Natural conception: repeated predictions over time.

STUDY QUESTION: How can we predict chances of natural conception at various time points in couples diagnosed with unexplained subfertility? SUMMARY ANSWER: We developed a dynamic prediction model that can make repeated predictions over time for couples with unexplained subfertility that underwent a fertility workup at a fertility clinic. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: The most frequently used prediction model for natural conception (the 'Hunault model') estimates the probability of natural conception only once per couple, that is, after completion of the fertility workup. This model cannot be used for a second or third time for couples who wish to know their renewed chances after a certain period of expectant management. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: A prospective cohort studying the long-term follow-up of subfertile couples included in 38 centres in the Netherlands between January 2002 and February 2004. Couples with bilateral tubal occlusion, anovulation or a total motile sperm count <1 × 106 were excluded. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: The primary endpoint was time to natural conception, leading to an ongoing pregnancy. Follow-up time was censored at the start of treatment or at the last date of contact. In developing the new dynamic prediction model, we used the same predictors as the Hunault model, i.e. female age, duration of subfertility, female subfertility being primary or secondary, sperm motility and referral status. The performance of the model was evaluated in terms of calibration and discrimination. Additionally, we assessed the utility of the model in terms of the variability of the calculated predictions. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Of the 4999 couples in the cohort, 1053 (21%) women reached a natural conception leading to an ongoing pregnancy within a mean follow-up of 8 months (5th and 95th percentile: 1-21). Our newly developed dynamic prediction model estimated the median probability of conceiving in the first year after the completion of the fertility workup at 27%. For couples not yet pregnant after half a year, after one year and after one and a half years of expectant management, the median probability of conceiving over the next year was estimated at 20, 15 and 13%, respectively. The model performed fair in an internal validation. The prediction ranges were sufficiently broad to aid in counselling couples for at least two years after their fertility workup. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: The dynamic prediction model needs to be validated in an external population. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: This dynamic prediction model allows reassessment of natural conception chances after various periods of unsuccessful expectant management. This gives valuable information to counsel couples with unexplained subfertility that are seen for a fertility workup. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS: This study was facilitated by grant 945/12/002 from ZonMW, The Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development, The Hague, The Netherlands. No competing interests.

Clinical prediction models to inform individualized decision-making in subfertile couples: a stratified medicine approach.

Infertility is defined as failure to conceive after 1 year of unprotected intercourse. This dichotomization into fertile versus infertile, based on lack of conception over 12-month period, is fundamentally flawed. Time to conception is strongly influenced by factors such as female age and whilst a minority of couples have absolute infertility (sterility), many are able to conceive without intervention but may take longer to do so, reflecting the degree of subfertility. This natural variability in time to conception means that subfertility reflects a prognosis rather than a diagnosis. Current clinical prediction models in fertility only provide individualized estimates of the probability of either treatment-independent pregnancy or treatment-dependent pregnancy, but do not take account of both. Together, prognostic factors which are able to predict natural pregnancy and predictive factors of response to treatment would be required to estimate the absolute increase in pregnancy chances with treatment. This stratified medicine approach would be appropriate for facilitating personalized decision-making concerning whether or not to treat subfertile patients. Published models are thus far of little value for decisions regarding when to initiate treatment in patients who undergo a period of, ultimately unsuccessful, expectant management. We submit that a dynamic prediction approach, which estimates the change in subfertility prognosis over the course of follow-up, would be ideally suited to inform when the commencement of treatment would be most beneficial in those undergoing expectant management. Further research needs to be undertaken to identify treatment predictive factors and to identify or create databases to allow these approaches to be explored. In the interim, the most feasible approach is to use a combination of previously published clinical prediction models.

Comparison of two models predicting IVF success; the effect of time trends on model performance.

STUDY QUESTION: How well does the recently developed UK model predicting the success rate of IVF treatment (the 2011 Nelson model) perform in comparison with a UK model developed in the early 1990s (the Templeton model)? SUMMARY ANSWER: Both models showed similar performance, after correction for the increasing success rate over time of IVF. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: For counselling couples undergoing IVF treatment it is of paramount importance to be able to predict success. Several prediction models for the chance of success after IVF treatment have been developed. So far, the Templeton model has been recommended as the best approach after having been validated in several independent patient data sets. The Nelson model, developed in 2011 and characterized by the largest development sample containing the most recently treated couples, may well perform better. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: We tested both models in couples that were included in a national cohort study carried out in the Netherlands between the beginning of January 2002 and the end of December 2004. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: We analysed the IVF cycles of Dutch couples with primary infertility (n = 5176). The chance of success was calculated using the two UK models that had been developed using the information collected in the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority database. Women were treated in 1991-1994 (Templeton) or 2003-2007 (Nelson). The outcome of success for both UK models is the occurrence of a live birth after IVF but the outcome in the Dutch data is an ongoing pregnancy. In order to make the outcomes compatible, we used a factor to convert the chance of live birth to ongoing pregnancy and use the overall terms 'success or no success after IVF'. The discriminative ability and the calibration of both models were assessed, the latter before and after adjustment for time trends in IVF success rates. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: The two models showed a similarly limited degree of discriminative ability on the tested data (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.597 for the Templeton model and 0.590 for the Nelson model). The Templeton model underestimated the success rate (observed 21% versus predicted 14%); the Nelson model overestimated the success rate (observed 21% versus predicted 29%). When the models were adjusted for the changing success rates over time, the calibration of both models considerably improved (Templeton observed 21% versus predicted 20%; Nelson observed 21% versus predicted 24%). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: We could only test the models in couples with primary infertility because detailed information on secondary infertile couples was lacking in the Dutch data. This shortcoming may have negatively influenced the performance of the Nelson model. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: The changes in success rates over time should be taken into account when assessing prediction models for estimating the success rate of IVF treatment. In patients with primary infertility, the choice to use the Templeton or Nelson model is arbitrary.

Prenatal famine, birthweight, reproductive performance and age at menopause: the Dutch hunger winter families study.

STUDY QUESTION: Is there an association between acute prenatal famine exposure or birthweight and subsequent reproductive performance and age at menopause? SUMMARY ANSWER: No association was found between intrauterine famine exposure and reproductive performance, but survival analysis showed that women exposed in utero were 24% more likely to experience menopause at any age. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Associations between prenatal famine and subsequent reproductive performance have been examined previously with inconsistent results. Evidence for the effects of famine exposure on age at natural menopause is limited to one study of post-natal exposure. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: This cohort study included men and women born around the time of the Dutch famine of 1944-1945. The study participants (n = 1070) underwent standardized interviews on reproductive parameters at a mean age of 59 years. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: The participants were grouped as men and women with prenatal famine exposure (n = 407), their same-sex siblings (family controls, n = 319) or other men and women born before or after the famine period (time controls, n = 344). Associations of famine exposure with reproductive performance and menopause were analysed using logistic regression and survival analysis with competing risk, after controlling for family clustering. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Gestational famine exposure was not associated with nulliparity, age at birth of first child, difficulties conceiving or pregnancy outcome (all P> 0.05) in men or women. At any given age, women were more likely to experience menopause after gestational exposure to famine (hazard ratio 1.24; 95% CI 1.03, 1.51). The association was not attenuated with an additional control for a woman's birthweight. In this study, there was no association between birthweight and age at menopause after adjustment for gestational famine exposure. LIMITATIONS, REASON FOR CAUTION: Age at menopause was self-reported and assessed retrospectively. The study power to examine associations with specific gestational periods of famine exposure and reproductive function was limited. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Our findings support previous results that prenatal famine exposure is not related to reproductive performance in adult life. However, natural menopause occurs earlier after prenatal famine exposure, suggesting that early life events can affect organ function even at the ovarian level. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): This study was funded by the NHLBI/NIH (R01 HL-067914). TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Not applicable.

[Sensible family planning: pitfalls and dilemmas]. / Verstandige gezinsplanning: valkuilen en dilemma's.

In a recent article in this journal it was stated that Dutch women were sensible in having their first child between the ages of 25 and 35 years. One of the conclusions was that associated health risks increase after the age of 35 but are still acceptable even at the age of 40. We demonstrate that these conclusions were based on flawed assumptions. Postponing pregnancy until after the age of 30 increases the risks of infertility and breast cancer. Motherhood at a later age is associated with an increase in obstetrical complications, miscarriage and other adverse effects on the child. Therefore, for couples planning a family with 2 children or more, it would be sensible to have the first pregnancy not long after the mother reaches the age of 30 years, or even earlier. Couples should be informed on the risks of late parenthood in order to be able to take the right decisions concerning family planning.

[Reduction of patient discomfort, risks and costs, but not pregnancies, by a mild strategy for in-vitro fertilisation]. / Minder risico's, patiëntenongemak en kosten, maar niet minder zwangerschappen in de milde behandelstrategie voor ivf.

OBJECTIVE: To compare a so-called mild in-vitro fertilisation (IVF) treatment strategy with the standard IVF treatment on the following aspects: the chance of a pregnancy resulting in full-term live birth within 1 year, patient discomfort, multiple pregnancies, and costs. DESIGN: Randomised, open-label, prospective trial (www.controlledtrials.com, number ISRCTN35766970). METHOD: 404 patients were assigned to undergo either a mild treatment, consisting of ovarian stimulation with a gonadotrophin releasing hormone (GnRH) antagonist combined with single embryo transfer, or the standard treatment consisting of prolonged stimulation with a GnRH agonist combined with the transfer of two embryos. The primary outcome measures were: (1) the percentage of cumulative pregnancies within one year after randomisation leading to full-term live birth; (2) total costs per couple and child up to 6 weeks after expected delivery; and (3) overall patient discomfort. Analysis was done according to the intention-to-treat principle and was intended to show that the mild treatment was not inferior to the standard treatment; the non-inferiority threshold was -12.5%. RESULTS: The proportion of cumulative pregnancies resulting in full-term live birth after 1 year was 43.4% in the mild and 44.7% in the standard treatment group. The lower limit of the one-sided 95% confidence interval was equal to -9.8%. The respective proportion of couples with multiple pregnancies was 0.5% versus 13.1% (p < 0.0001), and the average total costs were Euro 8,333.- versus Euro 10,745.- (difference: Euro 2,412.-, 95% CI: 703-4,131). There were no statistically significant differences between the groups with regard to anxiety, depression, physical discomfort, and sleep quality. CONCLUSION: After 1 year of treatment, the cumulative percentage of pregnancies leading to full-term live birth and the total patient discomfort were the same for the mild treatment (average 2.3 IVF-cycles) and the standard treatment (average 1.7 IVF-cycles). The mild treatment significantly reduced the number of multiple pregnancies and the overall costs.

[The consequences of postponing pregnancy]. / Gevolgen van uitstel van zwangerschap.

The postponement of childbearing is determined by societal factors and is related to the fact that it is often difficult for women to combine an education, a job or a career with having children and taking care of a family. Especially gynaecologists are increasingly confronted with women who undergo the medical consequences of such postponement. Postponing the first pregnancy is accompanied by an increased risk of unwanted infertility. If women do succeed in becoming pregnant later in life, there is an increased risk of complications during pregnancy and delivery. The child runs a greater risk of chromosomal aberrations and of mental and physical handicaps related to increased numbers of premature births and fertility treatments. All these problems begin to increase after age 30, but especially after age 35. Finally, the risk of breast cancer is also increased if a woman delays the birth of her first child or remains childless.

Anti-Müllerian hormone levels in the spontaneous menstrual cycle do not show substantial fluctuation.

CONTEXT: Anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH), a quantitative marker for ovarian reserve, has been suggested to be independent of the classical endocrine fluctuations of the menstrual cycle. OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to determine whether AMH levels are constant throughout the menstrual cycle, compared with those of FSH, LH, and estradiol. DESIGN/PATIENTS: Frequent blood sampling was performed in 44 fertile, regularly cycling, female volunteers during one full menstrual cycle. SETTING: The study was conducted at a university hospital. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: AMH, FSH, LH, and estradiol measurements were allocated to one of seven cycle phases, and a multilevel analysis was performed. Consistent fluctuation patterns were tested by fitting sine patterns to the data. Finally, the frequency in which randomly selected individual samples would remain in one of five preset level categories (quintiles) for each of the variables was studied. RESULTS: A sine pattern fitted to the AMH data was not statistically significant (P = 0.40). In contrast, sine patterns for FSH, LH, and estradiol were highly significant. Comparing the seven cycle phases, no significant differences could be observed between phase-specific AMH levels (P = 0.06). Repeated selection of AMH samples for each individual showed that in 71.5% of selections, AMH values remained in the same quintile, whereas in 27.9% values fell in an adjacent quintile. CONCLUSIONS: AMH levels measured through a full menstrual cycle did not show consistent fluctuation patterns in contrast to levels of FSH, LH, and estradiol. Furthermore, random fluctuations were small, indicating that AMH can be relied on as a cycle-independent marker for ovarian reserve.

[The influence of sexual function on the chance of pregnancy]. / De invloed van seksueel functioneren op de kans om zwanger te worden.

There is a complex association between sexual behaviour and (in)fertility. Sexual dysfunction can cause a delay in conception, but can also be the result of not conceiving. If conception is not achieved, sexual function may become disturbed and can deteriorate further as the result of the hospital fertility protocol and medical intervention. In terms of fertility, optimal sexual function is important because it increases the chance of conception. The greatest chance of conception is achieved through sexual intercourse on multiple occasions during the fertile period, particularly on days with good quality cervical mucus, with the right interval between ejaculations (not too long and not too short), adequate arousal of both partners and without the use of artificial lubricants. Time and attentiveness are particularly important in the patient-physician contact to be able to properly advise couples on these matters.

Predictors of chances to conceive in ovulatory patients during clomiphene citrate induction of ovulation in normogonadotropic oligoamenorrheic infertility.

The present prospective follow-up study was designed to identify whether clinical, endocrine, or ultrasound characteristics assessed by standardized initial screening of normogonadotropic oligo/amenorrheic infertile patients could predict conception in 160 women who reached ovulation after clomiphene citrate (CC) medication. Additional inclusion criteria were total motile sperm count of the partner above 1 million and a negative history for any tubal disease. Daily CC doses of 50 mg (increasing up to 150 mg in case of absent ovarian response) from cycle days 3-7 were used. First conception (defined as a positive urinary pregnancy test) was the end point for this study. A cumulative conception rate of 73% was reached within 9 CC-induced ovulatory cycles. Patients who did conceive presented more frequently with lower age (P < 0.0001) and amenorrhea (P < 0.05) upon initial screening. In a univariate analysis, patients with elevated initial serum LH concentrations (>7.0 IU/L) had a higher probability of conceiving (P < 0.01). In a multivariate analysis, age and cycle history (oligomenorrhea vs. amenorrhea) were identified as the only significant parameters for prediction of conception. These observations suggest that there is more to be gained from CC ovulation induction in younger women presenting with profound oligomenorrhea or amenorrhea. Screening characteristics involved in the prediction of ovulation after CC medication in normogonadotropic oligo/amenorrheic patients (body weight and hyperandrogenemia, as shown previously) are distinctly different from predictors of conception in ovulatory CC patients (age and the severity of cycle abnormality). This disparity suggests that the FSH threshold (magnitude of FSH required for stimulation of ongoing follicle growth and ovulation) and oocyte quality (chances for conception in ovulatory cycles) may be differentially regulated.

Predictors of patients remaining anovulatory during clomiphene citrate induction of ovulation in normogonadotropic oligoamenorrheic infertility.

The diagnostic criteria used to identify patients suffering from polycystic ovary syndrome remain controversial. The present prospective longitudinal follow-up study was designed to identify whether certain criteria assessed during standardized initial screening could predict the response to ovulation induction with clomiphene citrate (CC) in 201 patients presenting with oligomenorrhea or amenorrhea and infertility. Serum FSH levels were within the normal range (1-10 IU/L), and all patients underwent spontaneous or progestin-induced withdrawal bleeding. Initial CC doses were 50 mg daily for 5 days starting on cycle day 3. In the case of an absent response, doses were increased to 100 and 150 mg daily in subsequent cycles. First ovulation with CC was used as the end point. After a complete follow-up (in the case of a nonresponse, at least 3 treatment cycles with daily CC doses up to 150 mg), 156 patients (78%) ovulated. The free androgen index (FAI = testosterone/sex hormone-binding globulin ratio), body mass index (BMI), cycle history (oligomenorrhea vs. amenorrhea), serum androgen (testosterone and/or androstenedione) levels, and mean ovarian volume assessed by transvaginal sonography were all significantly different (P < 0.01) in responders from those in nonresponders. FAI was chosen to be the best predictor in univariate analysis. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve in a multivariate prediction model including FAI, BMI, cycle history, and mean ovarian volume was 0.82. Patients whose ovaries are less likely to respond to stimulation by FSH due to CC treatment can be predicted on the basis of initial screening characteristics, such as FAI, BMI, cycle history (oligomenorrhea or amenorrhea), and mean ovarian volume. These observations may add to ongoing discussion regarding etiological factors involved in ovarian dysfunction in these patients and classification of normogonadotropic anovulatory infertile women.

Survival of human ovarian follicles from fetal to adult life: apoptosis, apoptosis-related proteins, and transcription factor GATA-4.

The majority of oocytes present in fetal ovaries are depleted before birth, and only about 400 will ovulate during the normal fertile life span. Studies on animals have shown that apoptosis is the mechanism behind oocyte depletion and follicular atresia. In the present study, we investigated the extent and localization of apoptosis in human fetal (aged 13-40 weeks) and adult ovaries. Furthermore, the expression of apoptosis-regulating proteins, bcl-2 and bax, and the relationship of transcription factor GATA-4 were studied. Apoptosis was found in ovarian follicles throughout fetal and adult life. During fetal development, apoptosis was localized mainly to primary oocytes and was highest between weeks 14-28, decreasing thereafter toward term. Expression of bcl-2 was observed only in the youngest fetal ovaries (weeks 13-14), and bax was present in the ovaries throughout the entire fetal period. In adult ovaries, apoptosis was detected in granulosa cells of secondary and antral follicles, and Bcl-2 and bax were expressed from primary follicles onwards. During fetal ovarian development, GATA-4 messenger RNA and protein were localized to the granulosa cells, with expression being highest in the youngest ovaries and decreasing somewhat toward term. The expression pattern of GATA-4 suggests that it may be involved in the mechanisms protecting granulosa cells from apoptosis from fetal to adult life. The results indicate that depletion of ovarian follicles in the human fetus occurs through intrinsic mechanisms of apoptosis in oocytes, and later in adult life the survival of growing follicles may be primarily determined by granulosa cell apoptosis.

Kinetics of meiosis in azoospermic males: a joint histological and cytological approach.

We have developed a protocol for the identification of aberrant chromosome behavior during human male meiosis up to metaphase of the secondary spermatocyte. Histological evaluation by the Johnsen score of a testicular biopsy was combined with immunofluorescence of first meiotic prophase spermatocytes, using antibodies against synaptonemal complex protein 3 (SYCP3) and the product of the ataxia telangiectasia and rad3-related gene (ATR). This combination enables accurate meiotic prophase substaging and the identification of pachytene spermatocytes with asynapsis. Furthermore, we also investigated the competence of late pachytene primary spermatocytes to complete the first meiotic division up to metaphase and of secondary spermatocytes to transform into metaphase by an in vitro challenge with okadaic acid (OA). We tested this protocol on five males with normal Johnsen scores that presented with obstructive azoospermia, five males with low Johnsen scores and non-obstructive azoospermia and six vasectomized control males of proven fertility and normal Johnsen scores. In all azoospermics, the profiling of meiotic prophase stages by immunofluorescence increases the resolving power of the Johnsen score. In both obstructive and non-obstructive azoospermic patients, relatively more leptotene meiotic prophase stages were counted compared to the controls. In non-obstructive azoospermics, a marked heterogeneity in spermatogenesis was found, after combining the results of all three approaches, pointing at functional mosaicism of the germinal epithelium. Asynaptic pachytene spermatocytes were rarely encountered. Also, when first meiotic metaphase could be induced by OA, chiasma counts were normal. In none of the non-obstructive azoospermic males did the pattern of spermatogenesis resemble that of knock-out mouse azoospermics. We conclude that this combined histological and cytological approach enables a detailed phenotypic classification of infertile males, at a level comparable to that applied for male-sterile knock-out mice with a meiotic defect. This may facilitate the identification of candidate genes for human male infertility.

Developmental and endocrine aspects of normal ovarian aging.

Supplies of follicles are established during early fetal life and decrease exponentially thereafter by a process called atresia. Subfertility only starts at a mean age of about 30-31 years, when the remaining follicle reserve has become a fraction of its original number. Thereafter, a further decrease in both oocyte quantity and quality dictates the subsequent reproductive events including decrease of fertility, increased abortion rate, the end of fertility, the beginning of cycle irregularity and, when almost no follicles are left, the occurrence of menopause. The same remarkable variation of age at menopause almost certainly is also present for the preceding reproductive events. When quantity and quality of antral follicles drop below a critical threshold, there is a subsequent drop in inhibine B resulting in the selective FSH rise at a mean age of 37-38 years. This FSH rise explains the accelerated follicle depletion, the increased proportion of growing follicles reaching the selectable stage, the shortening of the follicular phase and the increased incidence of dizygotic twinning. The concurring decrease of oocyte quality is in line with the increased incidence of abortions and chromosomal aberrations after age 35.

Retrograde ejaculation: successful treatment with artificial insemination.

Retrograde ejaculation is characterized by aspermia or oligospermia and results from an incompetent bladder neck, often due to a dysfunction of the internal sphincter. In almost 3 years, eight couples who suffered from infertility due to retrograde ejaculation were treated with inseminations with spermatozoa gained from the urine. Ovulation was predicted on the basis of blood LH levels. The urine-semen sample was collected in 100 mL of Hepes medium and 5 mL 1% human albumin (pH 7.4). After centrifuging, the remaining sperm pellet was dispersed on a Percoll gradient. After centrifuging and resuspending, followed by two washing procedures with Ham's F-10 and human albumin 1%, the remaining sample was used for intrauterine insemination. Twelve pregnancies were thus achieved; two women became pregnant twice and one three times. The pregnancy rate per cycle was 44.4%. In seven couples, pregnancy was achieved within three cycles. Four pregnancies ended in spontaneous abortion and five ended in the birth of a healthy child; three pregnancies were continuing at the time of writing. Retrograde ejaculation can be treated successfully with inseminations using spermatozoa obtained from urine. It seems important to collect the urine-semen sample in a buffered medium and to time the insemination on the basis of the LH surge.

Inspection of the ovaries and steroids in serum and peritoneal fluid at various time intervals after ovulation in fertile women: implications for the luteinized unruptured follicle syndrome.

In 20 fertile women one menstrual cycle was monitored by ovarian ultrasonography, laparoscopy, and estimation of 17 beta-estradiol (E2) and progesterone levels in serum and peritoneal fluid (PF). Three groups were studied, performing the laparoscopy within 1, 3, and 5 days after ovulation. The results indicate that the opening in the corpus luteum remains at least during the first 1.5 postovulatory days. The process of the closure starts thereafter and has been accomplished 4 to 5 days after ovulation. Progesterone and E2 levels in PF follow a similar pattern, showing high levels in the first, decreasing levels in the second, and low levels in the last laparoscopy groups. Therefore the significance of inspection of the ovaries and hormone level estimation in PF depend on the timing of the laparoscopy in relation to the moment of ovulation, especially in the first 5 postovulatory days.

Intrauterine insemination of washed husband's spermatozoa: a controlled study.

We performed intrauterine insemination with washed husband's spermatozoa in 27 couples with clear evidence of impaired sperm mucus interaction due to cervical hostility or immunologic male subfertility and in 30 couples with subnormal semen, but optimal cervical mucus qualities. In each couple insemination cycles were alternated with cycles during which normal intercourse took place. Both types of cycles were monitored for LH. When a clear rise of LH levels could be detected, either IUI was scheduled or intercourse advised for the following day. In the male subfertility group no difference between the pregnancy rates of insemination and intercourse cycles was present. In the group with impairment of sperm-mucus interaction, the pregnancy rate of the insemination cycles was 16%, whereas no pregnancies occurred during intercourse cycles.

Moderate drinking: no impact on female fecundity.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the effect of moderate alcohol intake on probability of conception. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Normal healthy women enrolled in an artificial donor insemination program. PATIENTS: Women starting artificial donor insemination for the very first time were selected. INTERVENTIONS: Alcohol exposure was measured through a self-administered questionnaire at intake of study. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: A first positive pregnancy test as indicative for conception. RESULTS: Women with moderate alcohol intake had a slightly higher, though not significant, probability of conception compared with nondrinkers (Hazard Ratio 1.20; 95% confidence interval 0.90 to 1.60). CONCLUSION: Moderate alcohol intake has no negative impact on female fecundity.

Testis volumes, semen quality, and hormonal patterns in adolescents with and without a varicocele.

OBJECTIVE: To study the effects of varicocele on testicular function in adolescents. DESIGN: A prospective controlled study in 88 randomly selected adolescents. SETTING: All participants were referred to the fertility outpatient clinic of our University Hospital. PARTICIPANTS: All participants with a grade II varicocele (group 2) or a grade III varicocele (group 3) were selected at a district military medical council, whereas a similar group of healthy volunteers without a varicocele served as controls (group 3). INTERVENTIONS: Testis volumes were measured using an orchiometer. Semen analysis was performed according to standard procedures, and serum hormone levels were determined using a radioimmunoassay. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Testis volumes, semen quality, and hormonal parameters in adolescents with and without a varicocele were compared. RESULTS: In group 1 (n = 21), the mean left testis volume (24.5 mL; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 22.8 to 26.2) was significantly (P less than 0.05) different from group 2 (n = 15) (20.9 mL: 95% CI: 18.5 to 23.4) and group 3 (n = 52) (20.7 mL; 95% CI: 19.2 to 22.2) (P less than 0.01) adolescents. In adolescents with a pronounced varicocele-associated left testicular growth failure, the total sperm number was reduced. However, sperm concentration, motility, and morphology were not altered. Luteinizing hormone, follicle-stimulating hormone, testosterone, and prolactin levels were all within the normal ranges in the three groups. CONCLUSIONS: Left testicular growth failure in adolescents with a varicocele is only associated with a decrease in total sperm number.

Predicting the pregnancy outcome in patients treated for hydrosalpinx: a prospective study.

We analyzed the importance of five factors (the nature and extent of adhesions, the macroscopic aspect of the endosalpinx, the thickness of the tubal wall, and the diameter of the hydrosalpinx) for the prediction of subsequent conception in 108 patients treated for hydrosalpinx. Each factor was classified into a score immediately after operation. After follow-up study, each factor was correlated with the pregnancy outcome. The prognostic information of the four most promising factors was combined with Bayes' discriminant analysis. The results clearly indicate the presence of three prognostic classes: a good one (n = 27); an intermediate one (n = 44); and a poor one (n = 37) with a probability of intrauterine pregnancy of 77%, 21%, and 3%, respectively. Moreover, the results allow for a simple classification of each future patient into the appropriate prognostic group. In the present era of in vitro fertilization, this differentiation may have consequences for an optimal treatment of patients.