of multiple waves of the PLUS can offer great insight to inform healthy ageing policies in Italy and Europe. Transition to retirement has an independent effect on perceived health status, physical activity and selected behavioural risk factors. It should be identified as a target moment for preventive interventions, with particular reference to primary prevention so as to promote health and wellbeing in older ages.