RESUMO
A recent attempt to downscale the 50 km MERRA-2 analyses to 7 km revealed an instability associated with the Incremental Analysis Update (IAU) procedure that has thus far gone unnoticed. A theoretical study based on a simple damped harmonic oscillator with complex frequency provides the framework to diagnose the problem and suggests means to avoid it. Three possible approaches to avoid the instability are to: (i) choose an "ideal" ratio of the lengths of the Predictor and Corrector steps of IAU based on a theoretical stability diagram; (ii) time average the background fields used to construct the IAU tendencies with given frequency; or (iii) apply a digital filter modulation to the IAU tendencies. All these are shown to control the instability for a wide range of resolutions when doing up- or down-scaling, experiments with the NASA/GMAO atmospheric general circulation model. Furthermore, it is found that combining IAU with the ensemble re-centering step typical of hybrid ensemble-variational approaches, also results in an instability based on the same mechanisms in the members of the ensemble. An example of such occurrence arises in an experiment performed with the GMAO 12.8 km hybrid 4D-EnVar system. Modulation of the ensemble IAU tendencies with a digital filter is shown to avoid the instability. In addition, the stability of certain 4DIAU implementations is analyzed and a suggestion is made to improve its results, though a complete study of this subject is postponed to a follow up work.
RESUMO
The present article describes the sea surface temperature (SST) developments implemented in the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (ADAS). These are enhancements that contribute to the development of an atmosphere-ocean coupled data assimilation system using GEOS. In the current quasi-operational GEOS-ADAS, the SST is a boundary condition prescribed based on the OSTIA product, therefore SST and skin SST (Ts) are identical. This work modifies the GEOS-ADAS Ts by modeling and assimilating near sea surface sensitive satellite infrared (IR) observations. The atmosphere-ocean interface layer of the GEOS atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) is updated to include near surface diurnal warming and cool-skin effects. The GEOS analysis system is also updated to directly assimilate SST-relevant Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) radiance observations. Data assimilation experiments designed to evaluate the Ts modification in GEOS-ADAS show improvements in the assimilation of radiance observations that extends beyond the thermal IR bands of AVHRR. In particular, many channels of hyperspectral sensors, such as those of the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), and Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) are also better assimilated. We also obtained improved fit to withheld, in-situ buoy measurement of near-surface SST. Evaluation of forecast skill scores show marginal to neutral benefit from the modified Ts.
RESUMO
The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) is the latest atmospheric reanalysis of the modern satellite era produced by NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). MERRA-2 assimilates observation types not available to its predecessor, MERRA, and includes updates to the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model and analysis scheme so as to provide a viable ongoing climate analysis beyond MERRA's terminus. While addressing known limitations of MERRA, MERRA-2 is also intended to be a development milestone for a future integrated Earth system analysis (IESA) currently under development at GMAO. This paper provides an overview of the MERRA-2 system and various performance metrics. Among the advances in MERRA-2 relevant to IESA are the assimilation of aerosol observations, several improvements to the representation of the stratosphere including ozone, and improved representations of cryospheric processes. Other improvements in the quality of MERRA-2 compared with MERRA include the reduction of some spurious trends and jumps related to changes in the observing system, and reduced biases and imbalances in aspects of the water cycle. Remaining deficiencies are also identified. Production of MERRA-2 began in June 2014 in four processing streams, and converged to a single near-real time stream in mid 2015. MERRA-2 products are accessible online through the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data Information Services Center (GES DISC).
RESUMO
This study describes the modifications made to the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (ADAS) to conserve atmospheric dry-air mass and to guarantee that the net source of water from precipitation and surface evaporation equals the change in total atmospheric water. The modifications involve changes to both the atmospheric model and the analysis procedure. In the model, sources and sinks of water are included in the continuity equation; in the analysis, constraints are imposed to penalize (and thus minimize) analysis increments of dry-air mass. Finally, changes are also required to the Incremental Analysis Update (IAU) procedure. The effects of these modifications are separately evaluated in free-running and assimilation experiments. Results are also presented from a multiyear reanalysis (Version 2 of the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications: MERRA-2) that uses the modified system.
RESUMO
This study examines the causes and predictability of the spring 2011 U.S. extreme weather using the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalyses and Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5) Atmospheric General Circulation Model simulations. The focus is on assessing the impact on precipitation of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, land conditions, and large-scale atmospheric modes of variability. A key result is that the April record-breaking precipitation in the Ohio River Valley was primarily the result of the unforced development of a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like mode of variability with unusually large amplitude, limiting the predictability of the precipitation in that region at one month leads. SST forcing (La Nina conditions) contributed to the broader continental scale pattern of precipitation anomalies, producing drying in the southern plains and weak wet anomalies in the northeast, while the impact of realistic initial North American land conditions was to enhance precipitation in the upper Midwest and produce deficits in the southeast. It was further found that: The March 1 atmospheric initial condition was the primary source of the ensemble mean precipitation response over the eastern U.S. in April (well beyond the limit of weather predictability) suggesting an influence on the initial state of the previous SST forcing and/or tropospheric/stratospheric coupling linked to an unusually persistent and cold polar vortex.Stationary wave model experiments suggest that the SST-forced base state for April enhanced the amplitude of the NAO response compared to that of the climatological state, though the impact is modest and can be of either sign.
RESUMO
Interannual variations in seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity (e.g., genesis frequency and location, track pattern, and landfall) over the Atlantic are explored by employing observationally-constrained simulations with the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version (GEOS-5) atmospheric general circulation model. The climate modes investigated are El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM). The results show that the NAO and AMM can strongly modify and even oppose the well-known ENSO impacts, like in 2005, when a strong positive AMM (associated with warm SSTs and a negative SLP anomaly over the western tropical Atlantic), led to a very active TC season with enhanced TC genesis over the Caribbean Sea and a number of landfalls over North America, under a neutral ENSO condition. On the other end, the weak TC activity during 2013 (characterized by weak negative Niño index) appears caused by a NAO-induced positive SLP anomaly with enhanced vertical wind shear over the tropical North Atlantic. During 2010, the combined impact of the three modes produced positive SST anomalies across the entire low- latitudinal Atlantic and a weaker subtropical high, leading to more early recurvers and thus fewer landfalls despite enhanced TC genesis. The study provides evidence that TC number and track are very sensitive to the relative phases and intensities of these three modes, and not just to ENSO alone. Examination of seasonal predictability reveals that predictive skill of the three modes is limited over tropics to sub-tropics, with the AMM having the highest predictability over the North Atlantic, followed by ENSO and NAO.
RESUMO
During the 1930s, the United States experienced one of the most devastating droughts of the past century. The drought affected almost two-thirds of the country and parts of Mexico and Canada and was infamous for the numerous dust storms that occurred in the southern Great Plains. In this study, we present model results that indicate that the drought was caused by anomalous tropical sea surface temperatures during that decade and that interactions between the atmosphere and the land surface increased its severity. We also contrast the 1930s drought with other North American droughts of the 20th century.