Acute health care use among children during the first 2.5 years of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ontario, Canada: a population-based repeated cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: The effects of the decline in health care use at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic on the health of children are unclear. We sought to estimate changes in rates of severe and potentially preventable health outcomes among children during the pandemic. METHODS: We conducted a repeated cross-sectional study of children aged 0-17 years using linked population health administrative and disease registry data from January 2017 through August 2022 in Ontario, Canada. We compared observed rates of emergency department visits and hospital admissions during the pandemic to predicted rates based on the 3 years preceding the pandemic. We evaluated outcomes among children and neonates overall, among children with chronic health conditions and among children with specific diseases sensitive to delays in care. RESULTS: All acute care use for children decreased immediately at the onset of the pandemic, reaching its lowest rate in April 2020 for emergency department visits (adjusted relative rate [RR] 0.28, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.28-0.29) and hospital admissions (adjusted RR 0.43, 95% CI 0.42-0.44). These decreases were sustained until September 2021 and May 2022, respectively. During the pandemic overall, rates of all-cause mortality, admissions for ambulatory care-sensitive conditions, newborn readmissions or emergency department visits or hospital admissions among children with chronic health conditions did not exceed predicted rates. However, after declining significantly between March and May 2020, new presentations of diabetes mellitus increased significantly during most of 2021 (peak adjusted RR 1.49, 95% CI 1.28-1.74 in July 2021) and much of 2022. Among these children, presentations for diabetic ketoacidosis were significantly higher than expected during the pandemic overall (adjusted RR 1.14, 95% CI 1.00-1.30). We observed similar time trends for new presentations of cancer, but we observed no excess presentations of severe cancer overall (adjusted RR 0.91, 95% CI 0.62-1.34). INTERPRETATION: In the first 30 months of the pandemic, disruptions to care were associated with important delays in new diagnoses of diabetes but not with other acute presentations of select preventable conditions or with mortality. Mitigation strategies in future pandemics or other health system disruptions should include education campaigns around important symptoms in children that require medical attention.

Clinical evaluation of a machine learning-based early warning system for patient deterioration.

BACKGROUND: The implementation and clinical impact of machine learning-based early warning systems for patient deterioration in hospitals have not been well described. We sought to describe the implementation and evaluation of a multifaceted, real-time, machine learning-based early warning system for patient deterioration used in the general internal medicine (GIM) unit of an academic medical centre. METHODS: In this nonrandomized, controlled study, we evaluated the association between the implementation of a machine learning-based early warning system and clinical outcomes. We used propensity score-based overlap weighting to compare patients in the GIM unit during the intervention period (Nov. 1, 2020, to June 1, 2022) to those admitted during the pre-intervention period (Nov. 1, 2016, to June 1, 2020). In a difference-indifferences analysis, we compared patients in the GIM unit with those in the cardiology, respirology, and nephrology units who did not receive the intervention. We retrospectively calculated system predictions for each patient in the control cohorts, although alerts were sent to clinicians only during the intervention period for patients in GIM. The primary outcome was non-palliative in-hospital death. RESULTS: The study included 13 649 patient admissions in GIM and 8470 patient admissions in subspecialty units. Non-palliative deaths were significantly lower in the intervention period than the pre-intervention period among patients in GIM (1.6% v. 2.1%; adjusted relative risk [RR] 0.74, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.55-1.00) but not in the subspecialty cohorts (1.9% v. 2.1%; adjusted RR 0.89, 95% CI 0.63-1.28). Among high-risk patients in GIM for whom the system triggered at least 1 alert, the proportion of non-palliative deaths was 7.1% in the intervention period, compared with 10.3% in the pre-intervention period (adjusted RR 0.69, 95% CI 0.46-1.02), with no meaningful difference in subspecialty cohorts (10.4% v. 10.6%; adjusted RR 0.98, 95% CI 0.60-1.59). In the difference-indifferences analysis, the adjusted relative risk reduction for non-palliative death in GIM was 0.79 (95% CI 0.50-1.24). INTERPRETATION: Implementing a machine learning-based early warning system in the GIM unit was associated with lower risk of non-palliative death than in the pre-intervention period. Machine learning-based early warning systems are promising technologies for improving clinical outcomes.

Public funding for private for-profit centres and access to cataract surgery by patient socioeconomic status: an Ontario population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Public funding of cataract surgery provided in private, for-profit surgical centres increased to help mitigate surgical backlogs during the COVID-19 pandemic in Ontario, Canada. We sought to compare the socioeconomic status of patients who underwent cataract surgery in not-for-profit public hospitals with those who underwent this surgery in private for-profit surgical centres and to evaluate whether differences in access by socioeconomic status decreased after the infusion of public funding for private, for-profit centres. METHODS: We conducted a population-based study of all cataract operations in Ontario, Canada, between January 2017 and March 2022. We analyzed differences in socioeconomic status among patients who accessed surgery at not-for-profit public hospitals versus those who accessed it at private for-profit surgical centres before and during the period of expanded public funding for private for-profit centres. RESULTS: Overall, 935 729 cataract surgeries occurred during the study period. Within private for-profit surgical centres, the rate of cataract surgeries rose 22.0% during the funding change period for patients in the highest socioeconomic status quintile, whereas, for patients in the lowest socioeconomic status quintile, the rate fell 8.5%. In contrast, within public hospitals, the rate of surgery decreased similarly among patients of all quintiles of socioeconomic status. During the funding change period, 92 809 fewer cataract operations were performed than expected. This trend was associated with socioeconomic status, particularly within private for-profit surgical centres, where patients with the highest socioeconomic status were the only group to have an increase in cataract operations. INTERPRETATION: After increased public funding for private, for-profit surgical centres, patient socioeconomic status was associated with access to cataract surgery in these centres, but not in public hospitals. Addressing the factors underlying this incongruity is vital to ensure access to surgery and maintain public confidence in the cataract surgery system.

Hospital volume-outcome relationships for robot-assisted surgeries: a population-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: Associations between procedure volumes and outcomes can inform minimum volume standards and the regionalization of health services. Robot-assisted surgery continues to expand globally; however, data are limited regarding which hospitals should be using the technology. STUDY DESIGN: Using administrative health data for all residents of Ontario, Canada, this retrospective cohort study included adult patients who underwent a robot-assisted radical prostatectomy (RARP), total robotic hysterectomy (TRH), robot-assisted partial nephrectomy (RAPN), or robotic portal lobectomy using 4 arms (RPL-4) between January 2010 and September 2021. Associations between yearly hospital volumes and 90-day major complications were evaluated using multivariable logistic regression models adjusted for patient characteristics and clustering at the level of the hospital. RESULTS: A total of 10,879 patients were included, with 7567, 1776, 724, and 812 undergoing a RARP, TRH, RAPN, and RPL-4, respectively. Yearly hospital volume was not associated with 90-day complications for any procedure. Doubling of yearly volume was associated with a 17-min decrease in operative time for RARP (95% confidence interval [CI] - 23 to - 10), 8-min decrease for RAPN (95% CI - 14 to - 2), 24-min decrease for RPL-4 (95% CI - 29 to - 19), and no significant change for TRH (- 7 min; 95% CI - 17 to 3). CONCLUSION: The risk of 90-day major complications does not appear to be higher in low volume hospitals; however, they may not be as efficient with operating room utilization. Careful case selection may have contributed to the lack of an observed association between volumes and complications.

Hospital learning curves for robot-assisted surgeries: a population-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: Robot-assisted surgery has been rapidly adopted. It is important to define the learning curve to inform credentialling requirements, training programs, identify fast and slow learners, and protect patients. This study aimed to characterize the hospital learning curve for common robot-assisted procedures. STUDY DESIGN: This cohort study, using administrative health data for Ontario, Canada, included adult patients who underwent a robot-assisted radical prostatectomy (RARP), total robotic hysterectomy (TRH), robot-assisted partial nephrectomy (RAPN), or robotic portal lobectomy using four arms (RPL-4) between 2010 and 2021. The association between cumulative hospital volume of a robot-assisted procedure and major complications was evaluated using multivariable logistic models adjusted for patient characteristics and clustering at the hospital level. RESULTS: A total of 6814 patients were included, with 5230, 543, 465, and 576 patients in the RARP, TRH, RAPN, and RPL-4 cohorts, respectively. There was no association between cumulative hospital volume and major complications. Visual inspection of learning curves demonstrated a transient worsening of outcomes followed by subsequent improvements with experience. Operative time decreased for all procedures with increasing volume and reached plateaus after approximately 300 RARPs, 75 TRHs, and 150 RPL-4s. The odds of a prolonged length of stay decreased with increasing volume for patients undergoing a RARP (OR 0.87; 95% CI 0.82-0.92) or RPL-4 (OR 0.77; 95% CI 0.68-0.87). CONCLUSION: Hospitals may adopt robot-assisted surgery without significantly increasing the risk of major complications for patients early in the learning curve and with an expectation of increasing efficiency.

Virtual Versus In-Person Follow-up After a Psychiatric Emergency Visit: A Population-Based Cohort Study: Suivi virtuel opposé à en personne après une visite à l'urgence psychiatrique : une étude de cohorte dans la population.

OBJECTIVE: With increased utilization of virtual care in mental health, examining its appropriateness in various clinical scenarios is warranted. This study aimed to compare the risk of adverse psychiatric outcomes following virtual versus in-person mental health follow-up care after a psychiatric emergency department (ED) visit. METHODS: Using population-based health administrative data in Ontario (2021), we identified 28,232 adults discharged from a psychiatric ED visit who had a follow-up mental health visit within 14 days postdischarge. We compared those whose first follow-up visit was virtual (telephone or video) versus in-person on their risk for experiencing either a repeat psychiatric ED visit, psychiatric hospitalization, intentional self-injury, or suicide in the 15-90 days post-ED visit. Cox proportional hazard models generated adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), adjusted for age, income quintile, psychiatric hospitalization, and intentional self-injury in the 2 years prior to ED visit. We stratified by sex and diagnosis at index ED visits based on the International Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 10th Revision, Canada (ICD-10-CA) coding. RESULTS: About 65% (n = 18,354) of first follow-up visits were virtual, while 35% (n = 9,878) were in-person. About 13.9% and 14.6% of the virtual and in-person groups, respectively, experienced the composite outcome, corresponding to incidence rates of 60.9 versus 74.2 per 1000 person-years (aHR 0.95, 95% CI 0.89 to 1.01). Results were similar for individual elements of the composite outcome, when stratifying by sex and index psychiatric diagnosis, when varying exposure (7 days) and outcome periods (60 and 30 days), and comparing "only" virtual versus "any" in-person follow-up during the 14-day follow-up. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: These results support virtual care as a modality to increase access to follow-up after an acute care psychiatric encounter across a wide range of diagnoses. Prospective trials to discern whether this is due to the comparable efficacy of virtual and in-person care, or due solely to appropriate patient selection may be warranted.

Characterizing the Impact of Procedure Funding on the Covid-19 Generated Procedure Gap in Ontario: A Population-Based Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Surgical procedures in Canada were historically funded through global hospital budgets. Activity-based funding models were developed to improve access, equity, timeliness, and value of care for priority areas. COVID-19 upended health priorities and resulted in unprecedented disruptions to surgical care, which created a significant procedure gap. We hypothesized that activity-based funding models influenced the magnitude and trajectory of this procedure gap. METHODS: Population-based analysis of procedure rates comparing the pandemic (March 1, 2020-December 31, 2021) to a prepandemic baseline (January 1, 2017-February 29, 2020) in Ontario, Canada. Poisson generalized estimating equation models were used to predict expected rates in the pandemic based on the prepandemic baseline. Analyses were stratified by procedure type (outpatient, inpatient), body region, and funding category (activity-based funding programs vs. global budget). RESULTS: In all, 281,328 fewer scheduled procedures were performed during the COVID-19 period compared with the prepandemic baseline (Rate Ratio 0.78; 95% CI 0.77-0.80). Inpatient procedures saw a larger reduction (24.8%) in volume compared with outpatient procedures (20.5%). An increase in the proportion of procedures funded through activity-based programs was seen during the pandemic (52%) relative to the prepandemic baseline (50%). Body systems funded predominantly through global hospital budgets (eg, gynecology, otologic surgery) saw the least months at or above baseline volumes, whereas those with multiple activity-based funding options (eg, musculoskeletal, abdominal) saw the most months at or above baseline volumes. CONCLUSIONS: Those needing procedures funded through global hospital budgets may have been disproportionately disadvantaged by pandemic-related health care disruptions.

Ethnic differences in the association between age at diagnosis of diabetes and the risk of cardiovascular complications: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: We examined ethnic differences in the association between age at diagnosis of diabetes and the risk of cardiovascular complications. METHODS: We conducted a population-based cohort study in Ontario, Canada among individuals with diabetes and matched individuals without diabetes (2002-18). We fit Cox proportional hazards models to determine the associations of age at diagnosis and ethnicity (Chinese, South Asian, general population) with cardiovascular complications. We tested for an interaction between age at diagnosis and ethnicity. RESULTS: There were 453,433 individuals with diabetes (49.7% women) and 453,433 matches. There was a significant interaction between age at diagnosis and ethnicity (P < 0.0001). Young-onset diabetes (age at diagnosis < 40) was associated with higher cardiovascular risk [hazard ratios: Chinese 4.25 (3.05-5.91), South Asian: 3.82 (3.19-4.57), General: 3.46 (3.26-3.66)] than usual-onset diabetes [age at diagnosis ≥ 40 years; Chinese: 2.22 (2.04-2.66), South Asian: 2.43 (2.22-2.66), General: 1.83 (1.81-1.86)] versus ethnicity-matched individuals. Among those with young-onset diabetes, Chinese ethnicity was associated with lower overall cardiovascular [0.44 (0.32-0.61)] but similar stroke risks versus the general population; while South Asian ethnicity was associated with lower overall cardiovascular [0.75 (0.64-0.89)] but similar coronary artery disease risks versus the general population. In usual-onset diabetes, Chinese ethnicity was associated with lower cardiovascular risk [0.44 (0.42-0.46)], while South Asian ethnicity was associated with lower cardiovascular [0.90 (0.86-0.95)] and higher coronary artery disease [1.08 (1.01-1.15)] risks versus the general population. CONCLUSIONS: There are important ethnic differences in the association between age at diagnosis and risk of cardiovascular complications.

Regional variation in lower extremity revascularization and amputation for peripheral artery disease.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to quantify the recent and historical extent of regional variation in revascularization and amputation for peripheral artery disease (PAD). METHODS: This was a repeated cross-sectional analysis of all Ontarians aged 40 years or greater between 2002 and 2019. The co-primary outcomes were revascularization (endovascular or open) and major (above-ankle) amputation for PAD. For each of 14 health care administrative regions, rates per 100,000 person-years (PY) were calculated for 6-year time periods from the fiscal years 2002 to 2019. Rates were directly standardized for regional demographics (age, sex, income) and comorbidities (congestive heart failure, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic kidney disease). The extent of regional variation in revascularization and major amputation rates for each time period was quantified by the ratio of 90th over the 10th percentile (PRR). RESULTS: In 2014 to 2019, there were large differences across regions in demographics (rural living [range, 0%-39.4%], lowest neighborhood income quintile [range, 10.1%-25.5%]) and comorbidities (diabetes [range, 14.2%-22.0%], chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [range, 7.8%-17.9%]), and chronic kidney disease [range, 2.1%-4.0%]. Standardized revascularization rates ranged across regions from 52.6 to 132.6/100,000 PY and standardized major amputation rates ranged from 10.0 to 37.7/100,000 PY. The extent of regional variation was large (PRR ≥2.0) for both revascularization and major amputation. From 2002-2004 to 2017-2019, the extent of regional variation increased from moderate to large for revascularization (standardized PRR, 1.87 to 2.04) and major amputation (standardized PRR, 1.94 to 3.07). CONCLUSIONS: Significant regional differences in revascularization and major amputation rates related to PAD remain after standardizing for regional differences in demographics and comorbidities. These differences have not improved over time.

The influence of diabetes on temporal trends in lower extremity revascularisation and amputation for peripheral artery disease: A population-based repeated cross-sectional analysis.

AIM/HYPOTHESIS: To describe the influence of diabetes on temporal changes in rates of lower extremity revascularisation and amputation for peripheral artery disease (PAD) in Ontario, Canada. METHODS: In this population-based repeated cross-sectional study, we calculated annual rates of lower extremity revascularisation (open or endovascular) and amputation (toe, foot or leg) related to PAD among Ontario residents aged ≥40 years between 2002 and 2019. Annual rate ratios (relative to 2002) adjusted for changes in diabetes prevalence alone, as well as fully adjusted for changes in demographics, diabetes and other comorbidities, were estimated using generalized estimating equation models to model population-level effects while accounting for correlation within units of observation. RESULTS: Compared with 2002, the Ontario population in 2019 exhibited a significantly higher prevalence of diabetes (18% vs. 10%). Between 2002 and 2019, the crude rate of revascularisation increased from 75.1 to 90.7/100,000 person-years (unadjusted RR = 1.10, 95% CI = 1.07-1.13). However, after adjustment, there was no longer an increase in the rate of revascularisation (diabetes-adjusted RR = 0.98, 95% CI = 0.96-1.01, fully-adjusted RR = 0.94, 95% CI = 0.91-0.96). The crude rate of amputation decreased from 2002 to 2019 from 49.5 to 45.4/100,000 person-years (unadjusted RR = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.75-0.81), but was more pronounced after adjustment (diabetes-adjusted RR = 0.62, 95% CI = 0.60-0.64; fully-adjusted RR = 0.58, 95% CI = 0.56-0.60). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Diabetes prevalence rates strongly influenced rates of revascularisation and amputation related to PAD. A decrease in amputations related to PAD over time was attenuated by rising diabetes prevalence rates.

Acute presentations of eating disorders among adolescents and adults before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in Ontario, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Increased rates of pediatric eating disorders have been observed during the COVID-19 pandemic, but little is known about trends among adults. We aimed to evaluate rates of emergency department visits and hospital admissions for eating disorders among adolescents and adults during the pandemic. METHODS: We conducted a population-based, repeated cross-sectional study using linked health administrative data for Ontario residents aged 10-105 years during the prepandemic (Jan. 1, 2017, to Feb. 29, 2020) and pandemic (Mar. 1, 2020, to Aug. 31, 2022) periods. We evaluated monthly rates of emergency department visits and hospital admissions for eating disorders, stratified by age. RESULTS: Compared with expected rates derived from the prepandemic period, emergency department visits for eating disorders increased during the pandemic among adolescents aged 10-17 years (7.38 v. 3.33 per 100 000; incidence rate ratio [IRR] 2.21, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.17-2.26), young adults aged 18-26 years (2.79 v. 2.46 per 100 000; IRR 1.13, 95% CI 1.10-1.16) and older adults aged 41-105 years (0.14 v. 0.11 per 100 000; IRR 1.15, 95% CI 1.07-1.24). Hospital admissions for eating disorders increased during the pandemic for adolescents (8.82 v. 5.74 per 100 000; IRR 1.54, 95% CI 1.54-1.54) but decreased for all adult age groups, especially older adults aged 41-105 years (0.21 v. 0.30 per 100 000; IRR 0.72, 95% CI 0.64-0.80). INTERPRETATION: Emergency department visits for eating disorders increased among adolescents, young adults and older adults during the pandemic, but hospital admissions increased only for adolescents and decreased for all adult groups. Differential rates of acute care use for eating disorders by age have important implications for allocation of inpatient mental health resources.

Self-harm among youth during the first 28 months of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ontario, Canada: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Youth have reported worsening mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic. We sought to evaluate rates of pediatric acute care visits for self-harm during the pandemic according to age, sex and mental health service use. METHODS: We conducted a population-based, repeated cross-sectional study using linked health administrative data sets to measure monthly rates of emergency department visits and hospital admissions for self-harm among youth aged 10-17 years between Jan. 1, 2017, and June 30, 2022, in Ontario, Canada. We modelled expected rates of acute care visits for self-harm after the pandemic onset based on prepandemic rates. We reported relative differences between observed and expected monthly rates overall and by age group (10-13 yr and 14-17 yr), sex and mental health service use (new and continuing). RESULTS: In this population of about 1.3 million children and adolescents, rates of acute care visits for self-harm during the pandemic were higher than expected for emergency department visits (0.27/1000 population v. 0.21/1000 population; adjusted rate ratio [RR] 1.29, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.19-1.39) and hospital admissions (0.74/10 000 population v. 0.43/10 000 population, adjusted RR 1.72, 95% CI 1.46-2.03). This increase was primarily observed among females. Rates of emergency department visits and hospital admissions for self-harm were higher than expected for both those aged 10-13 years and those aged 14-17 years, as well as for both those new to the mental health system and those already engaged in care. INTERPRETATION: Rates of acute care visits for self-harm among children and adolescents were higher than expected during the first 2 and a half years of the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly among females. These findings support the need for accessible and intensive prevention efforts and mental health supports in this population.

The evolving use of robotic surgery: a population-based analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Robotic surgery has integrated into the healthcare system despite limited evidence demonstrating its clinical benefit. Our objectives were (i) to describe secular trends and (ii) patient- and system-level determinants of the receipt of robotic as compared to open or laparoscopic surgery. METHODS: This population-based retrospective cohort study included adult patients who, between 2009 and 2018 in Ontario, Canada, underwent one of four commonly performed robotic procedures: radical prostatectomy, total hysterectomy, thoracic lobectomy, partial nephrectomy. Patients were categorized based on the surgical approach as robotic, open, or laparoscopic for each procedure. Multivariable regression models were used to estimate the temporal trend in robotic surgery use and associations of patient and system characteristics with the surgical approach. RESULTS: The cohort included 24,741 radical prostatectomy, 75,473 total hysterectomy, 18,252 thoracic lobectomy, and 4608 partial nephrectomy patients, of which 6.21% were robotic. After adjusting for patient and system characteristics, the rate of robotic surgery increased by 24% annually (RR 1.24, 95%CI 1.13-1.35): 13% (RR 1.13, 95%CI 1.11-1.16) for robotic radical prostatectomy, 9% (RR 1.09, 95%CI 1.05-1.13) for robotic total hysterectomy, 26% (RR 1.26, 95%CI 1.06-1.50) for thoracic lobectomy and 26% (RR 1.26, 95%CI 1.13-1.40) for partial nephrectomy. Lower comorbidity burden, earlier disease stage (among cancer cases), and early career surgeons with high case volume at a teaching hospital were consistently associated with the receipt of robotic surgery. CONCLUSION: The use of robotic surgery has increased. The study of the real-world clinical outcomes and associated costs is needed before further expanding use among additional providers and hospitals.

Pandemic Effect on Healthcare Use and Death in Adults with Epilepsy: A Population Study.

OBJECTIVES: We conducted a population-based study using Ontario health administrative data to describe trends in healthcare utilization and mortality in adults with epilepsy during the first pandemic year (March 2020-March 2021) compared to historical data (2016-2019). We also investigated if changes in outpatient visits and diagnostic testing during the first pandemic year were associated with increased risk for hospitalizations, emergency department (ED) visits, or death. METHODS: Projected monthly visit rates (per 100,000 people) for outpatient visits, electroencephalography, magnetic resonance, computed tomography, all-cause ED visits, hospitalizations, and mortality were calculated based on historical data by fitting monthly time series autoregressive integrated moving-average models. Two-way interactions were calculated using Quasi-Poisson models. RESULTS: In adults with epilepsy during the first quarter of the pandemic, we demonstrated a reduction in all-cause outpatient visits, diagnostic testing, ED visits and hospitalizations, and a temporary increase in mortality (observed rates of 355.8 vs projected 308.8, 95% CI: 276.3-345.1). By the end of the year, outpatient visits increased (85,535.4 vs 76,620.6, 95% CI: 71,546.9-82,059.4), and most of the diagnostic test rates returned to the projected. The increase in the rate of all-cause mortality during the pandemic, compared to pre-pandemic, was greater during months with the lower frequency of diagnostic tests than months with higher frequency (interaction p-values <.0001). CONCLUSION: We described the impact of the pandemic on healthcare utilization and mortality in adults with epilepsy during the first year. We demonstrated that access to relevant diagnostic testing is likely important for this population while planning restrictions on non-urgent health services.

Sociodemographic Differences in Physician-Based Mental Health and Virtual Care Utilization and Uptake of Virtual Care Among Children and Adolescents During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Ontario, Canada: A Population-Based Study.

OBJECTIVE: We sought to evaluate the relationship between social determinants of health and physician-based mental healthcare utilization and virtual care use among children and adolescents in Ontario, Canada, during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: This population-based repeated cross-sectional study of children and adolescents (3-17 years; N = 2.5 million) used linked health and demographic administrative data in Ontario, Canada (2017-2021). Multivariable Poisson regressions with generalized estimating equations compared rates of outpatient physician-based mental healthcare use during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic with expected rates based on pre-COVID patterns. Analyses were conducted by socioeconomic status (material deprivation quintiles of the Ontario Marginalization index), urban/rural region of residence, and immigration status. RESULTS: Overall, pediatric physician-based mental healthcare visits were 5% lower than expected (rate ratio [RR] = 0.95, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.92 to 0.98) among those living in the most deprived areas in the first year of the pandemic, compared with the least deprived with 4% higher than expected rates (RR = 1.04, 95% CI, 1.02 to 1.06). There were no differences in overall observed and expected visit rates by region of residence. Immigrants had 14% to 26% higher visit rates compared with expected from July 2020 to February 2021, whereas refugees had similarly observed and expected rates. Virtual care use was approximately 65% among refugees, compared with 70% for all strata. CONCLUSION: During the first year of the pandemic, pediatric physician-based mental healthcare utilization was higher among immigrants and lower than expected among those with lower socioeconomic status. Refugees had the lowest use of virtual care. Further work is needed to understand whether these differences reflect issues in access to care or the need to help inform ongoing pandemic recovery planning.

Quality indices for topic model selection and evaluation: a literature review and case study.

BACKGROUND: Topic models are a class of unsupervised machine learning models, which facilitate summarization, browsing and retrieval from large unstructured document collections. This study reviews several methods for assessing the quality of unsupervised topic models estimated using non-negative matrix factorization. Techniques for topic model validation have been developed across disparate fields. We synthesize this literature, discuss the advantages and disadvantages of different techniques for topic model validation, and illustrate their usefulness for guiding model selection on a large clinical text corpus. DESIGN, SETTING AND DATA: Using a retrospective cohort design, we curated a text corpus containing 382,666 clinical notes collected between 01/01/2017 through 12/31/2020 from primary care electronic medical records in Toronto Canada. METHODS: Several topic model quality metrics have been proposed to assess different aspects of model fit. We explored the following metrics: reconstruction error, topic coherence, rank biased overlap, Kendall's weighted tau, partition coefficient, partition entropy and the Xie-Beni statistic. Depending on context, cross-validation and/or bootstrap stability analysis were used to estimate these metrics on our corpus. RESULTS: Cross-validated reconstruction error favored large topic models (K ≥ 100 topics) on our corpus. Stability analysis using topic coherence and the Xie-Beni statistic also favored large models (K = 100 topics). Rank biased overlap and Kendall's weighted tau favored small models (K = 5 topics). Few model evaluation metrics suggested mid-sized topic models (25 ≤ K ≤ 75) as being optimal. However, human judgement suggested that mid-sized topic models produced expressive low-dimensional summarizations of the corpus. CONCLUSIONS: Topic model quality indices are transparent quantitative tools for guiding model selection and evaluation. Our empirical illustration demonstrated that different topic model quality indices favor models of different complexity; and may not select models aligning with human judgment. This suggests that different metrics capture different aspects of model goodness of fit. A combination of topic model quality indices, coupled with human validation, may be useful in appraising unsupervised topic models.

Differences in Treatment Patterns and Outcomes of Acute Myocardial Infarction for Low- and High-Income Patients in 6 Countries.

Importance: Differences in the organization and financing of health systems may produce more or less equitable outcomes for advantaged vs disadvantaged populations. We compared treatments and outcomes of older high- and low-income patients across 6 countries. Objective: To determine whether treatment patterns and outcomes for patients presenting with acute myocardial infarction differ for low- vs high-income individuals across 6 countries. Design, Setting, and Participants: Serial cross-sectional cohort study of all adults aged 66 years or older hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction from 2013 through 2018 in the US, Canada, England, the Netherlands, Taiwan, and Israel using population-representative administrative data. Exposures: Being in the top and bottom quintile of income within and across countries. Main Outcomes and Measures: Thirty-day and 1-year mortality; secondary outcomes included rates of cardiac catheterization and revascularization, length of stay, and readmission rates. Results: We studied 289 376 patients hospitalized with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and 843 046 hospitalized with non-STEMI (NSTEMI). Adjusted 30-day mortality generally was 1 to 3 percentage points lower for high-income patients. For instance, 30-day mortality among patients admitted with STEMI in the Netherlands was 10.2% for those with high income vs 13.1% for those with low income (difference, -2.8 percentage points [95% CI, -4.1 to -1.5]). One-year mortality differences for STEMI were even larger than 30-day mortality, with the highest difference in Israel (16.2% vs 25.3%; difference, -9.1 percentage points [95% CI, -16.7 to -1.6]). In all countries, rates of cardiac catheterization and percutaneous coronary intervention were higher among high- vs low-income populations, with absolute differences ranging from 1 to 6 percentage points (eg, 73.6% vs 67.4%; difference, 6.1 percentage points [95% CI, 1.2 to 11.0] for percutaneous intervention in England for STEMI). Rates of coronary artery bypass graft surgery for patients with STEMI in low- vs high-income strata were similar but for NSTEMI were generally 1 to 2 percentage points higher among high-income patients (eg, 12.5% vs 11.0% in the US; difference, 1.5 percentage points [95% CI, 1.3 to 1.8 ]). Thirty-day readmission rates generally also were 1 to 3 percentage points lower and hospital length of stay generally was 0.2 to 0.5 days shorter for high-income patients. Conclusions and Relevance: High-income individuals had substantially better survival and were more likely to receive lifesaving revascularization and had shorter hospital lengths of stay and fewer readmissions across almost all countries. Our results suggest that income-based disparities were present even in countries with universal health insurance and robust social safety net systems.

Implementation of Critical Care Response Teams in Ontario: Impact on the Outcomes of Surgical Patients.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether introduction of CCRTs reduced mortality rates among patients who developed a postoperative complication, also referred to as FTR. BACKGROUND: CCRTs were introduced to improve patients' postoperative outcomes. Its effect on FTR continues to be actively investigated. METHODS: We conducted a population-based retrospective cohort study using administrative data from Ontario, Canada. We identified 810,279 patients admitted to hospital for major surgical procedures between January 2004 and December 2014, with a washout period consisting of the 9 months before and after the implementation of CCRTs in January 2007. Difference-in-differences analysis among patients who developed a postoperative complication (n = 148,882) was used to estimate the association between CCRT implementation and FTR before and after CCRT implementation in hospitals that did - versus did not - implement CCRT during the study period. RESULTS: A total of 810,279 patients were included, of whom 148,882 (18.4%) developed a postoperative surgical complication. Among patients who developed a postoperative complication, the overall proportion of FTR was 9.2% (n = 13,659). Among patients in hospitals that introduced CCRT, the RR of FTR was 0.84, [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.78-0.90] after implementation of CCRT, while over the same time period, the RR was 0.85 (95% CI 0.80-0.91) in hospitals that did not implement CCRT. The RR ratio (difference-indifferences) was 0.99 (95% CI 0.89-1.09). Among patients undergoing orthopedic surgery, the RR ratio was 0.84 (95% CI 0.75-0.95). CONCLUSION: Although implementation of CCRTs in hospitals in Ontario, Canada, did not reduce FTR among all surgical patients having surgery, CCRTs may reduce the risk of FTR among patients having orthopedic surgery.

A Population-based Analysis of the COVID-19 Generated Surgical Backlog and Associated Emergency Department Presentations for Inguinal Hernias and Gallstone Disease.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the downstream effects of the COVID-19 generated surgical backlog. BACKGROUND: Delayed elective surgeries may result in emergency department (ED) presentations and the need for urgent interventions. METHODS: Population-based repeated cross-sectional study utilizing administrative data. We quantified rates of elective cholecystectomy and inguinal hernia repair and rates of ED presentations, urgent interventions, and outcomes during the first and second waves of COVID-19 (March 1, 2020- February 28, 2021) as compared to a 3-year pre-COVID-19 period (January 1, 2017-February 29, 2020) in Ontario, Canada. Poisson generalized estimating equation models were used to predict expected rates during COVID-19 based on the pre-COVID-19 period. The ratio of observed (actual events) to expected rates was generated for surgical procedures (SRRs) and ED visits (ED-RRs). RESULTS: We identified 74,709 elective cholecystectomies and 60,038 elective inguinal hernia repairs. During the COVID-19 period, elective inguinal hernia repairs decreased by 21% (SRR 0.791; 0.760-0.824) whereas elective cholecystectomies decreased by 23% (SRR 0.773; 0.732-0.816). ED visits for inguinal hernia decreased by 17% (ED-RR 0.829; 0.786 - 0.874) whereas ED visits for gallstones decreased by 8% (ED-RR 0.922; 0.878 - 0.967). A higher population rate of urgent cholecystectomy was observed, particularly after the first wave (SRR 1.076; 1.000-1.158). No difference was seen in inguinal hernias. CONCLUSIONS: An over 20% reduction in elective surgeries and an increase in urgent cholecystectomies was observed during the COVID-19 period suggesting a rebound effect secondary to the surgical backlog. The COVID-19 generated surgical backlog will have a heterogeneous downstream effect with significant implications for surgical recovery planning.

Adverse events following robotic surgery: population-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: Robotic surgery was integrated into some healthcare systems despite there being few well designed, real-world studies on safety or benefit. This study compared the safety of robotic with laparoscopic, thoracoscopic, and open approaches in common robotic procedures. METHODS: This was a population-based, retrospective study of all adults who underwent prostatectomy, hysterectomy, pulmonary lobectomy, or partial nephrectomy in Ontario, Canada, between 2008 and 2018. The primary outcome was 90-day total adverse events using propensity score overlap weights, and secondary outcomes were minor or major morbidity/adverse events. RESULTS: Data on 24 741 prostatectomy, 75 473 hysterectomy, 18 252 pulmonary lobectomy, and 6608 partial nephrectomy operations were included. Relative risks for total adverse events in robotic compared with open surgery were 0.80 (95 per cent c.i. 0.74 to 0.87) for radical prostatectomy, 0.44 (0.37 to 0.52) for hysterectomy, 0.53 (0.44 to 0.65) for pulmonary lobectomy, and 0.72 (0.54 to 0.97) for partial nephrectomy. Relative risks for total adverse events in robotic surgery compared with a laparoscopic/thoracoscopic approach were 0.94 (0.77 to 1.15), 1.00 (0.82 to 1.23), 1.01 (0.84 to 1.21), and 1.23 (0.82 to 1.84) respectively. CONCLUSION: The robotic approach is associated with fewer adverse events than an open approach but similar to a laparoscopic/thoracoscopic approach. The benefit of the robotic approach is related to the minimally-invasive approach rather than the platform itself.