Cervical screening uptake and rates of cervical dysplasia in the British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register for Rheumatoid Arthritis.

OBJECTIVES: To compare cervical screening attendance and cytology (high- and low-grade cervical dysplasia [HGCD and LGCD]) between women with RA and the English general population and between biologic DMARD (bDMARD)-naïve and exposed women. METHODS: The British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register for RA (BSRBR-RA), a national prospective study of RA treatment outcomes, was linked to the National Health Service Cervical Screening Programme, providing data for 12 785 women to compare with national screening data. Rates of HGCD/LGCD were compared with rates of negative smears using risk difference calculations between BSRBR-RA and national statistics. Within the BSRBR-RA, coverage was compared between those with low and high physical disability scores, while coverage and cytology results were compared between bDMARD-naïve and -exposed RA patients. RESULTS: The mean 5 year screening coverage was significantly higher in BSRBR-RA (83%) compared with the general population (79%), but lower in women with high disability (78%) compared with lesser disability (85%). Risk differences for HGCD were lower in the BSRBR-RA compared with national statistics, whereas risk differences for LGCD were higher. There was no statistically significant difference in the rates of HGCD or LGCD between bDMARD-exposed and -naïve women. CONCLUSION: This first-ever British analysis of cervical screening rates in RA has shown that women with RA have higher screening rates than the general population. Disability negatively impacts attendance, but treatment type does not. Women with RA did not have an increased risk of HGCD compared with national statistics, which was also not influenced by bDMARD exposure.

Malignancy and mortality rates in patients with severe psoriatic arthritis requiring tumour-necrosis factor alpha inhibition: results from the British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register.

Objective: The aim of this study was to compare the incidence of cancer and all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates among a cohort of patients with severe PsA receiving TNF inhibitor (TNFi) with those of the general UK population. Methods: Cancers and deaths were identified from the national cancer and the national death registers in patients with PsA included in the British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register from start of TNFi until 31 December 2012. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) and standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated using published cancer and death rates for the general population. SIRs were calculated for both overall cancer risk and non-melanoma skin cancer. SMRs were calculated for (1) all-cause mortality, (2) death from malignancy and (3) death from circulatory disease. Gender-specific analyses were also performed. Results: Thirty-four cancers and 41 deaths among 709 patients were observed. The risk of malignancy overall was not increased (SIR 0.94; 95% CI: 0.65, 1.34). However, there was a significantly increased incidence of non-melanoma skin cancer (SIR 2.12; 95% CI: 1.19, 3.50). The all-cause mortality rate in our cohort was increased (SMR 1.56; CI: 1.12, 2.11). Death from malignancy was not increased, but death from coronary heart disease was increased (SMR 2.42; 95% CI: 1.11, 4.59). Conclusion: In our cohort of patients with severe PsA, the overall incidence of malignancy was similar to that of the general population, although the incidence of non-melanoma skin cancer was increased. All-cause mortality was significantly increased, in part due to excess of deaths attributed to coronary heart disease.

Have the 10-year outcomes of patients with early inflammatory arthritis improved in the new millennium compared with the decade before? Results from the Norfolk Arthritis Register.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the 10-year outcome (disease activity, disability, mortality) of two cohorts of patients with inflammatory polyarthritis (IP) recruited 10 years apart. METHODS: Patients with IP were recruited to the Norfolk Arthritis Register from 1990 to 1994 (cohort 1 (C1)) and from 2000 to 2004 (cohort 2 (C2)). Demographic and clinical data were collected at baseline and at years 1, 2, 3, 5, 7 and 10. Longitudinal disease activity (swollen/tender 51 joint counts (SJC51/TJC51)) and disability (Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ)) were compared between the cohorts using population-average negative binomial regression and generalised estimating equation analysis, respectively. Risk of 10-year mortality was compared between cohorts using Cox models. Risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality was compared between cohorts using competing risks analysis. Mortality rate ratios (MRR), adjusted for changes in mortality risk of the general population, were calculated using Poisson regression. RESULTS: In total 1653 patients were recruited (C1=1022, C2=631). Patients in C2 had 17% lower SJC51 than C1 over 10 years (95% CI -23% to -10%), whereas TJC51 and HAQ were comparable. C2 patients had reduced risk of all-cause and CVD mortality compared with C1 (all-cause: HR 0.72, 95% CI 0.56 to 0.95; CVD: subhazard ratio 0.58, 95% CI 0.37 to 0.93). After accounting for changes in mortality risk in the general population, the difference in mortality was non-significant (all-cause: MRR 0.78, 95% CI 0.56 to 1.10; CVD: MRR 0.77, 95% CI 0.48 to 1.24). CONCLUSION: Disease activity significantly improved in the new millennium, whereas disability and mortality were unchanged.

Serious infection risk after 1 year between patients with rheumatoid arthritis treated with rituximab or with a second TNFi after initial TNFi failure: results from The British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register for Rheumatoid Arthritis.

Objectives: Both TNF inhibitors (TNFi) and rituximab (RTX), a B-cell depleting biologic, can disrupt the immune system in RA. RTX is licensed in Europe for use following TNFi failure. However, safety data on serious infections (SIs) are scarce for RTX in daily practice. This analysis aims to compare the risk of SIs in the first year after a switch to either TNFi or RTX in patients who have failed a first TNFi. Methods: This study included patients with RA registered with the British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register (BSRBR-RA) who switched to either a second TNFi or RTX after failing a first TNFi. Patients were followed until first SI, treatment discontinuation, last recorded follow-up or the end of the first year after the switch, whichever came first. SI was defined as requiring hospitalization, intravenous antibiotics or resulting in death. The risk of first SI was compared between TNFi and RTX using Cox proportional hazard models adjusted using propensity scores using inverse probability of treatment weighting. Results: This analysis included 3419 TNFi and 1396 RTX patients contributing 2765 and 1224 person-years (pyrs), respectively. SI occurred in 164 (4.8%) TNFi and 81 (5.8%) RTX patients giving a crude rate of 59 and 66 SI/1000 pyrs, respectively. The adjusted hazard ratio for SI was 1.0 (95% CI: 0.7, 1.4). Conclusion: The risk of SIs was comparable over the first year of treatment between TNFi and RTX treatment in patients who had failed a single prior TNFi.

Long-term persistence with rituximab in patients with rheumatoid arthritis.

Objectives: To investigate the long term persistence of rituximab (RTX) in a large observational RA cohort, investigate persistence of RTX when used as a first or second line biologic DMARD (bDMARD), to characterize subsequent bDMARD treatment following RTX. Methods: Patients with RA starting treatment with RTX (MabThera) between 2008 and 2011 were recruited into the British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register for RA. Duration of RTX treatment over the first 4 years after initiation was estimated via Kaplan-Meier estimates and the reason for discontinuation was ascertained. Subsequent bDMARD use following RTX discontinuation was characterised. Treatment survival in bDMARD-naïve (first line RTX use) and experienced (second line RTX use) cohorts was described. Results: One thousand six hundred and twenty-nine patients were recruited (1371 bDMARD-experienced and 258 bDMARD-naïve). Sixty percent of the whole cohort remained on RTX after 4 years. Ineffectiveness (46%) and death (24%) were the most common reason for RTX discontinuation. RTX discontinuation was associated with RF negativity for the bDMARD-experienced cohort. Of those that discontinued RTX, 46% initiated treatment with another bDMARD, with tocilizumab being the most common. Conclusion: This large study of patients initiating RTX treatment for severe RA found that 60% persisted with treatment after 4 years. This study also identified that RTX is tolerated well when used as a first or second line bDMARD.

Risk of lymphoma in patients exposed to antitumour necrosis factor therapy: results from the British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register for Rheumatoid Arthritis.

OBJECTIVES: Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) are at increased risk of lymphoma compared with the general population. There are concerns that tumour necrosis factor inhibitors (TNFi) may exacerbate this risk. However, since the excess risk of lymphoma in RA is related to the cumulative burden of inflammation, TNFi may conversely reduce the risk of lymphoma by decreasing the burden of inflammation. The aim of this study was to compare the risk of lymphoma in subjects with RA treated with TNFi with those treated with non-biological therapy. METHODS: Subjects diagnosed by a rheumatologist with RA enrolled in the British Society for Rheumatology Rheumatoid Arthritis Register (BSRBR-RA), a prospective cohort study, were followed until first lymphoma, death or until 30 November 2013. Rates of lymphoma in the TNFi and non-biological-treated cohorts were compared using Cox regression. RESULTS: 11 931 TNFi-treated patients were compared with 3367 biological-naive patients. 84 lymphomas (88 (95% CI 70 to 109) per 100 000 person-years) were reported in the TNFi cohort and 30 lymphomas (154 (95% CI 104 to 220)) in the biological-naive cohort. After adjusting for differences in baseline characteristics, there was no difference in the risk of lymphoma for the TNFi versus the biological-naive group: HR 1.00 (95% CI 0.56 to 1.80). No risk differences were observed for individual TNFi. CONCLUSIONS: In medium-term follow-up, there is no evidence that tumour necrosis factor inhibition influences the risk of lymphoma over the background risk in subjects with RA.

Relationship between exposure to tumour necrosis factor inhibitor therapy and incidence and severity of myocardial infarction in patients with rheumatoid arthritis.

OBJECTIVES: Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) are at increased risk of myocardial infarction (MI) compared with subjects without RA, with the increased risk driven potentially by inflammation. Tumour necrosis factor inhibitors (TNFi) may modulate the risk and severity of MI. We compared the risk and severity of MI in patients treated with TNFi with that in those receiving synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (sDMARDs). METHODS: This analysis included patients with RA recruited from 2001 to 2009 to the British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register for Rheumatoid Arthritis starting TNFi (etanercept/infliximab/adalimumab) and a biologic-naïve comparator cohort receiving sDMARD. All patients were followed via physician and patient questionnaires and national death register linkage. Additionally, all patients were linked to the Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project, a national registry of hospitalisations for MI. Patients were censored at first verified MI, death, 90 days following TNFi discontinuation, last physician follow-up or 20 April 2010, whichever came first. The risk of first MI was compared between cohorts using COX regression, adjusted with propensity score deciles (PD). MI phenotype and severity were compared using descriptive statistics. 6-month mortality post MI was compared using logistic regression. RESULTS: 252 verified first MIs were analysed: 58 in 3058 patients receiving sDMARD and 194 in 11 200 patients receiving TNFi (median follow-up per person 3.5 years and 5.3 years, respectively). The PD-adjusted HR of MI in TNFi referent to sDMARD was 0.61 (95% CI 0.41 to 0.89). No statistically significant differences in MI severity or mortality were observed between treatment groups. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with RA receiving TNFi had a decreased risk of MI compared with patients with RA receiving sDMARD therapy over the medium term. This might be attributed to a direct action of TNFi on the atherosclerotic process or better overall disease control.

Predictors of and outcomes following orthopaedic joint surgery in patients with early rheumatoid arthritis followed for 20 years.

Objectives: To analyse predictors and outcomes of major orthopaedic surgery in a cohort of RA patients followed for 20 years. Methods: Patients were recruited to the Norfolk Arthritis Register from 1990 to 1994. Demographic and clinical variables (including the HAQ and swollen and tender joint counts) were assessed at baseline; the 2010 ACR/EULAR RA classification criteria were applied. Patients reported incident comorbidities and major orthopaedic joint surgery (replacement, synovectomy, fusion, excision) when reassessed at years 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 10, 15 and 20. Baseline and time-varying predictors of orthopaedic surgery were assessed using a conditional risk set model, a type of multiple-failure survival analysis. Change in disability after surgery was assessed using weighted mixed-effects linear regression. Results: Of 589 RA patients [median age 56 years (IQR 45-68); 66.7% women] recruited to the Norfolk Arthritis Register with at least one follow-up, 102 reported a total of 180 major surgeries, with hip replacement being the most common (n = 68/180). Patients reporting major surgery had worse functional disability at all time points, but similar swollen/tender joint counts to those without major surgery. Each unit increase in HAQ score was associated with a doubling of the patient's risk of having surgery by the next assessment [hazard ratio 2.11 per unit increase in HAQ (95% CI 1.64, 2.71)]. Patients had worse HAQ scores after surgery than patients not undergoing surgery [ß = 0.17 (95% CI 0.03, 0.32)]. Conclusion: HAQ was the strongest predictor of future major surgery. This supports the argument that HAQ should be included in routine clinical assessment.

Predictors and outcomes of sustained, intermittent or never achieving remission in patients with recent onset inflammatory polyarthritis: results from the Norfolk Arthritis Register.

OBJECTIVES: Early remission is the current treatment strategy for patients with inflammatory polyarthritis (IP) and RA. Our objective was to identify baseline factors associated with achieving remission: sustained (SR), intermittent (IR) or never (NR) over a 5-year period in patients with early IP. METHODS: Clinical and demographic data of patients with IP recruited to the Norfolk Arthritis Register (NOAR) were obtained at baseline and years 1, 2, 3 and 5. Remission was defined as no tender or swollen joints (out of 51). Patients were classified as NR or PR, respectively, if they were in remission at: no assessment or ⩾3 consecutive assessments after baseline, and IR otherwise. Ordinal regression and a random effects model, respectively, were used to examine the association between baseline factors, remission group and HAQ scores over time. RESULTS: A total of 868 patients (66% female) were included. Of these, 54%, 34% and 12% achieved NR, IR and SR, respectively. In multivariate analysis, female sex (odds ratio, OR 0.47, 95% CI: 0.35, 0.63), higher tender joint count (OR = 0.94, 95% CI: 0.93, 0.96), higher HAQ (OR = 0.59, 95% CI: 0.48, 0.74), being obese (OR = 0.70, 95% CI: 0.50, 0.99), hypertensive (OR = 0.67, 95% CI: 0.50, 0.90) or depressed (OR = 0.74, 95% CI: 0.55, 1.00) at baseline were independent predictors of being in a lower remission group. IR and SR were associated with lower HAQ scores over time and lower DAS28 at year 5. CONCLUSION: Women with higher tender joint count and disability at baseline, depression, obesity and hypertension were less likely to achieve remission. This information could help when stratifying patients for more aggressive therapy.

The incidence of cancer in patients with rheumatoid arthritis and a prior malignancy who receive TNF inhibitors or rituximab: results from the British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register-Rheumatoid Arthritis.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the influence of TNF inhibitor (TNFi) therapy and rituximab (RTX) upon the incidence of cancer in patients with RA and prior malignancy. METHODS: The study population comprised RA subjects with a prior malignancy reported to the UK national cancer registers, recruited to the British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register from 2001 to 2013. We compared rates of first incident malignancy in a TNFi cohort, RTX cohort and synthetic DMARDs (sDMARD) cohort. RESULTS: We identified 425 patients with a prior malignancy from 18 000 RA patients in the study. Of these, 101 patients developed a new malignancy. The rates of incident malignancy were 33.3 events/1000 person-years (py) in the TNFi cohort, 24.7 events/1000 py in the RTX cohort and 53.8 events/1000 py in the sDMARD cohort. The age- and gender-adjusted hazard ratio was 0.55 (95% CI: 0.35, 0.86) for the TNFi cohort and 0.43 (95% CI: 0.10, 1.80) for the RTX cohort in comparison with the sDMARDs cohort. The 17.0% of patients in the sDMARDs cohort had a recurrence of the same cancer in comparison with the 12.8% and the 4.3% in the TNFi and RTX cohorts, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Although numbers are still low, it seems that patients with RA and prior malignancy selected to receive either a TNFi or RTX in the UK do not have an increased risk of future incident malignancy.

Risk of solid cancer in patients exposed to anti-tumour necrosis factor therapy: results from the British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register for Rheumatoid Arthritis.

BACKGROUND: Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have an increased risk of certain solid cancers, in particular lung cancer, compared to the general population. Treatment with tumour necrosis factor (TNF) inhibitors (TNFi) may further enhance this risk. OBJECTIVES: To compare the risk of solid cancer in patients with RA treated with TNFi to that in patients treated with non-biologic (synthetic) disease modifying antirheumatic drugs (sDMARDs). METHODS: Patients with a physician diagnosis of RA enrolled in the British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register, a national prospective cohort study established in 2001 to monitor the long-term safety of TNFi, were followed via record linkage with the national cancer registries until first solid cancer, death, for 5 years, or until 2011. Rates of solid cancers in 11 767 patients without prior cancer who received TNFi were compared to those in 3249 patients without prior cancer treated with sDMARDs. RESULTS: 427 solid cancers were reported in 52 549 patient-years follow-up for the TNFi group (81 (95% CI 74 to 89) per 10 000 patient-years) and 136 cancers were reported in 11 672 patient-years in the sDMARD cohort (117 (95% CI 98 to 138) per 10 000 patient-years). After adjusting for differences in baseline characteristics there was no difference in risk of solid cancer for TNFi compared to sDMARD treated patients: HR 0.83 (95% CI 0.64 to 1.07). There was no difference in the relative risk of cancer for any of the individual TNFi drugs. CONCLUSIONS: The addition of TNFi to sDMARD does not alter the risk of cancer in RA patients selected for TNFi in the UK.

The influence of behavioural and psychological factors on medication adherence over time in rheumatoid arthritis patients: a study in the biologics era.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate levels of self-reported adherence to biologic treatment and establish the contribution of demographic, physical and psychological factors to biologic medication adherence in an RA cohort. METHODS: Adalimumab-treated patients were recruited through the British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register for RA between May 2007 and April 2009. Demographic and baseline psychological measures including illness and medication beliefs were collected. Disease activity (28-item DAS), physical function (HAQ) and quality of life (36-item Short Form Health Survey) were also measured at baseline and at 6, 12 and 18 months. Adherence was assessed at each follow-up using the patient self-completed Compliance Questionnaire for Rheumatology (CQR). Multilevel mixed effects modelling analysis was performed to investigate predictors of adherence. RESULTS: Of the 329 Adalimumab-treated patients included, low adherence (CQR score <65) was reported in 23%, with 41% reporting low adherence at at least one time point. After controlling for age and disease duration, factors independently predictive of increased adherence were increased belief in medication necessity, with baseline effect diminishing over time [ß coefficient 1.68 (s.e. 0.19), P = 0.0001], lower medication concerns [0.50 (0.15), P = 0.001], with this effect remaining throughout follow-up, increased professional or family member support [0.81 (0.32), P = 0.01], strong views of illness being chronic [0.32 (0.14), P = 0.025] and increased treatment control [0.41 (0.19), P = 0.032]. CONCLUSION: Wider recognition of the importance of psychological factors, particularly medication beliefs, in driving medication adherence could have substantial clinical and health economic benefits in RA. The psychological factors we have identified are putative targets for strategies to improve adherence in RA.

Association of HLA-DRB1 haplotypes with rheumatoid arthritis severity, mortality, and treatment response.

IMPORTANCE: Advances have been made in identifying genetic susceptibility loci for autoimmune diseases, but evidence is needed regarding their association with prognosis and treatment response. OBJECTIVE: To assess whether specific HLA-DRB1 haplotypes associated with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) susceptibility are also associated with radiological severity, mortality, and response to tumor necrosis factor (TNF) inhibitor drugs. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The Norfolk Arthritis Register (NOAR; 1691 patients and 2811 radiographs; recruitment: 1989-2008; 2008 as final follow-up) was used as a discovery cohort and the Early Rheumatoid Arthritis Study (421 patients and 3758 radiographs; recruitment: 1986-1999; 2005 as final follow-up) as an independent replication cohort for studies of radiographic outcome. Mortality studies were performed in the NOAR cohort (2432 patients; recruitment: 1990-2007; 2011 as final follow-up) and studies of treatment response in the Biologics in Rheumatoid Arthritis Genetics and Genomics Study Syndicate cohort (1846 patients enrolled at initiation of TNF inhibitor; recruitment: 2006-2010; 2011 as final follow-up). Longitudinal statistical modeling was performed to integrate multiple radiograph records per patient over time. All patients were from the United Kingdom and had self-reported white ancestry. EXPOSURES: Sixteen HLA-DRB1 haplotypes defined by amino acids at positions 11, 71, and 74. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Radiological outcome using the Larsen score (range: 0 [none] to 200 [severe joint damage]) and erosions of the hands and feet on radiographs, all-cause mortality, and treatment response measured by change in Disease Activity Score based on 28 joint counts and European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) response. RESULTS: Patients with RA and valine at position 11 of HLA-DRB1 had the strongest association with radiological damage (OR, 1.75 [95% CI, 1.51-2.05], P = 4.6E-13). By year 5, the percentages of patients with erosions of the hands and feet were 48% of noncarriers (150/314) of valine at position 11, 61% of heterozygote carriers (130/213), and 74% of homozygote carriers (43/58). Valine at position 11 also was associated with higher all-cause mortality in patients with inflammatory polyarthritis (hazard ratio, 1.16 [95% CI, 1.03-1.31], P = .01) (noncarriers: 319 deaths in 1398 patients over 17,196 person-years, mortality rate of 1.9% per year; carriers: 324 deaths in 1116 patients in 13,208 person-years, mortality rate of 2.5% per year) and with better EULAR response to TNF inhibitor therapy (OR, 1.14 [95% CI, 1.01-1.30], P = .04) (noncarriers: 78% [439/561 patients] with moderate or good EULAR response; heterozygote carriers: 81% [698/866]; and homozygote carriers: 86% [277/322]). The risk hierarchy defined by HLA-DRB1 haplotypes was correlated between disease susceptibility, severity, and mortality, but inversely correlated with TNF inhibitor treatment response. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Among patients with RA, the HLA-DRB1 locus, which is associated with disease susceptibility, was also associated with radiological severity, mortality, and treatment response. Replication of these findings in other cohorts is needed as a next step in evaluating the role of HLA-DRB1 haplotype analysis for management of RA.

Early remission is associated with improved survival in patients with inflammatory polyarthritis: results from the Norfolk Arthritis Register.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to evaluate whether the early achievement of clinical remission influences overall survival in an inception cohort of patients with inflammatory polyarthritis (IP). METHODS: Consecutive early IP patients, recruited to a primary care based inception cohort from 1990 to 1994 and from 2000 to 2004 were eligible for this study. Remission was defined as absence of clinically detectable joint inflammation on a 51-joint count. In sensitivity analyses, less stringent definitions of remission were used, based on 28-joint counts. Remission was assessed at 1, 2 and 3 years after baseline. All patients were flagged with the national death register. Censoring was set at 1 May 2011. The effect of remission on mortality was analysed using the Cox proportional hazard regression model, and presented as HRs and 95% CIs. RESULTS: A total of 1251 patients were included in the analyses. Having been in remission at least once within the first 3 years of follow-up was associated with a significantly lower risk of death: HR 0.72 (95% CI 0.55 to 0.94). Patients who were in remission 1 year after the baseline assessments and had persistent remission over time had the greatest reduction in mortality risk compared with patients who never achieved remission within the first 3 years of follow-up: HR 0.58 (95% CI 0.37 to 0.91). Remission according to less stringent definitions was associated with progressively lower protective effect. CONCLUSIONS: Early and sustained remission is associated with decreased all-cause mortality in patients with IP. This result supports clinical remission as the target in the management of IP.

Using lifestyle factors to identify individuals at higher risk of inflammatory polyarthritis (results from the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer-Norfolk and the Norfolk Arthritis Register--the EPIC-2-NOAR Study).

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the association of lifestyle factors with risk of inflammatory polyarthritis (IP) and rheumatoid arthritis (RA). METHODS: The European Prospective Investigation of Cancer, Norfolk, UK (EPIC-Norfolk) gathered lifestyle data from participants aged 40-79 years from 1993 to 1997. Individuals who subsequently developed IP were identified by linkage with the Norfolk Arthritis Register. A Cox proportional hazard model was developed, and a score assigned to each risk factor to calculate the odds of developing IP. RESULTS: 25 455 EPIC participants were followed for a median (IQR) of 14.2 (12.9, 15.3) years; 184 developed incident IP (138 cumulatively fulfilled criteria for RA; 107 were seropositive). Pack-years of smoking were associated with increased risk of IP and RA in men (HR 1.21 (95% CI 1.08 to 1.37) per 10-pack-years) and seropositive IP (HR 1.24 (95% CI 1.10 to 1.41)) for all. Diabetes mellitus was associated with increased risk of IP (HR 2.54 (95% CI 1.26 to 5.09)), while alcohol (HR 0.86 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.99) per unit/day) and higher social class (HR 0.36 (95% CI 0.15 to 0.89) for professionals vs manual workers) were associated with reduced risk. Body mass index was associated with seronegative IP (HR 2.75 (95% CI 1.39 to 5.46) for obese vs normal-weight participants). In women, parity (HR 2.81 (95% CI 1.37 to 5.76) for ≥2 vs no children) was associated with increased risk, and breast feeding (HR 0.66 (95% CI 0.46 to 0.94) for every 52 weeks of breast feeding) was inversely associated with risk. Risk factors from the model were used to generate a 'risk score'. A total of 1159 (8.4%) women had scores reflecting a >3-fold increased risk of IP over those with a score of 0. CONCLUSIONS: Several easily ascertained clinical and lifestyle factors can be used to stratify populations for risk of IP.

N-terminal pro-brain-type natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP) and mortality risk in early inflammatory polyarthritis: results from the Norfolk Arthritis Registry (NOAR).

BACKGROUND: We measured N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP), a marker of cardiac dysfunction, in an inception cohort with early inflammatory polyarthritis (IP) and assessed its association with disease phenotype, cardiovascular disease (CVD), all-cause and CVD related mortality. METHODS: Subjects with early IP were recruited to the Norfolk Arthritis Register from January 2000 to December 2008 and followed up to death or until March 2010 including any data from the national death register. The associations of baseline NT-pro-BNP with IP related factors and CVD were assessed by linear regression. Cox proportional hazards models examined the independent association of baseline NT-pro-BNP with all-cause and CVD mortality. RESULTS: We studied 960 early IP subjects; 163 (17%) had prior CVD. 373 (39%) patients had a baseline NT-pro-BNP levels ≥ 100 pg/ml. NT-pro-BNP was associated with age, female gender, HAQ score, CRP, current smoking, history of hypertension, prior CVD and the presence of carotid plaque. 92 (10%) IP subjects died including 31 (3%) from CVD. In an age and gender adjusted analysis, having a raised NT-pro-BNP level (≥ 100 pg/ml) was associated with both all-cause and CVD mortality (adjusted HR (95% CI) 2.36 (1.42 to 3.94) and 3.40 (1.28 to 9.03), respectively). These findings were robust to adjustment for conventional CVD risk factors and prevalent CVD. CONCLUSIONS: In early IP patients, elevated NT-pro-BNP is related to HAQ and CRP and predicts all-cause and CVD mortality independently of conventional CVD risk factors. Further study is required to identify whether NT-pro-BNP may be clinically useful in targeting intensive interventions to IP patients at greatest risk of CVD.

Use of Bayesian multivariate meta-analysis to estimate the HAQ for mapping onto the EQ-5D questionnaire in rheumatoid arthritis.

BACKGROUND: In health technology assessment, decisions about reimbursement for new health technologies are largely based on effectiveness estimates. Sometimes, however, the target effectiveness estimates are not readily available. This may be because many alternative instruments measuring these outcomes are being used (and not all always reported) or an extended follow-up time of clinical trials is needed to evaluate long-term end points, leading to the limited data on the target clinical outcome. In the areas of highest priority in health care, decisions are required to be made on a short time scale. Therefore, alternative clinical outcomes, including surrogate end points, are increasingly being considered for use in evidence synthesis as part of economic evaluation. OBJECTIVE: To illustrate the potential effect of reduced uncertainty around the clinical outcome on the utility when estimating it from a multivariate meta-analysis. METHODS: Bayesian multivariate meta-analysis has been used to synthesize data on correlated outcomes in rheumatoid arthritis and to incorporate external data in the model in the form of informative prior distributions. Estimates of Health Assessment Questionnaire were then mapped onto the health-related quality-of-life measure EuroQol five-dimensional questionnaire, and the effect was compared with mapping the Health Assessment Questionnaire obtained from the univariate approach. RESULTS: The use of multivariate meta-analysis can lead to reduced uncertainty around the effectiveness parameter and ultimately uncertainty around the utility. CONCLUSIONS: By allowing all the relevant data to be incorporated in estimating clinical effectiveness outcomes, multivariate meta-analysis can improve the estimation of health utilities estimated through mapping methods. While reduced uncertainty may have an effect on decisions based on economic evaluation of new health technologies, the use of short-term surrogate end points can allow for early decisions. More research is needed to determine the circumstances under which uncertainty is reduced.

Postpublication validation of the 2010 American College of Rheumatology/European League Against Rheumatism classification criteria for rheumatoid arthritis: where do we stand?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: To summarise the results of the validation studies testing the 2010 American College of Rheumatology (ACR)/European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) classification criteria for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) to date and highlight the areas for future research. RECENT FINDINGS: The 2010 ACR/EULAR classification criteria for RA were developed aiming to identify patients early in the natural history of the disease. Validation studies conducted since their publication have demonstrated that, compared with the 1987 ACR criteria for RA, the 2010 criteria identify more patients earlier in the disease course. Sensitivity for the initiation of disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs and persistent disease is increased, with decreased specificity. Patients who are seronegative may not satisfy the 2010 criteria despite meeting the 1987 criteria at presentation. The 2010 criteria may also incorrectly classify some patients with self-limiting disease as RA. SUMMARY: The 2010 criteria appear to be superior to the 1987 criteria in terms of identifying individuals with early RA. Their validity in established disease and their ability to predict worse prognosis in the long term have yet to be determined.

The incidence of rheumatoid arthritis in the UK: comparisons using the 2010 ACR/EULAR classification criteria and the 1987 ACR classification criteria. Results from the Norfolk Arthritis Register.

OBJECTIVES: The development of new classification criteria for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) calls for a re-estimation of RA incidence rates. The objectives of this study were to estimate the age and sex-specific incidence rates (IR) of RA in Norfolk, England using the 2010 American College of Rheumatology (ACR)/European League Against Rheumatism criteria, and to compare those with IRs estimated using the 1987 ACR criteria. SETTING: The Norfolk Arthritis Register (NOAR), a large primary care inception cohort of patients with inflammatory oligo- and polyarthritis (IP) aged ≥ 16. METHODS: All patients notified to NOAR from 1990-5 with symptom onset in 1990 were included. The former Norwich Health Authority population was the denominator. Age and sex specific IRs using 1987 and 2010 classification criteria were calculated at baseline visit, annually for the first 3 years and at 5 years. RESULTS: 260 patients were notified to NOAR with symptom onset in 1990 and without an alternative diagnosis. IRs applying the 2010 criteria at baseline were 54/100 000 for women and 25/100 000 for men. Age and sex-specific IRs using the 2010 classification criteria at baseline were similar to cumulative IRs applying the 1987 criteria up to 5 years. However, some patients only ever satisfied one set of criteria and a proportion of IA patients (20%) did not satisfy either criteria set over 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: The 2010 criteria classify similar numbers of patients as having RA at baseline, as the 1987 criteria would have taken up to 5 years to identify.

Demographic and disease-related predictors of abnormal lung function in patients with established inflammatory polyarthritis and a comparison with the general population.

OBJECTIVES: To identify demographic and clinical predictors of obstructive lung disease (OLD) and restrictive lung disease (RLD) in patients with established inflammatory polyarthritis (IP) and to compare the prevalence of respiratory symptoms in patients with IP and the general population. METHOD: A total of 421 patients with IP underwent a spirometry test 15 years after inclusion in the Norfolk Arthritis Register (NOAR). Logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the predictive ability of demographic and clinical characteristics obtained at inclusion in NOAR and to assess their association with OLD or RLD at 15 years (age- and gender-adjusted). In addition, the prevalence of OLD and RLD was compared with a matched population (1:4) of people participating in the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer-Norfolk, a representative sample of the general population in Norfolk, UK. RESULTS: In this IP population, current smoking was the strongest predictor for OLD and functional disability for RLD. In the comparison study, 11.6% had OLD in the IP population and 4.9% in the general population (adjOR 2.01, 95% CI 1.26 to 3.22). The prevalence of RLD was not statistically different between the IP population and the general population (14.6% vs 17.5%; adjOR 0.76, 95% CI 0.53 to 1.10). CONCLUSIONS: OLD, but not RLD, is more prevalent in the IP population than in the general population. Functional disability is especially associated with RLD whereas smoking is associated with OLD. The latter finding, and the known association between smoking and a poor disease prognosis, underlines the importance of smoking cessation in patients with IP.