Acute Vasoreactivity Testing and Outcomes in Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension: A Call for Increased Testing.

BACKGROUND: Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) has a progressive, unremitting clinical course. Vasoreactivity testing (VdT) during right heart catheterisation (RHC) identifies a subgroup with excellent long-term response to calcium channel blockade (CCB). Reporting on these patients is limited. Established in 2011, the Pulmonary Hypertension Society of Australia and New Zealand (PHSANZ) registry offers the opportunity to assess the frequency of VdT during RHC, treatment and follow up of PAH patients. METHODS: Registry data from 3,972 PAH patients with index RHC revealed 1,194 VdT appropriate patients. Data was analysed in three groups: 1) VdT+CCB+: VdT positive, CCB treated; 2) VdT+CCB-: VdT positive, no CCB prescribed, 3) VdT-/noVdT: VdT negative, or VdT not tested. Data was reviewed for adherence to guidelines, clinical response (World Health Organization functional class [WHO FC], 6-minute-walk-distance [6MWD], RHC), and outcomes (survival or lung transplantation). RESULTS: Patients included had idiopathic (IPAH=1,087), heritable (HPAH=67) and drug or toxin-induced PAH (DPAH=40). A VdT was performed in 22% (268/1,194), with incomplete data in 26% (70/268); 28% (55/198) were VdT+. Analysis group allocation was: VdT+CCB+ (33/55), VdT+CCB- (22/55), VdT- (143)/noVdT (996). From patients with 1-year data VdT+CCB+ and VdT-/noVdT patients improved WHO FC, 6MWD and cardiac index (CI); VdT+CCB- data remained similar. Within the VdT+CCB+ group, 30% (10/33) were long-term CCB responders with a 100% 5-year survival; non-responders had a 61% survival at 5.4 years. Long-term responders were younger at diagnosis (40 yrs vs 54 yrs). CONCLUSION: Use of VdT testing and documentation is poor in this contemporary patient cohort. Nonetheless, survival in VdT+CCB+ patients from the PHSANZ registry is excellent, supporting guidelines promoting VdT testing. Strategies to promote the use of VdT are warranted.

A multicentre validation study of a smartphone application to screen hand arthritis.

BACKGROUND: Arthritis is a common condition, and the prompt and accurate assessment of hand arthritis in primary care is an area of unmet clinical need. We have previously developed and tested a screening tool combining machine-learning algorithms, to help primary care physicians assess patients presenting with arthritis affecting the hands. The aim of this study was to assess the validity of the screening tool among a number of different Rheumatologists. METHODS: Two hundred and forty-eight consecutive new patients presenting to 7 private Rheumatology practices across Australia were enrolled. Using a smartphone application, each patient had photographs taken of their hands, completed a brief 9-part questionnaire, and had a single examination result (wrist irritability) recorded. The Rheumatologist diagnosis was entered following a 45-minute consultation. Multiple machine learning models were applied to both the photographic and survey/examination results, to generate a screening outcome for the primary diagnoses of osteoarthritis, rheumatoid and psoriatic arthritis. RESULTS: The combined algorithms in the application performed well in identifying and discriminating between different forms of hand arthritis. The algorithms were able to predict rheumatoid arthritis with accuracy, precision, recall and specificity of 85.1, 80.0, 88.1 and 82.7% respectively. The corresponding results for psoriatic arthritis were 95.2, 76.9, 90.9 and 95.8%, and for osteoarthritis were 77.4, 78.3, 80.6 and 73.7%. The results were maintained when each contributor was excluded from the analysis. The median time to capture all data across the group was 2 minutes and 59 seconds. CONCLUSIONS: This multicentre study confirms the results of the pilot study, and indicates that the performance of the screening tool is maintained across a group of different Rheumatologists. The smartphone application can provide a screening result from a combination of machine-learning algorithms applied to hand images and patient symptom responses. This could be used to assist primary care physicians in the assessment of patients presenting with hand arthritis, and has the potential to improve the clinical assessment and management of such patients.

Pharmacological Treatment of Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension in Australia: Current Trends and Challenges.

BACKGROUND: Combination drug therapy for pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is the international standard of care for most patients, however in Australia there are barriers to drug access. This study evaluates current treatment of PAH patients in Australia and the consistency of therapy with international guidelines. METHODS: Cross-sectional analysis of patients with Group 1 PAH enrolled in the Pulmonary Hypertension Society of Australia and New Zealand Registry (PHSANZ) at 31 December 2017. Drug treatment was classified as monotherapy or combination therapy and adequacy of treatment was determined by risk status assessment using the Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term PAH Disease Management (REVEAL) 2.0 risk calculator. Predictors of monotherapy were assessed using a generalised linear model with Poisson distribution and logarithmic link function. RESULTS: 1,046 patients met the criteria for analysis. Treatment was classified as monotherapy in 536 (51%) and combination therapy in 510 (49%) cases. Based on REVEAL 2.0, 184 (34%) patients on monotherapy failed to meet low-risk criteria and should be considered inadequately treated. Independent predictors of monotherapy included age greater than 60 years (risk ratio [RR] 1.23, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.09-1.38; p=0.001), prevalent enrolment in the registry (RR 1.21 [95%CI 1.08-1.36]; p=0.001) and comorbid systemic hypertension (RR 1.17 [95%CI 1.03-1.32]; p=0.014), while idiopathic/heritable/drug-induced PAH subtype (RR 0.85 [95%CI 0.76-0.96]; p=0.006), functional class IV (RR 0.50 [95%CI 0.29-0.86]; p=0.012), increased right ventricular systolic pressure (RR 0.99 [95%CI 0.99-1.00]; p<0.001) and increased pulmonary vascular resistance (RR 0.96 [95%CI 0.95-0.98]; p<0.001) were less likely to be associated with monotherapy. CONCLUSIONS: Most Australian PAH patients are treated with monotherapy and a significant proportion remain at risk of poor outcomes. This is below the standard of care recommended by international guidelines and at risk patients should be escalated to combination therapy.

Survival of Idiopathic Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Patients in the Modern Era in Australia and New Zealand.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiology and treatment strategies continue to evolve in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). We sought to define the characteristics and survival of patients with idiopathic, heritable and drug-induced PAH in the current management era. METHODS: Consecutive cases of idiopathic, heritable and drug-induced PAH were prospectively enrolled into an Australian and New Zealand Registry. RESULTS: Between January 2012 and December 2016, a total of 220 incident cases were enrolled (mean age 57.2±18.7years, female 69.5%) and followed for a median duration of 26 months (IQR17-39). Co-morbidities were common such as obesity (34.1%), systemic hypertension (30.5%), coronary artery disease (16.4%) and diabetes mellitus (19.5%). Initial combination therapy was used in 54 patients (dual, n=50; triple, n=4). Estimated survival rates at 1-year, 2-years and 3-years were 95.6% (CI 92.8-98.5%), 87.3% (CI 82.5-92.4%) and 77.0% (CI 70.3-84.3%), respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that male sex and lower 6-minute distance at diagnosis independently predicted worse survival, whereas obesity was associated with improved survival. Co-morbidities other than obesity did not impact survival. Initial dual oral combination therapy was associated with a trend towards better survival compared with initial oral monotherapy (adjusted HR=0.27, CI 0.06-1.18, p=0.082) CONCLUSIONS: The epidemiology and survival of patients with idiopathic PAH in Australia and New Zealand are similar to contemporary registries reported in Europe and North America. Male sex and poorer exercise capacity are predictive of mortality whereas obesity appears to exert a protective effect. Despite current therapies, PAH remains a life-threatening disease associated with significant early mortality.

The role of asymmetric dimethylarginine alone and in combination with N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide as a screening biomarker for systemic sclerosis-related pulmonary arterial hypertension: a case control study.

OBJECTIVES: Asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA) is a novel biomarker of endothelial cell dysfunction. In this proof of concept study, we sought to evaluate the role of ADMA as a screening biomarker for incident systemic sclerosis-related pulmonary arterial hypertension (SSc-PAH). METHODS: ADMA levels were measured using high performance liquid chromatography in 15 consecutive treatment-naive patients with newly-diagnosed SSc-PAH and compared with 30 SSc-controls without PAH. Logistic regression models were used to evaluate the independent association of ADMA with PAH. The optimal cut-point of ADMA for SSc-PAH screening was determined. NT-proBNP levels were previously measured in the same patients and the optimal cut-point of NT-proBNP of ≥210ng/mL was coupled with the optimal cut-point of ADMA to create a screening model that combined the two biomarkers. RESULTS: The PAH group had significantly higher mean ADMA levels than the control group (0.76±0.14 µM versus 0.59±0.07 µM; p<0.0001). ADMA levels remained significantly associated with PAH after the adjustment for specific disease characteristics, cardiovascular risk factors and other SSc-related vascular complications (all p<0.01). An ADMA level ≥0.7 µM had a sensitivity of 86.7%, specificity of 90.0% and AUC of 0.86 for diagnosing PAH. A screening model that combined an NT-proBNP ≥210ng/mL and/ or ADMA ≥0.7 ng/mL resulted in a sensitivity of 100% and specificity of 90% for the detection of SSc-PAH. CONCLUSIONS: In this small study, use of ADMA in combination with NT-proBNP produced excellent sensitivity and specificity for the non-invasive identification of SSc-PAH. The role of ADMA as a screening biomarker for SSc-PAH merits further evaluation.

Quantifying change in pulmonary function as a prognostic marker in systemic sclerosis-related interstitial lung disease.

OBJECTIVES: Clinically meaningful change in systemic sclerosis (SSc) related interstitial lung (SSc-ILD) disease is unknown. The aim of this study was to quantify change in pulmonary function as a predictor of outcome in SSc-ILD. METHODS: All patients had SSc-ILD defined by HRCT chest. All PFTs during follow-up, including FVC (L), DLCO (ml/min/mmHg) and KCO (DLCO/alveolar volume ratio; DLCO/VA) (ml/min/mmHg/L) were retrieved. The rate of change over the first four years, and percentage change in the first year of follow-up were used in ROC curve analysis to determine the best cut-off points to predict adverse outcome (home oxygen, lung transplantation, or death). RESULTS: Among 264 patients, there were 49 events (38 deaths, 10 supplemental oxygen, one lung transplant) over a mean (±SD) follow-up of 3.0 (±1.7) years. The rates of decline over time and percentage change over one year in each of FVC, DLCO and KCO were predictive of adverse outcome. Stable PFTs over four years gave the optimal negative predictive values (NPVs) of 88-96%. The best sensitivity-specificity trade-off was a decline in FVC of 10% and in DLCO and KCO of 15% with NPVs of 92-93%. CONCLUSIONS: The course that SSc-ILD takes is evident within the first 1-4 years of follow up. Patients who have no decline in PFTs over 4 years have better outcomes. A decline within one year in DLCO or KCO of 15% or more is a poor prognostic factor, and identifies patients who should be monitored more closely and considered for therapy.

Extent of disease on high-resolution computed tomography lung is a predictor of decline and mortality in systemic sclerosis-related interstitial lung disease.

OBJECTIVES: In a multi-centre study, we sought to determine whether extent of disease on high-resolution CT (HRCT) lung, reported using a simple grading system, is predictive of decline and mortality in SSc-related interstitial lung disease (SSc-ILD), independently of pulmonary function tests (PFTs) and other prognostic variables. METHODS: SSc patients with a baseline HRCT performed at the time of ILD diagnosis were identified. All HRCTs and PFTs performed during follow-up were retrieved. Demographic and disease-related data were prospectively collected. HRCTs were graded according to the percentage of lung disease: >20%: extensive; <20%: limited; unclear: indeterminate. Indeterminate HRCTs were converted to limited or extensive using a forced vital capacity threshold of 70%. The composite outcome variable was deterioration (need for home oxygen or lung transplantation), or death. RESULTS: Among 172 patients followed for mean (s.d.) of 3.5 (2.9) years, there were 30 outcome events. In Weibull multivariable hazards regression modelling, baseline HRCT grade was independently predictive of outcome, with an adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 3.0, 95% CI 1.2, 7.5 and P = 0.02. In time-varying covariate models (based on 1309 serial PFTs and 353 serial HRCTs in 172 patients), serial diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide by alveolar volume ratio (ml/min/mmHg/l) (aHR = 0.4; 95% CI 0.3, 0.7; P = 0.001) and forced vital capacity (dl) (aHR = 0.9; 95% CI 0.8, 0.97; P = 0.008), were also strongly predictive of outcome. CONCLUSION: Extensive disease (>20%) on HRCT at baseline, reported using a semi-quantitative grading system, is associated with a three-fold increased risk of deterioration or death in SSc-ILD, compared with limited disease. Serial PFTs are informative in follow-up of patients.

Scope and Consistency of Outcomes Reported in Trials of Patients With Systemic Sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: The core outcome set for trials in systemic sclerosis (SSc) was developed in 2008 and comprises 11 domains and 31 measures, leading to the development of the Combined Response Index in Diffuse Cutaneous Systemic Sclerosis (CRISS). We aimed to assess the scope and consistency of outcomes reported in trials of SSc and the uptake of this core set and the CRISS. METHODS: Medline, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Embase, and ClinicalTrials.gov were searched to identify randomized trials published from January 1, 2000 to April 29, 2018 in adults with limited or diffuse SSc. Outcomes and measures were recorded for each trial, classified into domains and the frequency of outcomes before after publication of the publication of the core set calculated. RESULTS: From 152 trials, 4,193 outcomes were classified into 84 domains. The 3 most common domains were health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and function (59%, 130 measures), skin (47%, 59 measures), and pulmonary (45%, 168 measures). After the publication of the core outcome set, no trial reported the complete core set with adherence to each of the 11 domains, ranging from 6.1% to 54.4% and adherence to each of the 31 measures ranging from 0% to 48.1%. The 5 measures required for the CRISS were reported completely in 11% of trials. CONCLUSION: Despite recognition that uniform acquisition and reporting of outcomes would enable a better evaluation of proposed SSc therapeutics, the outcome domains and measures reported in randomized trials in SSc remain very inconsistent, with little impact of the core outcome set.

Retrospective Validation of the REVEAL 2.0 Risk Score With the Australian and New Zealand Pulmonary Hypertension Registry Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) prognosis has improved with targeted therapies; however, the long-term outlook remains poor. Objective multiparametric risk assessment is recommended to identify patients at risk of early morbidity and mortality, and for optimization of treatment. The US Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term PAH Disease Management (REVEAL) 2.0 risk score is a new model proposed for the follow-up of patients with PAH but has not been externally validated. METHODS: The REVEAL 2.0 risk score was applied to a mixed prevalent and incident cohort of patients with PAH (n = 1,011) from the Pulmonary Hypertension Society of Australia and New Zealand (PHSANZ) Registry. Kaplan-Meier survival was estimated for each REVEAL 2.0 risk score strata and for a simplified three-category (low, intermediate, and high risk) model. Sensitivity analysis was performed on an incident-only cohort. RESULTS: The REVEAL 2.0 model effectively discriminated risk in the large external PHSANZ Registry cohort, with a C statistic of 0.74 (both for full eight-tier and three-category models). When applied to incident cases only, the C statistic was 0.73. The three-category REVEAL 2.0 model demonstrated robust separation of 12- and 60-month survival estimates (all risk category comparisons P < .001). Although the full eight-tier REVEAL 2.0 model separated patients at low, intermediate, and high risk, survival estimates overlapped within some of the intermediate- and high-risk strata. CONCLUSIONS: The REVEAL 2.0 risk score was validated in a large external cohort from the PHSANZ Registry. The REVEAL 2.0 model can be applied for risk assessment of patients with PAH at follow-up. The simplified three-category model may be preferred for clinical use and for future comparison with other prognostic models.

Increased serum levels of adhesion molecules ICAM-1 and VCAM-1 in systemic sclerosis are not specific for pulmonary manifestations.

Studies suggest elevated serum intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (ICAM-1) and vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 (VCAM-1) levels may be markers of pulmonary arterial hypertension in systemic sclerosis (SSc-PAH). We sought to evaluate whether ICAM-1 and VCAM-1 levels are useful screening biomarkers for incident SSc-PAH. In this cross-sectional study, four groups were selected from the Australian Scleroderma Cohort Study: group 1 (n = 15) had definite PAH; group 2 (n = 19) had interstitial lung disease (ILD); group 3 (n = 30) were SSc-controls; and group 4 (n = 34) were healthy controls. Serum ICAM-1 and VCAM-1 levels were measured using the Millipore Milliplex MAP Human 2-Plex Panel. There were no differences in ICAM-1 levels in the PAH versus ILD group (263.0 ± 85.4 vs 380.4 ± 168.3 ng/mL, p = 0.136), SSc-controls (263.0 ± 85.4 vs 253.1 ± 98.0 ng/mL, p = 1.00), or healthy controls (263.0 ± 85.4 vs 201.8 ± 57.2 ng/mL, p = 0.093). Similarly, there were no differences in VCAM-1 level in PAH versus ILD groups (1476.2 ± 434.9 vs 1424.8 ± 527.6 ng/mL, p = 1.00) and SSc-controls (1476.2 ± 434.9 vs 1409.5 ± 341.1 ng/mL, p = 1.00). SSc subjects had significantly higher levels of ICAM-1 (297.4 ± 134.0 vs 201.8 ± 57.2 ng/mL, p < 0.0001) and VCAM-1 compared to healthy controls (1432.7 ± 427.4 vs 1125.6 ± 273.4 ng/mL, p < 0.0001). Neither ICAM-1 nor VCAM-1 is a specific screening biomarker of SSc-PAH. Instead, increased levels of these adhesion molecules in SSc, irrespective of pulmonary complications, suggest that they may play a role in SSc pathogenesis.

Safe and effective exercise training for patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension: putting current evidence into clinical practice.

INTRODUCTION: While there have been significant advances in the medical treatment of pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), life expectancy, and quality of life remain reduced in this disease. Strenuous exercise may be hazardous for PAH patients; however, several relatively small trials have confirmed that exercise training programs can be used safely and effectively as adjunctive treatment for selected patients. The use of exercise training is now recommended in consensus international PAH treatment algorithms; however, there is no published guideline detailing how this intervention should be carried out. Areas covered: This review describes the evidence available and evaluates its applicability to 'real life' clinical practice. The limitations of current evidence are acknowledged, and we discuss how the existing data can be applied to management of PAH patients in Australia, New Zealand, and countries with similar healthcare systems. Recommendations for PAH exercise training are proposed including patient selection, program structure and duration, training modalities, training intensity, supervision, monitoring, safety precautions, and outcome assessments. Expert commentary: It is recognized that knowledge gaps remain and further research is required into physiological mechanisms associated with improved exercise capacity, optimal outpatient exercise regimen, durability of benefit, and whether there is any disease-modifying effect or impact on long-term prognosis.

"It's Not Me, It's Not Really Me." Insights From Patients on Living With Systemic Sclerosis: An Interview Study.

OBJECTIVE: Patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc) experience severe physical limitations and psychological morbidity, but their lived experience remains underrepresented and is reflected in the scarcity of evidence-based patient-centered interventions. We aimed to describe patients' perspectives of SSc to inform strategies to improve their care. METHODS: Face-to-face semistructured interviews were conducted with 30 adult patients with limited cutaneous or diffuse cutaneous SSc in Australia. Transcripts were thematically analyzed using HyperRESEARCH software. RESULTS: Six themes were identified: bodily malfunction (restrictive pain, debilitating physical changes, pervasive exhaustion), deprivation of social function (loss of work and career, social isolation, threat to traditional roles, loss of intimacy), disintegration of identity (stigmatizing physical changes, disassociated self-image, extinguished hopes, alone and powerless, invisibility of illness), insecurity of care (unrecognized disease, ambiguity around diagnosis and cause, information insufficiency, resigning to treatment limitations, seeking reassurance, fear of progression), avoiding the sick role (evading thoughts of sickness, protecting family, favorable comparison), and perseverance and hope (positive stoicism, optimism about treatment and monitoring, taking control of own health, pursuing alternative treatments, transcending illness through support). CONCLUSION: SSc inflicts major bodily and social restrictions that crush patients' identity and self-image. Uncertainties about the cause, diagnosis, and prognosis can undermine confidence in care, leading to anxiety and therapeutic nihilism. Access to psychosocial care to support the patients' role and functioning capacity, as well as communication and education that explicitly address their concerns regarding management may potentially improve treatment satisfaction, self-efficacy, adherence, and outcomes in patients with SSc.

Connective tissue disease-related pulmonary arterial hypertension.

Over the past two decades, there have been several advances in the assessment and management of connective tissue disease-related pulmonary arterial hypertension (CTD-PAH) that improved outcomes of the treatment of this lethal disease, and this will be the focus of this study. Systemic sclerosis is the leading cause of CTD-PAH, followed by systemic lupus erythematosus, mixed connective tissue disease, idiopathic inflammatory myositis, rheumatoid arthritis, and Sjogren's syndrome. Clinical registries have been invaluable in informing about the burden of disease, risk and prognostic factors, and temporal trends with respect to treatment and outcome in CTD-PAH. The major advances have centered on improved disease classification and diagnostic criteria, screening and early diagnosis, the emergence of evidence-based therapies including combination goal-orientated treatment strategies, and the establishment of centers with expertise in PAH.

Patients' Perspectives and Experiences Living with Systemic Sclerosis: A Systematic Review and Thematic Synthesis of Qualitative Studies.

OBJECTIVE: Systemic sclerosis (SSc) is a chronic, progressive autoimmune disease with major end-organ involvement. Much attention has been focused on the management of physical and clinical manifestations; however, the effect of the disease and treatment on the patient's identity, relationships, functioning, and mental well-being are less known. We aimed to describe the patients' perspectives and experiences of living with SSc. METHODS: Electronic databases were searched to October 2014. Thematic synthesis was used to analyze the findings. RESULTS: We included 26 studies involving 463 patients. Six key themes were identified: distressing appearance transformation (disturbing facial changes, stigmatizing sickness, unrecognizable self), palpable physical limitations (bodily restrictions, frustrating mind-body disconnect, pervasive fatigue, disabling pain), social impairment (breaking intimacy, struggling to fulfill family responsibilities, maintaining work, losing independence), navigating uncertainty (diagnostic ambiguity, medically fending for oneself, unpredictable course of illness), alone and misunderstood (fearful avoidance of fellow patients, invisible suffering), and gradual acceptance and relative optimism (adapting to change and accepting limitations, taking a positive spin, cautious hoping, empowering relationships, valuing medical support). CONCLUSION: SSc is a rare and unpredictable illness that undermines patients' sense of certainty and control and impairs their self-image, identity, and daily functioning. Patient-centered care that encompasses strategies to promote self-esteem, resilience, and self-efficacy may help to improve treatment satisfaction and health and quality of life outcomes for patients with SSc.

Multicentre randomised placebo-controlled trial of oral anticoagulation with apixaban in systemic sclerosis-related pulmonary arterial hypertension: the SPHInX study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Systemic sclerosis (SSc) is a severe and costly multiorgan autoimmune connective tissue disease characterised by vasculopathy and fibrosis. One of the major causes of SSc-related death is pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), which develops in 12-15% of patients with SSc and accounts for 30-40% of deaths. In situ thrombosis in the small calibre peripheral pulmonary vessels resulting from endothelial dysfunction and an imbalance of anticoagulant and prothrombotic mediators has been implicated in the complex pathophysiology of SSc-related PAH (SSc-PAH), with international clinical guidelines recommending the use of anticoagulants for some types of PAH, such as idiopathic PAH. However, anticoagulation has not become part of standard clinical care for patients with SSc-PAH as only observational evidence exists to support its use. Therefore, we present the rationale and methodology of a phase III randomised controlled trial (RCT) to evaluate the efficacy, safety and cost-effectiveness of anticoagulation in SSc-PAH. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This Australian multicentre RCT will compare 2.5 mg apixaban with placebo, in parallel treatment groups randomised in a 1:1 ratio, both administered twice daily for 3 years as adjunct therapy to stable oral PAH therapy. The composite primary outcome measure will be the time to death or clinical worsening of PAH. Secondary outcomes will include functional capacity, health-related quality of life measures and adverse events. A cost-effectiveness analysis of anticoagulation versus placebo will also be undertaken. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval for this RCT has been granted by the Human Research Ethics Committees of all participating centres. An independent data safety monitoring board will review safety and tolerability data for the duration of the trial. The findings of this RCT are to be published in open access journals. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ACTRN12614000418673, Pre-results.

A comparison of the predictive accuracy of three screening models for pulmonary arterial hypertension in systemic sclerosis.

INTRODUCTION: There is evidence that early screening for pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) in systemic sclerosis (SSc) improves outcomes. We compared the predictive accuracy of two recently published screening algorithms (DETECT 2013 and Australian Scleroderma Interest Group (ASIG) 2012) for SSc-associated PAH (SSc-PAH) with the commonly used European Society of Cardiology/European Respiratory Society (ESC/ERS 2009) guidelines. METHODS: We included 73 consecutive SSc patients with suspected PAH undergoing right heart catheterization (RHC). The three screening models were applied to each patient. For each model, contingency table analysis was used to determine sensitivity, specificity, and positive (PPV) and negative (NPV) predictive values for PAH. These properties were also evaluated in an 'alternate scenario analysis' in which the prevalence of PAH was set at 10%. RESULTS: RHC revealed PAH in 27 (36.9%) patients. DETECT and ASIG algorithms performed equally in predicting PAH with sensitivity and NPV of 100%. The ESC/ERS guidelines had sensitivity of 96.3% and NPV of only 91%, missing one case of PAH; these guidelines could not be applied to three patients who had absent tricuspid regurgitant (TR) jet. The ASIG algorithm had the highest specificity (54.5%). With PAH prevalence set at 10%, the NPV of the models was unchanged, but the PPV dropped to less than 20%. CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort, the DETECT and ASIG algorithms out-perform the ESC/ERS guidelines, detecting all patients with PAH. The ESC/ERS guidelines have limitations in the absence of a TR jet. Ultimately, the choice of SSc-PAH screening algorithm will also depend on cost and ease of application.