Global mismatches between threat mapping research effort and the potential of threat abatement actions to reduce extinction risk.

Threat mapping is a necessary tool for identifying and abating direct threats to species in the ongoing extinction crisis. There are known gaps in the threat mapping literature for particular threats and geographic locations, and it remains unclear if the distribution of research effort is appropriately targeted relative to conservation need. We aimed to determine the drivers of threat mapping research effort and to quantify gaps that, if filled, could inform actions with the highest potential to reduce species' extinction risk. We used a negative binomial generalized linear model to analyze research effort as a function of threat abatement potential (quantified as the potential reduction in species extinction risk from abating threats), species richness, land area, and human pressure. The model showed that threat mapping research effort increased by 1.1 to 1.2 times per standardized unit change in threat abatement potential. However, species richness and land area were stronger predictors of research effort overall. The greatest areas of mismatch between research effort and threat abatement potential, receiving disproportionately low research effort, were related to the threats to species of agriculture, aquaculture, and biological resource use across the tropical regions of the Americas, Asia, and Madagascar. Conversely, the threat of linear infrastructure (e.g., roads and rails) across regions, the threat of biological resource use (e.g., hunting or collection) in sub-Saharan Africa, and overall threats in North America and Europe all received disproportionately high research effort. We discuss the range of methodological and sociopolitical factors that may be behind the overall trends and specific areas of mismatch we found. We urge a stronger emphasis on targeting research effort toward those threats and geographic locations where threat abatement activities could make the greatest contribution to reducing global species extinction risk.

Disparidades mundiales entre la investigación sobre el esfuerzo de mapeo de amenazas y la potencial amenaza de las acciones de abatimiento para reducir el riesgo de extinción Resumen El mapeo de amenazas es una herramienta necesaria para identificar y abatir las amenazas directas para las especies en la actual crisis de extinción. Existen vacíos conocidos en la literatura del mapeo de amenazas para amenazas particulares y ubicaciones geográficas, y todavía no está claro si la distribución de los esfuerzos de investigación está enfocada de forma apropiada en relación con las necesidades de conservación. Buscamos determinar los factores que influyen sobre el esfuerzo de investigación del mapeo de amenazas y cuantificar los vacíos que, si se cierran, podrían guiar las acciones con el potencial más alto para reducir el riesgo de extinción de las especies. Usamos un modelo binomial lineal negativo generalizado para analizar el esfuerzo de investigación como función del potencial de abatimiento de amenazas (cuantificado como la reducción potencial en el riesgo de extinción a partir del abatimiento de amenazas), la riqueza de especies, el área del suelo y la presión humana. El modelo mostró que el esfuerzo de investigación del mapeo de amenazas incrementó entre 1.1 y 1.2 veces por unidad estandarizada de cambio en el potencial de abatimiento de amenazas. Sin embargo, la riqueza de especies y el área del suelo fueron pronósticos más sólidos del esfuerzo de investigación generalizado. Las principales áreas de disparidad entre el esfuerzo de investigación y el potencial de abatimiento de amenazas, las cuales reciben un esfuerzo de investigación desproporcionalmente bajo, estuvieron relacionadas con las amenazas para las especies de agricultura, acuacultura y recursos biológicos que se usan en las regiones tropicales de América, Asia y Madagascar. Al contrario, la amenaza de la infraestructura lineal (p. ej.: carreteras y vías férreas) en las regiones, la amenaza del uso de recursos biológicos (p. ej.: caza o recolección) en la África subsahariana y las amenazas generales en América del Norte y en Europa recibieron un esfuerzo de investigación desproporcionalmente alto. Abordamos el rango de factores metodológicos y sociopolíticos que pueden estar detrás de las tendencias generales y las áreas específicas de disparidad que encontramos. Instamos a un mayor énfasis en el enfoque del esfuerzo de investigación hacia aquellas amenazas y ubicaciones geográficas en donde las actividades de abatimiento de amenazas podrían brindar una mayor contribución para reducir el riesgo mundial de extinción de especies.

Precipitation buffers temperature-driven local extinctions of moths at warm range margins.

Species' distributions are moving polewards in response to climate change, and although range expansions of relatively warm-adapted species are widely reported, reports of range retractions in cool-adapted species are less common. Here, we analysed species' distribution shifts for 76 cool-adapted moths in Great Britain using citizen science occurrence records from the National Moth Recording Scheme over a 40-year period. Although we find evidence for trailing edge shifts to higher latitudes, shifts in species' range centroids are oriented towards the north-west, and are more closely correlated with directional changes in total precipitation than average temperature. We also found that species' local extinction risk is higher in areas where temperature is high and precipitation is low, but this risk diminishes as precipitation increases. Adaptation efforts should therefore focus on maintaining or increasing water availability as the climate continues to change.

Fine-scale climate change: modelling spatial variation in biologically meaningful rates of warming.

The existence of fine-grain climate heterogeneity has prompted suggestions that species may be able to survive future climate change in pockets of suitable microclimate, termed 'microrefugia'. However, evidence for microrefugia is hindered by lack of understanding of how rates of warming vary across a landscape. Here, we present a model that is applied to provide fine-grained, multidecadal estimates of temperature change based on the underlying physical processes that influence microclimate. Weather station and remotely derived environmental data were used to construct physical variables that capture the effects of terrain, sea surface temperatures, altitude and surface albedo on local temperatures, which were then calibrated statistically to derive gridded estimates of temperature. We apply the model to the Lizard Peninsula, United Kingdom, to provide accurate (mean error = 1.21 °C; RMS error = 1.63 °C) hourly estimates of temperature at a resolution of 100 m for the period 1977-2014. We show that rates of warming vary across a landscape primarily due to long-term trends in weather conditions. Total warming varied from 0.87 to 1.16 °C, with the slowest rates of warming evident on north-east-facing slopes. This variation contributed to substantial spatial heterogeneity in trends in bioclimatic variables: for example, the change in the length of the frost-free season varied from +11 to -54 days and the increase in annual growing degree-days from 51 to 267 °C days. Spatial variation in warming was caused primarily by a decrease in daytime cloud cover with a resulting increase in received solar radiation, and secondarily by a decrease in the strength of westerly winds, which has amplified the effects on temperature of solar radiation on west-facing slopes. We emphasize the importance of multidecadal trends in weather conditions in determining spatial variation in rates of warming, suggesting that locations experiencing least warming may not remain consistent under future climate change.

Anthropogenic climate and land-use change drive short- and long-term biodiversity shifts across taxa.

Climate change and habitat loss present serious threats to nature. Yet, due to a lack of historical land-use data, the potential for land-use change and baseline land-use conditions to interact with a changing climate to affect biodiversity remains largely unknown. Here, we use historical land use, climate data and species observation data to investigate the patterns and causes of biodiversity change in Great Britain. We show that anthropogenic climate change and land conversion have broadly led to increased richness, biotic homogenization and warmer-adapted communities of British birds, butterflies and plants over the long term (50+ years) and short term (20 years). Biodiversity change was found to be largely determined by baseline environmental conditions of land use and climate, especially over shorter timescales, suggesting that biodiversity change in recent periods could reflect an inertia derived from past environmental changes. Climate-land-use interactions were mostly related to long-term change in species richness and beta diversity across taxa. Semi-natural grasslands (in a broad sense, including meadows, pastures, lowland and upland heathlands and open wetlands) were associated with lower rates of biodiversity change, while their contribution to national-level biodiversity doubled over the long term. Our findings highlight the need to protect and restore natural and semi-natural habitats, alongside a fuller consideration of individual species' requirements beyond simple measures of species richness in biodiversity management and policy.

Rapid seagrass meadow expansion in an Indian Ocean bright spot.

The areal extent of seagrass meadows is in rapid global decline, yet they provide highly valuable societal benefits. However, their conservation is hindered by data gaps on current and historic spatial extents. Here, we outline an approach for national-scale seagrass mapping and monitoring using an open-source platform (Google Earth Engine) and freely available satellite data (Landsat, Sentinel-2) that can be readily applied in other countries globally. Specifically, we map contemporary (2021) and historical (2000-2021; n = 10 maps) shallow water seagrass extent across the Maldives. We found contemporary Maldivian seagrass extent was ~ 105 km2 (overall accuracy = 82.04%) and, notably, that seagrass area increased threefold between 2000 and 2021 (linear model, + 4.6 km2 year-1, r2 = 0.93, p < 0.001). There was a strongly significant association between seagrass and anthropogenic activity (p < 0.001) that we hypothesize to be driven by nutrient loading and/or altered sediment dynamics (from large scale land reclamation), which would represent a beneficial anthropogenic influence on Maldivian seagrass meadows. National-scale tropical seagrass expansion is unique against the backdrop of global seagrass decline and we therefore highlight the Maldives as a rare global seagrass 'bright spot' highly worthy of increased attention across scientific, commercial, and conservation policy contexts.

Linking climate warming and land conversion to species' range changes across Great Britain.

Although increased temperatures are known to reinforce the effects of habitat destruction at local to landscape scales, evidence of their additive or interactive effects is limited, particularly over larger spatial extents and longer timescales. To address these deficiencies, we created a dataset of land-use changes over 75 years, documenting the loss of over half (>3000 km2) the semi-natural grassland of Great Britain. Pairing this dataset with climate change data, we tested for relationships to distribution changes in birds, butterflies, macromoths, and plants (n = 1192 species total). We show that individual or additive effects of climate warming and land conversion unambiguously increased persistence probability for 40% of species, and decreased it for 12%, and these effects were reflected in both range contractions and expansions. Interactive effects were relatively rare, being detected in less than 1 in 5 species, and their overall effect on extinction risk was often weak. Such individualistic responses emphasise the importance of including species-level information in policies targeting biodiversity and climate adaptation.

Habitat associations of species show consistent but weak responses to climate.

Different vegetation types can generate variation in microclimates at local scales, potentially buffering species from adverse climates. To determine if species could respond to such microclimates under climatic warming, we evaluated whether ectothermic species (butterflies) can exploit favourable microclimates and alter their use of different habitats in response to year-to-year variation in climate. In both relatively cold (Britain) and warm (Catalonia) regions of their geographical ranges, most species shifted into cooler, closed habitats (e.g. woodland) in hot years, and into warmer, open habitats (e.g. grassland) in cooler years. Additionally, three-quarters of species occurred in closed habitats more frequently in the warm region than in the cool region. Thus, species shift their local distributions and alter their habitat associations to exploit favourable microclimates, although the magnitude of the shift (approx. 1.3% of individuals from open to shade, per degree Celsius) is unlikely to buffer species from impacts of regional climate warming.

Reply to Le Roux et al.

Suggitt et al. reply to the concerns raised by Le Roux et al. on their original manuscript.

Widespread Effects of Climate Change on Local Plant Diversity.

Human activity has sent many measures of biodiversity into long-term decline, and there are suggestions that the sheer scale of this impact is sufficient to consider the modern era as a geological epoch of its own, known as "The Anthropocene" [1]. However, recent meta-analyses show that local alpha diversity is often stable or slightly increasing [2-4]. Here, we show that the local alpha diversity (species richness) of plants found in quadrats and transects has increased the most in cooler regions of the world that have experienced the highest absolute changes (i.e., changes in either direction) in climate. The greatest statistical support is for the effects of precipitation change. On average, alpha diversity declined slightly (-4.2% per decade) in the third of sites that experienced the lowest precipitation change but increased (+10.8% per decade) in the third of sites with the highest precipitation change. These results suggest that the "perturbation" of local communities during climatic transitions increases the average number of species, at least temporarily, an effect likely to remain important as climate change continues.

Research priorities for maintaining biodiversity's contributions to people in Latin America.

Maintaining biodiversity is crucial for ensuring human well-being. The authors participated in a workshop held in Palenque, Mexico, in August 2018, that brought together 30 mostly early-career scientists working in different disciplines (natural, social and economic sciences) with the aim of identifying research priorities for studying the contributions of biodiversity to people and how these contributions might be impacted by environmental change. Five main groups of questions emerged: (1) Enhancing the quantity, quality, and availability of biodiversity data; (2) Integrating different knowledge systems; (3) Improved methods for integrating diverse data; (4) Fundamental questions in ecology and evolution; and (5) Multi-level governance across boundaries. We discuss the need for increased capacity building and investment in research programmes to address these challenges.

Future climate warming and changes to mountain permafrost in the Bolivian Andes.

Water resources in many of the world's arid mountain ranges are threatened by climate change, and in parts of the South American Andes this is exacerbated by glacier recession and population growth. Alternative sources of water, such as more resilient permafrost features (e.g. rock glaciers), are expected to become increasingly important as current warming continues. Assessments of current and future permafrost extent under climate change are not available for the Southern Hemisphere, yet are required to inform decision making over future water supply and climate change adaptation strategies. Here, downscaled model outputs were used to calculate the projected changes in permafrost extent for a first-order assessment of an example region, the Bolivian Andes. Using the 0 °C mean annual air temperature as a proxy for permafrost extent, these projections show that permafrost areas will shrink from present day extent by up to 95 % under warming projected for the 2050s and by 99 % for the 2080s (under the IPCC A1B scenario, given equilibrium conditions). Using active rock glaciers as a proxy for the lower limit of permafrost extent, we also estimate that projected temperature changes would drive a near total loss of currently active rock glaciers in this region by the end of the century. In conjunction with glacier recession, a loss of permafrost extent of this magnitude represents a water security problem for the latter part of the 21st century, and it is likely that this will have negative effects on one of South America's fastest growing cities (La Paz), with similar implications for other arid mountain regions.

Using in situ management to conserve biodiversity under climate change.

Successful conservation will increasingly depend on our ability to help species cope with climate change. While there has been much attention on accommodating or assisting range shifts, less has been given to the alternative strategy of helping species survive climate change through in situ management.Here we provide a synthesis of published evidence examining whether habitat management can be used to offset the adverse impacts on biodiversity of changes in temperature, water availability and sea-level rise. Our focus is on practical methods whereby the local environmental conditions experienced by organisms can be made more suitable.Many studies suggest that manipulating vegetation structure can alter the temperature and moisture conditions experienced by organisms, and several demonstrate that these altered conditions benefit species as regional climatic conditions become unsuitable. The effects of topography on local climatic conditions are even better understood, but the alteration of topography as a climate adaptation tool is not ingrained in conservation practice. Trials of topographic alteration in the field should therefore be a priority for future research.Coastal systems have the natural capacity to keep pace with climate change, but require sufficient sediment supplies and space for landward migration to do so. There is an extensive literature on managed realignment. While the underlying rationale is simple, successful implementation requires careful consideration of elevation and past land use. Even with careful management, restored habitats may not attain the physical and biological attributes of natural habitats. Synthesis and applications. The recent literature provides a compelling case that some of the adverse effects of climate change can be offset by appropriate management. However, much of the evidence for this is indirect and too few studies provide empirical tests of the long-term effectiveness of these management interventions. It is clear from the existing evidence that some techniques have a higher risk of failure or unexpected outcomes than others and managers will need to make careful choices about which to implement. We have assessed the strength of evidence of these approaches in order to demonstrate to conservation professionals the risks involved.