A rare variant in EZH2 is associated with prostate cancer risk.

Prostate cancer (PrCa) is highly heritable, and although rare variants contribute significantly to PrCa risk, few have been identified to date. Herein, whole-genome sequencing was performed in a large PrCa family featuring multiple affected relatives spanning several generations. A rare, predicted splice site EZH2 variant, rs78589034 (G > A), was identified as segregating with disease in all but two individuals in the family, one of whom was affected with lymphoma and bowel cancer and a female relative. This variant was significantly associated with disease risk in combined familial and sporadic PrCa datasets (n = 1551; odds ratio [OR] = 3.55, P = 1.20 × 10-5 ). Transcriptome analysis was performed on prostate tumour needle biopsies available for two rare variant carriers and two wild-type cases. Although no allele-dependent differences were detected in EZH2 transcripts, a distinct differential gene expression signature was observed when comparing prostate tissue from the rare variant carriers with the wild-type samples. The gene expression signature comprised known downstream targets of EZH2 and included the top-ranked genes, DUSP1, FOS, JUNB and EGR1, which were subsequently validated by qPCR. These data provide evidence that rs78589034 is associated with increased PrCa risk in Tasmanian men and further, that this variant may be associated with perturbed EZH2 function in prostate tissue. Disrupted EZH2 function is a driver of tumourigenesis in several cancers, including prostate, and is of significant interest as a therapeutic target.

Global conservation outcomes depend on marine protected areas with five key features.

In line with global targets agreed under the Convention on Biological Diversity, the number of marine protected areas (MPAs) is increasing rapidly, yet socio-economic benefits generated by MPAs remain difficult to predict and under debate. MPAs often fail to reach their full potential as a consequence of factors such as illegal harvesting, regulations that legally allow detrimental harvesting, or emigration of animals outside boundaries because of continuous habitat or inadequate size of reserve. Here we show that the conservation benefits of 87 MPAs investigated worldwide increase exponentially with the accumulation of five key features: no take, well enforced, old (>10 years), large (>100 km(2)), and isolated by deep water or sand. Using effective MPAs with four or five key features as an unfished standard, comparisons of underwater survey data from effective MPAs with predictions based on survey data from fished coasts indicate that total fish biomass has declined about two-thirds from historical baselines as a result of fishing. Effective MPAs also had twice as many large (>250 mm total length) fish species per transect, five times more large fish biomass, and fourteen times more shark biomass than fished areas. Most (59%) of the MPAs studied had only one or two key features and were not ecologically distinguishable from fished sites. Our results show that global conservation targets based on area alone will not optimize protection of marine biodiversity. More emphasis is needed on better MPA design, durable management and compliance to ensure that MPAs achieve their desired conservation value.

Integrating abundance and functional traits reveals new global hotspots of fish diversity.

Species richness has dominated our view of global biodiversity patterns for centuries. The dominance of this paradigm is reflected in the focus by ecologists and conservation managers on richness and associated occurrence-based measures for understanding drivers of broad-scale diversity patterns and as a biological basis for management. However, this is changing rapidly, as it is now recognized that not only the number of species but the species present, their phenotypes and the number of individuals of each species are critical in determining the nature and strength of the relationships between species diversity and a range of ecological functions (such as biomass production and nutrient cycling). Integrating these measures should provide a more relevant representation of global biodiversity patterns in terms of ecological functions than that provided by simple species counts. Here we provide comparisons of a traditional global biodiversity distribution measure based on richness with metrics that incorporate species abundances and functional traits. We use data from standardized quantitative surveys of 2,473 marine reef fish species at 1,844 sites, spanning 133 degrees of latitude from all ocean basins, to identify new diversity hotspots in some temperate regions and the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean. These relate to high diversity of functional traits amongst individuals in the community (calculated using Rao's Q), and differ from previously reported patterns in functional diversity and richness for terrestrial animals, which emphasize species-rich tropical regions only. There is a global trend for greater evenness in the number of individuals of each species, across the reef fish species observed at sites ('community evenness'), at higher latitudes. This contributes to the distribution of functional diversity hotspots and contrasts with well-known latitudinal gradients in richness. Our findings suggest that the contribution of species diversity to a range of ecosystem functions varies over large scales, and imply that in tropical regions, which have higher numbers of species, each species contributes proportionally less to community-level ecological processes on average than species in temperate regions. Metrics of ecological function usefully complement metrics of species diversity in conservation management, including when identifying planning priorities and when tracking changes to biodiversity values.

Distinct child-to-adult body mass index trajectories are associated with different levels of adult cardiometabolic risk.

Aims: The relationship between life-course body mass index (BMI) trajectories and adult risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) is poorly described. In a longitudinal cohort, we describe BMI trajectories from early childhood to adulthood and investigate their association with CVD risk factors [Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), high-risk lipid levels, hypertension, and high carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT)] in adulthood (34-49 years). Methods and results: Six discrete long-term BMI trajectories were identified using latent class growth mixture modelling among 2631 Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study participants (6-49 years): stable normal (55.2%), resolving (1.6%), progressively overweight (33.4%), progressively obese (4.2%), rapidly overweight/obese (4.3%), and persistent increasing overweight/obese (1.2%). Trajectories of worsening or persisting obesity were generally associated with increased risk of CVD outcomes in adulthood (24-49 years) [all risk ratios (RRs) >15, P < 0.05 compared with the stable normal group]. Although residual risk for adult T2DM could not be confirmed [RR = 2.6, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.14-8.23], participants who resolved their elevated child BMI had similar risk for dyslipidaemia and hypertension as those never obese or overweight (all RRs close to 1). However, they had significantly higher risk for increased cIMT (RR = 3.37, 95% CI = 1.80-6.39). Conclusion: The long-term BMI trajectories that reach or persist at high levels associate with CVD risk factors in adulthood. Stabilizing BMI in obese adults and resolving elevated child BMI by adulthood might limit and reduce adverse cardiometabolic profiles. However, efforts to prevent child obesity might be most effective to reduce the risk for adult atherosclerosis.

Bayesian hierarchical piecewise regression models: a tool to detect trajectory divergence between groups in long-term observational studies.

BACKGROUND: Bayesian hierarchical piecewise regression (BHPR) modeling has not been previously formulated to detect and characterise the mechanism of trajectory divergence between groups of participants that have longitudinal responses with distinct developmental phases. These models are useful when participants in a prospective cohort study are grouped according to a distal dichotomous health outcome. Indeed, a refined understanding of how deleterious risk factor profiles develop across the life-course may help inform early-life interventions. Previous techniques to determine between-group differences in risk factors at each age may result in biased estimate of the age at divergence. METHODS: We demonstrate the use of Bayesian hierarchical piecewise regression (BHPR) to generate a point estimate and credible interval for the age at which trajectories diverge between groups for continuous outcome measures that exhibit non-linear within-person response profiles over time. We illustrate our approach by modeling the divergence in childhood-to-adulthood body mass index (BMI) trajectories between two groups of adults with/without type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study (YFS). RESULTS: Using the proposed BHPR approach, we estimated the BMI profiles of participants with T2DM diverged from healthy participants at age 16 years for males (95% credible interval (CI):13.5-18 years) and 21 years for females (95% CI: 19.5-23 years). These data suggest that a critical window for weight management intervention in preventing T2DM might exist before the age when BMI growth rate is naturally expected to decrease. Simulation showed that when using pairwise comparison of least-square means from categorical mixed models, smaller sample sizes tended to conclude a later age of divergence. In contrast, the point estimate of the divergence time is not biased by sample size when using the proposed BHPR method. CONCLUSIONS: BHPR is a powerful analytic tool to model long-term non-linear longitudinal outcomes, enabling the identification of the age at which risk factor trajectories diverge between groups of participants. The method is suitable for the analysis of unbalanced longitudinal data, with only a limited number of repeated measures per participants and where the time-related outcome is typically marked by transitional changes or by distinct phases of change over time.

A cross-continental comparison of plant and beetle responses to retention of forest patches during timber harvest.

Timber harvest can adversely affect forest biota. Recent research and application suggest that retention of mature forest elements (retention forestry), including unharvested patches (or aggregates) within larger harvested units, can benefit biodiversity compared to clearcutting. However, it is unclear whether these benefits can be generalized among the diverse taxa and biomes in which retention forestry is practiced. Lack of comparability in methods for sampling and analyzing responses to timber harvest and edge creation presents a challenge to synthesis. We used a consistent methodology (similarly spaced plots or traps along transects) to investigate responses of vascular plants and ground-active beetles to aggregated retention at replicate sites in each of four temperate and boreal forest types on three continents: Douglas-fir forests in Washington, USA; aspen forests in Minnesota, USA; spruce forests in Sweden; and wet eucalypt forests in Tasmania, Australia. We assessed (1) differences in local (plot-scale) species richness and composition between mature (intact) and regenerating (previously harvested) forest; (2) the lifeboating function of aggregates (capacity to retain species of unharvested forest); and whether intact forests and aggregates (3) are susceptible to edge effects and (4) influence the adjacent regenerating forest. Intact and harvested forests differed in composition but not richness of plants and beetles. The magnitude of this difference was generally similar among regions, but there was considerable heterogeneity of composition within and among replicate sites. Aggregates within harvest units were effective at lifeboating for both plant and beetle communities. Edge effects were uncommon even within the aggregates. In contrast, effects of forest influence on adjacent harvested areas were common and as strong for aggregates as for larger blocks of intact forest. Our results provide strong support for the widespread application of aggregated retention in boreal and temperate forests. The consistency of pattern in four very different regions of the world suggests that, for forest plants and beetles, responses to aggregated retention are likely to apply more widely. Our results suggest that through strategic placement of aggregates, it is possible to maintain the natural heterogeneity and biodiversity of mature forests managed for multiple objectives.

Regulation of the ITGA2 gene by epigenetic mechanisms in prostate cancer.

BACKGROUND: Integrin alpha2 beta1 (α2 ß1 ) plays an integral role in tumour cell invasion, metastasis and angiogenesis, and altered expression of the receptor has been linked to tumour prognosis in several solid tumours. However, the relationship is complex, with both increased and decreased expression associated with different stages of tumour metastases in several tumour types. The ITGA2 gene, which codes for the α2 subunit, was examined to investigate whether a large CpG island associated with its promoter region is involved in the differential expression of ITGA2 observed in prostate cancer. METHODS: Bisulphite sequencing of the ITGA2 promoter was used to assess methylation in formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) prostate tumour specimens and prostate cancer cell lines, PC3, 22Rv1 and LNCaP. Changes in ITGA2 mRNA expression were measured using quantitative PCR. ITGA2 functionality was interrogated using cell migration scratch assays and siRNA knockdown experiments. RESULTS: Bisulphite sequencing revealed strikingly decreased methylation at key CpG sites within the promoter of tumour samples, when compared with normal prostate tissue. Altered methylation of this CpG island is also associated with differences in expression in the non-invasive LNCaP, and the highly metastatic PC3 and 22Rv1 prostate cancer cell lines. Further bisulphite sequencing confirmed that selected CpGs were highly methylated in LNCaP cells, whilst only low levels of methylation were observed in PC3 and 22Rv1 cells, correlating with ITGA2 transcript levels. Examination of the increased expression of ITGA2 was shown to influence migratory potential via scratch assay in PC3, 22Rv1 and LNCaP cells, and was confirmed by siRNA knockdown experiments. CONCLUSIONS: Taken together, our data supports the assertion that epigenetic modification of the ITGA2 promoter is a mechanism by which ITGA2 expression is regulated.

Identifying the interacting roles of stressors in driving the global loss of canopy-forming to mat-forming algae in marine ecosystems.

Identifying the type and strength of interactions between local anthropogenic and other stressors can help to set achievable management targets for degraded marine ecosystems and support their resilience by identifying local actions. We undertook a meta-analysis, using data from 118 studies to test the hypothesis that ongoing global declines in the dominant habitat along temperate rocky coastlines, forests of canopy-forming algae and/or their replacement by mat-forming algae are driven by the nonadditive interactions between local anthropogenic stressors that can be addressed through management actions (fishing, heavy metal pollution, nutrient enrichment and high sediment loads) and other stressors (presence of competitors or grazers, removal of canopy algae, limiting or excessive light, low or high salinity, increasing temperature, high wave exposure and high UV or CO2 ), not as easily amenable to management actions. In general, the cumulative effects of local anthropogenic and other stressors had negative effects on the growth and survival of canopy-forming algae. Conversely, the growth or survival of mat-forming algae was either unaffected or significantly enhanced by the same pairs of stressors. Contrary to our predictions, the majority of interactions between stressors were additive. There were however synergistic interactions between nutrient enrichment and heavy metals, the presence of competitors, low light and increasing temperature, leading to amplified negative effects on canopy-forming algae. There were also synergistic interactions between nutrient enrichment and increasing CO2 and temperature leading to amplified positive effects on mat-forming algae. Our review of the current literature shows that management of nutrient levels, rather than fishing, heavy metal pollution or high sediment loads, would provide the greatest opportunity for preventing the shift from canopy to mat-forming algae, particularly in enclosed bays or estuaries because of the higher prevalence of synergistic interactions between nutrient enrichment with other local and global stressors, and as such it should be prioritized.

Runs of homozygosity and a cluster of vulvar cancer in young Australian Aboriginal women.

OBJECTIVE: A cluster of vulvar cancer exists in young Aboriginal women living in remote communities in Arnhem Land, Australia. A genetic case-control study was undertaken involving 30 cases of invasive vulvar cancer and its precursor lesion, high-grade vulvar intraepithelial neoplasia (VIN), and 61 controls, matched for age and community of residence. It was hypothesized that this small, isolated population may exhibit increased autozygosity, implicating recessive effects as a possible mechanism for increased susceptibility to vulvar cancer. METHODS: Genotyping data from saliva samples were used to identify runs of homozygosity (ROH) in order to calculate estimates of genome-wide homozygosity. RESULTS: No evidence of an effect of genome-wide homozygosity on vulvar cancer and VIN in East Arnhem women was found, nor was any individual ROH found to be significantly associated with case status. This study found further evidence supporting an association between previous diagnosis of CIN and diagnosis of vulvar cancer or VIN, but found no association with any other medical history variable. CONCLUSIONS: These findings do not eliminate the possibility of genetic risk factors being involved in this cancer cluster, but rather suggest that alternative analytical strategies and genetic models should be explored.

Congruence in demersal fish, macroinvertebrate, and macroalgal community turnover on shallow temperate reefs.

To support coastal planning through improved understanding of patterns of biotic and abiotic surrogacy at broad scales, we used gradient forest modeling (GFM) to analyze and predict spatial patterns of compositional turnover of demersal fishes, macroinvertebrates, and macroalgae on shallow, temperate Australian reefs. Predictive models were first developed using environmental surrogates with estimates of prediction uncertainty, and then the efficacy of the three assemblages as biosurrogates for each other was assessed. Data from underwater visual surveys of subtidal rocky reefs were collected from the southeastern coastline of continental Australia (including South Australia and Victoria) and the northern coastline of Tasmania. These data were combined with 0.01 degree-resolution gridded environmental variables to develop statistical models of compositional turnover (beta diversity) using GFM. GFM extends the machine learning, ensemble tree-based method of random forests (RF), to allow the simultaneous modeling of multiple taxa. The models were used to generate predictions of compositional turnover for each of the three assemblages within unsurveyed areas across the 6600 km of coastline in the region of interest. The most important predictor for all three assemblages was variability in sea surface temperature (measured as standard deviation from measures taken interannually). Spatial predictions of compositional turnover within unsurveyed areas across the region of interest were remarkably congruent across the three taxa. However, the greatest uncertainty in these predictions varied in location among the different assemblages. Pairwise congruency comparisons of observed and predicted turnover among the three assemblages showed that invertebrate and macroalgal biodiversity were most similar, followed by fishes and macroalgae, and lastly fishes and invertebrate biodiversity, suggesting that of the three assemblages, macroalgae would make the best biosurrogate for both invertebrate and fish compositional turnover.

Anticipation in familial hematologic malignancies.

We describe a collection of 11 families with ≥ 2 generations of family members whose condition has been diagnosed as a hematologic malignancy. In 9 of these families there was a significant decrease in age at diagnosis in each subsequent generation (anticipation). The mean age at diagnosis in the first generation was 67.8 years, 57.1 years in the second, and 41.8 years in the third (P < .0002). This was confirmed in both direct parent-offspring pairs with a mean reduction of 19 years in the age at diagnosis (P = .0087) and when the analysis was repeated only including cases of mature B-cell neoplasm (P = .0007). We believe that these families provide further insight into the nature of the underlying genetic mechanism of predisposition in these families.

Evidence for a common genetic aetiology in high-risk families with multiple haematological malignancy subtypes.

A family history of a haematological malignancy (HM) is known to be a risk factor for HMs. However, collections of large families with multiple cases of varied disease types are relatively rare. We describe a collection of 12 families with dense aggregations of multiple HM subtypes. Cases were ascertained from a population based study conducted between 1972 and 1980 in Tasmania, Australia. Diagnoses were confirmed through review and re-examination of stored tissue, pathology reports, Tasmanian Cancer Registry and flow cytometry records. Family trees were generated and kinship coefficients were calculated for all pairs of affected individuals. 120 cases were found in these families. Cases diagnosed with chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL) demonstrated the most significantly increased aggregation (P < 0.0001). There was also significant evidence that those individuals diagnosed at an older age (>53 years), did not aggregate together in families with disease that presented at an earlier age (<20 years) (P = 0.009).

Cardiovascular risk scores in the prediction of subclinical atherosclerosis in young adults: evidence from the cardiovascular risk in a young Finns study.

AIM: To study the utility of risk scores in the prediction of subclinical atherosclerosis in young adults. METHODS AND RESULTS: Participants were 2204 healthy Finnish adults aged 24-39 years in 2001 from a population-based follow-up study Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns. We examined the performance of the Framingham, Reynolds, Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), PROCAM, and Finrisk cardiovascular risk scores to predict subclinical atherosclerosis, that is carotid artery intima-media thickness (IMT) and plaque, carotid artery distensibility (CDist), and brachial artery flow-mediated dilatation (FMD) 6 years later. In a 6-year prediction of high IMT (highest decile or plaque), areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) for baseline Finrisk (0.733), SCORE (0.726), PROCAM (0.712), and Reynolds (0.729) risk scores were similar as for Framingham risk score (0.728, P always ≥0.15). All risk scores had a similar discrimination in predicting low CDist (lowest decile) (0.652, 0.642, 0.639, 0.658, 0.652 respectively, P always ≥0.41). In the prediction of low FMD (lowest decile), Finrisk, PROCAM, Reynolds, and Framingham scores had similar AUCs (0.578, 0.594, 0.582, 0.568, P always ≥0.08) and SCORE discriminated slightly better (AUC=0.596, P<0.05). The prediction of subclinical outcomes was consistent when estimated from other statistical measures of discrimination, reclassification, and calibration. CONCLUSION: Cardiovascular disease risk scores had equal value in predicting subclinical atherosclerosis measured by IMT and CDist in young adults. SCORE was more accurate in predicting low FMD than Framingham risk score.

Analysis of the F2LR3 (PAR4) Single Nucleotide Polymorphism (rs773902) in an Indigenous Australian Population.

The F2RL3 gene encoding protease activated receptor 4 (PAR4) contains a single nucleotide variant, rs773902, that is functional. The resulting PAR4 variants, Thr120, and Ala120, are known to differently affect platelet reactivity to thrombin. Significant population differences in the frequency of the allele indicate it may be an important determinant in the ethnic differences that exist in thrombosis and hemostasis, and for patient outcomes to PAR antagonist anti-platelet therapies. Here we determined the frequency of rs773902 in an Indigenous Australian group comprising 467 individuals from the Tiwi Islands. These people experience high rates of renal disease that may be related to platelet and PAR4 function and are potential recipients of PAR-antagonist treatments. The rs773902 minor allele frequency (Thr120) in the Tiwi Islanders was 0.32, which is similar to European and Asian groups and substantially lower than Melanesians and some African groups. Logistic regression and allele distortion testing revealed no significant associations between the variant and several markers of renal function, as well as blood glucose and blood pressure. These findings suggest that rs773902 is not an important determinant for renal disease in this Indigenous Australian group. However, the relationships between rs773902 genotype and platelet and drug responsiveness in the Tiwi, and the allele frequency in other Indigenous Australian groups should be evaluated.

Cerebral small vessel disease genomics and its implications across the lifespan.

White matter hyperintensities (WMH) are the most common brain-imaging feature of cerebral small vessel disease (SVD), hypertension being the main known risk factor. Here, we identify 27 genome-wide loci for WMH-volume in a cohort of 50,970 older individuals, accounting for modification/confounding by hypertension. Aggregated WMH risk variants were associated with altered white matter integrity (p = 2.5×10-7) in brain images from 1,738 young healthy adults, providing insight into the lifetime impact of SVD genetic risk. Mendelian randomization suggested causal association of increasing WMH-volume with stroke, Alzheimer-type dementia, and of increasing blood pressure (BP) with larger WMH-volume, notably also in persons without clinical hypertension. Transcriptome-wide colocalization analyses showed association of WMH-volume with expression of 39 genes, of which four encode known drug targets. Finally, we provide insight into BP-independent biological pathways underlying SVD and suggest potential for genetic stratification of high-risk individuals and for genetically-informed prioritization of drug targets for prevention trials.

New Genetic Loci Associated With Chronic Kidney Disease in an Indigenous Australian Population.

The common occurrence of renal disease in Australian Aboriginal populations such as Tiwi Islanders may be determined by environmental and genetic factors. To explore genetic contributions, we performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of urinary albumin creatinine ratio (ACR) in a sample of 249 Tiwi individuals with genotype data from a 370K Affymetrix single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array. A principal component analysis (PCA) of the 249 individual Tiwi cohort and samples from 11 populations included in phase III of the HapMap Project indicated that Tiwi Islanders are a relatively distinct and unique population with no close genetic relationships to the other ethnic groups. After adjusting for age and sex, the proportion of ACR variance explained by the 370K SNPs was estimated to be 37% (using the software GCTA.31; likelihood ratio = 8.06, p-value = 0.002). The GWAS identified eight SNPs that were nominally significantly associated with ACR (p < 0.0005). A replication study of these SNPs was performed in an independent cohort of 497 individuals on the eight SNPs. Four of these SNPs were significantly associated with ACR in the replication sample (p < 0.05), rs4016189 located near the CRIM1 gene (p = 0.000751), rs443816 located in the gene encoding UGT2B11 (p = 0.022), rs6461901 located near the NFE2L3 gene, and rs1535656 located in the RAB14 gene. The SNP rs4016189 was still significant after adjusting for multiple testing. A structural equation model (SEM) demonstrated that the rs4016189 SNP was not associated with other phenotypes such as estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), diabetes, and blood pressure.

Interactive responses of primary producers and grazers to pollution on temperate rocky reefs.

Macroalgal beds provide important habitat structure and support primary production for rocky reef communities, but are increasingly degraded as a result of human pressures. Various sources of pollution can have both direct and interactive effects on stressed ecosystems. In particular, interactions involving invertebrate grazers could potentially weaken or strengthen the overall impact of pollution on macroalgal beds. Using a paired impact-control experimental design, we tested the effects of multiple pollution sources (fish farms, marinas, sewerage, and stormwater) on translocated and locally established algal assemblages, while also considering the influence of invertebrate grazers. Marinas directly affected algal assemblages and also reduced densities of amphipods and other invertebrate mesograzers. Fish farms and sewerage outfalls tended to directly increase local establishment of foliose and leathery algae without any indication of changes in herbivory. Overall, pollution impacts on algae did not appear to be strongly mediated by changes in grazer abundance. Instead, mesograzer abundance was closely linked to availability of more complex algal forms, with populations likely to decline concurrently with loss of complex algal habitats. Macrograzers, such as sea urchins, showed no signs of a negative impact from any pollution source; hence, the influence of this group on algal dynamics is probably persistent and independent of moderate pollution levels, potentially adding to the direct impacts of pollution on algal beds in urbanised environments.

BMI Trajectories Associated With Resolution of Elevated Youth BMI and Incident Adult Obesity.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Youth with high BMI who become nonobese adults have the same cardiovascular risk factor burden as those who were never obese. However, the early-life BMI trajectories for overweight or obese youth who avoid becoming obese adults have not been described. We aimed to determine and compare the young-childhood BMI trajectories of participants according to their BMI status in youth and adulthood. METHODS: Bayesian hierarchical piecewise regression modeling was used to analyze the BMI trajectories of 2717 young adults who had up to 8 measures of BMI from childhood (ages 3-18 years) to adulthood (ages 34-49 years). RESULTS: Compared with those with persistently high BMI, those who resolved their high youth BMI by adulthood had lower average BMI at age 6 years and slower rates of BMI change from young childhood. In addition, their BMI levels started to plateau at 16 years old for females and 21 years old for males, whereas the BMI of those whose high BMI persisted did not stabilize until 25 years old for male subjects and 27 years for female subjects. Compared with those youth who were not overweight or obese and who remained nonobese in adulthood, those who developed obesity had a higher BMI rate of change from 6 years old, and their BMI continued to increase linearly until age 30 years. CONCLUSIONS: Efforts to alter BMI trajectories for adult obesity should ideally commence before age 6 years. The natural resolution of high BMI starts in adolescence for males and early adulthood for females, suggesting a critical window for secondary prevention.

Adolescent exposure to high-dose estrogen and subsequent effects on lactation.

Treatment with high-dose estrogens has been used to reduce the adult height of tall girls for many years. Short-term side effects on the breast have been reported but there have been no studies to investigate whether there are long-term effects on lactation. This retrospective cohort study of 371 treated and 409 untreated women asked about breastfeeding history. After adjusting for maternal age at first live-birth, treated women (4.4%) were no more likely than untreated women (4.1%) to not commence breastfeeding (RR 1.13, 95% CI 0.50-2.52). After adjusting for age, there was no significant difference in the average duration of breastfeeding between treated (median 41.1 weeks) and untreated women (median 43.3 weeks) (p=0.77) for all live-births. Treated women were not significantly more likely to report physiological reasons for stopping breastfeeding than untreated women. Women treated with high-dose estrogens during adolescence appeared to be no different to untreated women in their ability to lactate.

Consistent multi-level trophic effects of marine reserve protection across northern New Zealand.

Through systematic Reef Life Survey censuses of rocky reef fishes, invertebrates and macroalgae at eight marine reserves across northern New Zealand and the Kermadec Islands, we investigated whether a system of no-take marine reserves generates consistent biodiversity outcomes. Ecological responses of reef assemblages to protection from fishing, including potential trophic cascades, were assessed using a control-impact design for the six marine reserves studied with associated reference sites, and also by comparing observations at reserve sites with predictions from random forest models that assume reserve locations are fished. Reserve sites were characterised by higher abundance and biomass of large fishes than fished sites, most notably for snapper Chrysophrys auratus, with forty-fold higher observed biomass inside relative to out. In agreement with conceptual models, significant reserve effects not only reflected direct interactions between fishing and targeted species (higher large fish biomass; higher snapper and lobster abundance), but also second order interactions (lower urchin abundance), third order interactions (higher kelp cover), and fourth order interactions (lower understory algal cover). Unexpectedly, we also found: (i) a consistent trend for higher (~20%) Ecklonia cover across reserves relative to nearby fished sites regardless of lobster and urchin density, (ii) an inconsistent response of crustose coralline algae to urchin density, (iii) low cover of other understory algae in marine reserves with few urchins, and (iv) more variable fish and benthic invertebrate communities at reserve relative to fished locations. Overall, reef food webs showed complex but consistent responses to protection from fishing in well-enforced temperate New Zealand marine reserves. The small proportion of the northeastern New Zealand coastal zone located within marine reserves (~0.2%) encompassed a disproportionately large representation of the full range of fish and benthic invertebrate biodiversity within this region.